Daily Herald: Thanks to transfer portal, options dwindling for suburban high school football players

[EdgyTim]

Thanks to transfer portal, options dwindling for suburban high school football players

Another college signing day has come and gone. And with it, the window of opportunity for high school football players closed just a little bit more. Blame a variety of factors for the dwindling numb...

www.dailyherald.com

Thanks to Kevin Schmit for including me in this feature on recruiting and the impact of the transfer portal on high school football recruiting

 

[epicbret]

Came here to start a thread saying how great you were in that piece. It was really good.

 

[mc140]

At some point soon the extra year kids will be gone from the process. The portal will still be preferred method, but spots will open up.

 

[MMA_Det]

Will the board allow transfer discussions in the future???

 

[EdgyTim]

Will the board allow transfer discussions in the future???

As far as specific kids in high school and transferring? No and the story linked has zero to do with high school kids transferring.

 

[jha618]

At some point soon the extra year kids will be gone from the process. The portal will still be preferred method, but spots will open up.

Yea the portal isn't limiting opportunities to play college football. The scholarship numbers are still the same. The extra covid years some players have used are tying up some spots but that should be fazing out soon.

 

[4Afan]

Yea the portal isn't limiting opportunities to play college football. The scholarship numbers are still the same. The extra covid years some players have used are tying up some spots but that should be fazing out soon.

How is the portal not limiting opportunities for incoming freshmen? That's literally the point of the article.

Scholarship numbers are the same, but the point is more of those scholarships are going to transfers rather than incoming freshmen.

COVID extra years will soon be gone, but those are just more scholarships likely to go to transfers.

Power 5 coaches want talent, they don't want to develop talent so conferences like the MAC and Sun Belt will essentially become minor leagues, or feeder conferences that power 5 schools will strip bare every year and FCS schools will have their talent go to MAC and Sun Belt schools.

College football is far and away my favorite sport and the portal and NIL are ruining it.

 

[jha618]

How is the portal not limiting opportunities for incoming freshmen? That's literally the point of the article.

Scholarship numbers are the same, but the point is more of those scholarships are going to transfers rather than incoming freshmen.

COVID extra years will soon be gone, but those are just more scholarships likely to go to transfers.

Power 5 coaches want talent, they don't want to develop talent so conferences like the MAC and Sun Belt will essentially become minor leagues, or feeder conferences that power 5 schools will strip bare every year and FCS schools will have their talent go to MAC and Sun Belt schools.

College football is far and away my favorite sport and the portal and NIL are ruining it.

Because the portal has nothing to do with the available scholarships, which is what limits the opportunities for hs kids. Normally there would be roughly 4600 D1 scholarships for bball. If a kid transfers from Illinois to Mizzou, hes still only using 1 of those 4600 scholarships. Hes not all of a sudden using 2 because he transferred.

You are conflating to different issues here (extra covid year vs transfer portal). Yes, a P5 coach may grab a fr or soph from a MAC school over a HS kid. But all that means is that MAC school has an extra scholarship to use because of the player it lost.

 

[4Afan]

Because the portal has nothing to do with the available scholarships, which is what limits the opportunities for hs kids. Normally there would be roughly 4600 D1 scholarships for bball. If a kid transfers from Illinois to Mizzou, hes still only using 1 of those 4600 scholarships. Hes not all of a sudden using 2 because he transferred.

You are conflating to different issues here (extra covid year vs transfer portal). Yes, a P5 coach may grab a fr or soph from a MAC school over a HS kid. But all that means is that MAC school has an extra scholarship to use because of the player it lost.

Yes it does because while the number of scholarships doesn't change, who they are going to does. FBS schools can have 85 scholarship athletes on the team. Let's say 20 of them leave due to graduation, transfer, or getting drafted, that team has 20 scholarships to give out for the following year. Where the large majority of those used to go to HS seniors now they are going to transfers, thus reducing the amount of HS seniors receiving scholarships. This is exactly what the article talked about, did you read it?

It's a trickle down effect, yes MAC schools lose kids to P5 schools, but then those MAC schools find transfers from even smaller conferences, fellow MAC schools, FCS schools, etc.

 

[JCHillmen]

Yes it does because while the number of scholarships doesn't change, who they are going to does. FBS schools can have 85 scholarship athletes on the team. Let's say 20 of them leave due to graduation, transfer, or getting drafted, that team has 20 scholarships to give out for the following year. Where the large majority of those used to go to HS seniors now they are going to transfers, thus reducing the amount of HS seniors receiving scholarships. This is exactly what the article talked about, did you read it?

It's a trickle down effect, yes MAC schools lose kids to P5 schools, but then those MAC schools find transfers from even smaller conferences, fellow MAC schools, FCS schools, etc.

Once the extra year goes away, HS kids will not be "squeezed" out of college football like they are now. The extra year means the same number of scholarships are being divided amongst a bigger group of people.

The portal is an entirely different issue. You are correct in that there is a trickle down effect. The portal may impact some kids getting P5 offers, but it won't squeeze them out of college scholarships altogether like the extra year is doing.

The new reality is a trickle down effect. P5 schools can go after the top HS players OR get kids from lower P5 schools, Group of 5 schools, or FCS. Group of 5 schools then have to choose between the best remaining HS players or FCS transfers. FCS schools can go after the next rung of HS players or go down into D2.

So it's more a minor league system being set up with the new transfer rules instead of one player just spending 4-5 years at one place. Once you get into "the system" you can transfer up or down. But there will be the same number of opportunities in "the system" as there always have been. The only difference is that now the HS senior who may have gotten an offer to be a redshirt and eventual special teamer at Illinois or Vanderbilt or Michigan State now may have to start at NIU or Arkansas State or even ISU or some other FCS school. But a player who was previously passed over by Michigan State and had to settle for one of those lower schools now may get the "call up" in their junior season.

Same number of opportunities. More fluidity in how those opportunities are presented.

For the record, I hate it and it is absolutely ruining college sports, but the squeeze in opportunities is coming from the extra year and not the portal. The portal is just creating free agency and kids transferring up and down each offseason, but the same number of opportunities are still there for incoming freshmen. But now the #85 player on a Big Ten roster may have to go to NIU to actually be in the rotation as a freshman or sophomore and see if they can't earn their Big Ten offer with their performance.

 

[4Afan]

Once the extra year goes away, HS kids will not be "squeezed" out of college football like they are now. The extra year means the same number of scholarships are being divided amongst a bigger group of people.

The portal is an entirely different issue. You are correct in that there is a trickle down effect. The portal may impact some kids getting P5 offers, but it won't squeeze them out of college scholarships altogether like the extra year is doing.

The new reality is a trickle down effect. P5 schools can go after the top HS players OR get kids from lower P5 schools, Group of 5 schools, or FCS. Group of 5 schools then have to choose between the best remaining HS players or FCS transfers. FCS schools can go after the next rung of HS players or go down into D2.

So it's more a minor league system being set up with the new transfer rules instead of one player just spending 4-5 years at one place. Once you get into "the system" you can transfer up or down. But there will be the same number of opportunities in "the system" as there always have been. The only difference is that now the HS senior who may have gotten an offer to be a redshirt and eventual special teamer at Illinois or Vanderbilt or Michigan State now may have to start at NIU or Arkansas State or even ISU or some other FCS school. But a player who was previously passed over by Michigan State and had to settle for one of those lower schools now may get the "call up" in their junior season.

Same number of opportunities. More fluidity in how those opportunities are presented.

For the record, I hate it and it is absolutely ruining college sports, but the squeeze in opportunities is coming from the extra year and not the portal. The portal is just creating free agency and kids transferring up and down each offseason, but the same number of opportunities are still there for incoming freshmen. But now the #85 player on a Big Ten roster may have to go to NIU to actually be in the rotation as a freshman or sophomore and see if they can't earn their Big Ten offer with their performance.

Agree to disagree.

The other aspect of the article is playing time. If a kid wants to play in college then he actually wants to see the field. That possibility gets diminished with the portal. Say a kid from JCA gets a scholarship to Illinois and expects to redshirt his freshman year, but then contend for playing time his sophomore year and beyond. Then in his Junior year Illinois decides to bring in a transfer from Akron to take playing time away from the JCA kid. The kid from JCA just wants to play ball so he transfers to NIU his Senior year and is a starter. In doing so he takes playing time away from a kid from LWE who had been at NIU for 3 years.

 

[JCHillmen]

Agree to disagree.

The other aspect of the article is playing time. If a kid wants to play in college then he actually wants to see the field. That possibility gets diminished with the portal. Say a kid from JCA gets a scholarship to Illinois and expects to redshirt his freshman year, but then contend for playing time his sophomore year and beyond. Then in his Junior year Illinois decides to bring in a transfer from Akron to take playing time away from the JCA kid. The kid from JCA just wants to play ball so he transfers to NIU his Senior year and is a starter. In doing so he takes playing time away from a kid from LWE who had been at NIU for 3 years.

In your scenario, no opportunities were created or destroyed. The one kid wanted to play at Illinois. A transfer from Akron (or a former second stringer or a HS recruit) rises up and takes his spot. The kid who wanted to start at Illinois but gets beat out either stays at Illinois as a backup or competes for the starting spot at Akron.

The opportunity for the Akron transfer to play at Illinois left open an opportunity for someone else to start at Akron.

A guy like Nick Fedanzo from Montini/Illinois is probably a good comparison. Before the portal got crazy, he got an offer from Illinois out of Montini and took it. He has spent the last 5 years at Illinois first as a redshirt and then as a special teamer/depth piece at running back.

Back in 2018, Illinois offered and he accepted and chose to stay all 5 years. He could have transferred down to G5 or FCS and played more, but he chose to stay in the Big Ten. In 2024, he likely doesn't get a Big Ten offer because those last few scholarships in each class are no longer going to borderline HS recruits but instead to transfers. But then that kid who transferred from Ball State to Illinois to take what would have been a spot for Fedanzo in the past now leaves open a scholarship spot at Ball State.

So yes if we are talking about those coveted Big Ten and SEC offers, there are fewer of them for HS recruits because they are finding more seasoned kids who already have college experience to take a few of their scholarships each year. But kids languishing at the bottom of the Big Ten and SEC depth charts sometimes take the opposite approach of Fedanzo and transfer down, leaving an extra Big Ten/SEC scholarship. And just as importantly, a kid who was at Akron or Kent State and just tearing it up may now leave for the Big Ten, but now there is another MAC scholarship available.

College athletics is now worse for the free agency it has created. But no scholarships have been created or destroyed. They have just been made very fluid and rosters are much more transient now. That's it. A kid who thought he would be the last offer Northwestern made in the 2018 class likely probably has to settle for being in the middle of the Ball State class in 2024.

But it's the same 11,050 scholarships and same 2,860 starting sports for the roughly 130 FBS teams. Whose filling them just changes a lot from year to year.

The opportunity the HS tweener kid wanted to go to Northwestern may not be there. But now the guy stuck on Northwestern's fourth string can transfer down, the guy overplaying his MAC roster can transfer up, and the kids who got offered above where they likely should have as incoming freshmen in the past now may have to start a level of football or two below where they would have in the past. But that guy can still get to Northwestern. He may have to do it as a MAC starter for a year or two rather than a Northwestern backup, but the number of opportunities is still the same, just perhaps a bit delayed on a "prove it" approach.

 

[4Afan]

In your scenario, no opportunities were created or destroyed. The one kid wanted to play at Illinois. A transfer from Akron (or a former second stringer or a HS recruit) rises up and takes his spot. The kid who wanted to start at Illinois but gets beat out either stays at Illinois as a backup or competes for the starting spot at Akron.

The opportunity for the Akron transfer to play at Illinois left open an opportunity for someone else to start at Akron.

A guy like Nick Fedanzo from Montini/Illinois is probably a good comparison. Before the portal got crazy, he got an offer from Illinois out of Montini and took it. He has spent the last 5 years at Illinois first as a redshirt and then as a special teamer/depth piece at running back.

Back in 2018, Illinois offered and he accepted and chose to stay all 5 years. He could have transferred down to G5 or FCS and played more, but he chose to stay in the Big Ten. In 2024, he likely doesn't get a Big Ten offer because those last few scholarships in each class are no longer going to borderline HS recruits but instead to transfers. But then that kid who transferred from Ball State to Illinois to take what would have been a spot for Fedanzo in the past now leaves open a scholarship spot at Ball State.

So yes if we are talking about those coveted Big Ten and SEC offers, there are fewer of them for HS recruits because they are finding more seasoned kids who already have college experience to take a few of their scholarships each year. But kids languishing at the bottom of the Big Ten and SEC depth charts sometimes take the opposite approach of Fedanzo and transfer down, leaving an extra Big Ten/SEC scholarship. And just as importantly, a kid who was at Akron or Kent State and just tearing it up may now leave for the Big Ten, but now there is another MAC scholarship available.

College athletics is now worse for the free agency it has created. But no scholarships have been created or destroyed. They have just been made very fluid and rosters are much more transient now. That's it. A kid who thought he would be the last offer Northwestern made in the 2018 class likely probably has to settle for being in the middle of the Ball State class in 2024.

But it's the same 11,050 scholarships and same 2,860 starting sports for the roughly 130 FBS teams. Whose filling them just changes a lot from year to year.

The opportunity the HS tweener kid wanted to go to Northwestern may not be there. But now the guy stuck on Northwestern's fourth string can transfer down, the guy overplaying his MAC roster can transfer up, and the kids who got offered above where they likely should have as incoming freshmen in the past now may have to start a level of football or two below where they would have in the past. But that guy can still get to Northwestern. He may have to do it as a MAC starter for a year or two rather than a Northwestern backup, but the number of opportunities is still the same, just perhaps a bit delayed on a "prove it" approach.

I guess that Tim guy doesn't know what he's talking about then.

"For those hoping for a reversal of fortune, the horse already left the barn on the transfer portal. O’Halloran said it might be time for high school players and their families to look at recruiting from a different point of view.

If playing at college is an absolute goal, cherish a chance at the lower levels. Be thankful for the offer of academic money instead of an athletic scholarship. Recognize the value of having a foot in the door by becoming a preferred walk-on.

“It’s going to continue to get more cutthroat and more difficult to get that offer,” O’Halloran said. “People are looking for answers and no one seems to have them.”

It's like people came here to comment without reading the article.

 

[JCHillmen]

I guess that Tim guy doesn't know what he's talking about then.

"For those hoping for a reversal of fortune, the horse already left the barn on the transfer portal. O’Halloran said it might be time for high school players and their families to look at recruiting from a different point of view.

If playing at college is an absolute goal, cherish a chance at the lower levels. Be thankful for the offer of academic money instead of an athletic scholarship. Recognize the value of having a foot in the door by becoming a preferred walk-on.

“It’s going to continue to get more cutthroat and more difficult to get that offer,” O’Halloran said. “People are looking for answers and no one seems to have them.”

It's like people came here to comment without reading the article.

I think he's saying exactly what I am saying. That second paragraph is almost an exact replica of my previous post. You may have to start at a lower level than a similar recruit would have in 2018. But there is still a spot in college FB for the same kids in 2024 that there was in 2018. You will still get into "the system." Then it is a matter of navigating it up and down the rungs.

The entry point may be different and placement is constantly changing.

 

[ClownBaby]

I think he's saying exactly what I am saying. That second paragraph is almost an exact replica of my previous post. You may have to start at a lower level than a similar recruit would have in 2018. But there is still a spot in college FB for the same kids in 2024 that there was in 2018. You will still get into "the system." Then it is a matter of navigating it up and down the rungs.

The entry point may be different and placement is constantly changing. But if you

The biggest issue is non power 5 high school recruits are getting boxed out. Yes you enter the system but now you also leave it with debt.

 

[jha618]

The biggest issue is non power 5 high school recruits are getting boxed out. Yes you enter the system but now you also leave it with debt.

Not necessarily. All FBS football scholarship are full ride. Not just P5.

 

[jha618]

Yes it does because while the number of scholarships doesn't change, who they are going to does. FBS schools can have 85 scholarship athletes on the team. Let's say 20 of them leave due to graduation, transfer, or getting drafted, that team has 20 scholarships to give out for the following year. Where the large majority of those used to go to HS seniors now they are going to transfers,

Transfers that were on scholarship somewhere else. Which means there is some other school out there who now has an additional scholarship to give out. The numbers (or opportunities) haven't changed.

thus reducing the amount of HS seniors receiving scholarships. This is exactly what the article talked about, did you read it?

I read it. It doesn't mean I agree with it, or that the article is correct.

It's a trickle down effect, yes MAC schools lose kids to P5 schools, but then those MAC schools find transfers from even smaller conferences, fellow MAC schools, FCS schools, etc.

There were over 580 FBS to FCS transfers last year. There were only 190ish FCS to FBS transfers. So, the data does not support your claim that FBS schools are pillaging the rosters of FCS teams. Its actually the exact opposite. Additionally, if your assertion is that FBS school prefer transfers (which I dont necessarily disagree with) that means there is a larger percentage of higher end HS talent that will end up at FCS school. So there is a claim to be made that the transfer portal provides some benefits for FCS schools in HS recruiting.

 

[mc140]

It is bad now, will probably still be bad next year and then will go back to normal in the sense not all levels will be able to rely on 5th, 6th and 7th year transfers to fill out their rosters. The only difference in two years from pre-portal will be starting point. Some kids forced to start a level down wont necessarily ruin their college careers.

 

[ClownBaby]

Transfers that were on scholarship somewhere else. Which means there is some other school out there who now has an additional scholarship to give out. The numbers (or opportunities) haven't changed.

I read it. It doesn't mean I agree with it, or that the article is correct.

There were over 580 FBS to FCS transfers last year. There were only 190ish FCS to FBS transfers. So, the data does not support your claim that FBS schools are pillaging the rosters of FCS teams. Its actually the exact opposite. Additionally, if your assertion is that FBS school prefer transfers (which I dont necessarily disagree with) that means there is a larger percentage of higher end HS talent that will end up at FCS school. So there is a claim to be made that the transfer portal provides some benefits for FCS schools in HS recruiting.

Pre transfer portal era FCS to FBS transfers were rare now they are becoming common, it’s 190 additional players fighting for scholarships against high school kids. FBS to FCS has always been common.

 

[DadCoachSports]

I feel the issue for recruits is the immediate playing time. I believe you are going to see more redshirting than in previous times. These P4 (no more P5) coaches rather have older more experienced players.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Pre transfer portal era FCS to FBS transfers were rare now they are becoming common, it’s 190 additional players fighting for scholarships against high school kids. FBS to FCS has always been common.

But the spots are not going away, it's more starting at a lower level...no?

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

Transfers that were on scholarship somewhere else. Which means there is some other school out there who now has an additional scholarship to give out. The numbers (or opportunities) haven't changed.

I read it. It doesn't mean I agree with it, or that the article is correct.

There were over 580 FBS to FCS transfers last year. There were only 190ish FCS to FBS transfers. So, the data does not support your claim that FBS schools are pillaging the rosters of FCS teams. Its actually the exact opposite. Additionally, if your assertion is that FBS school prefer transfers (which I dont necessarily disagree with) that means there is a larger percentage of higher end HS talent that will end up at FCS school. So there is a claim to be made that the transfer portal provides some benefits for FCS schools in HS recruiting.

Your posts are very well reasoned. Once the extra years are over, there are the same number of spots as before. The one wrinkle would be whether the transfer system ends up increasing or decreasing the number of players who use 5 years to complete 4 years of eligibility. I could see it going either way, but if that does change materially, it would impact kids leaving HS.

One way the transfer portal I think certainly hurts HS kids is that it probably introduces more stress and uncertainty in their college decisions. Because colleges are looking to fill out roster weaknesses through the portal, they are (I'm assuming) slower to provide firm offers to kids. OTOH, maybe the kids shouldn't stress so much about making the "perfect" choice since they can easily transfer in the future if it doesn't work out 🤷‍♂️

 

[jha618]

Your posts are very well reasoned. Once the extra years are over, there are the same number of spots as before. The one wrinkle would be whether the transfer system ends up increasing or decreasing the number of players who use 5 years to complete 4 years of eligibility. I could see it going either way, but if that does change materially, it would impact kids leaving HS.

One way the transfer portal I think certainly hurts HS kids is that it probably introduces more stress and uncertainty in their college decisions. Because colleges are looking to fill out roster weaknesses through the portal, they are (I'm assuming) slower to provide firm offers to kids. OTOH, maybe the kids shouldn't stress so much about making the "perfect" choice since they can easily transfer in the future if it doesn't work out 🤷‍♂️

I think the portal, and how transfers are handled in general, will decrease the number of student athletes using 5 years to play 4. Charlie Baker said a few days ago hes not a fan of limiting the movement of players.