Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments.....
The CPS Illini-Second City Conference did not have a representative in the playoff field. I inserted their conference leader, Chicago Military Academy/Bronzeville (4-2/18), into 4A. This gave us 257 teams.
I need to eliminate 1 team. 3 teams were tied at 4-3/25 at the bottom of the playoff field. They are Back of the Yards (5A), Sullivan (4A), and Red Bud (2A). One has to go!
The first two tie-breakers, of course, are wins and playoff points.
The THIRD tie-breaker is total wins by defeated opponents. Sullivan has 7. Back of the Yards and Red Bud have 5. Sullivan is safe, and slots in as team 255.
The FOURTH tie-breaker is head-to-head. This doesn't apply to these two teams.
The FIFTH tie-breaker is number of playoff teams faced. Back of the Yards and Red Bud have both played 2 teams in this playoff field.
The SIXTH tie-breaker is number of wins by teams played that qualified for the playoffs. Back of the Yards playoff foes have combined for 10 wins... Red Bud's only have 9. Buh-bye, Red Bud!
Back of the Yards, the most Chicago-sounding school ever, is team 256.
By the way, the SEVENTH tie-breaker is points allowed in games against teams that qualified for the playoffs. I probably would've skipped that step and moved on to the EIGHTH tie-breaker... COIN FLIP!
Now I just need to adjust the classes to balance them at 32 teams each. We put Bronzeville into 4A, Kewanee slides down to 3A, Alton Marquette slides down to 2A, and Red Bud is removed from 2A and the entire playoff field.
THAT'S IT!
Random Thoughts:
-Some big teams obviously lost in week 7 and fell out of the 256, and several teams scooted up to a bigger class... notably Benet and East St. Louis.
-Bones... Raider Nation swaps out Taft for Maine South. As a guy who grew up halfway between those two schools, I feel obligated to let you know that Maine South would be a smidge tougher to beat. Sorry pal.
-Loyola @ Glenbard East, yikes. Reminds me of JCA @ EP 2012. I should have a little award or nickname for the most interesting fake matchup like these each week. How about "The Powerhouse @ Paper Tiger Fake Game of Week If The Playoffs Started Today". Short and sweet, Either way, Oswego can pack their bags for Wilmette the first weekend of November.
-Curie @ LWE. For the CPS teams that aren't exceptional like Phillips, maybe there should be a "lack of success" factor. Multiply by .65. Would it really matter if Taft and Curie were in 6A instead of 8A? My 2004 idea that factored roster size and/or program size into your classification was roundly mocked. I think Driscoll had 250 students in school with a varsity roster of 70, and Morton had 7500 students in school with a varsity roster of 22. Which school should be playing Winnebago in the post-season?
-5A and 6A have enough Chicagoland in the lower bracket, that an upset or two could wipe out anything south of the ICE conference by the semi's.
-I'm skipping the biggest/smallest schools in each class for now because wifey just got home with groceries (read, cookies and candy). Maybe I'll edit them in later.
"How the hell could you rank Naz behind Hersey and Meadows? You're crazy!"
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Downers Grove South at #1 Notre Dame
#17 Conant at #16 Bartlett
#25 Glenbard North at #8 Hinsdale Central
#24 Brother Rice at #9 Homewood-Flossmoor
#29 Curie at #4 Lincoln-Way East
#20 Edwardsville at #13 Huntley
#28 Stevenson at #5 South Elgin
#21 Taft at #12 St. Charles East
Lower Bracket
#31 Plainfield South at #2 Oswego
#18 Loyola at #15 Glenbard East
#26 Barrington at #7 Glenbard West
#23 Plainfield North at #10 Benet Academy
#30 Downers Grove North at #3 Minooka
#19 Fremd at #14 Neuqua Valley
#27 Oswego East at #6 Warren
#22 Maine South at #11 Bolingbrook
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Eisenhower at #1 Mount Carmel
#17 Auburn at #16 Hononegah
#25 Moline at #8 Andrew
#24 Lincoln Park at #9 Willowbrook
#29 Lake Zurich at #4 Nazareth
#20 Proviso East at #13 Prospect
#28 TF South at #5 Phillips
#21 Whitney Young at #12 Batavia
Lower Bracket
#31 Quincy at #2 Hersey
#18 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #15 DeKalb
#26 Pekin at #7 Normal
#23 Lincoln-Way West at #10 Maine West
#30 Highland Park at #3 Rolling Meadows
#19 Thornton at #14 Harlem
#27 St. Charles North at #6 Yorkville
#22 Hoffman Estates at #11 Grant
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Lemont
#9 Mather #8 Kaneland
#13 Riverside-Brookfield at #4 Cary-Grove
#12 Lakes at #5 Prairie Ridge
#15 Crystal Lake Central at #2 Sycamore
#10 Deerfield at #7 Kenwood
#14 Lake Forest at #3 Richards
#11 Belvidere North at #6 Antioch
Lower Bracket
#16 Danville at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Shepard at #8 Simeon
#13 Washington at #4 Dunlap
#12 Bremen at #5 Peoria
#15 Morgan Park at #2 Glenwood
#10 Thornwood at #7 Normal West
#14 Rock Island at #3 Crete-Monee
#11 Springfield at #6 Providence
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Back of the Yards at #1 Sterling
#9 St. Rita #8 Elmwood Park
#13 Evergreen Park at #4 Amundson
#12 Freeport at #5 Montini
#15 CVS at #2 Boylan Catholic
#10 St. Laurence at #7 Marmion Academy
#14 Woodstock North at #3 Payton
#11 Fenwick at #6 Glenbard South
Lower Bracket
#16 Marian Catholic at #1 Marion
#9 Cahokia #8 Morton
#13 Jacksonville at #4 Triad
#12 MacArthur at #5 Carbondale
#15 Mascoutah at #2 Hillcrest
#10 Highland at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #3 Kankakee
#11 Joliet Catholic at #6 Morris
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Chgo Military Academy/Bronzeville at #1 Coal City
#9 Bishop McNamara #8 Agricultural Science
#13 Hyde Park at #4 Genoa-Kingston
#12 Dixon at #5 Richmond-Burton
#15 Sullivan at #2 Immaculate Conception
#10 St. Viator at #7 Marengo
#14 Marian Central Catholic at #3 Stillman Valley
#11 Wheaton Academy at #6 St. Francis
Lower Bracket
#16 Canton at #1 Mount Zion
#9 Murphysboro #8 Richland County
#13 Peo Notre Dame at #4 Rochester
#12 Salem at #5 Columbia
#15 Clinton at #2 Effingham
#10 Prairie Central at #7 Civic Memorial
#14 Freeburg at #3 Illinois Valley Central
#11 Taylorville at #6 Paris
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Clark at #1 Wilmington
#9 Peotone #8 Dunbar
#13 Alleman at #4 Harlan
#12 Seneca at #5 Byron
#15 Kewanee at #2 Farmington
#10 Hall at #7 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#14 Lisle at #3 Princeton
#11 Carver at #6 Eureka
Lower Bracket
#16 Newton at #1 Beardstown
#9 Mt. Carmel at #8 Greenville
#13 North Mac at #4 Vandalia
#12 Carlinville at #5 Du Quoin
#15 Wood River-East Alton at #2 Williamsville
#10 Monticello at #7 Unity
#14 St. Joseph-Ogden at #3 Fairfield
#11 Frankfort at #6 Benton
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments.....
The CPS Illini-Second City Conference did not have a representative in the playoff field. I inserted their conference leader, Chicago Military Academy/Bronzeville (4-2/18), into 4A. This gave us 257 teams.
I need to eliminate 1 team. 3 teams were tied at 4-3/25 at the bottom of the playoff field. They are Back of the Yards (5A), Sullivan (4A), and Red Bud (2A). One has to go!
The first two tie-breakers, of course, are wins and playoff points.
The THIRD tie-breaker is total wins by defeated opponents. Sullivan has 7. Back of the Yards and Red Bud have 5. Sullivan is safe, and slots in as team 255.
The FOURTH tie-breaker is head-to-head. This doesn't apply to these two teams.
The FIFTH tie-breaker is number of playoff teams faced. Back of the Yards and Red Bud have both played 2 teams in this playoff field.
The SIXTH tie-breaker is number of wins by teams played that qualified for the playoffs. Back of the Yards playoff foes have combined for 10 wins... Red Bud's only have 9. Buh-bye, Red Bud!
Back of the Yards, the most Chicago-sounding school ever, is team 256.
By the way, the SEVENTH tie-breaker is points allowed in games against teams that qualified for the playoffs. I probably would've skipped that step and moved on to the EIGHTH tie-breaker... COIN FLIP!
Now I just need to adjust the classes to balance them at 32 teams each. We put Bronzeville into 4A, Kewanee slides down to 3A, Alton Marquette slides down to 2A, and Red Bud is removed from 2A and the entire playoff field.
THAT'S IT!
Random Thoughts:
-Some big teams obviously lost in week 7 and fell out of the 256, and several teams scooted up to a bigger class... notably Benet and East St. Louis.
-Bones... Raider Nation swaps out Taft for Maine South. As a guy who grew up halfway between those two schools, I feel obligated to let you know that Maine South would be a smidge tougher to beat. Sorry pal.
-Loyola @ Glenbard East, yikes. Reminds me of JCA @ EP 2012. I should have a little award or nickname for the most interesting fake matchup like these each week. How about "The Powerhouse @ Paper Tiger Fake Game of Week If The Playoffs Started Today". Short and sweet, Either way, Oswego can pack their bags for Wilmette the first weekend of November.
-Curie @ LWE. For the CPS teams that aren't exceptional like Phillips, maybe there should be a "lack of success" factor. Multiply by .65. Would it really matter if Taft and Curie were in 6A instead of 8A? My 2004 idea that factored roster size and/or program size into your classification was roundly mocked. I think Driscoll had 250 students in school with a varsity roster of 70, and Morton had 7500 students in school with a varsity roster of 22. Which school should be playing Winnebago in the post-season?
-5A and 6A have enough Chicagoland in the lower bracket, that an upset or two could wipe out anything south of the ICE conference by the semi's.
-I'm skipping the biggest/smallest schools in each class for now because wifey just got home with groceries (read, cookies and candy). Maybe I'll edit them in later.
"How the hell could you rank Naz behind Hersey and Meadows? You're crazy!"
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Downers Grove South at #1 Notre Dame
#17 Conant at #16 Bartlett
#25 Glenbard North at #8 Hinsdale Central
#24 Brother Rice at #9 Homewood-Flossmoor
#29 Curie at #4 Lincoln-Way East
#20 Edwardsville at #13 Huntley
#28 Stevenson at #5 South Elgin
#21 Taft at #12 St. Charles East
Lower Bracket
#31 Plainfield South at #2 Oswego
#18 Loyola at #15 Glenbard East
#26 Barrington at #7 Glenbard West
#23 Plainfield North at #10 Benet Academy
#30 Downers Grove North at #3 Minooka
#19 Fremd at #14 Neuqua Valley
#27 Oswego East at #6 Warren
#22 Maine South at #11 Bolingbrook
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Eisenhower at #1 Mount Carmel
#17 Auburn at #16 Hononegah
#25 Moline at #8 Andrew
#24 Lincoln Park at #9 Willowbrook
#29 Lake Zurich at #4 Nazareth
#20 Proviso East at #13 Prospect
#28 TF South at #5 Phillips
#21 Whitney Young at #12 Batavia
Lower Bracket
#31 Quincy at #2 Hersey
#18 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #15 DeKalb
#26 Pekin at #7 Normal
#23 Lincoln-Way West at #10 Maine West
#30 Highland Park at #3 Rolling Meadows
#19 Thornton at #14 Harlem
#27 St. Charles North at #6 Yorkville
#22 Hoffman Estates at #11 Grant
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Lemont
#9 Mather #8 Kaneland
#13 Riverside-Brookfield at #4 Cary-Grove
#12 Lakes at #5 Prairie Ridge
#15 Crystal Lake Central at #2 Sycamore
#10 Deerfield at #7 Kenwood
#14 Lake Forest at #3 Richards
#11 Belvidere North at #6 Antioch
Lower Bracket
#16 Danville at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Shepard at #8 Simeon
#13 Washington at #4 Dunlap
#12 Bremen at #5 Peoria
#15 Morgan Park at #2 Glenwood
#10 Thornwood at #7 Normal West
#14 Rock Island at #3 Crete-Monee
#11 Springfield at #6 Providence
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Back of the Yards at #1 Sterling
#9 St. Rita #8 Elmwood Park
#13 Evergreen Park at #4 Amundson
#12 Freeport at #5 Montini
#15 CVS at #2 Boylan Catholic
#10 St. Laurence at #7 Marmion Academy
#14 Woodstock North at #3 Payton
#11 Fenwick at #6 Glenbard South
Lower Bracket
#16 Marian Catholic at #1 Marion
#9 Cahokia #8 Morton
#13 Jacksonville at #4 Triad
#12 MacArthur at #5 Carbondale
#15 Mascoutah at #2 Hillcrest
#10 Highland at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #3 Kankakee
#11 Joliet Catholic at #6 Morris
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Chgo Military Academy/Bronzeville at #1 Coal City
#9 Bishop McNamara #8 Agricultural Science
#13 Hyde Park at #4 Genoa-Kingston
#12 Dixon at #5 Richmond-Burton
#15 Sullivan at #2 Immaculate Conception
#10 St. Viator at #7 Marengo
#14 Marian Central Catholic at #3 Stillman Valley
#11 Wheaton Academy at #6 St. Francis
Lower Bracket
#16 Canton at #1 Mount Zion
#9 Murphysboro #8 Richland County
#13 Peo Notre Dame at #4 Rochester
#12 Salem at #5 Columbia
#15 Clinton at #2 Effingham
#10 Prairie Central at #7 Civic Memorial
#14 Freeburg at #3 Illinois Valley Central
#11 Taylorville at #6 Paris
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Clark at #1 Wilmington
#9 Peotone #8 Dunbar
#13 Alleman at #4 Harlan
#12 Seneca at #5 Byron
#15 Kewanee at #2 Farmington
#10 Hall at #7 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#14 Lisle at #3 Princeton
#11 Carver at #6 Eureka
Lower Bracket
#16 Newton at #1 Beardstown
#9 Mt. Carmel at #8 Greenville
#13 North Mac at #4 Vandalia
#12 Carlinville at #5 Du Quoin
#15 Wood River-East Alton at #2 Williamsville
#10 Monticello at #7 Unity
#14 St. Joseph-Ogden at #3 Fairfield
#11 Frankfort at #6 Benton
