Football Enrollment

[Snetsrak61]

Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.

Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.

Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.

Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024

Class	Current Range	FE Range
1A	(0 - 292.5)	(220 - 325)
2A	(296.5 - 403.5)	(325 - 436)
3A	(406.5 - 542.5)	(439 - 580)
4A	(553 - 844)	(581 - 997)
5A	(848 - 1,272.5),	(1,017 - 1,373)
6A	(1,723 - 1,802)	(1,377 - 1,666)
7A	(1,604 - 2,156)	(1,666 - 2,173)
8A	(2,190 +)	(2,190 +)

Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)

Classes to follow;

 

[Snetsrak61]

Class 1A
(we're seeding everyone 1-32, obviously)

1 - LeRoy vs. 32 - Moweaqua (Central A & M)

2 - Lena (L.-Winslow) vs. 31 -Nokomis

3 - Sullivan [Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop] vs. 30 - Catlin (Salt Fork)

4 - Bismarck (B.-Henning-Rossville-Alvin) vs. 29 - Fithian (Oakwood)

5 - Pecatonica [Du-Pec Coop] vs. 28 - Galena (H.S.)

6 - Hardin (Calhoun) [Coop] vs. 27 - Jacksonville (Routt) [Coop]

7 - Camp Point (Central) vs. 26 - Mt. Sterling (Brown County)

8 - Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) vs. 25 - Tuscola

9 - Gibson City (Melvin-Sibley) vs. 24 - Bridgeport (Red Hill)

10 - Momence vs. 23 - Stockton

11 - Rushville (R.-Industry) vs. 22 - Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop]

12 - Toulon (Stark County) vs. 21 - Westville

13 - Lanark (Eastland) [Eastland-Pearl City Coop] vs. 20 - Carrollton

14 - Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop] vs. 19 - Winchester [West Central Coop]

15 - Toledo (Cumberland) vs. 18 - Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-Wethersfield Coop]

16 - Warrensburg (W.-Latham) vs. 17 - Princeville

 

[Snetsrak61]

2A

1 - Farmington vs. 32 - Dupo

2 - Johnston City vs. 31 -Mackinaw (Deer Creek)

3 - Williamsville vs. 30 - Kewanee (H.S.)

4 - Downs (Tri-Valley) vs. 29 - Red Bud

5 - Maroa (M.-Forsyth) vs. 28 - Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]

6 - Greenville vs. 27 - Carlinville

7 - Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop] vs. 26 - Clifton (Central)

8 - Casey (Westfield) vs. 25 - Ottawa (Marquette)

9 - Chester vs. 24 - Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop]

10 - Eureka vs. 23 - Stanford (Olympia)

11 - Seneca vs. 22 - Fairfield

12 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic) vs. 21 - Flora

13 - Taylor Ridge (Rockridge) vs. 20 - Carthage (Illini West)

14 - Sesser (Valier) [Coop] vs. 19 - Shelbyville

15 - Carmi (White County) vs. 18 - El Paso (Gridley)

16 - New Berlin [Coop] vs. 17 - Macomb

 

[Snetsrak61]

3A

1 - Byron vs. 32 - West Frankfort (Frankfort)

2 - St. Joseph (Ogden) vs. 31 -Aurora (Christian)

3 - Wilmington vs. 30 - Mt. Carmel

4 - Olney (Richland County) vs. 29 - Fairbury (Prairie Central)

5 - Dixon (H.S.) vs. 28 - Stillman Valley

6 - Princeton vs. 27 - Bloomington (Central Catholic)

7 - Monmouth (M.-Roseville) vs. 26 - Genoa (G.-Kingston)

8 - Nashville vs. 25 - Oregon

9 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) vs. 24 - Virden (North Mac)

10 - Pana (H.S.) vs. 23 - Rockford (Lutheran)

11 - Vandalia vs. 22 - Paxton (Buckley-Loda)

12 - Chicago (Kennedy) vs. 21 - DuQuoin (H.S.)

13 - Carterville vs. 20 - Peotone

14 - Monticello vs. 19 - Benton

15 - Manteno vs. 18 - Tolono (Unity)

16 - Coal City vs. 17 - Murphysboro

 

[Snetsrak61]

4A
(rest to come tomorrow)

1 - Chicago (Sullivan) vs. 32 - Chicago (Noble/Bulls)

2 - Breese (Central) vs. 31 -Harrisburg

3 - Chicago (South Shore) vs. 30 - Chicago (Senn)

4 - Waterloo (H.S.) vs. 29 - Decatur (St. Teresa)

5 - Chicago (Marshall) [Coop] vs. 28 - Chicago (Goode)

6 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian) vs. 27 - Taylorville

7 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter) vs. 26 - Marengo

8 - Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. 25 - Chicago (C. Hope Academy)

9 - Mahomet (Seymour) vs. 24 - Sandwich

10 - Chicago (Agricultural Science) vs. 23 - Chicago (Curie)

11 - Chicago (Simeon) vs. 22 - Jacksonville (H.S.)

12 - Woodstock (North) vs. 21 - Mt. Zion

13 - Roxana vs. 20 - Chicago (Clemente)

14 - Highland vs. 19 - Johnsburg

15 - Chicago (Corliss) [Coop] vs. 18 - Chicago (Prosser)

16 - Columbia vs. 17 - Chicago (Mather)

 

[Snetsrak61]

Class 5A

1 - Sycamore (H.S.) vs. 32 - Chicago (Kenwood)

2 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic) vs. 31 -Aurora (Marmion Academy)

3 - Quincy (Notre Dame) vs. 30 - Springfield (H.S.)

4 - Normal (Community) vs. 29 - Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop]

5 - Rochelle vs. 28 - Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)

6 - Chicago (Lincoln Park) vs. 27 - Collinsville

7 - Rochester vs. 26 - Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)

8 - Chatham (Glenwood) vs. 25 - Maple Park (Kaneland)

9 - Bloomington (H.S.) vs. 24 - Morris

10 - Peoria (H.S.) vs. 23 - Marion (H.S.)

11 - Washington vs. 22 - Dunlap

12 - Cahokia (H.S.) vs. 21 - Chicago (King)

13 - Pekin vs. 20 - Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North)

14 - Wauconda vs. 19 - Metamora

15 - Troy (Triad) vs. 18 - Centralia (H.S.)

16 - Chicago (Dyett) vs. 17 - Normal (University)

 

[CIMRY90]

I noted a few 6A teams have dropped down to 5A due to their football enrollment being less than their actual enrollment.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I noted a few 6A teams have dropped down to 5A due to their football enrollment being less than their actual enrollment.

I'll post a full list summarizing who changed classes at the end (for qualifiers and non qualifiers alike). Gotta do a little more data manipulation on that though. Maybe not wrap up til tomorrow.

 

[DeanOfSelection]

I always liked FE since it placed teams in the class representative of their schedule.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I always liked FE since it placed teams in the class representative of their schedule.

It was the only redeeming characteristic of districts proposal too. You'd qualify for playoff classification based on the character of the schools you play.

So yea, football enrollment helps nudge that direction. And it's very easy to administer and doesn't come with all the negatives of districts. With a little more complexity I think you could additionally do some conference multiplying (for ESCC/CCL but also some of the stronger/weaker public conferences). Could also make seeding follow more of a strength of schedule logic in a fairly impartial way too.

 

[ramblinman]

Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.

Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.

Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.

Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024

Class	Current Range	FE Range
1A	(0 - 292.5)	(220 - 325)
2A	(296.5 - 403.5)	(325 - 436)
3A	(406.5 - 542.5)	(439 - 580)
4A	(553 - 844)	(581 - 997)
5A	(848 - 1,272.5),	(1,017 - 1,373)
6A	(1,723 - 1,802)	(1,377 - 1,666)
7A	(1,604 - 2,156)	(1,666 - 2,173)
8A	(2,190 +)	(2,190 +)

Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)

Classes to follow;

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

I'd expect Loyola would still be allowed to opt up and would.

GOOD that ESL can stick it to their conference mates who are powerless to stop them.

CCL/ESCC might need a carve out to handle differently. Not sure any other conference spans so many classes so nearly everyone just gets pulled to 6A/7A as a result... Could be tweaked, I'm sure.

Obviously no system is perfect. There's fair criticisms for FE enrollment and I think the process for extreme outliers could be looked at. Like perhaps actual enrollmemt to FE could be capped at a % +/- or number of classes climbed/descended.

All that said I think it would be vastly preferable to straight enrollment.

 

[gobears25]

would it be easy to run the same numbers removing the highest and lowest enrollment opponent? i'd be interested to see how much one big outlier could be affecting certain schools.

 

[Snetsrak61]

would it be easy to run the same numbers removing the highest and lowest enrollment opponent? i'd be interested to see how much one big outlier could be affecting certain schools.

These numbers are with top and bottom eliminated.

 

[gobears25]

These numbers are with top and bottom eliminated.

if only i could read, thanks 😂

 

[crusader_of_90]

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

When FBE was first being discussed it was called the Althoff rule. As Coach Schott always said, we play the best we can. No one seems to mind when we go 5-4 and miss the playoffs.

 

[Snetsrak61]

6A

1 - Chicago (Whitney Young) vs. 32 - Summit (Argo)

2 - Quincy (Sr.) vs. 31 -Geneseo

3 - Chicago (Marist) vs. 30 - Tinley Park (H.S.)

4 - Lombard (Glenbard East) vs. 29 - Chicago (Payton)

5 - Rockton (Hononegah) vs. 28 - Sterling (H.S.)

6 - Belvidere (North) vs. 27 - Huntley

7 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy) vs. 26 - Freeport (H.S.)

8 - Wheaton (St. Francis) vs. 25 - Peoria (Notre Dame)

9 - Chicago (St. Rita) vs. 24 - Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)

10 - Lombard (Montini) vs. 23 - Burbank (St. Laurence)

11 - Normal (Community West) vs. 22 - Oak Forest

12 - Machesney Park (Harlem) vs. 21 - Fox Lake (Grant)

13 - Moline (H.S.) vs. 20 - Rockford (Guilford)

14 - Antioch vs. 19 - Chicago (DePaul)

15 - Grayslake (North) vs. 18 - Lisle (Benet Academy)

16 - Palos Heights (Shepard) vs. 17 - Lemont (H.S.)

 

[Snetsrak61]

7A

1 - Cary (Grove) vs. 32 - Skokie (Niles West)

2 - St. Charles (North) vs. 31 -Joliet (West)

3 - Oak Lawn (Richards) vs. 30 - Rolling Meadows

4 - Batavia vs. 29 - Rockford (Boylan Catholic)

5 - Geneva vs. 28 - Chicago (Amundsen)

6 - Kankakee (Sr.) vs. 27 - Wheaton (Warrenville South)

7 - Palatine (Fremd) vs. 26 - Bensenville (Fenton)

8 - Chicago (Morgan Park) vs. 25 - West Chicago (H.S.)

9 - Des Plaines (Maine West) vs. 24 - Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)

10 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy) vs. 23 - Hoffman Estates (H.S.)

11 - Oak Park (Fenwick) vs. 22 - Crete (Monee)

12 - Algonquin (Jacobs) vs. 21 - Belleville (East)

13 - Burlington (Central) vs. 20 - Chicago (Brother Rice)

14 - Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge) vs. 19 - Edwardsville (H.S.)

15 - Chicago (Taft) vs. 18 - Joliet (Catholic Academy)

16 - Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais) vs. 17 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)

 

[Snetsrak61]

8A

1 - Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) vs. 32 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)

2 - LaGrange (Lyons) vs. 31 -Deerfield (H.S.)

3 - Oswego (H.S.) vs. 30 - Glenview (Glenbrook South)

4 - Aurora (West Aurora) vs. 29 - Gurnee (Warren)

5 - Palatine (H.S.) vs. 28 - Schaumburg (H.S.)

6 - Naperville (Central) vs. 27 - Orland Park (Sandburg)

7 - East St. Louis (Sr.) vs. 26 - Villa Park (Willowbrook)

8 - Libertyville vs. 25 - Tinley Park (Andrew)

9 - Lincolnshire (Stevenson) vs. 24 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central)

10 - Downers Grove (North) vs. 23 - South Elgin

11 - Barrington vs. 22 - Arlington Heights (Hersey)

12 - Naperville (North) vs. 21 - Park Ridge (Maine South)

13 - Elmhurst (York) vs. 20 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)

14 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) vs. 19 - Plainfield (South)

15 - Downers Grove (South) vs. 18 - Addison (A. Trail)

16 - Lake Forest (H.S.) vs. 17 - Minooka