capnbill: BethBowl.........

[MWittman]

capn:

It did not occur to me at the time because your merrymaking over the 8A bracket was amusing, but what happens if I am right about the outcome this Saturday in Wilmette? What will doubters who cast scorn at me be required to do if my prognostication is error-free?

Will those who questioned my gift of prediction be forced to change their name? Will there be a queue of posters in a new thread offering up contrition for their disbelief?

Is this not a matter worth careful deliberation?

 

[ramblinman]

capn:

It did not occur to me at the time because your merrymaking over the 8A bracket was amusing, but what happens if I am right about the outcome this Saturday in Wilmette? What will doubters who cast scorn at me be required to do if my prognostication is error-free?

Will those who questioned my gift of prediction be forced to change their name? Will there be a queue of posters in a new thread offering up contrition for their disbelief?

Is this not a matter worth careful deliberation?

I realize your post was directed at capnbill, but it's a pubic forum, so I'm going to be a buttinsky.

As I recall, you made a one-sided wager. You bet $10,000 (later amended to be $10K in Monopoly currency) that HC would not make it to the quarters as Beth Long projected. You did not proffer any potential payouts coming your way if you were right. I simply assumed that taking satisfaction of your prediction gifts being superior to those of Ms. Long in this particular case would be sufficient for you in the event your prediction proves true.

Sorry, but a bet is a bet. Next time, ask for something in return when you make the wager and not after the fact. The fact that doing so didn't occur to you at the time because of otherwise amusing merrymaking over the 8A bracket is not sufficient reason to renegotiate the terms of the bet a week later. A real betting stickler would say that you have already renegotiated the terms with your Monopoly currency amendment.

Of course, I hope your prediction proves true.

 

[capnbillhitters]

"That had not occurred to us, Dude"

Let's break this down from a couple perspectives:

1. Historical Record -
   • If one looks at the last nine years, LA has never won less than 11 games. On average, LA wins just under 12 games per year over that span. Over the last six years, LA has appeared in the 8A Finals four times. LA NOT winning 11 games would be earth-shattering.
   • If one reviews the similar record for HC over the same nine year span, one will find that HC has won 11 games exactly once, but that occurred before I arrived in this glorious state in 2010, (let's call that Before Cap or BC for short,) so that doesn't count.
2. Probability based on 2017 performance to date - In order to evaluate the solidity of one's predictive position, we will use your best friend's favorite methodology: probability. As such, we will use two national rating service's predictor models as our base, then convert to probability using the spread-to-moneyline converter from the Sports Book Review (SBR.) While SBR provides guidance for both NFL and NCAA point spread conversion, they provide no such conversion for high school football. Don't worry, I have contacted their offices and made the suggestion to save you the call. So let's use the NCAA converter and look at those numbers
   • Calpreps - Calpreps has had a difficult go of it this year for me. Calpreps uses historical record as one factor in their predictions, but also relies on coach's enthusiasm as measured by preseason hype form submitted to the calpreps staff. Looking at the IL state rankings on Calpreps suggests they lack certain insight into the IL field, possibly caused by something as simple as a unsubmitted hype form.. For instance, I would imagine few in IL would take Rochester or Sterling in a face-to-face matchup with LA, yet both are considered far superior to your beloved based on the latest rankings. I wouldn't worry too much though as I gave up on Calpreps when my beloved didn't crack the Top 25 preseason and only recently found their way into the Top 20. Anyhoo, Calpreps lists the predicted score for this weekend, on a neutral field, as LA 26 - HC 17. If one properly considered the intimidation factor of the Wilmette faithful (well, certainly the surrounding 31 zip codes anyway,) that spread would be a bit higher. Using the spread-to-moneyline converter for a nine point spread using the NCAA table, we find a 25% probability that HC wins said game on a neutral field.
   • If we look at the Massey Score Predictor as found in the USATodayHSS website, one that allows factoring of home field advantage, we arrive at a predicted spread of 16 points. Converting a 16 point spread to probability we arrive at an 11.5% probability of HC victory.

So, if I am reading your premise correcting, your belief is that by correctly predicting a win that carries anywhere from a 75%-88.5% probability of occurrence, along with being the inflection point of change in the modern IL football history (the Year 8 AC to be exact) that would mark the end of one of the most successful runs of 11+ win seasons in the history (cap's history) of 8A (don't get offended @MS4EVER, I said "one of",) while also marking a turning point in the gridiron fortunes of our friends at HC by achieving success not seen since before there was ever an Allen under center, (this is my attempt at the longest sentence ever on the Edgy Board), you deserve praise and deference?

Let me see what I can do to rally some deference.

"Leads? Leads? I'll go back and check with the boys back in the crime lab. They have teams working in shifts....*shaking head incredulously* leads"

 

[MWittman]

I realize your post was directed at capnbill, but it's a pubic forum, so I'm going to be a buttinsky.

ramblinman:

My post at capn was referring to his thread titled Beth Bowl, which he started earlier this week and not my original thread from two weeks ago. It it, he inquired over penance if HC should win, to which Dean responded with typical snark I should be compelled to change my name on edgy if I am proved wrong.

Since the possibility exists I could be wrong (I don't underestimate opponents), I think it is entirely appropriate I extract some form of concession from those who would place a demand on me while the opportunity remains.

Although craven and reflecting very poorly on me, I will carry out with plans to pay Ms. Long in Monopoly money if HC wins.

 

[MWittman]

you deserve praise and deference? Let me see what I can do to rally some deference.

capn:

I can only imagine the response if I lose. I suspect there will be numerous keyboard warriors prepared to deliver an endless string of rebukes. An intrepid bunch, they are readying stinging ripostes.

However, even if I am right, I will have detractors lining up around the corner waiting to get their pound of flesh. This brigade of posters will vomit up stale excuses deflecting attention away from a possible LA win with complaints over weather, officiating, or a depleted roster.

Regardless, your effort to marshal support is greatly appreciated.

 

[RockSoup]

We have our thesauruses ready

 

[Bowie50]

capn:

I can only imagine the response if I lose. I suspect there will be numerous keyboard warriors prepared to deliver an endless string of rebukes. An intrepid bunch, they are readying stinging ripostes.

However, even if I am right, I will have detractors lining up around the corner waiting to get their pound of flesh. This brigade of posters will vomit up stale excuses deflecting attention away from a possible LA win with complaints over weather, officiating, or a depleted roster.

Regardless, your effort to marshal support is greatly appreciated.

C'mon man....

 

[GEPreps]

 

[kitty_bintingot]

HC by achieving success not seen since before there was ever an Allen under center,

Capn, that was a decisive post. I applaud your analysis. I'm not sure I totally follow the point about HC's success prior to an Allen being on the line, but for what it's worth (again, not sure totally sure what the point is about HC before the Allen brothers) the oldest Allen was the starting center his sophomore year when HC went down state.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Capn, that was a decisive post. I applaud your analysis. I'm not sure I totally follow the point about HC's success prior to an Allen being on the line, but for what it's worth (again, not sure totally sure what the point is about HC before the Allen brothers) the oldest Allen was the starting center his sophomore year when HC went down state.

I'm like Bluto from Animal House, I try not to let facts get in between me and a good story when I'm on a roll.

Everything before I arrived is old school, but I certainly have seen many years of Allen road paving since 2010.

 

[capnbillhitters]

capn:

I can only imagine the response if I lose. I suspect there will be numerous keyboard warriors prepared to deliver an endless string of rebukes. An intrepid bunch, they are readying stinging ripostes.

However, even if I am right, I will have detractors lining up around the corner waiting to get their pound of flesh. This brigade of posters will vomit up stale excuses deflecting attention away from a possible LA win with complaints over weather, officiating, or a depleted roster.

Regardless, your effort to marshal support is greatly appreciated.

Now cracks a noble heart.
Good night, sweet prince;
and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest

 

[ignazio]

Now cracks a noble heart.
Good night, sweet prince;
and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest

That line holds a special place in the hearts of all Ramblers.