In the current 1A-8A class system, where does the largest jump in team ability occur?

[rocketnation]

From 1A to 2A
From 2A to 3A
From 3A to 4A
From 4A to 5A
From 5A to 6A
From 6A to 7A
From 7A to 8A

Strictly from watching the state title games and knowing there are individual team exceptions to the rule, I see the biggest jumps in team ability occur (1) from 6A to 7A and (2) 3A to 4A.

 

[JCHillmen]

From 1A to 2A
From 2A to 3A
From 3A to 4A
From 4A to 5A
From 5A to 6A
From 6A to 7A
From 7A to 8A

Strictly from watching the state title games and knowing there are individual team exceptions to the rule, I see the biggest jumps in team ability occur (1) from 6A to 7A and (2) 3A to 4A.

3A to 4A is a big leap.

And 7A to 8A is probably the biggest leap. At least in terms of depth, there just aren't as many quality 7A teams as there are in 8A. I don't know if most of the 7A quarterfinalists are sniffing the top 10 in 8A. Probably just MC and maybe Batavia.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... An impossible question with so many variables. But I will take a crack. I learned quite a bit when SHG was in the 4A postseason for two years. So 4A to 5A is like night and day. Other then that weird game in Waterloo it was like the Cyclones were playing the very bottom tier of the CS8 (and some of those teams would give 4A schools trouble) where I could bug out at half time and sit under the tent listening to the rest of the game eating then cold burgers and cheetoes. Note like SHG I exclude JCA that ended up in that class because of the covid ruling. 4A Rochester of course as well. Props to them.

5A to 6A is another one. Once again I use SHG as an example. Some success when they were pushed into 6A by the way. I noticed in the opposition more team speed by sheer numbers and the ability to wear the Cyclones down by large rosters. I use Crete Monee as an example. The Cycs hung with them for most of that game. But the Warriors would send in large groups of second teamers every bit as good as the then weary SHG starters. Hard to overcome something like that. And the 2016 PR game and yes I know they had superman was over at half time. Talented rosters with enough good football players for two teams in 6A. I don't see that in 5A as a rule. Ratsy

 

[colin2229]

2A ➡️3A

Start to get into more sophisticated schemes and more athletes.

 

[IceConGuy]

I think as you start jumping from from each class you can see a jump because as @cornerrat said, the roster sizes lead to a greater probability of gaining depth. I think this starts becoming more evident starting with the 3a to 4a jump. Each additional jump adds to this as well as an increase in available coaching staff. I watched Rochester on NFH a few times the past year, and it was crazy to see the amount of coaches compared to the upper mid level 4a squads. I am guessing that this continues as you go up in classification.

 

[Alexander32]

It may depend on whether you are talking about all high schools in a given class (approximately 64 teams), or the entire playoff field in a given class (32 teams), or the top teams in a given class (semifinalists = 4 teams). You mention "from watching the state title games", so I suppose you are talking about the top teams. For what it is worth, here is the average CalPreps power rating for the four semifinalists in each class for 2023.

8A = 50.1
7A = 45.6 (4.5 points behind 8A)
6A = 35.0 (10.6 points behind 7A)
5A = 37.3 (2.3 points ahead of 6A)
4A = 27.3 (10.0 points behind 5A)
3A = 24.4 (2.9 points behind 4A)
2A = 16.2 (8.2 points behind 3A)
1A = 23.5 (7.3 points ahead of 2A)

That would seem to narrow things to three possibilities: The jump from 6A to 7A, the jump from 4A to 5A, or the jump from 2A to 3A.

Here is a list of the 13 regular season games played this past year between semifinal teams from different classes.

8A Loyola defeated 7A Mt. Carmel 23-21
8A Lincoln-Way East defeated 7A Batavia 14-13
8A York defeated 7A Downers Grove North 32-21
8A York defeated 5A Nazareth 42-13
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 6A East St. Louis 36-33
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 5A Providence 43-9
7A Downers Grove North defeated 5A St. Francis 27-22
5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini 24-23
5A St. Francis defeated 4A St. Laurence 42-28
5A Providence defeated 3A Montini 38-7
5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence 31-24
4A St. Laurence lost to 3A Montini 24-17
4A Wheaton Academy lost to 1A Hope Academy 30-29

Given how closely East St. Louis played Mt. Carmel, I will eliminate the 6A to 7A jump from consideration. Given that 5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence, 5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini, and we saw Rochester successfully make the jump to 5A in 2019, I will eliminate the 4A to 5A jump from consideration. Therefore, in my humble opinion, I will say the largest jump in team ability is from 2A to 3A. I think both Byron and Montini would have handled Wilmington fairly easily this past season (by 14 or more points). In fact, Wilmington has struggled a bit in the past when they have had to play in the 3A bracket.

 

[rocketnation]

It may depend on whether you are talking about all high schools in a given class (approximately 64 teams), or the entire playoff field in a given class (32 teams), or the top teams in a given class (semifinalists = 4 teams). You mention "from watching the state title games", so I suppose you are talking about the top teams. For what it is worth, here is the average CalPreps power rating for the four semifinalists in each class for 2023.

8A = 50.1
7A = 45.6 (4.5 points behind 8A)
6A = 35.0 (10.6 points behind 7A)
5A = 37.3 (2.3 points ahead of 6A)
4A = 27.3 (10.0 points behind 5A)
3A = 24.4 (2.9 points behind 4A)
2A = 16.2 (8.2 points behind 3A)
1A = 23.5 (7.3 points ahead of 2A)

That would seem to narrow things to three possibilities: The jump from 6A to 7A, the jump from 4A to 5A, or the jump from 2A to 3A.

Here is a list of the 13 regular season games played this past year between semifinal teams from different classes.

8A Loyola defeated 7A Mt. Carmel 23-21
8A Lincoln-Way East defeated 7A Batavia 14-13
8A York defeated 7A Downers Grove North 32-21
8A York defeated 5A Nazareth 42-13
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 6A East St. Louis 36-33
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 5A Providence 43-9
7A Downers Grove North defeated 5A St. Francis 27-22
5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini 24-23
5A St. Francis defeated 4A St. Laurence 42-28
5A Providence defeated 3A Montini 38-7
5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence 31-24
4A St. Laurence lost to 3A Montini 24-17
4A Wheaton Academy lost to 1A Hope Academy 30-29

Given how closely East St. Louis played Mt. Carmel, I will eliminate the 6A to 7A jump from consideration. Given that 5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence, 5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini, and we saw Rochester successfully make the jump to 5A in 2019, I will eliminate the 4A to 5A jump from consideration. Therefore, in my humble opinion, I will say the largest jump in team ability is from 2A to 3A. I think both Byron and Montini would have handled Wilmington fairly easily this past season (by 14 or more points). In fact, Wilmington has struggled a bit in the past when they have had to play in the 3A bracket.

I'm impressed with the research/effort you put into these "assignments"!

 

[doctor_d]

It may depend on whether you are talking about all high schools in a given class (approximately 64 teams), or the entire playoff field in a given class (32 teams), or the top teams in a given class (semifinalists = 4 teams). You mention "from watching the state title games", so I suppose you are talking about the top teams. For what it is worth, here is the average CalPreps power rating for the four semifinalists in each class for 2023.

8A = 50.1
7A = 45.6 (4.5 points behind 8A)
6A = 35.0 (10.6 points behind 7A)
5A = 37.3 (2.3 points ahead of 6A)
4A = 27.3 (10.0 points behind 5A)
3A = 24.4 (2.9 points behind 4A)
2A = 16.2 (8.2 points behind 3A)
1A = 23.5 (7.3 points ahead of 2A)

That would seem to narrow things to three possibilities: The jump from 6A to 7A, the jump from 4A to 5A, or the jump from 2A to 3A.

Here is a list of the 13 regular season games played this past year between semifinal teams from different classes.

8A Loyola defeated 7A Mt. Carmel 23-21
8A Lincoln-Way East defeated 7A Batavia 14-13
8A York defeated 7A Downers Grove North 32-21
8A York defeated 5A Nazareth 42-13
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 6A East St. Louis 36-33
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 5A Providence 43-9
7A Downers Grove North defeated 5A St. Francis 27-22
5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini 24-23
5A St. Francis defeated 4A St. Laurence 42-28
5A Providence defeated 3A Montini 38-7
5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence 31-24
4A St. Laurence lost to 3A Montini 24-17
4A Wheaton Academy lost to 1A Hope Academy 30-29

Given how closely East St. Louis played Mt. Carmel, I will eliminate the 6A to 7A jump from consideration. Given that 5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence, 5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini, and we saw Rochester successfully make the jump to 5A in 2019, I will eliminate the 4A to 5A jump from consideration. Therefore, in my humble opinion, I will say the largest jump in team ability is from 2A to 3A. I think both Byron and Montini would have handled Wilmington fairly easily this past season (by 14 or more points). In fact, Wilmington has struggled a bit in the past when they have had to play in the 3A bracket.

I can agree with this general assessment. Since their enrollment drop and subsequent move into 2A, Wilmington has had a “relatively” easy time, compared to the 3A days, despite having more talented teams in the past. In 2A, they have been able to basically impose their will, and went virtually unchallenged in 2021. This past year was similar with the exception of the Seneca game, which they were beyond fortunate to win, but the only team they faced that really pushed them out of their comfort zone.

 

[godfthr53]

It may depend on whether you are talking about all high schools in a given class (approximately 64 teams), or the entire playoff field in a given class (32 teams), or the top teams in a given class (semifinalists = 4 teams). You mention "from watching the state title games", so I suppose you are talking about the top teams. For what it is worth, here is the average CalPreps power rating for the four semifinalists in each class for 2023.

8A = 50.1
7A = 45.6 (4.5 points behind 8A)
6A = 35.0 (10.6 points behind 7A)
5A = 37.3 (2.3 points ahead of 6A)
4A = 27.3 (10.0 points behind 5A)
3A = 24.4 (2.9 points behind 4A)
2A = 16.2 (8.2 points behind 3A)
1A = 23.5 (7.3 points ahead of 2A)

That would seem to narrow things to three possibilities: The jump from 6A to 7A, the jump from 4A to 5A, or the jump from 2A to 3A.

Here is a list of the 13 regular season games played this past year between semifinal teams from different classes.

8A Loyola defeated 7A Mt. Carmel 23-21
8A Lincoln-Way East defeated 7A Batavia 14-13
8A York defeated 7A Downers Grove North 32-21
8A York defeated 5A Nazareth 42-13
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 6A East St. Louis 36-33
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 5A Providence 43-9
7A Downers Grove North defeated 5A St. Francis 27-22
5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini 24-23
5A St. Francis defeated 4A St. Laurence 42-28
5A Providence defeated 3A Montini 38-7
5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence 31-24
4A St. Laurence lost to 3A Montini 24-17
4A Wheaton Academy lost to 1A Hope Academy 30-29

Given how closely East St. Louis played Mt. Carmel, I will eliminate the 6A to 7A jump from consideration. Given that 5A Providence lost to 4A St. Laurence, 5A Nazareth lost to 3A Montini, and we saw Rochester successfully make the jump to 5A in 2019, I will eliminate the 4A to 5A jump from consideration. Therefore, in my humble opinion, I will say the largest jump in team ability is from 2A to 3A. I think both Byron and Montini would have handled Wilmington fairly easily this past season (by 14 or more points). In fact, Wilmington has struggled a bit in the past when they have had to play in the 3A bracket.

Not sure how much you can take into the head to head matchups because some of those privates are multiplied and some aren't.

 

[MsDavis10]

5A > 6A this past year

 

[johnndoe]

Between the LA & LWE juggernauts and the rest of the 8A playoff qualifiers.

 

[LHSTigers94]

5A > 6A this past year

Didn't Kankakee beat Naz?

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Didn't Kankakee beat Naz?

Naz was a way different team at end of year..

 

[Wassup13]

3A to 4A is a big leap.

I think Byron can beat many larger teams

 

[Wassup13]

I dont think one class is a big jump.

I will say playing up 3 or more classes is a big jump like Montini scheduling non-con big dogs during their hayday.