My Take: Which 3-3/2-4 Teams Reach 5 wins?

[EdgyTim]

Just decided to look into these teams a bit this week.....feel free to comment add thoughts etc.

3-3 Teams I feel have a good shot at 5 Wins

Normal Community vs Dohn Prep Ohio @ PND and then hosting Manual...I like the Ironmen chances.

Danville vs Central @ Richwood then a forfeit win over Urbana

Marist @ Montini vs Carmel then @ Rice in Week 9. Definitely doable but I would prefer the Redhawks lock up 5 before Week 9

Benet Academy @ St Joe Indiana @ JCA then vs Nazareth Academy....it won't be easy but still doable.

Westinghouse vs The Nerds vs Lane @ Brooks

Cary Grove @ Jacobs @ Burlington Central vs Hampshire....another one that won't be easy but...

Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru. Marengo this week will be a critical game in my opinion

Marengo vs Kaneland @ Manual vs Plano

Johnsburg @ Richmond Burton vs Woodstock vs Harvard Survive this week then get the last two I'm thinking.

Ridgewood vs Westmont (forfeit win) @ Aurora Central Catholic vs Chicago Christian

Aurora Christian @ Elmwood Park vs St. Edward @ Wheaton Academy

Troy @ Jerseyville vs Waterloo vs Lincoln

Marion @ Centralia vs Carbondale @ Mattoon

Belleville Althoff vs Carbondale vs Cahokia vs Alton Odds are against the Crusaders here but...

Hillcrest vs Tinley Park vs Lemont @ Oak Forest Last two games a huge for the Hawks.

Reavis @ Oak Lawn @ TF North @ Richards

Rich Township vs Crete vs TRidge @ Leo- @ Leo will be the swing game here.

Libertyville @ Mundelein vs Zion @ Stevenson A must win this week in my minds for the Naughty Kitties.

Stevenson @ Zion vs Waukegan vs Libertyville win the next two and all good for the Patriots. Week 9 could be epic

Belleville East @ Edwardsville vs Belleville West vs Granite City It always seems to come down to West and East...

Larkin @ Bartlett vs Elgin vs West Chicago- The annual rivalry game with Larkin once again looms large for the Royals.

Downers Grove South vs AT @ Morton vs Leyden



3-3 Teams Right Now That Are a Coin Flip in My Mind

Brother Rice @JCA vs Marian Catholic vs Marist Huge game this week at JCA

Marian Catholic vs DeLaSalle @ Brother Rice vs Carmel....again this won't be easy...

Montini Catholic vs Marist vs Nazareth @ JCA Tough task and really this is playoff week for Montini

Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru

Phillips @ Lane Tech vs Clark @ Kenwood Must win this week and next

Lakes @Wauconda @ Grant vs Grayslake Central Again this will not be easy....

Mundelein vs Libertyville @ Lake Zurich vs Lake Forest Playoffs also begin this week for the Mustangs.

Bradley vs Andrew @ Staff vs LW East Must wins this week and next for the Boilermakers.

Lincoln Way West @ LWC @ Andrew vs H-F- Must wins this week and next as well.

Willowbrook vs Hinsdale South @ York vs Morton- Must win this week for sure.

Hinsdale Central vs York @ Proviso West vs Glenbard West I feel good about Week 8....

OPRF vs Proviso West @DGN vs York- Must win this week and next.


The Mid (dle of the Road at best) Illini-
Metamora seems to have the best path to me.
Washington
Morton
Metamora

The Central Suburban No(where)rth-
No idea here....literally flip a coin or two.
Deerfield
Maine West
Highland Park

The Southwest Prairie (L)East?
Someone is going to get into the postseason...this Saturday at Central will tell us a lot more.
Plainfield South
Plainfield Central

3-3 Teams I feel won't make the 5 wins Cut

Peoria Notre Dame
Bloomington
St. Laurence Early season losses no question hurting the Vikings changes.
DePaul Prep
Fenwick Young team that could be hurt big time by the Week 8 open date.
U High
Lisle
Bishop McNamara
Buffalo Grove
Wheeling
Schaumburg
Elgin


2-4 Teams who Could Make the Dream Still Happen?

Champaign Central @ Danville @ Bloomington vs Richwoods Again it's a long shot but not out of the realm of possibility

Nazareth Academy vs Leo @ Montini @ Benet Academy - Maybe I'm drinking powder blue Kooi Aid but this looks really, really interesting

Central (formerly known as Burlington Central)- @ CLC vs Cary Grove @ McHenry- The Rockets have played some of the upper crust FVC teams pretty tough and they have a shot.

Marmion Academy @ Carmel vs Leo @ DeLaSalle It's definitely possible here for the Cadets.

Chicago Christian vs Auriora Central Catholic @ Indy Phalen @ Ridgewood The Knights also have a very realistic shot here.

Shepard @ Evergreen Park vs Argo @ Eisenhower- The Astros have lost some close games this season...and lady lucky wake up in time to help?

 

[NNFAN]

* What a shame it would be to see Marist or Brother Rice miss the playoffs. I think Marist knocks off Montini and Carmel so the BR game (week nine) will matter less. BR should handle Marian but will have to beat JCA or Marist. Not gonna be easy. Imagine having Marist, JCA, MC, Rita, and Loyola on your schedule.

* Don't see Hinsdale Central getting past York or Glenbard West. Not enough offense. BTW.. talk about a back loaded schedule, GW still has DGN (5-1), Lyons (5-1), and HC to close things out after losing to undefeated York.

 

[Coach Percy]

Wow no Clark huh? Taft 1-5 @Phillips 3-3 and Curie 2-4 to finish the season

 

[Vincennes6410]

* What a shame it would be to see Marist or Brother Rice miss the playoffs. I think Marist knocks off Montini and Carmel so the BR game (week nine) will matter less. BR should handle Marian but will have to beat JCA or Marist. Not gonna be easy. Imagine having Marist, JCA, MC, Rita, and Loyola on your schedule.

* Don't see Hinsdale Central getting past York or Glenbard West. Not enough offense. BTW.. talk about a back loaded schedule, GW still has DGN (5-1), Lyons (5-1), and HC to close things out after losing to undefeated York.

Soucie saying 4 win teams may get into playoffs this year. Not sure on the particulars.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Soucie saying 4 win teams may get into playoffs this year. Not sure on the particulars.

According to his best estimate, I think he said any 4-win team/s that did get in would have to have playoff points in the mid-to high 40s at a minimum. Higher points than that would of course get in first (barring a conference champ who happened to have 4 wins. At least that's my understanding).

 

[EdgyTim]

According to his best estimate, I think he said any 4-win team/s that did get in would have to have playoff points in the mid-to high 40s at a minimum. Higher points than that would of course get in first (barring a conference champ who happened to have 4 wins. At least that's my understanding).

Time to include 5-4/4-5 all in the same pool then sort them out by playoff points....

 

[atrain97]

Could Cary Grove's streak of 18 years making the playoffs and winning at least a first round game be over this year?

 

[CCHS-Fan]

That’s crazy.

I think I’m certain I was at Coach Kay’s first ever playoff appearance game w/C-G and it was a ‘L’.

Vs. Wauconda of all teams!

 

[atrain97]

That’s crazy.

I think I’m certain I was at Coach Kay’s first ever playoff appearance game w/C-G and it was a ‘L’.

Vs. Wauconda of all teams!

I remember going to see them play MC in the playoffs in the late 90s, before i was even thinking of moving to Cary.

EVery year since 2004, playoffs with at least a 1st round win.

 

[greatgig13]

I remember going to see them play MC in the playoffs in the late 90s, before i was even thinking of moving to Cary.

EVery year since 2004, playoffs with at least a 1st round win.

I played there a few years before Kay took over and playoffs were a pipe dream. Be happy for that long run.

 

[CCHS-Fan]

I was at the same C-G vs. MC game @
C-G.

 

[FballDaddy]

My team got missed, so I'll be the homer....
Antioch: home games vs Grant and Round Lake and away at Grayslake Central. Should get all 3.
Just a shame they let 2 plays make them a 6-3 team instead of 8-1 .

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Could Cary Grove's streak of 18 years making the playoffs and winning at least a first round game be over this year?

I hope not. Would be strange not seeing the Trojans take the field in all their Penn State-like sartorial splendor!

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

* What a shame it would be to see Marist or Brother Rice miss the playoffs. I think Marist knocks off Montini and Carmel so the BR game (week nine) will matter less. BR should handle Marian but will have to beat JCA or Marist. Not gonna be easy. Imagine having Marist, JCA, MC, Rita, and Loyola on your schedule.

* Don't see Hinsdale Central getting past York or Glenbard West. Not enough offense. BTW.. talk about a back loaded schedule, GW still has DGN (5-1), Lyons (5-1), and HC to close things out after losing to undefeated York.

Marist, JCA, MC, Rita and Loyola on my schedule? No, thanks!!

 

[olderbytheminute]

I made this point weeks ago regarding 10-team closed conferences and the playoff dilemma. Guestimates. on this threat suggest that the 4-5 teams that will qualify for the playoffs this year will be the ones with somewhere around 46- to 50-plus playoff points (that is total wins by a 4-5 team's nine opponents.
In a 10-team, closed conference (and there are SEVEN of them), it is basically impossible for a 4-5 team to make the postseason. That's because the most playoff points a 4-5 club in a 10-team closed conference can get is 41.
Here's the math: In a 10-team closed league, there are five games each week for nine weeks for a total of 45 winners. But 4 of those 45 winners go to a school that finishes 4-5, so the on number of playoff points a 4-5 team can get is 41. And clearly, by my own checking out and seeing what others have to say, there is absolutely no w ay a 4-5 team with 41 playoff points is going to be in action on Halloween weekend.
Once the 4-5 playoff thing becomes a norm, I am guessing that 10-team leagues. will morph into two five-team divisions, playing four "division. games" maybe three crossovers, and then scheduling two non-conference games that fit your scheduling purposes. If you need wins to get to five, those two non-league games can be against bottom feeders. If you need playoff points, you schedule games against teams that you are sure will win a lot of game so if they beat you, they still help you with points. A five-team league may not give a division an automatic playoff bid, but in reality, how many times is a team going to be good enough to win a five-team division and not good enough to win five games?
Since the 4-5 playoff team hasn't been a factor yet, this 10-team closed league thing hasn't been an issue.
I am guessing that we are about three weekends away from it becoming such an issue.

 

[EdgyTim]

I made this point weeks ago regarding 10-team closed conferences and the playoff dilemma. Guestimates. on this threat suggest that the 4-5 teams that will qualify for the playoffs this year will be the ones with somewhere around 46- to 50-plus playoff points (that is total wins by a 4-5 team's nine opponents.
In a 10-team, closed conference (and there are SEVEN of them), it is basically impossible for a 4-5 team to make the postseason. That's because the most playoff points a 4-5 club in a 10-team closed conference can get is 41.
Here's the math: In a 10-team closed league, there are five games each week for nine weeks for a total of 45 winners. But 4 of those 45 winners go to a school that finishes 4-5, so the on number of playoff points a 4-5 team can get is 41. And clearly, by my own checking out and seeing what others have to say, there is absolutely no w ay a 4-5 team with 41 playoff points is going to be in action on Halloween weekend.
Once the 4-5 playoff thing becomes a norm, I am guessing that 10-team leagues. will morph into two five-team divisions, playing four "division. games" maybe three crossovers, and then scheduling two non-conference games that fit your scheduling purposes. If you need wins to get to five, those two non-league games can be against bottom feeders. If you need playoff points, you schedule games against teams that you are sure will win a lot of game so if they beat you, they still help you with points. A five-team league may not give a division an automatic playoff bid, but in reality, how many times is a team going to be good enough to win a five-team division and not good enough to win five games?
Since the 4-5 playoff team hasn't been a factor yet, this 10-team closed league thing hasn't been an issue.
I am guessing that we are about three weekends away from it becoming such an issue.

Great observation....

 

[CCHS-Fan]

My team got missed, so I'll be the homer....
Antioch: home games vs Grant and Round Lake and away at Grayslake Central. Should get all 3.
Just a shame they let 2 plays make them a 6-3 team instead of 8-1 .

Antioch will get in.

I wouldn’t want them as a rematch.

 

[stl705]

Small School 3-3 Fun in the “3” Rivers:

Spring Valley Hall (3-3) has games left against Sterling Newman (3-3), St Bede (6-0), and Bureau Valley (1-4).

Sterling Newman (3-3) has games left against SV Hall (3-3), Mendota (3-3), and Kewanee (2-4).

Mendota (3-3) has games left against Kewanee (2-4), Sterling Newman (3-3), and St Bede (6-0).

 

[Formicidae13]

Effingham @ Lincoln is an interesting battle(and mascot matchup) of 3-3 squads. Both teams have very low chances in week 9, but both should be considered favorites in week 8(Lincoln a heavy one and Effingham a slight one).
Based on that, this is pretty much a win or go home for both squads. The visiting Flaming Hearts are probably the favorites, but the Railsplitters haven't made the playoffs since Reagan was reelected.

 

[FballDaddy]

Antioch will get in.

I wouldn’t want them as a rematch.

@CCHS-Fan That penalty on 4th down in the end zone was one of the plays I was referring to......not complaining about the refs, but UGH! Hopefully the stay focused and win out so they can get another chance!

 

[Formicidae13]

@EdgyTim Althoff and Troy are now 4-2 after Mt. Vernon forfeited earlier wins to them. The Rams join the 3-3 group and have a tough finish with Cahokia, Centralia, and Mt. Carmel

 

[Wittymoniker1]

Just decided to look into these teams a bit this week.....feel free to comment add thoughts etc. 3-3 Teams I feel have a good shot at 5 Wins Normal Community vs Dohn Prep Ohio @ PND and then hosting Manual...I like the Ironmen chances. Danville vs Central @ Richwood then a forfeit win over Urbana Marist @ Montini vs Carmel then @ Rice in Week 9. Definitely doable but I would prefer the Redhawks lock up 5 before Week 9 Benet Academy @ St Joe Indiana @ JCA then vs Nazareth Academy....it won't be easy but still doable. Westinghouse vs The Nerds vs Lane @ Brooks Cary Grove @ Jacobs @ Burlington Central vs Hampshire....another one that won't be easy but... Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru. Marengo this week will be a critical game in my opinion Marengo vs Kaneland @ Manual vs Plano Johnsburg @ Richmond Burton vs Woodstock vs Harvard Survive this week then get the last two I'm thinking. Ridgewood vs Westmont (forfeit win) @ Aurora Central Catholic vs Chicago Christian Aurora Christian @ Elmwood Park vs St. Edward @ Wheaton Academy Troy @ Jerseyville vs Waterloo vs Lincoln Marion @ Centralia vs Carbondale @ Mattoon Belleville Althoff vs Carbondale vs Cahokia vs Alton Odds are against the Crusaders here but... Hillcrest vs Tinley Park vs Lemont @ Oak Forest Last two games a huge for the Hawks. Reavis @ Oak Lawn @ TF North @ Richards Rich Township vs Crete vs TRidge @ Leo- @ Leo will be the swing game here. Libertyville @ Mundelein vs Zion @ Stevenson A must win this week in my minds for the Naughty Kitties. Stevenson @ Zion vs Waukegan vs Libertyville win the next two and all good for the Patriots. Week 9 could be epic Belleville East @ Edwardsville vs Belleville West vs Granite City It always seems to come down to West and East... Larkin @ Bartlett vs Elgin vs West Chicago- The annual rivalry game with Larkin once again looms large for the Royals. Downers Grove South vs AT @ Morton vs Leyden 3-3 Teams Right Now That Are a Coin Flip in My Mind Brother Rice @JCA vs Marian Catholic vs Marist Huge game this week at JCA Marian Catholic vs DeLaSalle @ Brother Rice vs Carmel....again this won't be easy... Montini Catholic vs Marist vs Nazareth @ JCA Tough task and really this is playoff week for Montini Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru Phillips @ Lane Tech vs Clark @ Kenwood Must win this week and next Lakes @Wauconda @ Grant vs Grayslake Central Again this will not be easy.... Mundelein vs Libertyville @ Lake Zurich vs Lake Forest Playoffs also begin this week for the Mustangs. Bradley vs Andrew @ Staff vs LW East Must wins this week and next for the Boilermakers. Lincoln Way West @ LWC @ Andrew vs H-F- Must wins this week and next as well. Willowbrook vs Hinsdale South @ York vs Morton- Must win this week for sure. Hinsdale Central vs York @ Proviso West vs Glenbard West I feel good about Week 8.... OPRF vs Proviso West @DGN vs York- Must win this week and next. The Mid (dle of the Road at best) Illini- Metamora seems to have the best path to me. Washington Morton Metamora The Central Suburban No(where)rth- No idea here....literally flip a coin or two. Deerfield Maine West Highland Park The Southwest Prairie (L)East? Someone is going to get into the postseason...this Saturday at Central will tell us a lot more. Plainfield South Plainfield Central 3-3 Teams I feel won't make the 5 wins Cut Peoria Notre Dame Bloomington St. Laurence Early season losses no question hurting the Vikings changes. DePaul Prep Fenwick Young team that could be hurt big time by the Week 8 open date. U High Lisle Bishop McNamara Buffalo Grove Wheeling Schaumburg Elgin 2-4 Teams who Could Make the Dream Still Happen? Champaign Central @ Danville @ Bloomington vs Richwoods Again it's a long shot but not out of the realm of possibility Nazareth Academy vs Leo @ Montini @ Benet Academy - Maybe I'm drinking powder blue Kooi Aid but this looks really, really interesting Central (formerly known as Burlington Central)- @ CLC vs Cary Grove @ McHenry- The Rockets have played some of the upper crust FVC teams pretty tough and they have a shot. Marmion Academy @ Carmel vs Leo @ DeLaSalle It's definitely possible here for the Cadets. Chicago Christian vs Auriora Central Catholic @ Indy Phalen @ Ridgewood The Knights also have a very realistic shot here. Shepard @ Evergreen Park vs Argo @ Eisenhower- The Astros have lost some close games this season...and lady lucky wake up in time to help?

Just decided to look into these teams a bit this week.....feel free to comment add thoughts etc. 3-3 Teams I feel have a good shot at 5 Wins Normal Community vs Dohn Prep Ohio @ PND and then hosting Manual...I like the Ironmen chances. Danville vs Central @ Richwood then a forfeit win over Urbana Marist @ Montini vs Carmel then @ Rice in Week 9. Definitely doable but I would prefer the Redhawks lock up 5 before Week 9 Benet Academy @ St Joe Indiana @ JCA then vs Nazareth Academy....it won't be easy but still doable. Westinghouse vs The Nerds vs Lane @ Brooks Cary Grove @ Jacobs @ Burlington Central vs Hampshire....another one that won't be easy but... Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru. Marengo this week will be a critical game in my opinion Marengo vs Kaneland @ Manual vs Plano Johnsburg @ Richmond Burton vs Woodstock vs Harvard Survive this week then get the last two I'm thinking. Ridgewood vs Westmont (forfeit win) @ Aurora Central Catholic vs Chicago Christian Aurora Christian @ Elmwood Park vs St. Edward @ Wheaton Academy Troy @ Jerseyville vs Waterloo vs Lincoln Marion @ Centralia vs Carbondale @ Mattoon Belleville Althoff vs Carbondale vs Cahokia vs Alton Odds are against the Crusaders here but... Hillcrest vs Tinley Park vs Lemont @ Oak Forest Last two games a huge for the Hawks. Reavis @ Oak Lawn @ TF North @ Richards Rich Township vs Crete vs TRidge @ Leo- @ Leo will be the swing game here. Libertyville @ Mundelein vs Zion @ Stevenson A must win this week in my minds for the Naughty Kitties. Stevenson @ Zion vs Waukegan vs Libertyville win the next two and all good for the Patriots. Week 9 could be epic Belleville East @ Edwardsville vs Belleville West vs Granite City It always seems to come down to West and East... Larkin @ Bartlett vs Elgin vs West Chicago- The annual rivalry game with Larkin once again looms large for the Royals. Downers Grove South vs AT @ Morton vs Leyden 3-3 Teams Right Now That Are a Coin Flip in My Mind Brother Rice @JCA vs Marian Catholic vs Marist Huge game this week at JCA Marian Catholic vs DeLaSalle @ Brother Rice vs Carmel....again this won't be easy... Montini Catholic vs Marist vs Nazareth @ JCA Tough task and really this is playoff week for Montini Kaneland @ Marengo @ Woodstock North vs LaSalle Peru Phillips @ Lane Tech vs Clark @ Kenwood Must win this week and next Lakes @Wauconda @ Grant vs Grayslake Central Again this will not be easy.... Mundelein vs Libertyville @ Lake Zurich vs Lake Forest Playoffs also begin this week for the Mustangs. Bradley vs Andrew @ Staff vs LW East Must wins this week and next for the Boilermakers. Lincoln Way West @ LWC @ Andrew vs H-F- Must wins this week and next as well. Willowbrook vs Hinsdale South @ York vs Morton- Must win this week for sure. Hinsdale Central vs York @ Proviso West vs Glenbard West I feel good about Week 8.... OPRF vs Proviso West @DGN vs York- Must win this week and next. The Mid (dle of the Road at best) Illini- Metamora seems to have the best path to me. Washington Morton Metamora The Central Suburban No(where)rth- No idea here....literally flip a coin or two. Deerfield Maine West Highland Park The Southwest Prairie (L)East? Someone is going to get into the postseason...this Saturday at Central will tell us a lot more. Plainfield South Plainfield Central 3-3 Teams I feel won't make the 5 wins Cut Peoria Notre Dame Bloomington St. Laurence Early season losses no question hurting the Vikings changes. DePaul Prep Fenwick Young team that could be hurt big time by the Week 8 open date. U High Lisle Bishop McNamara Buffalo Grove Wheeling Schaumburg Elgin 2-4 Teams who Could Make the Dream Still Happen? Champaign Central @ Danville @ Bloomington vs Richwoods Again it's a long shot but not out of the realm of possibility Nazareth Academy vs Leo @ Montini @ Benet Academy - Maybe I'm drinking powder blue Kooi Aid but this looks really, really interesting Central (formerly known as Burlington Central)- @ CLC vs Cary Grove @ McHenry- The Rockets have played some of the upper crust FVC teams pretty tough and they have a shot. Marmion Academy @ Carmel vs Leo @ DeLaSalle It's definitely possible here for the Cadets. Chicago Christian vs Auriora Central Catholic @ Indy Phalen @ Ridgewood The Knights also have a very realistic shot here. Shepard @ Evergreen Park vs Argo @ Eisenhower- The Astros have lost some close games this season...and lady lucky wake up in time to help?

 

[Wittymoniker1]

Love this thread. Kinda has a Soucie feel to it.

 

[net-se]

you have to add mt. vernon to the 3-3 list now. cahokia, centralia and mt. carmel left. i think they can go 5-4.

 

[greatgig13]

Jacobs takes CG to the wood shed. Wow. I don’t know how they recover and make the playoffs.

 

[Mateesen14]

Time to include 5-4/4-5 all in the same pool then sort them out by playoff points....

Love it Edgy! I would pool 5-4 and 4-5 teams and not do playoff points but rather total wins by teams you defeated. The example would be 2 teams that play in a 10 team conference like the Big Northern with 9 conference games, a 4-5 team would have 41 playoff points vs 40 playoff points for a 5-4 team. Love the concept though.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Love it Edgy! I would pool 5-4 and 4-5 teams and not do playoff points but rather total wins by teams you defeated. The example would be 2 teams that play in a 10 team conference like the Big Northern with 9 conference games, a 4-5 team would have 41 playoff points vs 40 playoff points for a 5-4 team. Love the concept though.

Is there still the possibility that some 4-5 teams make it from what you understand?