CS8 Playoff Week 2 Predictions

[rocketnation]

The CS8 went 3-2 last week. There is one Friday and two Saturday games this week. Clearly, the game that will draw the most attention is Springfield vs Lemont on Friday at Memorial Stadium.

Friday
Lemont (10-0) at Springfield (7-3)
What will happen when a team that has allowed 85 points for the entire season meets a team which scored 94 last week? Other than a hard fought 15-10 win against Nazareth in Week 2, Lemont has won mostly lopsided victories. They have scored more than 40 points seven times and not given up more than 22 in any game. Springfield has scored more than 50 points four times and given up more than 50 points three times. There should be a big crowd Friday as Springfield is the only CS8 game and due to the buzz from last week’s record scoring game against Rock Island. I imagine that Lemont will also travel well.

This is Springfield’s first home playoff game since 2010, and they will play with emotion for outgoing Coach Roy Gully. As good as Rashad Rochelle is at making big plays, the development of RB Tyree Coleman later in the season has been important. He gained 250 yards last week and forces defenses to not solely focus on Rashad. Springfield could possibly sustain their level of play for a second week and pull off the upset. If they get rolling, Springfield can put up big points very quickly, and they might have to score 50 to even have a shot. However, their defense has been very shaky all season against good teams and it’s unlikely to get better at this point. I don’t see Lemont’s defense giving up enough big plays to lead to an upset but it will be tested. Lemont 56 Springfield 37

Saturday
Rochester (9-1) at Paris (7-3)
Paris, which is one of the smallest 4A playoff schools and mostly plays a 3A schedule, surprised Mount Zion at home last week 17-6. They started 0-2 and have since won 7 of their last 8. Paris has only allowed 10 or more points 3 times this season. They will want to try to control the ball and keep Rochester’s offense on the sideline, as they did to Mount Zion. After the impressive win over Cahokia last week, Rochester doesn’t want to have a let down. Start fast and take the crowd out of the game. With a muddy field last week, Rochester didn’t pass much. They may try to test the Paris secondary more this week. Hank Beatty should have another big game. He could go over 1,500 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing for the season Saturday. Rochester 49 Paris 6

SHG (9-1) at Bethalto (7-3)
Bethalto won on the road last week against Quincy Notre Dame in a bit of an upset 20-17. Their 3 losses have been to 5A qualifiers Mascoutah, Triad, and Highland. They gave up 70 points to Mascoutah. Bethalto has a QB with good stats, over 1,700 yards passing and 21 TD’s. SHG has only given up more than 13 points once this season. It took a little while for SHG to take over against Columbia last week, but they still won 49-13. Columbia was able to sustain long drives at times last week. Bethalto doesn’t seem to have that type of offense, and SHG defends the pass well. Expect them to start fast and win decisively. SHG 54 Bethalto 14

 

[cornerrat]

All.... I was surprised by the Paris/Mt Zion score and had picked the Braves. But later found out Mt. Zion since the second part of the season had a ton of injuries that continued and got worse through their one and only playoff game. The game in Paris is going to be an ugly one for the Tigers. Rockets will put a runner on them very early and rest all their starters at the latest the entire second half. Ratsy

 

[McEvergreen]

The CS8 went 3-2 last week. There is one Friday and two Saturday games this week. Clearly, the game that will draw the most attention is Springfield vs Lemont on Friday at Memorial Stadium.

Friday
Lemont (10-0) at Springfield (7-3)
What will happen when a team that has allowed 85 points for the entire season meets a team which scored 94 last week? Other than a hard fought 15-10 win against Nazareth in Week 2, Lemont has won mostly lopsided victories. They have scored more than 40 points seven times and not given up more than 22 in any game. Springfield has scored more than 50 points four times and given up more than 50 points three times. There should be a big crowd Friday as Springfield is the only CS8 game and due to the buzz from last week’s record scoring game against Rock Island. I imagine that Lemont will also travel well.

This is Springfield’s first home playoff game since 2010, and they will play with emotion for outgoing Coach Roy Gully. As good as Rashad Rochelle is at making big plays, the development of RB Tyree Coleman later in the season has been important. He gained 250 yards last week and forces defenses to not solely focus on Rashad. Springfield could possibly sustain their level of play for a second week and pull off the upset. If they get rolling, Springfield can put up big points very quickly, and they might have to score 50 to even have a shot. However, their defense has been very shaky all season against good teams and it’s unlikely to get better at this point. I don’t see Lemont’s defense giving up enough big plays to lead to an upset but it will be tested. Lemont 56 Springfield 37

Saturday
Rochester (9-1) at Paris (7-3)
Paris, which is one of the smallest 4A playoff schools and mostly plays a 3A schedule, surprised Mount Zion at home last week 17-6. They started 0-2 and have since won 7 of their last 8. Paris has only allowed 10 or more points 3 times this season. They will want to try to control the ball and keep Rochester’s offense on the sideline, as they did to Mount Zion. After the impressive win over Cahokia last week, Rochester doesn’t want to have a let down. Start fast and take the crowd out of the game. With a muddy field last week, Rochester didn’t pass much. They may try to test the Paris secondary more this week. Hank Beatty should have another big game. He could go over 1,500 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing for the season Saturday. Rochester 49 Paris 6

SHG (9-1) at Bethalto (7-3)
Bethalto won on the road last week against Quincy Notre Dame in a bit of an upset 20-17. Their 3 losses have been to 5A qualifiers Mascoutah, Triad, and Highland. They gave up 70 points to Mascoutah. Bethalto has a QB with good stats, over 1,700 yards passing and 21 TD’s. SHG has only given up more than 13 points once this season. It took a little while for SHG to take over against Columbia last week, but they still won 49-13. Columbia was able to sustain long drives at times last week. Bethalto doesn’t seem to have that type of offense, and SHG defends the pass well. Expect them to start fast and win decisively. SHG 54 Bethalto 14

Some great games on tap! Hide the women n children lol. Lemont will be all business and ready to bring it.

 

[cigaros]

All.... I was surprised by the Paris/Mt Zion score and had picked the Braves. But later found out Mt. Zion since the second part of the season had a ton of injuries that continued and got worse through their one and only playoff game. The game in Paris is going to be an ugly one for the Tigers. Rockets will put a runner on them very early and rest all their starters at the latest the entire second half. Ratsy

I absolutely agree. Paris has played schools which average about 450 students. But the more telling stat is the state ranking of their opponents averages about 315. Whereas Rochester has played bigger schools all year, average size of about 1050 and state ranking of about 160. The best school Paris played was 122nd ranked Mt. Carmel who beat them by 23. Whereas Rochester's 1st round opponent was ranked 119th and they put a clock on them. Paris does not have the roster of subs to spell their defense which has not faced an offense such as Rochester. I can see the freshmen and sophomores, who have been given the honor of dressing for the playoffs, will be seeing most of the 2nd half. It's a long drive for the starters to be only playing 24 minutes max. Also telling is Paris scheduled a school which should be playing 8 man, whereas Rochester scheduled an 8A state title contender. These two schools are not the same.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Yep. Success factor for the publics as well or true seeding for ALL teams regardless of class which is being debated on this board as we speak. This game should not even be happening . Ratsy

 

[cigaros]

All.... Yep. Success factor for the publics as well or true seeding for ALL teams regardless of class which is being debated on this board as we speak. This game should not even be happening . Ratsy

I'm going to disagree with the success factor for the public schools. Public schools do not have their pick of players as your favorite team does. And before you answer, I don't care that private schools recruit, though they say they don't. I went to a private school and I DID recruit. Many of my friends were recruited. Some played in the NFL. The success factor was properly applied and this year is a perfect example. SHG should be a 5A school except they didn't win 3 playoff games in 2 years. Who would know if the sophomores who were in the program would develop to what they are today. A better example is the 2019 St. Rita team which fell to 5A (after 10+ years as a 7A) due to two years of poor performances. And it showed as Rochester decided not to put a clock on them in the 5A championship. After those 4 wins by Rita in 19, they were "success factored" back into 7A and are expected to go far with a now Senior D1 bound running back.

I do agree with 1 thru 32 seeding in the classes. There is no reason for a state championship to be played in the semifinals as we've seen in some years past (Rochester v Althoff in 2016, quarters actually, or Rochester vs Highland in 2017).

 

[rocketnation]

I'm going to disagree with the success factor for the public schools. Public schools do not have their pick of players as your favorite team does. And before you answer, I don't care that private schools recruit, though they say they don't. I went to a private school and I DID recruit. Many of my friends were recruited. Some played in the NFL. The success factor was properly applied and this year is a perfect example. SHG should be a 5A school except they didn't win 3 playoff games in 2 years. Who would know if the sophomores who were in the program would develop to what they are today. A better example is the 2019 St. Rita team which fell to 5A (after 10+ years as a 7A) due to two years of poor performances. And it showed as Rochester decided not to put a clock on them in the 5A championship. After those 4 wins by Rita in 19, they were "success factored" back into 7A and are expected to go far with a now Senior D1 bound running back.

I do agree with 1 thru 32 seeding in the classes. There is no reason for a state championship to be played in the semifinals as we've seen in some years past (Rochester v Althoff in 2016, quarters actually, or Rochester vs Highland in 2017).

Interesting points. Your examples of the 1-32 seeding and the best teams playing before the finals definitely was true in 2016. The Althoff team was far better than the teams who Rochester played in semis and the finals. Morris gave Rochester a much more difficult game in the 2017 finals though than Highland did in the semis. Highland trailed 28-0 before getting their first score and lost 31-14.

 

[doctor_d]

I do agree with 1 thru 32 seeding in the classes. There is no reason for a state championship to be played in the semifinals as we've seen in some years past (Rochester v Althoff in 2016, quarters actually, or Rochester vs Highland in 2017).

I completely disagree with your assessment of the 2017 4A championship.
Morris more than held their own in the title game, losing 24-21 on a last second FG.

 

[rocketnation]

SJR Staff Predictions
Lemont 65 Springfield 21
Rochester 54 Paris 7
SHG 45 Bethalto 20

 

[cornerrat]

I'm going to disagree with the success factor for the public schools. Public schools do not have their pick of players as your favorite team does. And before you answer, I don't care that private schools recruit, though they say they don't. I went to a private school and I DID recruit. Many of my friends were recruited. Some played in the NFL. The success factor was properly applied and this year is a perfect example. SHG should be a 5A school except they didn't win 3 playoff games in 2 years. Who would know if the sophomores who were in the program would develop to what they are today. A better example is the 2019 St. Rita team which fell to 5A (after 10+ years as a 7A) due to two years of poor performances. And it showed as Rochester decided not to put a clock on them in the 5A championship. After those 4 wins by Rita in 19, they were "success factored" back into 7A and are expected to go far with a now Senior D1 bound running back.

I do agree with 1 thru 32 seeding in the classes. There is no reason for a state championship to be played in the semifinals as we've seen in some years past (Rochester v Althoff in 2016, quarters actually, or Rochester vs Highland in 2017).

All.... Sure is funny a multitude of those "pick of players" in Springfield and nearby are playing for other teams. Including Catholic kids. If I had a nickel for how many times I heard that simple explanation well you know what they say.

You forgot to mention one thing. The privates are already multiplied that took care of this supposed problem the publics wailed about for years and years. But it wasn't enough . So another discriminatory policy was put into place to curb private school winning, the success factor. Shameful. By the way the real enrollment for SHG is 510. Ratsy

 

[rocketnation]

All.... Sure is funny a multitude of those "pick of players" in Springfield and nearby are playing for other teams. Including Catholic kids. If I had a nickel for how many times I heard that simple explanation well you know what they say.

You forgot to mention one thing. The privates are already multiplied that took care of this supposed problem the publics wailed about for years and years. But it wasn't enough . So another discriminatory policy was put into place to curb private school winning, the success factor. Shameful. By the way the real enrollment for SHG is 510. Ratsy

Wow, I remember not that long ago when Springfield had 2 Catholic high schools: SHG and Ursuline. Had a relative graduate from SHG about 10 years ago and thought the enrollment at that time was around 700. Do you think it could fall even farther?

 

[McEvergreen]

Wow, I remember not that long ago when Springfield had 2 Catholic high schools: SHG and Ursuline. Had a relative graduate from SHG about 10 years ago and thought the enrollment at that time was around 700. Do you think it could fall even farther?

I would have guessed private enrollment would be going up ever since remote learning ripped the lid off of what's going on in the public schools. Or should I say , what isn't going on?

 

[rocketnation]

I would have guessed private enrollment would be going up ever since remote learning ripped the lid off of what's going on in the public schools. Or should I say , what isn't going on?

When the public schools in our area were remote at the start of the 2020-21 school year, I did hear about some kids switching to private schools, particularly at the lower grades, because they were mostly in-person. I’m not sure if that was more than a one-year bump though.

 

[cornerrat]

Wow, I remember not that long ago when Springfield had 2 Catholic high schools: SHG and Ursuline. Had a relative graduate from SHG about 10 years ago and thought the enrollment at that time was around 700. Do you think it could fall even farther?

All.... I don't know but have heard for the first time in quite awhile SHG is going to give what I'm told a decent discount if parents have a second student going to the school. The announcement is coming soon. They already have frozen tuition raises I believe for at least two years. Still it's 9000 plus. I haven't a clue in how to get tuition to drop. Lot of churches in town but tapping them a bit from the parish collections would have a lot of blowback. Ratsy

 

[cigaros]

All.... Sure is funny a multitude of those "pick of players" in Springfield and nearby are playing for other teams. Including Catholic kids. If I had a nickel for how many times I heard that simple explanation well you know what they say.

You forgot to mention one thing. The privates are already multiplied that took care of this supposed problem the publics wailed about for years and years. But it wasn't enough . So another discriminatory policy was put into place to curb private school winning, the success factor. Shameful. By the way the real enrollment for SHG is 510. Ratsy

Their website says close to 600. IHSA has them at 604. 510 x 1.65 is 841. 600 x 1.65 is 990. So, no. As a former private school kid who used to recruit, I know exactly who we used to target for our school. But as I said earlier, I don't care that they recruit. And because they have an admissions policy rather than a requirement to accept based on geography, the Success Factor is absolutely appropriate. Go play Loyola if you don't believe the recruiting aspect plays into success. I predict Loyola 56, SHG 3, if only because SHG lost by 4 to Rochester.

 

[cornerrat]

Their website says close to 600. IHSA has them at 604. 510 x 1.65 is 841. 600 x 1.65 is 990. So, no. As a former private school kid who used to recruit, I know exactly who we used to target for our school. But as I said earlier, I don't care that they recruit. And because they have an admissions policy rather than a requirement to accept based on geography, the Success Factor is absolutely appropriate. Go play Loyola if you don't believe the recruiting aspect plays into success. I predict Loyola 56, SHG 3, if only because SHG lost by 4 to Rochester.

All.... I see you are getting off track. Brilliant analogous comparison./S I noticed that sting hasn't gone. Relax, but let me help you. The Ihsa has them at 607.00 by the way which is based on a two year average. Not correct. The web site you referenced, that number is not updated. Booklet programs for purchase at home football games have all current data including their enrollment which is 510. Have a nice day. Ratsy

 

[rocketnation]

Halftime Lemont 31 Springfield 28

Lemont had not given up more than 22 points in a game this season. Rochelle has run for a TD, thrown for one, and returned a kickoff for TD.

 

[rocketnation]

Springfield led most of the first half, but Lemont scored right before halftime to retake the lead. Can either defense make adjustments and step up in the second half?

Late 4th Quarter Lemont 73 Springfield 36. Lemont defense giving up one big play after another. But can Springfield D rise to the occasion? So far, no. Lemont just got a stop in Springfield territory. A two score lead would be huge, and Lemont gets it. Springfield has to score this drive or it could unravel fast. Lemont gets another stop and good field position. They score again but no 3 score lead yet. Springfield desperately needs a score. Instead, they fumble the kickoff and Lemont recovers. Lemont scores again and is now in control. They have scored the last 42 points. Looks like Lemont will get East St Louis next week.

 

[brucealmighy]

Looks like Lemont will get East St Louis next week.

Can lemont keep it close?

 

[rocketnation]

Can lemont keep it close?

Don’t think so after seeing Lemont struggle with Springfield’s big play offense.

 

[rocketnation]

Final
Lemont 73 Springfield 36
Behind another strong effort from Rashad Rochelle, Springfield led 36-31 early in the 3rd Quarter. Then it all quickly fell apart. Lemont scored the final 42 points of the game. Springfield had been gambling and made big plays on 4th down several times but their luck eventually ran out. Lemont made defensive adjustments and held Springfield scoreless the last 20 or so minutes. Springfield‘s defense, which was shaky all year, could not stop Lemont in the second half at crucial times.

 

[rocketnation]

Both Finals
Rochester 55 Paris 20
Rochester scored all seven possessions of the first half and led 48-6 at the break. Hank Beatty ran for 2 TD’s and passed for 1, while RB Christian Creviston ran for 2 TD’s as well. Paris had some size on the line and played hard but only dressed about 30 players. Rochester will play Freeburg (9-2) next Saturday at 4 pm at home.

SHG 42 Bethalto 7
After leading 14-7 in the second quarter, SHG scored the last 28 points of the game and won comfortably. Listened to the second half driving back from Paris. SHG scored on the first drive of the 3rd quarter and then recovered a bad punt snap in the end zone the next drive to cement the win. They will face Breese Central (10-1) at home next week. Have not heard a date and time yet.