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Feeto's Friday Upset Special....

Congratulations to all of the teams playing this weekend. As I say every year, there are no upsets on Championship weekend, because every team that has come this far deserves to win. It's been another great year, and we all owe a debt of thanks to our guy Edgy Tim for allowing us a place to nerd out over high school football. Thanks Edgy for all you do, it's appreciated. Good luck to everyone these next 2 days.

GO MC!!!

The movie that never was...A Marist 8A State Championship

Cheer up LWE! For what its worth. A great story was in the making this year only to be dashed by a common foe...Loyola. Marist should've beaten Loyola, if for no other reason, because I don't have a storyline if that doesn't happen. Then Marist gets revenge on Maine South after MS upset a far more talented Marist team a few years ago. Then LWE transfer QB Ritter returns home to beat his former school in a triumphant last minute running TD and is carried off the field by friend and foe. And then Marist finds itself back in the State Championship against York. First year Marist HC Fitz and Marist win handily and our curse is finally put to bed.

A guy can dream. Happy Thanksgiving everyone and best of luck to those still in the dance.

LA vs. York

Thoughts......Trap game for Hollywood? Mental let down after the hype of the LWE game? Or York under rated thrives in the role of underdog and plays free and easy and takes down the team that knocked them out the last two years for payback? I thought York gave them an excellent if not a better game then LWE (did in the finals) in the semi's last year to be honest! York O-line is huge and D-Line anchored by the ND recruit. QB super fast and RB pretty impressive. York is very good. I think this will be a close game for sure !

Multiplier plus SF?

What happens to a team that is subject to the SF penalty and is re-multiplied in the same year. Okay, for example, let’s say SHG makes it to the state finals the next two years. The multiplier comes back on, and they also qualify for the SF starting in 2027. There is also a chance that their current enrollment of about 500 dips to say 485. If that happens, the multiplier only moves them one class, 3A to 4A. So, is that it?

Monticello 23-20 final

Most insane ending I’ve seen. Monticello scored to take the lead. Tolono throws a screen pass to seemingly end it with 6 seconds left. Team and fans storm the field but Tolono apparently called timeout with one second left. Fans and team get taken off the field plus a 15 yard penalty is administered to Monticello. Tolono completes a 38 yard haul Mary that is negated for an illegal man downfield and the game ends. Monticello wins 23-20

MC vs SR Part 105

Let's discuss. It's my favorite game of the year, regardless of records or the final score, because these two programs are cut from the same cloth and while the fire will be lit and words will be exchanged during the game, it's become very clear over the years that there is an obvious respect that these teams and players have for one another, despite the occasional shoving match and heated exchange, you will see many of the players with a post game hug with one another as the opposing player may very well be his best friend since the first grade at St. Cajetan, St. John Fisher, Christ the King, St. Christina, Mount Greenwood or one of the numerous other great schools these young men come from. Enough sentimental talk though let's break it down.

MC has had a trying year, I've been critical of their defensive performance on many occasions this year, some warranted, some maybe over critical, and I was far from alone, but regardless of my two cents, here they are in the semifinals again. MC had been arguably the best in the State in the past two years, with Loyola stating their claim to that title as well, the only loses these teams had were to each other in 2022 and 2023. So MC fans were spoiled with unbelievable talent, many going on the D1 and other College programs, I watched Darrion Dupree have many meaningful carries vs the #1 team in the Nation last Saturday night as a true Freshman. So MC had to replace numerous star players, including 4 OL, all the WR's, both RB's, the entire DL, the Defensive player of the Year in Parker Startz, and both cornerbacks.....and the kicker! But they had two heart and souls of the team returning in Jack Elliott on Offense and Matt Mucha on Defense who I will discuss in a minute. Even as I typed this I'm aware that I might have been overly critical of their performance at times with all that they had to replace, but we are allowed as fans to be critical as long as we feel it's warranted. How did MC replace all that talent? Well they went young, which regardless of what happens Saturday will bode well for continued success in the upcoming years. On offense they replaced the 4 graduated OL with 4 juniors, who after taking their lumps, especially against a strong Hun DL in game 1, have really gelled as the season went on. At WR they were fortunate enough to get a transfer in Cooper Lehman who broke a single game receiving record and had a great season, Quinton Burrell who is only a Soph has had ridiculous numbers and is, I believe, over 1,000 yards in receiving and over 10 TDs, has been one of the best MC has had at WR and he's a Soph. Then in mid season they brought up Marshaun Thornton from the Freshman team for another added dynamic. On the freshman level he was a man among boys. At 6'3 we was averaging 2 to 3 TDS a game and doing it with ease. In my years I don't think I ever saw a freshman play the regular season on Varsity. He was brought up for the BR game for another possible weapon when Elliott was out with an injury and he looked like an upperclassman from the get go, making some mistakes but also some spectacular catches and touchdowns. RB has been a work in progress, at times showing life and at times being the flatlined. It was a gamble moving Danyil Taylor, a two year starter at TE to RB, but he is a powerful athlete who many saw potential as a RB after watching him run after the catch. I won't fault him, it's a huge adjustment and he has had some great games and runs and has over 10 TDs, RB position has been the MC bread and butter for decades and seeing it as a work in progress got some of the Boo Birds out, but my hand to God I definitely gave Taylor some rope here. They added in Madden Wilson near mid season and he's been really coming on. He's more of a traditional 5'10 RB.

Defensively is where you have heard me be critical. They have let up 261 points in 12 games after letting up under 150 in 14 the past two seasons. So you could see my and many other fans frustrations, but I also was aware that it was a work in progress, and while I have seen flashes of brilliance, I've also seen many plays where the youth and inexperience has shown. The Defense is also very young, 5 juniors, 2 Sophomores and 1 mammoth Freshmen in Caleb "Bonecrusher" Tucker in at nose! Several other players have been shuffled in to try to make the best fit, and it looks like they found the best 11 the past few weeks even though Sophomore MLB Roman Igwebuike left in an ambulance against Normal and I'm not sure what the status is. So now, my position breakdown vs. SR

Quarterback- Advantage MC. Fine job by SR's Armbruster and I heard he set SR's single season passing record, and he's just a junior! But he's going up against MC's Superman in Jack Elliott. He has shattered all MC QB records, has been the vocal and physical leader on and off the field, reminds me of Jordan Lynch and how he took NIU on his back and lead his junior and senior year by playing with ultimate toughness. And he missed the BR game, came back probably 3 weeks too soon and did what he could when he was obviously nowhere near full strength. He seems to be moving well and back to normal so let's see how he finishes his MC career.

Running Back- Advantage SR- as discussed above it was a work in progress for MC and this is where SR has their Superman in Nick Herman. He's put together a great senior ride and I know this games means a lot to him. He had a fumble in the 2022 semifinal that led to MC taking the lead and I know he will give everything he has this game to make up for that.

WR's- Advantage MC- See above for my assessment on the MC WR's I believe it's in paragraph 2, page 10 😀. SR had some good WRs, your QB doesn't break records without them but this is clear MC here.

OL- I'm going to go with even here. The 4 junior lineman have gelled well for MC and I have never seen a SR team without a good line so let's say it's a draw.

Defense
DL- Slight MC....SR has a 4 man front while MC, despite occasionally using a 4 man front, does a 3 man front with USC commit Junior Braedon Jones, Freshman Tucker at nose and then DE Junior Joey Quinn who has seen the D1 offers begin to come in with Iowa St and Kansas recently offering. I think Quinn has been great at DE, Tucker is 6'4 330 and can move, handling that position outstanding for a freshman, but I want to see more out of Jones. He draws double teams but I still want to see that next gear, he checks all the boxes physically. SR front is always tough. Is Daniher back? I saw him in and out but I know he's knee was banged up.

LB- Slight SR- how can this be slight SR with CCL Blue Defensive Player of the Year Mucha with MC? Because SR has the CCL Green Lawless Winner in Justin Buckner, and he's teamed up with James Kingsbury and Owen Lynch. If Roman was healthy I would make
this a draw but it didn't look good for him so this position goes to SR but not without giving major props to Matt Mucha who has a motor that never stops and makes tackle after tackle after tackle.

Secondary- Advantage MC- it was a work in progress for MC. Saw about 5 different combinations of DBs but I think they got it right now. Javy Payne is a D1 DB and had been playing through injury. He has 13 ints in 2 seasons. Zander Gorman goes 100mph, 100 % of the time and sometimes that costs him but he doesn't have an off switch. Sophomore Taveras Harrington has been tested by many teams but really has come along . At 6'2 I see him drawing numerous D1 offers soon. I admit I don't know much about this position from SRs side but I have heard they have had growing pains.

Special Teams- Normally hands down SR but I saw the kicker miss 4 FGs against Willowbrook. Despite that, this still goes to SR as I think MC had tried 1 FG, and made it, and I think they have punted maybe 6 times this year as Coach Lynch doesn't like to waste another try at a first down....live by the sword, die by the sword!

After all that, my prediction? Check back Friday! Cheers

Football Enrollment

Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.

Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.

Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.

Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024


ClassCurrent RangeFE Range
1A(0 - 292.5)(220 - 325)
2A(296.5 - 403.5)(325 - 436)
3A(406.5 - 542.5)(439 - 580)
4A(553 - 844)(581 - 997)
5A(848 - 1,272.5),(1,017 - 1,373)
6A(1,723 - 1,802)(1,377 - 1,666)
7A(1,604 - 2,156)(1,666 - 2,173)
8A(2,190 +)(2,190 +)

Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)

Classes to follow;

A Proposal for High School Football Playoffs

It has previously been suggested there should be three primary objectives of any playoff system. They are:
1) Provide a reasonable opportunity for IHSA member schools to participate in the playoffs.
2) Create a process that is transparent and relatively simple to understand and administer.
3) Promote some semblance of competitive balance within each class.
While most contributors to this message board have given the IHSA a good grade for the first two objectives, the third objective has received mixed reviews. The following proposal is intended to improve the competitive balance within the various classes, while at the same time have no negative impact on the first two objectives.

The criteria for creating the following brackets has been developed, but I will not lead with that. I will lead with the proposed 8A, 7A, 6A and 5A brackets that resulted from the new criteria. The reason for doing this is that the ultimate success of the new system will be determined by whether or not people intuitively believe competitive balance has been improved. Toward that end, I want your first impression to be the brackets themselves and not the criteria behind them. There will be time enough later for you to review the criteria and judge whether or not you think they are fair and objective. I personally think they are fair and objective.

I also ask that you evaluate the results realistically. If perfection is the standard, it will fail. Hopefully the proper question to be asked is, does the new system significantly improve competitive balance? Once again, I personally think it does. For example, the outcome of using the new criteria is that 13 teams were removed from the 2023 8A bracket. Those teams were either dropped down to 7A or were removed from the playoffs entirely. The 13 teams that replaced them were on average 16.35 points better than the removed teams (based on Massey ratings**). By replacing some teams with other teams that were better, the difference between the best teams in 8A and the worst teams in 8A has been compressed. This process has improved the competitive balance in the 8A classification.

**Note: Massey ratings were in no way used as part of the new criteria. They were used in this narrative solely as one piece of objective evidence demonstrating that competitive balance has been improved.

Here is the newly proposed 8A bracket for 2023:

Seed
1 - Loyola (9-0)
32 - Lake Park (4-5)

16 - Belleville East (7-2)
17 - Stevenson (7-2)

8 - Maine South (8-1)
25 - Jacobs (6-3)

9 - Hersey (9-0)
24 - Lyons Township (6-3)

4 - Edwardsville (8-1)
29 - Glenbrook South (4-5)

13 - Huntley (8-1)
20 - Lockport (5-4)

5 - Barrington (9-0)
28 - Benet (4-5)

12 - Glenbard West (7-2)
21 - Palatine (6-3)

11 - Prospect (7-2)
22 - Sandburg (6-3)

6 - Normal (9-0)
27 - Homewood-Flossmoor (5-4)

14 - Downers Grove North (7-2)
19 - Brother Rice (5-4)

3 - Mt. Carmel (8-1)
30 - O'Fallon (4-5)

10 - Warren (7-2)
23 - Downers Grove South (6-3)

7 - York (8-1)
26 - Marist (4-5)

15 - Hoffman Estates (6-3)
18 - St. Ignatius (6-3)

2 - Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
31 - Mundelein (4-5)

Questions and comments will be welcome, but it may be useful to wait until after the 7A, 6A and 5A brackets are released; as well as after the new playoff criteria are released. I need to do a little snow shoveling first, but the other information will be posted today.

MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

A special thanks to the greatest fans in high school football:
@k1867 @3OrangeWhips @refref01 @tuccs @BillyTheBuffoon @pjjp @80sRambler @MsDavis10 @Stella5 @BornNRazed @ESCC fan @RockSoup @stl705 @BoundaryCorner @McCaravan @ChicagoRambler @SiuCubFan8 @DMurph11 @Crusaderfan19 @K3D88 @RameyJacoby
Once again, you've all made this a memorable and interesting season. Watching the LA-MS game last Saturday, beautiful late fall day, two rivals, excitement - I could not imagine being anywhere else. Cheers to all our teams and followers!

Notre Dame (Niles, IL) at St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) Fri., Nov. 22, 7:00 pm
[projection and percent chances to win: St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) 27 (81%), [2024] Notre Dame (Niles, IL) 13 (19%)]

Wilmington (12-0) at Lombard (Montini) (10-2), Sat., Nov. 23, 1:00 pm
[projection and percent chances to win: Wilmington (IL) 20 (58%) Montini Catholic (Lombard, IL) 17 (42%)]

Chicago (DePaul) (9-3) at Coal City (10-2), Sat., Nov. 23, 1:00 pm

[projection and percent chances to win: Coal City (IL) 28 (60%) DePaul College Prep (Chicago, IL) 24 (40%)]

Wheaton (St. Francis) (10-2) at LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy) (10-2), Sat., Nov. 23, 1:00 pm

[projection and percent chances to win: Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) 35 (80%) St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 22 (20%)]

Morris (8-4) at Joliet (Catholic Academy) (9-3), Sat., Nov. 23, 2:00 pm

[projection and percent chances to win: Joliet Catholic Academy (Joliet, IL) 42 (98%) Morris (IL) 7 (2%)]

Chicago (Mt. Carmel) (9-3) at Chicago (St. Rita) (10-2), Sat., Nov. 23, 3:00 pm

[projection and percent chances to win: #174 Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 31 (74%) St. Rita (Chicago, IL) 21 (26%)]

Wilmette (Loyola Academy) (10-2) at Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) (12-0), Sat., Nov. 23, 6:00 pm

[projection and percent chances to win: Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 26 (65%) Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) 19 (35%)]

New: My Preliminary Week 14 Class 8A thru Class 4A Top 10 polls

Preliminary Week 14 EDGYTIM Class 8A thru Class 4A Top 10 polls

Class 8A


1. Loyola 11-2 (2) next: Class 8A State Title Game vs York
2 Lincoln Way East 12-1 (1) Class 8A State Title Game vs Loyola
3. York 11-2 (4) Season Completed
4. Naperville Central 11-2 (3) Season Completed
5. Lyons Township 11-1 (5)
6. Maine South 8-4 (6)
7. Oswego 10-1 (7)
8. Marist 9-2 (8)
9. Warren Township 7-5 (9)
10. Stevenson 10-2 (10)

Out: Noine

Class 7A

1. Chicago Mount Carmel 10-3 (1) Next: Class 7A State Title Game vs Batavia
2. Batavia 12-1 (3) Next: Class 7A State Title Game vs Mount Carmel
3. St Rita 10-3 (2) Season Completed
4. Downers Grove North 10-2 (4)
5. Normal Community 10-2 (5)
6. Lincoln Way Central 9-4 (6) Season Completed
7. Quincy 11-1 (7)
8. Prospect 8-3 (8)
9. Fenwick 8-3 (9)
10. Bradley 9-2 (10)

Out: None

Class 6A

1. East St Louis 12-1 (1) Next: Class 6A State Title Game vs Geneva
2. Geneva 12-1 (3) Next: Class 6A State Title Game vs East St. Louis
3. Cary Grove 12-1 (1) Season Completed
4. Oak Lawn Richards 11-2 (4) Season Completed
5. Lake Forest 9-2 (5)
6. Kankakee 10-1 (6)
7. Glenwood 9-2 (7)
8. Libertyville 9-2 (8)
9. Belvidere North 10-1 (9)
10. Washington 8-3 (10)

Out: None

Class 5A

1. Nazareth Academy 11-2 (1) Next: Class 5A State Title Game vs JCA
2. Joliet Catholic 10-3 (3) Next: Class 5A State Title Game vs Nazareth Academy
3. Wheaton St Francis 10-3 (2) Season Completed
4. Sycamore 11-1 (4)
5. Morris 8-5 (5) Season Completed
6. Peoria 9-3 (6)
7. Morgan Park 10-2 (7)
8. Rochelle 10-2 (8)
9. Prairie Ridge 8-3 (9)
10. Benet Academy 7-4 (10)

Out: None

Class 4A


1. DePaul Prep 10-3 (1) Next: Class 4A Stte Title Game vs Mt. Zion
2. Mt. Zion 10-3 (4) Next: Class 4A State Title Game vs DePaul Prep
3. Coal City 10-3 (2) Season Completed
4. UHigh 10-3 (3) Season Completed
5. St Laurence 8-4 (5)
6. Dixon 10-2 (6)
7. Wheaton Academy 9-2 (7)
8. Breese Central 11-1 (8)
9. Cahokia 9-2 (9)
10. Peoria Notre Dame 6-5 (10)

Out: None

Prep Bowl Info - Friday, 29 November - Whitney Young v St. Ignatius - 11:00 am at St. Ignatius

The Wolfpack are headed to the Chicago Prep Bowl, one of the oldest and most storied football championships in Illinois.
The annual game showcases a Chicago Catholic League champion and a Chicago Public League champion. Until the IHSA formed its own state championship playoffs in 1974, the Prep Bowl was the most recognized championship in both Chicago and Illinois. Since then, the tradition continues pitting representatives between the two leagues in an annual year-end matchup for the Prep Bowl Championship.

With a 33-0 victory over Notre Dame on Friday, the Pack advance to the Prep Bowl this Friday, November 29, to face the 12-1 Whitney Young Dolphins. The game will kickoff at 11:00 AM and be held on Fornelli Field. Tickets will only be sold through GoFan at https://gofan.co/event/2347572?schoolId=IL15679. The game may be streamed through HudlTV at https://fan.hudl.com/usa/il/chicago/organization/6531/saint-ignatius-high-school. Parking will be available in the Roosevelt/Racine lot. Entrance to the field is accessible via the parking lot on Roosevelt/Blue Island.

This will be the second time in program history that the Wolfpack are in the Chicago Prep Bowl. In 2017, the Pack were defeated by Simeon 19-16 at Gately Stadium. The Chicago Catholic League leads the all-time series in the Prep Bowl against the Chicago Public League 63-28-2.
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