Not buying what you're selling here. I don't know anyone on that crew. I said my only assumption is that it seems like a rookie mistake, and that it could be a fill-in. Emergencies happen, and the state of officiating in IL is such that sometimes people are forced into games for which they are not ready. I had a trial by fire assignment during my first season as a varsity official and am better for it.
End of CG - Huntley Game
- Thread starter PowerI66
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I got my ass ripped apart in a few association meetings, as well as on the field. I still have trouble sitting down all of these years later.
Only added to provide experience level in reply to assumptions that this was a new/inexperienced crew
I know of the crew as 3 of the 5 came into camera view on the clip. As for level of playoff experience, that is provided on a public web page tracking annual IHSA playoff crews and the members. And area assigners are crew chiefs, and when scheduling an upcoming season, practice quid pro quo for the best games.
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No comment here on the officiating, just a guess on the merits of going for a two-point PAT and the win in Cary-Grove vs. Huntley.
Going for 2 is clearcut:
45 percent of the time you make it and win, and 55 percent of the time, you fail and lose. The NFL keeps track of makes/misses and for high school, I am taking the very low end of the make pct. at 45 pct.
Going for 1 is not so clear:
In the nfl, the last year PAT kicks were taken from the 10 instead of the 23, there was a 99 pct. make total.
For the high school game, I am going to say that PAT kicks are made 90 percent of the time.
That means, 10 percent of the time, you lose by missing the PAT kick.
The other 90 percent of the time, the kick is good and we go to overtime tied, which is basically a 50-50 tossup. So, 50 percent of the 90 percent when the PAT kick good you win, which is a 45 pct. win rate.
50 percent of the 90 percent when the PAT kick is good, you lose, which is a 45 pct. lose rate, plus 10 percent when PAT kick is missed.
So, using these percentages, the odds of going for 2 and the win. over going for 1 and the tie are identical ... 45 pct. win and 55 pct. lose the game.
I love math.
Going for 2 is clearcut:
45 percent of the time you make it and win, and 55 percent of the time, you fail and lose. The NFL keeps track of makes/misses and for high school, I am taking the very low end of the make pct. at 45 pct.
Going for 1 is not so clear:
In the nfl, the last year PAT kicks were taken from the 10 instead of the 23, there was a 99 pct. make total.
For the high school game, I am going to say that PAT kicks are made 90 percent of the time.
That means, 10 percent of the time, you lose by missing the PAT kick.
The other 90 percent of the time, the kick is good and we go to overtime tied, which is basically a 50-50 tossup. So, 50 percent of the 90 percent when the PAT kick good you win, which is a 45 pct. win rate.
50 percent of the 90 percent when the PAT kick is good, you lose, which is a 45 pct. lose rate, plus 10 percent when PAT kick is missed.
So, using these percentages, the odds of going for 2 and the win. over going for 1 and the tie are identical ... 45 pct. win and 55 pct. lose the game.
I love math.
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