Expert? NCAA Tournament picks

[MC63]

I don't follow college basketball, but I love to play the bracket pools.

While I have little personal knowledge here, I did some research -- and reviewed the picks and comments of several so-called experts.

Of the four who made picks in all games, both Loyola and South Dakota State (the Jackrabbits - how can you not love that name?) were unanimous choices to win their openers (and at least one more game). Alabama was a unanimous choice to lose to its play-in opponent (Notre Dame or Rutgers). Michigan and Michigan State each get 50-50 chances in game one. Illinois was picked by three of the four, but all expect a close game.

A survey of final four picks (by 1twelve experts) showed Arizona over Gonzaga (very, very close) for the championship, while Kentucky and Iowa were runners-up. (Kansas, Texas Tech and Tennessee were favorites to get to Saturday, as well).

Please don't bet any money on this information. I used the term "expert" loosely.If you lose any dough, you've been warned.

I'm hoping that Gonzaga wins it all, and that Chattanooga, Loyola and South Dakota State do well..

 

[Alexander32]

Here is some historical perspective.

Gonzaga has played in two championship games within the last five years, so they have a legitimate chance of winning it. Still, they are not a prohibitive favorite. This team seems to be about one or two points worse than the two teams that made it to the championship game. They entered the tournament with a record of 32-1 in 2017 and 26-0 in 2021. Both of those teams had a scoring margin of roughly +23.5 points. This year they enter the tournament with a record of 26-3 and a scoring margin of roughly +22.5.

Over the course of the last 20 tournaments the eventual champion had six or fewer losses 17 times, or 85% of the time. Looking only at teams from the top eight conferences, (which have produced 100% of the last 20 champions), that suggests the contenders this year are Arizona (31-3), Gonzaga (26-3), Houston (29-5), Auburn (27-5), Kansas (28-6), Duke (28-6), and Baylor (26-6). Given that the odds makers have Kentucky (26-7) at the third lowest odds, it would probably be wise to add them as an eighth contender. Four or five of these teams will likely make it to the quarterfinals (elite eight).

Looking only at teams from the six major conferences, [which would be the Power Five football conferences plus the Big East], the eventual basketball national champion leads the nation in scoring margin about 25% of the time. Therefore, this team should normally be the favorite going into any tournament at odds of about 3:1. That team this year is Arizona. However, since the Pac-12 last won a national championship way back in 1997, Arizona is probably no better than a 4:1 favorite. That would, though, still make them the favorite.

File this under "predictions sure to go wrong", but my final four is Arizona (champion), Gonzaga (runner-up), Auburn and Kentucky.

 

[mullin17]

Did you know....Gonzaga had a football team until 1941.
They then built the library on the football field.....too bad.

 

[UlbKA91]

Did you know....Gonzaga had a football team until 1941.
They then built the library on the football field.....too bad.

Would have been a glut of NCAA programs in eastern Washington...plus Wazzu and Idaho are nearly the same physical distance apart as Mount Carmel and Hyde Park HS (as is EMU and Ann Arbor).

 

[whitesox05]

Did you know....Gonzaga had a football team until 1941.
They then built the library on the football field.....too bad.

Priorities...

I remember people talking about snow days on here, and snow days were good, but I thought the NCAA Tournament days off were the best... I always found school went on just fine without me.

 

[NNFAN]

Down goes #2 Kentucky!!! Congrats #15 St. Peter's!! Yippie! 🤗

 

[brucealmighy]

Down goes #2 Kentucky!!! Congrats #15 St. Peter's!! Yippie! 🤗

Catholic schools with their recruiting advantage

 

[ClownBaby]

Great showing by the Illini, two B10 championships in a row and still unable to win a second round game in the tourney. Its amazing how average of a program they are.

 

[pjjp]

Great showing by the Illini, two B10 championships in a row and still unable to win a second round game in the tourney. Its amazing how average of a program they are.

Lost to a more talented team this year. Bad loss against Loyola last year.

 

[ClownBaby]

Lost to a more talented team this year. Bad loss against Loyola last year.

They were embarrassingly bad and lucky to get by Chattanooga on Friday.

 

[pjjp]

They were embarrassingly bad and lucky to get by Chattanooga on Friday.

No doubt.

 

[brucealmighy]

They were embarrassingly bad and lucky to get by Chattanooga on Friday.

Never good for a jump shooting team to not be able make shots. Coach could not get the mix of scorers and good defenders correct. The guys that were good at defense were left wide open and didn’t make teams pay. The guys that were supposed to be scorers were ice cold and got exposed defensively. Grandsons injury was a killer because he was one that could do both and seemingly the only one that could make an entry pass.

 

[all4theillini]

Great showing by the Illini, two B10 championships in a row and still unable to win a second round game in the tourney. Its amazing how average of a program they are.

Thanks for your expert analysis, dumbass.

 

[ClownBaby]

Thanks for your expert analysis, dumbass.

It’s not my problem Illini fans love to say they are a basketball school but over the course of the last 30-40 years they have been out performed by Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in the NCAA tourney. Think about being a basketball school and being the 6th best performing team in your conference.

 

[brucealmighy]

It’s not my problem Illini fans love to say they are a basketball school but over the course of the last 30-40 years they have been out performed by Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in the NCAA tourney. Think about being a basketball school and being the 6th best performing team in your conference.

6th best is much better than their performance in football.

 

[Alexander32]

It’s not my problem Illini fans love to say they are a basketball school but over the course of the last 30-40 years they have been out performed by Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in the NCAA tourney. Think about being a basketball school and being the 6th best performing team in your conference.

Depending on how it is measured one might say they are also behind Purdue and Maryland, and therefore are the eighth best program in the conference. So yes, that makes them pretty average in a 14-team conference. Still, that is better than their football results so in a relative sense one can claim they are a basketball school. They play hard for the current coach so I think the program is in good hands... as long as he doesn't run into recruiting violations.

 

[brucealmighy]

Depending on how it is measured one might say they are also behind Purdue and Maryland, and therefore are the eighth best program in the conference. So yes, that makes them pretty average in a 14-team conference. Still, that is better than their football results so in a relative sense one can claim they are a basketball school. They play hard for the current coach so I think the program is in good hands... as long as he doesn't run into recruiting violations.

With NIL recruiting violations should be a thing of the past. Then again there is always off the court issues they seem to plague college teams.

 

[Blue Ruin]

My favorite team, the Lady Utes, got bounced today, but it was fun to watch them the last few games. They could throw bombs like Larry Bird, beautiful rainbows from way out.

 

[LTHSALUM76]

To those who are saying, compared to football, Illinois is a basketball school. Well...Duh. It is more of a basketball school, not because of the decent basketball program, but because of the lousy football program.

 

[USD24]

Great showing by the Illini, two B10 championships in a row and still unable to win a second round game in the tourney. Its amazing how average of a program they are.

While their recent success in NCAA tournament has not been great, Illinois is not an average program. Average programs do not win two Big 10 Championships in a row. Average programs do not have the most conference wins in the Big 10 over the last three years. Historically, Illinois is a top 15-20 basketball school in the country. They rank 16th all time in wins and 21st all time in NCAA tournament wins.

 

[godfthr53]

It’s not my problem Illini fans love to say they are a basketball school but over the course of the last 30-40 years they have been out performed by Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in the NCAA tourney. Think about being a basketball school and being the 6th best performing team in your conference.

Hey don't leave out my Boilers.

 

[USD24]

It’s not my problem Illini fans love to say they are a basketball school but over the course of the last 30-40 years they have been out performed by Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in the NCAA tourney. Think about being a basketball school and being the 6th best performing team in your conference.

They clearly are a basketball school. The schools you list are all top 10-15 programs in the country over the last 30-40 years. Weather you like the Illini or not, their program's history puts them as a top 20 program in the country. To say otherwise is just false.

 

[USD24]

Hey don't leave out my Boilers.

In the last 40 years, I would say the Illini and Boilermakers have had very similiar success.

Purdue has made 29 NCAA tournaments, 4 Sweet 16's and 2 elite 8's

Illinois has made 27 NCAA tournaments, 4 Sweet 16's 2 elite 8's and 2 final fours.

If anything, Illinois' resume in that time frame is slightly more impressive. I would never consider Purdue an average basketball program.

 

[missingwalter]

I’m as a big an Illini basketball as you’ll find and I’m having trouble saying they are a top 15-20 program the last 40 years.

 

[USD24]

I’m as a big an Illini basketball as you’ll find and I’m having trouble saying they are a top 15-20 program the last 40 years.

The numbers disagree with you.. And this article does not take into account the Illini's big 10 titles in the last 2 years. This is all time programs, and almost all of Illinois basketball success has happened in the last 40 years. Illinois had only made the NCAA tourney 4 times prior to 1980.

All time best programs

 

[corey90]

I’m as a big an Illini basketball as you’ll find and I’m having trouble saying they are a top 15-20 program the last 40 years.

I agree with you. Although the numbers may indicate differently. IMO I don’t believe Basketball purists around the country think Illinois is a big time basketball program.

 

[missingwalter]

The numbers disagree with you.. And this article does not take into account the Illini's big 10 titles in the last 2 years. This is all time programs, and almost all of Illinois basketball success has happened in the last 40 years. Illinois had only made the NCAA tourney 4 times prior to 1980.

All time best programs

I wrote down 20 teams without looking that I’d say have been better programs than Illinois since I’ve been watching (85)

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan state, Maryland, Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Ohio state, UCLA, UConn, Villanova, Oklahoma, Texas, Gonzaga, Virginia

 

[missingwalter]

They didn’t win the conference two years in a row either.

 

[USD24]

I wrote down 20 teams without looking that I’d say have been better programs than Illinois since I’ve been watching (85)

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan state, Maryland, Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Ohio state, UCLA, UConn, Villanova, Oklahoma, Texas, Gonzaga, Virginia

And Illinois is right there in the mix with the bottom ten of that group. Since 1985, I would put them in front of Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Maryland and maybe Michigan. Gonzaga is a tough one because they were not relevant until 2000 and play in an absolute garbage conference. (FWIW, Illinois is 5-2 vs Gonzaga since 2000) While I respect your opinion. I am just telling you what the numbers say. Every number/analytic/ranking (NCAA appearances, NCAA wins, Conference titles, All-Americans, draft picks, winning percentage,weeks in the rankings, wins against ranked teams, etc.) shows that Illinois is in fact a top 20 program since 1980.

They didn’t win the conference two years in a row either.

OK, you got me. They won a Big Ten regular season and a Big Ten tourney title in last two years. They have the most conference wins in the last three seasons.

 

[ClownBaby]

I wrote down 20 teams without looking that I’d say have been better programs than Illinois since I’ve been watching (85)

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan state, Maryland, Wisconsin, UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Ohio state, UCLA, UConn, Villanova, Oklahoma, Texas, Gonzaga, Virginia

Georgetown, Florida, Arkansas

 

[USD24]

Georgetown, Florida, Arkansas

You guys can name as many teams as you want. Every number clearly shows Illinois is a top 20 program.

 

[whitesox05]

I understand this writer was bored during Covid and needed to get something done...but come on, this list is crap. I've been following college basketball all of my life and I have no idea who he is. It's his opinion and that's fine, nothing wrong with that. It's what he's paid for. But it is his opinion, it's not fact. He created the criteria.

Illinois has a good program. If you wanted to tell me they are around 25, I wouldn't argue. But 15? No way. So N.C. State and their two national titles are 19 but the Illini are 15? Michigan and their 8 Final Fours are 18 but Illinois and their 4 Final Fours are 15? I'm sorry but did 1989 not happen? Illinois has one more Final Four than Iowa.

Very good program but Illini fans can get carried away at times. But this guy's list is really quite bad.

 

[ClownBaby]

You guys can name as many teams as you want. Every number clearly shows Illinois is a top 20 program.

I guess but do think there are any Illinois fan wouldn’t trade their program for Florida’s in a heartbeat?

 

[brucealmighy]

They didn’t win the conference two years in a row either.

They did have the most wins last year by 2. Illinois played all 20 games and Michigan only played 17. Think the wolverines didn’t play 2 road games and 1 home game. Who knows what would have happened but playing 3 less games was a huge advantage. This year Wisconsin lists its last game at home to Nebraska. The Big Ten didn’t really do a great job managing Covid considering they left Indiana out of the Big Ten championship football game.

 

[missingwalter]

And Illinois is right there in the mix with the bottom ten of that group. Since 1985, I would put them in front of Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Maryland and maybe Michigan. Gonzaga is a tough one because they were not relevant until 2000 and play in an absolute garbage conference. (FWIW, Illinois is 5-2 vs Gonzaga since 2000) While I respect your opinion. I am just telling you what the numbers say. Every number/analytic/ranking (NCAA appearances, NCAA wins, Conference titles, All-Americans, draft picks, winning percentage,weeks in the rankings, wins against ranked teams, etc.) shows that Illinois is in fact a top 20 program since 1980.

OK, you got me. They won a Big Ten regular season and a Big Ten tourney title in last two years. They have the most conference wins in the last three seasons.

Virginia for sure and I didn’t even count the Ralph Sampson years. OU and Texas are very comparable. There is no Kansas in the Big 10. Michigan, including keeping Illinois from getting there, has been in the title game 4 times since 85.

 

[missingwalter]

Georgetown, Florida, Arkansas

Florida was a team I forgot, but looked at later and figured if needed I’ll throw them in too. Arkansas hasn’t done much before or after the glory years of the 90s.

 

[USD24]

I understand this writer was bored during Covid and needed to get something done...but come on, this list is crap. I've been following college basketball all of my life and I have no idea who he is. It's his opinion and that's fine, nothing wrong with that. It's what he's paid for. But it is his opinion, it's not fact. He created the criteria.

Illinois has a good program. If you wanted to tell me they are around 25, I wouldn't argue. But 15? No way. So N.C. State and their two national titles are 19 but the Illini are 15? Michigan and their 8 Final Fours are 18 but Illinois and their 4 Final Fours are 15? I'm sorry but did 1989 not happen? Illinois has one more Final Four than Iowa.

Very good program but Illini fans can get carried away at times. But this guy's list is really quite bad.

This whole debate started with someone claiming Illinois was an average program and not a basketball school. I claimed the numbers showed they are a top 20 program. We can debate where they fall between 20-25. My whole point was that they are not an average program and clearly a basketball school. There are over 350 D1 basketball programs. If we are debating where Illinois falls within the top 25 of those 350 schools, it is silly to say they are average.

What criteria would you use to determine how good a program is? He used numerous factors to determine what makes a good program. Final Fours and National Championships alone do not determine how good a program is. I think number of NBA players, weeks ranked in the top 20, winning percentage, conference titles, wins against ranked teams, total number of tourney appearances and total number of tournament wins are all pretty good indicators of a programs consistency and overall strength.

 

[missingwalter]

They haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005, I knew it was bad, but didn’t realize that.

 

[USD24]

They haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2005, I knew it was bad, but didn’t realize that.

Some pretty lean years at the end of Weber's tenure and under Groce. Underwood definitely has them trending in the right direction. He has shown he can win in the big ten, now needs to start advancing past the first weekend in the tournament. The program is in far better shape now then when Underwood arrived.

 

[missingwalter]

Sure it is, still needs to recruit Illinois better.