Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 4-3 with 24 playoff points. This was almost exactly cutting off above .500 versus below .500.
Only 3 teams were above .500 and didn't make the field.
-- Team 257 -- 5A Marion 4-3 / 23
-- Team 258 -- 1A Bridgeport (Red Hill) 4-3 / 19
-- Team 259 -- 5A Noble/Bulls 4-3 / 18
-- Team 260/261 -- 5A Carmel 3-4 / 41
-- Team 260/261 -- 8A St. Ignatius 3-4 / 41
My adjustments....
Check the forfeits first. None that I noticed.
Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!
NO ADJUSTMENTS!
NOTES:
The classes "got smaller", if that makes sense. Bigger schools fell below the cut-off, and several schools jumped up into classes I've never seen them in before. DGN, Schaumburg, Glenbard East haven't ventured it 8A recently. Also in 8A but outside the bracket were Glenbard North, St. Charles East, and McHenry.
Another thing I've noticed.... not sure how to word it.... A lot of schools in the "lower" side of a double conference with better records than the more traditional winners in the "higher" divison. Addison Trail, Maine West, Plainfield South, and West Chicago outpacing Glenbard West, Maine South, Bolingbrook, and South Elgin. Makes sense that it happens, but feels like a theme this year.
** is the smallest team in the class
^^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Leyden at #1 Naperville Central
#17 Sandburg at #16 Minooka
#25 Warren at #8 Marist
#24 Maine South at #9 Edwardsville
#29 Huntley at #4 Oswego
#20 Naperville North at #13 York
#28 South Elgin at #5 West Aurora
#21 Downers Grove South at #12 Fremd
Lower Bracket
#31 Niles West at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Loyola at #15 Taft
#26 Belleville East at #7 Barrington
#23 Plainfield South at #10 Glenbard East
#30 Waubonsie Valley at #3 Lyons
#19 Schaumburg at #14 Downers Grove North** (2156)
#27 Homewood-Flossmoor at #6 Palatine
#22 Andrew at #11 Stevenson
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 West Chicago at #1 Libertyville** (1784)
#17 Pekin at #16 Prospect^^ (2155)
#25 Collinsville at #8 Normal
#24 Lincoln-Way West at #9 Hononegah
#29 Lincoln-Way Central at #4 Lincoln Park
#20 Hoffman Estates at #13 Maine West
#28 Guilford at #5 St. Charles North
#21 Rolling Meadows at #12 Bradley-Bourbannais
Lower Bracket
#31 Reavis at #2 Quincy
#18 Jacobs at #15 St. Rita
#26 Brother Rice at #7 Batavia
#23 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #10 Harlem
#30 Willowbrook at #3 Whitney Young
#19 Moline at #14 Mount Carmel
#27 Hersey at #6 Fenwick
#22 Shepard at #11 Addison Trail
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Senn at #1 Geneva
#9 Grayslake North ** (1289) #8 Glenbard South
#13 Riverside-Brookfield at #4 Antioch
#12 Lake Zurich at #5 Wauconda
#15 Deerfield at #2 Cary-Grove
#10 Fenton at #7 Lake Forest
#14 Grant^^ (1782) at #3 Belvidere North
#11 Kaneland at #6 Mather
Lower Bracket
#16 Eisenhower at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Normal West at #8 Washington
#13 Dunlap at #4 Kankakee
#12 Oak Forest at #5 Kennedy
#15 Centenniel at #2 Richards
#10 Springfield at #7 Glenwood
#14 Lemont at #3 Bloomington
#11 Crete-Monee at #6 Simeon
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Marmion at #1 Sycamore
#9 Burlington Central^^ (1285) #8 Prairie Ridge
#13 Perspectives/Leadership at #4 Woodstock North
#12 Westinghouse at #5 St. Laurence** (844)
#15 Sterling at #2 Nazareth
#10 Payton at #7 St. Francis
#14 Goode at #3 Rochelle
#11 Prosser at #6 Benet Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 East Peoria at #1 Peoria
#9 Highland #8 Joliet Catholic
#13 TF North at #4 Morris
#12 Centralia at #5 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#15 Jacksonville at #2 Morgan Park
#10 Corliss at #7 Metamora
#14 Tinley Park at #3 Triad
#11 Hillcrest at #6 Mahomet-Seymour
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Noble/Rauner at #1 Dixon
#9 Coal City #8 Boylan Catholic
#13 Marengo at #4 South Shore** (561)
#12 Sandwich at #5 DePaul
#15 Noble/Comer^^ (842) at #2 Sullivan
#10 Ag Science at #7 Richmond-Burton
#14 Johnsburg at #3 Manteno
#11 Clemente at #6 Wheaton Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Zion at #1 Breese Central
#9 Macomb #8 Columbia
#13 Geneseo at #4 Cahokia
#12 Effingham at #5 Murphysboro
#15 Lincoln at #2 Richland County
#10 Normal University at #7 Carterville
#14 Kewanee at #3 Waterloo
#11 Peo. Notre Dame at #6 Rochester
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Carver at #1 Byron
#9 Dyett at #8 King
#13 Oregon** (417) at #4 North Lawndale
#12 Herscher at #5 Princeton
#15 Prairie Central at #2 Monmouth-Roseville
#10 Phoenix^^ (559) at #7 Montini
#14 Stillman Valley at #3 Du-Pec Coop
#11 Peotone at #6 Marshall
Lower Bracket
#16 Harrisburg at #1 St. Joseph-Ogden
#9 Roxana at #8 New Berlin
#13 Fairfield at #4 Williamsville
#12Staunton at #5 DuQuoin
#15 Clinton at #2 Sullivan-Okaw Valley
#10 Tolono Unity at #7 Monticello
#14 Olympia at #3 Eureka
#11 Benton at #6 Greenville
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 4-3 with 24 playoff points. This was almost exactly cutting off above .500 versus below .500.
Only 3 teams were above .500 and didn't make the field.
-- Team 257 -- 5A Marion 4-3 / 23
-- Team 258 -- 1A Bridgeport (Red Hill) 4-3 / 19
-- Team 259 -- 5A Noble/Bulls 4-3 / 18
-- Team 260/261 -- 5A Carmel 3-4 / 41
-- Team 260/261 -- 8A St. Ignatius 3-4 / 41
My adjustments....
Check the forfeits first. None that I noticed.
Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!
NO ADJUSTMENTS!
NOTES:
The classes "got smaller", if that makes sense. Bigger schools fell below the cut-off, and several schools jumped up into classes I've never seen them in before. DGN, Schaumburg, Glenbard East haven't ventured it 8A recently. Also in 8A but outside the bracket were Glenbard North, St. Charles East, and McHenry.
Another thing I've noticed.... not sure how to word it.... A lot of schools in the "lower" side of a double conference with better records than the more traditional winners in the "higher" divison. Addison Trail, Maine West, Plainfield South, and West Chicago outpacing Glenbard West, Maine South, Bolingbrook, and South Elgin. Makes sense that it happens, but feels like a theme this year.
** is the smallest team in the class
^^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Leyden at #1 Naperville Central
#17 Sandburg at #16 Minooka
#25 Warren at #8 Marist
#24 Maine South at #9 Edwardsville
#29 Huntley at #4 Oswego
#20 Naperville North at #13 York
#28 South Elgin at #5 West Aurora
#21 Downers Grove South at #12 Fremd
Lower Bracket
#31 Niles West at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Loyola at #15 Taft
#26 Belleville East at #7 Barrington
#23 Plainfield South at #10 Glenbard East
#30 Waubonsie Valley at #3 Lyons
#19 Schaumburg at #14 Downers Grove North** (2156)
#27 Homewood-Flossmoor at #6 Palatine
#22 Andrew at #11 Stevenson
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 West Chicago at #1 Libertyville** (1784)
#17 Pekin at #16 Prospect^^ (2155)
#25 Collinsville at #8 Normal
#24 Lincoln-Way West at #9 Hononegah
#29 Lincoln-Way Central at #4 Lincoln Park
#20 Hoffman Estates at #13 Maine West
#28 Guilford at #5 St. Charles North
#21 Rolling Meadows at #12 Bradley-Bourbannais
Lower Bracket
#31 Reavis at #2 Quincy
#18 Jacobs at #15 St. Rita
#26 Brother Rice at #7 Batavia
#23 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #10 Harlem
#30 Willowbrook at #3 Whitney Young
#19 Moline at #14 Mount Carmel
#27 Hersey at #6 Fenwick
#22 Shepard at #11 Addison Trail
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Senn at #1 Geneva
#9 Grayslake North ** (1289) #8 Glenbard South
#13 Riverside-Brookfield at #4 Antioch
#12 Lake Zurich at #5 Wauconda
#15 Deerfield at #2 Cary-Grove
#10 Fenton at #7 Lake Forest
#14 Grant^^ (1782) at #3 Belvidere North
#11 Kaneland at #6 Mather
Lower Bracket
#16 Eisenhower at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Normal West at #8 Washington
#13 Dunlap at #4 Kankakee
#12 Oak Forest at #5 Kennedy
#15 Centenniel at #2 Richards
#10 Springfield at #7 Glenwood
#14 Lemont at #3 Bloomington
#11 Crete-Monee at #6 Simeon
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Marmion at #1 Sycamore
#9 Burlington Central^^ (1285) #8 Prairie Ridge
#13 Perspectives/Leadership at #4 Woodstock North
#12 Westinghouse at #5 St. Laurence** (844)
#15 Sterling at #2 Nazareth
#10 Payton at #7 St. Francis
#14 Goode at #3 Rochelle
#11 Prosser at #6 Benet Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 East Peoria at #1 Peoria
#9 Highland #8 Joliet Catholic
#13 TF North at #4 Morris
#12 Centralia at #5 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#15 Jacksonville at #2 Morgan Park
#10 Corliss at #7 Metamora
#14 Tinley Park at #3 Triad
#11 Hillcrest at #6 Mahomet-Seymour
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Noble/Rauner at #1 Dixon
#9 Coal City #8 Boylan Catholic
#13 Marengo at #4 South Shore** (561)
#12 Sandwich at #5 DePaul
#15 Noble/Comer^^ (842) at #2 Sullivan
#10 Ag Science at #7 Richmond-Burton
#14 Johnsburg at #3 Manteno
#11 Clemente at #6 Wheaton Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Zion at #1 Breese Central
#9 Macomb #8 Columbia
#13 Geneseo at #4 Cahokia
#12 Effingham at #5 Murphysboro
#15 Lincoln at #2 Richland County
#10 Normal University at #7 Carterville
#14 Kewanee at #3 Waterloo
#11 Peo. Notre Dame at #6 Rochester
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Carver at #1 Byron
#9 Dyett at #8 King
#13 Oregon** (417) at #4 North Lawndale
#12 Herscher at #5 Princeton
#15 Prairie Central at #2 Monmouth-Roseville
#10 Phoenix^^ (559) at #7 Montini
#14 Stillman Valley at #3 Du-Pec Coop
#11 Peotone at #6 Marshall
Lower Bracket
#16 Harrisburg at #1 St. Joseph-Ogden
#9 Roxana at #8 New Berlin
#13 Fairfield at #4 Williamsville
#12Staunton at #5 DuQuoin
#15 Clinton at #2 Sullivan-Okaw Valley
#10 Tolono Unity at #7 Monticello
#14 Olympia at #3 Eureka
#11 Benton at #6 Greenville
