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Soucie: Week 9 Playoff Projections

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EdgyTim

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May 29, 2001
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And away we go…... We enter Week 9 with 303 teams still eligible for playoff spots.


Step 1: 34 teams are eliminated because of projected Week 9 losses: Auburn, Blue Island (Eisenhower), Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown), Champaign (St. Thomas More), Chicago (Hubbard), Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership), Danville, Deerfield, Downers Grove (South), Dupo, Elgin (Larkin), Fithian (Oakwood), Freeport (Aquin), Geneseo, Harvey (Thornton), Jerseyville (Jersey), Joliet (Catholic), Kankakee, Lake Forest, LeRoy, Marshall, Norridge (Ridgewood), Oakland (Tri-County), Peoria, Peru (St. Bede), Rochelle, Schaumburg, Sciota (West Prairie), Seneca, Summit (Argo), Villa Grove, Wheaton (North), Winchester (West Central) and Winnebago.


Step 2: This gets us down to 269 teams, meaning 13 more need to be eliminated by playoff points. The current break point seems to be 36/37. 36’s all out and all but one 37’s in. Second stage tiebreaker was required to remomove Rushville. Those 13 teams are: Westmont, Cuba, Chicago (Marine), Melrose Park (Walther Lutheran), Nokomis, Cambridge (Ridgewood), Peotone, Dwight, Palos Heights (Chicago Christian), Tremont, Casey-Westfield, Oneida (ROWVA),and .Rushville


If any team from Step 1 earns a fifth victory and has more than 37 points, a 37-point team will be removed from the field to make room for them. In addition, if any of the teams currently in the 256-team field fails to reach an expected five win total teams will be pulled from the 36-point group which currently contains Casey-Westfield and Oneida (ROWVA) and then down the line after those teams if needed.


Last team in: Clinton

First team out: Rushville


A note on seeding: There are several situations where two or three teams are tied with the same records, the same playoff points and the same second-stage tiebreaker (number of wins of defeated opponents). There is no official tiebreaker at that point, it is a random computer generated selection (I flip a coin.)


Class 8A

Let’s talk about the break line. Dundee-Crown (vs. Huntley) and Downers Grove South (vs. Willowbrook) are the only games where a win by either of those two teams could push the line up.


And that’s only if every one of these teams: Fremd, St. Charles East, Zion-Benton and Taft all win.

If any of those four teams lose and neither of the teams from the first list win, teams will begin moving in from above the current line, starting with Glenbard East and then Simeon is next.


There is an amazing amount of stability in 8A this season, which makes it pretty easy to indicate exactly where the break will be. This is the last time this is the case.


New teams in field: Palatine Fremd (Another crazy week in the Mid-Suburban, par for the course)

Teams removed from the field: Downers Grove South (Lost the North vs. South game, now needs to beat undefeated Willowbrook to get in).


Smallest school: Brother Rice


(32) Zion-Benton at (1) Lincoln-Way East

(17) Oak Park-River Forest at (16) Plainfield South

(25) Edwardsville at (8) Aurora West

(24) Neuqua Valley at (9) Gurnee Warren

(29) Taft at (4) Marist

(20) Stevenson at (13) Bolingbrook

(28) Huntley at (5) Homewood-Flossmoor

(21) Loyola at (12) Evanston

(31) St. Charles East at (2) Brother Rice

(18) Glenbard West at (15) Bartlett

(26) South Elgin at (7) Oswego East

(23) Waubonsie Valley at (10) Hinsdale Central

(30) Fremd at (3) Oswego

(19) New Trier at (14) Conant

(27) Minooka at (6) Maine South

(22) Barrington at (11) Naperville Central


Class 7A

New teams in the field: Lincoln Park (picked off Raby to get back in the conversation)

Teams out of the field: Blue Island (Eisenhower) (Upset loss knocks them out), Granite City (now in 6A).


Smallest school: DeKalb

Largest school: Glenbard East


(32) Mount Prospect at (1) Simeon

(17) Machesney Park Harlem at (16) Lincoln-Way Central

(25) Andrew at (8) Hersey

(24) Lake Zurich at (9) Nazareth

(29) Lincoln Park at (4) Glenbard East

(20) Belleville West at (13) Moline

(28) Buffalo Grove at (5) Willowbrook

(21) Glenbrook North at (12) Normal Community

(31) Downers Grove North at (2) Batavia

(18) Lincoln-Way West at (15) St. Charles North

(26) Hoffman Estates at (7) Mount Carmel

(23) Benet at (10) DeKalb

(30) Rockford East at (3) Rockton Hononegah

(19) T.F. South at (14) East St. Louis

(27) Alton at (6) Rolling Meadows

(22) Wheaton Warrenville South at (11) Maine West


Class 6A

New teams in field: Granite City (was in 7A)

Teams out of the field: Peoria (now need to upset Normal Community to get in).


Smallest school: Kaneland

Largest school: Granite City


North Bracket

(16) Grayslake North at (1) Antioch

(9) Von Steuben at (8) Lakes

(13) Crystal Lake South at (4) Niles Notre Dame

(12) St. Ignatius at (5) Kaneland

(15) Fenton at (2) Kenwood

(10) Belvidere North at (7) Prairie Ridge

(14) Wauconda at (3) Cary-Grove

(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Phillips

South Bracket

(16) Granite City at (1) Oak Lawn Richards

(9) Crete-Monee at (8) Quincy

(13) Providence at (4) Normal West

(12) Lemont at (5) Shepard

(15) Reavis at (2) Chatham Glenwood

(10) Springfield at (7) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin

(14) Rock Island at (3) Washington
(11) Yorkville at (6) Bloomington


Class 5A

No field changes


Smallest school: Hyde Park

Largest school: Dunlap


North Bracket

(16) Phoenix Military at (1) Sterling

(9) Sycamore at (8) Elmwood Park

(13) Amundsen at (4) Montini

(12) De La Salle at (5) Wheaton St. Francis

(15) Glenbard South at (2) Rockford Boylan
(10) St. Patrick at (7) Hyde Park

(14) Woodstock North at (3) Payton

(11) Solorio at (6) Back of the Yards

South Bracket

(16) Rich Central at (1) Hillcrest

(9) Vocational at (8) Decatur MacArthur

(13) Dunlap at (4) Cahokia

(12) Champaign Central at (5) Marion

(15) Mattoon at (2) Highland

(10) Peoria Notre Dame at (7) Carbondale

(14) Rich East at (3) Metamora

(11) Mascoutah at (6) Morton


Class 4A

Schools added to the field: Chicago Brooks (by the most precarious margin imaginable)

Schools leaving the field: Paris (now in 3A)


Smallest school: Genoa-Kingston

Largest school: Chicago Brooks


North Bracket

(16) Brooks at (1) IC Catholic

(9) Johnsburg at (8) Stillman Valley

(13) Wheaton Academy at (4) Marengo

(12) Elgin St. Edward at (5) Genoa-Kingston

(15) Evergreen Park at (2) Richmond-Burton

(10) Clemente at (7) Dixon

(14) Raby at (3) Urban Prep-Bronzeville

(11) Sullivan at (6) Agricultural Science

South Bracket

(16) Plano at (1) Taylorville

(9) Herrin at (8) Effingham

(13) Salem at (4) Pontiac

(12) Olney East Richland at (5) Freeburg

(15) Illinois Valley Central at (2) Coal City

(10) Breese Central at (7) Rochester

(14) Mount Zion at (3) Columbia

(11) Murphysboro at (6) Breese Mater Dei



Class 3A

New teams in the field: Fairfield (was in 2A)

Teams out of the field: Pinckneyville (loss to Carterville costs them a bid)


Smallest school: Vandalia

Largest school: Clinton and Paris (both have the same enrollment)


North Bracket

(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron

(9) Elmwood at (8) Monmouth-Roseville

(13) Clark at (4) Lisle

(12) Wilmington at (5) Eureka

(15) Urban Prep-Englewood at (2) Bishop McNamara

(10) Princeton at (7) Prairie Central

(14) Herscher at (3) Dunbar

(11) Spring Valley Hall at (6) Poplar Grove North Boone

South Bracket

(16) Clinton at (1) Carlinville

(9) DuQuoin at (8) Paxton

(13) Newton at (4) Farmington

(12) Greenville at (5) Beardstown

(15) St. Joseph-Ogden at (2) Monticello

(10) West Frankfort at (7) Williamsville

(14) Wood River East Alton at (3) Paris

(11) Anna-Jonesboro at (6) Vandalia


Class 2A


New teams in field: Tuscola (was in 1A), Decatur Lutheran (still very precarious on points)

Teams removed from field: Rushville (currently first team out on points), Marshall (lost to Casey-Westfield costly).


Smallest school: Tuscola

Largest school: Fairfield


North Bracket

(16) Watseka at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley

(9) Tri-Valley at (8) Knoxville

(13) Hamilton West at (4) Sterling Newman

(12) Rockford Christian at (5) Collins

(15) Harlan at (2) Lanark Eastland

(10) Mercer County at (7) Hope Academy

(14) Fieldcrest at (3) Orion

(11) Rockridge at (6) Clifton Central

South Bracket

(16) Decatur Lutheran at (1) Illini West

(9) Chester at (8) Eldorado

(13) Jacksonville Routt at (4) Maroa-Forsyth

(12) Pleasant Plains at (5) Tuscola

(15) Alton Marquette at (2) Decatur St. Teresa

(10) Athens at (7) Bismarck-Henning

(14) Staunton at (3) Fairfield

(11) Pana at (6) Nashville


Class 1A

New teams in field: Lewistown (flipped my thought process on Week 9 game)

Teams removed from field: Tuscola (now in 2A)


Largest school: Warrensburg-Latham


North Bracket

(16) Orangeville at (1) Princeville

(9) Kewanee Wethersfield at (8) Stockton

(13) Lewistown at (4) Lena-Winslow

(12) Kirkland Hiawatha at (5) Fisher

(15) Polo at (2) Ottawa Marquette

(10) Aurora Christian at (7) Forreston

(14) Fulton at (3) Milledgevile

(11) Dakota at (6) Orr

South Bracket

(16) Edwards County at (1) Argenta-Oreana

(9) Salt Fork at (8) Carrollton

(13) Moweaqua Central A&M at (4) Red Hill

(12) Cerro Gordo at (5) Madison

(15) Greenfield at (2) Camp Point Central

(10) Sesser-Valier at (7) Warrensburg-Latham

(14) Georgetown-Ridge Farm at (3) Triopia

(11) Cumberland at (6) Arcola
 
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