Soucie breaks down who's moving where next year success/multiplier

[Comiskey Park]

Since it looks like the BR bashing is starting before we really know anything on all fronts (IHSA, what BR will decide) just a quick look at the last three BR seasons:

BR Varsity, '22 Quarterfinals lost to MC state champs, '23 lost to Batavia semi finalists, '24 round 1 lost to Fenwick by 5.
Lost three games all by 7 to solid teams in Marist, St. Rita and Loyola, beating MC, while losing to Fenwick in the playoffs.

BR Sophs-23-4 the last three seasons, CCL Blue co-champs in 23.

BR Fresh-26-1 the last three seasons, CCL Blue champs all three.

To say this school / program does not care is wrong. As we all know this is a brutally tough conference, all working hard to attract the same students to attend. Also, all of these upper division schools, your first two games are hard to find anyone who wants to play you (Marist plays Mo Po, SR plays MC, MC played the Hun, BR plays Marist).

BR is closer than some think, but let's all see what happens.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all and good luck to ALL CCL/ESCC teams this weekend. Bring it home!

 

[colin2229]

Wonder what Althoff will look like next year when all those dudes graduate and they end up in 3a.

 

[USD24]

Wonder what Antioch is thinking right about now. We moved up to 6a and for the 2025 season 6A north is going to be LOADED with private schools.

Kinda interesting that Antioch made all the noise about private schools. The AD is a JCA guy who played and coached at Joliet Catholic.

 

[Dave Brody]

SF has some work to do.

SF is definitely not a fan of the projected 5A teams for 2025. Ouch.

 

[MC63]

JCA? Anyone who really believes JCA is a 5A school and belongs in the 5A playoffs should probably get their head checked. The sad part is the majority of that fan base seems to think it's not a problem to sit in the lower classes and pick off public schools (in multiple sports). Low hanging fruit for them.

I've been saying this for years - the gguys from these schools go ballistic, Exceppt for the tiny schools, no CCL team should be below 6A.

 

[Irish LB]

Someone mentioned JCA baseball in 2A & it’s the same exact thing.

Actually it’s not the same thing, not even close. JCA was down in 2a because they were unmultiplied. Naz baseball has never been unmultiplied and actually is being success factored for the second time.

 

[Irish LB]

I've been saying this for years - the gguys from these schools go ballistic, Exceppt for the tiny schools, no CCL team should be below 6A.

Easy to say when your team is above that threshold isn’t it?

 

[DeanOfSelection]

Wonder what Antioch is thinking right about now. We moved up to 6a and for the 2025 season 6A north is going to be LOADED with private schools.

Law of unintended consequences

 

[MC63]

Easy to say when your team is above that threshold isn’t it?

That threshold should be your goal. Nothing easy about it

 

[Irish LB]

That threshold should be your goal. Nothing easy about it

You suggest other teams petition up, why hasn’t Mt Carmel petitioned up?

 

[Irish LB]

That threshold should be your goal. Nothing easy about it

Naz got success factored up and went to 2 titles in 6a, winning once. Then they got success factored up and went to 2 titles in 7a, winning once. Spare me the bs.

 

[mc140]

Kinda interesting that Antioch made all the noise about private schools. The AD is a JCA guy who played and coached at Joliet Catholic.

Well he should be the one making noise as he knows the difference between the situations.

 

[chakazulu89]

Let's recall that St. Rita was in 5A and got curb stomped by Rochester several years back.

Were BR to fall to 5A, they would not even be the prohibitive favorite. SF and a PC who has some solid lower levels would likely be more favored to win 5A. Programs like Prairie Ridge and Sycamore also very capable of playing with a program like Rice.

I can definitely see them petitioning up to 7A especially since that class seems weaker than any of the other top 4 classes, but it really doesn't seem necessary until they prove that they are head and shoudlers beyond the rest of 5A.

LOL. BR too had solid lower levels with one being undefeated in the Blue. Not a Rice fan, but they would beat SF and PC easily....

 

[JCHillmen]

LOL. BR too had solid lower levels with one being undefeated in the Blue. Not a Rice fan, but they would beat SF and PC easily....

Maybe they win, but I doubt it would be easy against SF as they are and PC as they will be the next few years.

I like Rice. No reason not to. But to think they would dispatch of the best of 5A so easily really seems strange to me.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Wonder what Antioch is thinking right about now. We moved up to 6a and for the 2025 season 6A north is going to be LOADED with private schools.

They can just not opt up right (although they'll likely be right on the edge either way)

 

[Alexander32]

Kinda interesting that Antioch made all the noise about private schools. The AD is a JCA guy who played and coached at Joliet Catholic.

Perhaps that is why he knows the truth about the lack of competitive balance between private schools and public schools, and has the courage to then speak the truth.

About once a year a CCL/ESCC power loses to a public school in the playoffs, and then the privates use that game as an example for the next ten years that things are balanced. [Rochester over St. Rita, Mascoutah over Joliet Catholic, Batavia over Brother Rice, and this year Downers Grove North over Fenwick.] For every game like that, the remainder of their losses in the playoffs, by a factor of 4 or 5 times, are losses to their fellow CCL/ESCC teams. This year in the playoffs Marist lost to Loyola, Brother Rice lost to Fenwick, St. Rita lost to Mt. Carmel, St. Francis lost to Nazareth, St. Laurence lost to DePaul, and either Nazareth or Joliet Catholic will lose in the 5A championship game. With results like that, the CCL/ESCC might as well have its own playoff.

The whys and wherefores can be debated, the past results cannot be debated. They are facts.

 

[gobears25]

I've been saying this for years - the gguys from these schools go ballistic, Exceppt for the tiny schools, no CCL team should be below 6A.

Agreed, CCL blue and green to 8A, orange and white to 7A, and purple and red to 6a. remove all multipliers and success factors. Then all of the CCL teams that play in a classification below where they belong to chase easy trophies like that Chicago Mt Carmel school will be correctly classified.

 

[ignazio]

DePaul going from 4A to 8A.

Enjoy your weekend, Rams!

 

[ramblinman]

About once a year a CCL/ESCC power loses to a public school in the playoffs, and then the privates use that game as an example for the next ten years that things are balanced. [Rochester over St. Rita, Mascoutah over Joliet Catholic, Batavia over Brother Rice, and this year Downers Grove North over Fenwick.]

Selected (not all) playoff losses by CCL/ESCC schools against public schools

2016: New Trier over Marist, Maine South over Loyola, Plainfield North over Fenwick, Rockford Auburn over St. Rita, Prairie Ridge over Montini, Vernon Hills over Nazareth

2017: LWE over Loyola, Minooka over Notre Dame, Lake Zurich over St. Rita, Lake Zurich over Mt Carmel, Prairie Ridge over Nazareth, DeKalb over Montini,

2018: St Charles North over Mt Carmel, Washington over Providence, Cary Grove over Notre Dame,

2019: Warren over Brother Rice, LWE over Notre Dame, Glenwood over Providence, Hillcrest over Fenwick, Rochester over St Rita, Mascoutah over Joliet Catholic

2020 COVID

2021: Lockport over Loyola, Maine South over Marist, Wheaton North over Brother Rice, Wheaton North over St. Rita, Crete Monee over St. Ignatius, Genoa Kingston over St. Francis

2022: Prairie Ridge over St. Ignatius

2023: Batavia over Brother Rice, Rochester over St. Laurence

2024 (so far): Downers Grove North over Fenwick, Rochelle over Benet

So much for "about once a year," eh?

For every game like that, the remainder of their losses in the playoffs, by a factor of 4 or 5 times, are losses to their fellow CCL/ESCC teams.

Every game? Remainder of their losses? Look above at the actual results. Read 'em and weep. Hyperbole will bite you in the butt every time.

The whys and wherefores can be debated, the past results cannot be debated. They are facts.

And those facts (see above) failed you. Again.

 

[rfb321]

I believe IC will also move into 2A, but I didn’t see them listed.

In 2021, Rita, MC and IC had no multipliers. All three petitioned up any way. Byron and Wheaton North took the trophies

 

[mc140]

Selected (not all) playoff losses by CCL/ESCC schools against public schools

2016: New Trier over Marist, Maine South over Loyola, Plainfield North over Fenwick, Rockford Auburn over St. Rita, Prairie Ridge over Montini, Vernon Hills over Nazareth

2017: LWE over Loyola, Minooka over Notre Dame, Lake Zurich over St. Rita, Lake Zurich over Mt Carmel, Prairie Ridge over Nazareth, DeKalb over Montini,

2018: St Charles North over Mt Carmel, Washington over Providence, Cary Grove over Notre Dame,

2019: Warren over Brother Rice, LWE over Notre Dame, Glenwood over Providence, Hillcrest over Fenwick, Rochester over St Rita, Mascoutah over Joliet Catholic

2020 COVID

2021: Lockport over Loyola, Maine South over Marist, Wheaton North over Brother Rice, Wheaton North over St. Rita, Crete Monee over St. Ignatius, Genoa Kingston over St. Francis

2022: Prairie Ridge over St. Ignatius

2023: Batavia over Brother Rice, Rochester over St. Laurence

2024 (so far): Downers Grove North over Fenwick, Rochelle over Benet

So much for "about once a year," eh?



Every game? Remainder of their losses? Look above at the actual results. Read 'em and weep. Hyperbole will bite you in the butt every time.



And those facts (see above) failed you. Again.

Now do private wins over publics in same time. It might be a little longer.

 

[IHSAfan207]

6A with the addition of JC , Naz and Marist should be thought along with ESL, CG and Geneva just to name a few, Just might be better than 8 A

Don't forget about Antioch and Glenbard South petitioning up to 6A, Marist ain't going to want none of that smoke and will stay 7A.

 

[StormFire]

2021: Sycamore over St Patrick

Just wanted to get my Shamrocks credit for making the quarterfinals. It helped soothe the pain of losing to Mather in 1996…

 

[ramblinman]

Now do private wins over publics in same time. It might be a little longer

"Might be?"

We both know it's longer, but that isn't the point (such as it is) that Alexander32 was making, nor was it mine in responding to him. He claimed that,

About once a year a CCL/ESCC power loses to a public school in the playoffs, and then the privates use that game as an example for the next ten years that things are balanced.

As opposed to "about once a year," I provided multiple occurrences of CCL/ESCC power losses to public schools per year. Just calling him out on his hyperbole.

 

[ramblinman]

2021: Sycamore over St Patrick

Just wanted to get my Shamrocks credit for making the quarterfinals. It helped soothe the pain of losing to Mather in 1996…

That was one of the ones I intentionally left out. Didn't want Alexander32 to use that to discount my argument since, no offense, Pat's isn't really among the "CCL/ESCC powers" to which Alexander32 was referring.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Agreed, CCL blue and green to 8A, orange and white to 7A, and purple and red to 6a. remove all multipliers and success factors. Then all of the CCL teams that play in a classification below where they belong to chase easy trophies like that Chicago Mt Carmel school will be correctly classified.

Well the current conglomerate of CCL that includes ESCC and others isn't that old. Nor are the bi-annual classifications of those color divisions.

Remove the multiplier waiver (or make it much more stringent) and implement a modernized football enrollment and I think you could accomplish much the same and not be tied to any specific conference alignment.

 

[Alexander32]

Selected (not all) playoff losses by CCL/ESCC schools against public schools

2016: New Trier over Marist, Maine South over Loyola, Plainfield North over Fenwick, Rockford Auburn over St. Rita, Prairie Ridge over Montini, Vernon Hills over Nazareth

2017: LWE over Loyola, Minooka over Notre Dame, Lake Zurich over St. Rita, Lake Zurich over Mt Carmel, Prairie Ridge over Nazareth, DeKalb over Montini,

2018: St Charles North over Mt Carmel, Washington over Providence, Cary Grove over Notre Dame,

2019: Warren over Brother Rice, LWE over Notre Dame, Glenwood over Providence, Hillcrest over Fenwick, Rochester over St Rita, Mascoutah over Joliet Catholic

2020 COVID

2021: Lockport over Loyola, Maine South over Marist, Wheaton North over Brother Rice, Wheaton North over St. Rita, Crete Monee over St. Ignatius, Genoa Kingston over St. Francis

2022: Prairie Ridge over St. Ignatius

2023: Batavia over Brother Rice, Rochester over St. Laurence

2024 (so far): Downers Grove North over Fenwick, Rochelle over Benet

So much for "about once a year," eh?



Every game? Remainder of their losses? Look above at the actual results. Read 'em and weep. Hyperbole will bite you in the butt every time.



And those facts (see above) failed you. Again.

As a minor clarification, I did write "CCL/ESCC power". You may feel free to differ but I do not consider Notre Dame and Benet to be powers and therefore would remove them from your list.

Nevertheless, you raise a good point. While the private schools generally had somewhat more success than the public schools in the past, that level of success was never so dominant that it overly concerned me. Once the private schools got to the semifinal round things seemed to be reasonably balanced. That has changed for some reason in the last three seasons. Your list shows one public win in 2022, two in 2023, and one so far this year. Again, I do not consider Benet to be a "power". Look what happened to Rochelle the following week.

What happened that caused the dominance to reach an alarming level? Was it the merger of the Chicago Catholic League with the East Suburban Catholic Conference? Was it the restructuring to four-team divisions, rather than using eight-team or six-team divisions? I have to admit, I sort of feel like the CCL/ESCC is gaming the system with its four-team structure. That structure with its selective crossovers seems specifically designed to maximize the number of teams in the playoffs, while harming teams in the red and purple divisions who would be outvoted. I do not know the answer to the question that began this paragraph.

Anyway, speaking just for myself, it has only been in the last few years that I have become alarmed. I look at some other states with their extremely powerful Catholic conferences and see the writing on the wall. A fair number of those states have created separate playoffs for publics and privates. If there is a way to avoid that outcome, it would be good if the IHSA could find it.

If you could convince me that the recent private-school dominance was a temporary phenomenon, I wouldn't be so concerned. I don't suppose there is really any way to know at this point if this is a long-term change, but the numbers over the last three years have been extremely one-sided. I have cited them in other threads so there is no need to repeat them here.

Those are my views for now.

 

[4Afan]

That was one of the ones I intentionally left out. Didn't want Alexander32 to use that to discount my argument since, no offense, Pat's isn't really among the "CCL/ESCC powers" to which Alexander32 was referring.

And Notre Dame and Iggy are? Or did you just throw them in to beef up your weak argument?

 

[rfb321]

In 2021, Rita, MC and IC had no multipliers. All three petitioned up any way. Byron and Wheaton North took the trophies

Can’t recall, did LA also lose the multiplier that year and petition up to 8A eventually loosing to Lockport in finals? This was the first post covid season

 

[doctor_d]

Bring back FBE. Maybe just for private schools.
To me that’s the biggest thing and Loyola QB nailed it with his post game comments about publics not able to play top competition during the regular season. Now he might not have been referring to the middle classes, but the overall sentiment certainly holds true there as well.
I don’t really want separation, but IF (that’s an if) the private schools dominate the state titles this year and going forward, I feel like it could be inevitable.

 

[Snetsrak61]

As a minor clarification, I did write "CCL/ESCC power". You may feel free to differ but I do not consider Notre Dame and Benet to be powers and therefore would remove them from your list.

Nevertheless, you raise a good point. While the private schools generally had somewhat more success than the public schools in the past, that level of success was never so dominant that it overly concerned me. Once the private schools got to the semifinal round things seemed to be reasonably balanced. That has changed for some reason in the last three seasons. Your list shows one public win in 2022, two in 2023, and one so far this year. Again, I do not consider Benet to be a "power". Look what happened to Rochelle the following week.

What happened that caused the dominance to reach an alarming level? Was it the merger of the Chicago Catholic League with the East Suburban Catholic Conference? Was it the restructuring to four-team divisions, rather than using eight-team or six-team divisions? I have to admit, I sort of feel like the CCL/ESCC is gaming the system with its four-team structure. That structure with its selective crossovers seems specifically designed to maximize the number of teams in the playoffs, while harming teams in the red and purple divisions who would be outvoted. I do not know the answer to the question that began this paragraph.

Yes the 4 team division does help with maximizing playoff representation (at the "expense" of getting any auto qualifiers for conference champs.)

I don't think the current Red/Purple setup is any worse than the old status quo though. There's been attrition of schools at that competetion level and the conglomerate with the ESCC is as best positioned to help it as was the old version of the traditional CCL.

Maybe this CCL/ESCC stays together, maybe not. The Chicago Metro Conference lasted 6 years. So they've matched that prior run, but if it disbanded too eventually I wouldn't be surprised, either.

 

[MC63]

You suggest other teams petition up, why hasn’t Mt Carmel petitioned up?

We play a regular season schedule of mostly 7A schools. We're right where we should be (for the moment, anyway.) When we move up to 8A, we'll have playoff opponents with as many as 3.5 times the number of boys as us.

 

[Irish LB]

We play a regular season schedule of mostly 7A schools. We're right where we should be (for the moment, anyway.) When we move up to 8A, we'll have playoff opponents with as many as 3.5 times the number of boys as us.

The levels of hypocrisy are astounding. Worry about your own backyard and not those of others.

 

[4Afan]

The levels of hypocrisy are astounding. Worry about your own backyard and not those of others.

It's funny how he discredits JCAs titles when they have a 3A/4A enrollment and plays in 5A, yet he thinks they should petition up. But MC is right where they belong? Got it.

 

[FanFan_65]

This is why the debate rages on, private schools compete against high level teams in the regular season and then are wallowed to be success factored down. They do this to help them win championships, no publics are allowed to play down when they don't win

Rice in 5A is a joke - They beat Loyola this year
Marist in 6A is joke - They played Loyola closer than LWE
Fenwick in 5A is a joke - Who probably should have beat 7A DGN in the 2nd round

Brother Rice did nit beat Loyola this year.

 

[MC63]

It's funny how he discredits JCAs titles when they have a 3A/4A enrollment and plays in 5A, yet he thinks they should petition up. But MC is right where they belong? Got it.

They play in 5A? KIf so, it's a far more sophisticated 5A than other schools.

 

[MC63]

The levels of hypocrisy are astounding. Worry about your own backyard and not those of others.

Son, don't start what you can't finish. Thank you.

 

[Irish LB]

Son, don't start what you can't finish. Thank you.

Time to hit the nasal spray and relax, surely there’s some Matlock on somewhere.

 

[4Afan]

They play in 5A? KIf so, it's a far more sophisticated 5A than other schools.

What do you mean, "if so"? It's quite literal.