the King MJ/ Michigan inspired playoff re-do for 7A

[King MJ]

Giving this its own thread to reduce clutter. But some folks asked me to redo the 7A playoffs based on the current Michigan system.

To be clear, I don't think this system is perfect, however, I do think it is greatly improved vs. the current one.

First off, a few caveats

- Used the Michigan system to the best of my ability (https://www.mhsaa.com/portals/0/documents/FB/Adjusted SOS Table.pdf)
- Did my own research for out of state enrollments
- used multipliers to treat catholic schools based on football enrollment
- Covid forfeits wins did some quirky things
- Assumed all existing class enrollment distinctions didn't change


First off, the big changes
- SCN and DGN got in as 4-5 teams driven by very strong schedules
- Hampshire and Eisenhower dropped out
- Overall DuKane and West Suburban on the average did much better
- Normal drops from 2 to 12
- Moline goes from 5 to 22
- Rita goes from 10 to 4
-

I did this somewhat quickly. Please excuse any spelling or typos. If there are obvious errors, I will update



the new bracket
1/32- TF South at Batavia
16/17- Yorkville at Jacobs
8/25 Larkin at Prospect
9/24 Thornwood at Brother Rice

4/29 Pekin at St. Rita
13/20 Shepard at Wheaton South
5/28 Willowbrook at Hoffman Estate
12/21 Geneva at Normal

2/31 Lake Zurich at Wheaton North
15/18 LW West at Libertyville
7/26 Plainfield East at Plainfield central
10/23 Whitney Young at Hononegah

3/30 Collinsville at BG
14/19 DGN at Rolling Meadows
6/27 SCN at Hersey
11/22 Moline at Mt. Carmel

 

[Alexander32]

Giving this its own thread to reduce clutter. But some folks asked me to redo the 7A playoffs based on the current Michigan system.

To be clear, I don't think this system is perfect, however, I do think it is greatly improved vs. the current one.

First off, a few caveats

- Used the Michigan system to the best of my ability (https://www.mhsaa.com/portals/0/documents/FB/Adjusted SOS Table.pdf)
- Did my own research for out of state enrollments
- used multipliers to treat catholic schools based on football enrollment
- Covid forfeits wins did some quirky things
- Assumed all existing class enrollment distinctions didn't change


First off, the big changes
- SCN and DGN got in as 4-5 teams driven by very strong schedules
- Hampshire and Eisenhower dropped out
- Overall DuKane and West Suburban on the average did much better
- Normal drops from 2 to 12
- Moline goes from 5 to 22
- Rita goes from 10 to 4
-

I did this somewhat quickly. Please excuse any spelling or typos. If there are obvious errors, I will update



the new bracket
1/32- TF South at Batavia
16/17- Yorkville at Jacobs
8/25 Larkin at Prospect
9/24 Thornwood at Brother Rice

4/29 Pekin at St. Rita
13/20 Shepard at Wheaton South
5/28 Willowbrook at Hoffman Estate
12/21 Geneva at Normal

2/31 Lake Zurich at Wheaton North
15/18 LW West at Libertyville
7/26 Plainfield East at Plainfield central
10/23 Whitney Young at Hononegah

3/30 Collinsville at BG
14/19 DGN at Rolling Meadows
6/27 SCN at Hersey
11/22 Moline at Mt. Carmel

Thanks for the time and effort. It seems people may be worn out from the other thread.

 

[ramblinman]

Only thing I don't like is your use of the multiplier for private schools.

I think a system that is competitively based should appropriately classify extraordinarily successful schools whether they are private or public.

 

[King MJ]

Only thing I don't like is your use of the multiplier for private schools.

I think a system that is competitively based should appropriately classify extraordinarily successful schools whether they are private or public.

I agree but tried to model enrollment similar to how its currently done for more of an apples to apples comparison.

Pretty much only 2 teams in the playoffs changed, but lots of seeding changes.

I think most of us would agree that SCN and DGN are better teams than Hampshire and Ike

 

[ramblinman]

The other thing I was wondering if it makes sense to qualify your outcomes since you did 7A by itself. In other words, could there be current 6A teams that could move up into 7A and an equal number moving down given the formula?

 

[King MJ]

The other thing I was wondering if it makes sense to qualify your outcomes since you did 7A by itself. In other words, could there be current 6A teams that could move up into 7A and an equal number moving down given the formula?

Thats a fair point. However, you were have to do the entire state to understand it. I didn't have the time to undertake that exercise.

However, once you dig into the numbers I can't imagine more than a couple teams moving around.

 

[stonedlizard]

Thats a fair point. However, you were have to do the entire state to understand it. I didn't have the time to undertake that exercise.

However, once you dig into the numbers I can't imagine more than a couple teams moving around.

Therein lies the rub. Appreciate the time it took to pull this together. While looking at the entire state would be great, you'll no doubt find folks that can't grasp the concept without seeing the entire state, the previous five years, the next five years, etc etc on paper.

What would be interesting is taking a look at the outcomes of the Michigan approach. Do you see more championship parity before vs after they implemented this system.

 

[King MJ]

Therein lies the rub. Appreciate the time it took to pull this together. While looking at the entire state would be great, you'll no doubt find folks that can't grasp the concept without seeing the entire state, the previous five years, the next five years, etc etc on paper.

What would be interesting is taking a look at the outcomes of the Michigan approach. Do you see more championship parity before vs after they implemented this system.

Michigan has a very top loaded talent base so no real change on who won or made semis. However, the bottom half of the draw improved with fewer early round mismatches.

 

[stonedlizard]

@King MJ - do you happen to know how the "Equal Divisions" are set prior to the season?

 

[King MJ]

@King MJ - do you happen to know how the "Equal Divisions" are set prior to the season?

adjusted enrollment is divided in 8 at the beginning of every two years.

 

[atrain97]

I agree but tried to model enrollment similar to how its currently done for more of an apples to apples comparison.

Pretty much only 2 teams in the playoffs changed, but lots of seeding changes.

I think most of us would agree that SCN and DGN are better teams than Hampshire and Ike

I don't think that people that have seen Hampshire would agree with that necessarily. They did beat PR. I am sorry, but while I agree with some of the points, having teams with losing records over teams with winning records just smells wrong.