Just wondering if you have the time to do this? It's a great thread.
If not, anyone else have the ability?
If not, anyone else have the ability?
Playoffs Outlook, Catch22?
- Thread starter Wittymoniker1
- Start date
Right now 294 teams have 3 or more wins.
256 make the playoffs.
So as of now, 38 of the 3-win teams are still on the outside looking in. Determining which 52 of the 90 total 3-win teams are in and which 38 are out is the challenge.
The pool of "bubble" teams is much larger than that. Im sure there are some 4-2 teams that could potentially lose out
Yes but u r looking at the 9 week finished product.
All I m saying is that after 6 weeks, there are this many 3-3 teams which makes determining which 256 teams are in as of Oct. 1st and which are out very difficult and actually impossible if the 3-3 teams can’t be separated via tiebreaker and a con flip is the option.
Obviously some 4-2 teams will go bust and finish 4-5 and board fave Nazareth Academy is not accounted for right now as it is 2-4.
That’s why absolutely nothing is certain right now other than a 6-0 team with huge or minuscule enrollment will know they are in 8A or 1a.
And conversely the 0-6 teams know their season is toast.
So I don’t want to steal the thunder from Catch 22 but I took a run at it: here is what I have:
8A
Bloom vs LWE
Stevenson vs Sandburg
Plainfield N vs W Aurora
Taft vs Belle East
DG South vs York
Minooka vs Joliet West
Waubonsie Valley vs Nap Ctrl
Conant vs S Elgin
East Aurora vs Loyola
Lake Park vs Palatine
Hf vs Maine S
Bolingbrook vs Huntley
Stagg vs Barrington
Lyons vs Warren
Lockport vs Niles west
Neuqua Valley vs Oswego
7A
Jacobs vs Mt Carmel
St Charles N vs Kenwood
Young vs Batavia
Addison Trail vs LWW
Wheaton N vs Hononegah
Mundelein vs Glenbard E
W Chicago vs DG North
Collinsville vs Maine W
Reavis vs Normal
Hoffman Est vs St Rita
GBW vs Bourbonnais
Brother Rice vs Hersey
Yorkville vs Edwardsville
Prospect vs Harlem
BG vs LWC
Andrew vs Lincoln Park
6A North
Rockford Auburn vs Cary
Senn vs CLC
Lake View vs Lake Foreat
Amundsen vs Hubbard
Highland Park vs Bellvidere N
Deerfield Vs Mather
Libertyville vs LZ
Grant vs Fenwick
6A South
Wheaton S vs Kankakee
ESL vs Richards
Eisenhower vs Glenwood
Argo vs Geneva
Willowbrook vs Quincy
Crete Monee vs Normal W
Bremen vs Bloomington
Riverside Brookfield vs Washington
5A North
La Salle Peru vs Sycamore
Noble vs Lindblom
Wauconda vs Carmel
Lemont vs Glenbard S
Sterling vs PR
Kaneland vs Antioch
Benet vs Morgan Park
Simeon vs Payton
5A South
Decatur Mac vs Morton
Peoria vs St Francis
Metamora vs Providence
Troy Triad vs Hillcrest
Champaign Centennial vs Dunlap
JCA vs SHG
Carbondale vs TF North
Marion vs Mahomet
Only one I struggled with N/S was 5A. Could see either JCA or St Francis move North and Lemont or Simeon move south.
8A
Bloom vs LWE
Stevenson vs Sandburg
Plainfield N vs W Aurora
Taft vs Belle East
DG South vs York
Minooka vs Joliet West
Waubonsie Valley vs Nap Ctrl
Conant vs S Elgin
East Aurora vs Loyola
Lake Park vs Palatine
Hf vs Maine S
Bolingbrook vs Huntley
Stagg vs Barrington
Lyons vs Warren
Lockport vs Niles west
Neuqua Valley vs Oswego
7A
Jacobs vs Mt Carmel
St Charles N vs Kenwood
Young vs Batavia
Addison Trail vs LWW
Wheaton N vs Hononegah
Mundelein vs Glenbard E
W Chicago vs DG North
Collinsville vs Maine W
Reavis vs Normal
Hoffman Est vs St Rita
GBW vs Bourbonnais
Brother Rice vs Hersey
Yorkville vs Edwardsville
Prospect vs Harlem
BG vs LWC
Andrew vs Lincoln Park
6A North
Rockford Auburn vs Cary
Senn vs CLC
Lake View vs Lake Foreat
Amundsen vs Hubbard
Highland Park vs Bellvidere N
Deerfield Vs Mather
Libertyville vs LZ
Grant vs Fenwick
6A South
Wheaton S vs Kankakee
ESL vs Richards
Eisenhower vs Glenwood
Argo vs Geneva
Willowbrook vs Quincy
Crete Monee vs Normal W
Bremen vs Bloomington
Riverside Brookfield vs Washington
5A North
La Salle Peru vs Sycamore
Noble vs Lindblom
Wauconda vs Carmel
Lemont vs Glenbard S
Sterling vs PR
Kaneland vs Antioch
Benet vs Morgan Park
Simeon vs Payton
5A South
Decatur Mac vs Morton
Peoria vs St Francis
Metamora vs Providence
Troy Triad vs Hillcrest
Champaign Centennial vs Dunlap
JCA vs SHG
Carbondale vs TF North
Marion vs Mahomet
Only one I struggled with N/S was 5A. Could see either JCA or St Francis move North and Lemont or Simeon move south.
I have alerted Catch-22 that the masses at Edgys are looking for him...stay tuned
Ihsa has needed stuff on website. 7a and 8A are easy with 1 vs 32 2 vs 32 etc in first round.
Other 6 classs May be bit tricky with north/south interpretations ,
Point is IHSA playoff outlook gives you the 32 qualifiers in each class and which clsss they are in if season ended now.
Which of course it doesn’t so who plays who if season ends now has zero to do with who plays who on Halloween weekend.
By if you r a 7a or 8A fan you can look online and see who your team would play if he the rest of the regular season gets cancelled.
Other 6 classs May be bit tricky with north/south interpretations ,
Point is IHSA playoff outlook gives you the 32 qualifiers in each class and which clsss they are in if season ended now.
Which of course it doesn’t so who plays who if season ends now has zero to do with who plays who on Halloween weekend.
By if you r a 7a or 8A fan you can look online and see who your team would play if he the rest of the regular season gets cancelled.
Newt, much appreciated. Good stuff!! I know it's not going to end up this way, but I love the speculation and potential matchups.
Some fun to add in mix looking at only 3-3 teams vs remaining schedule…
Small School bubbles likely OUT that IHSA has in:
-Nokomis
-Argenta
-Marian Woodstock
-Bureau Valley
-Chester/Dupo loser
-Hillboro (3a)
-Litchfield (3a)
-Stillman Valley (3a)
-Effingham (4a)
-Manteno (4a)
Small School bubble teams likely IN that IHSA playoff outlook has out:
-Illini West
-Mercer County
-Hamilton County
-Mendon Unity
-Peotone (3a)
-Beardstown (3a)
-maybe CPS Noble/Hansbury (3a)
-Cohokia (4a)
-Macomb (4a)
-Ridgewood (4a)
-Freeburg (4a)
-Taylorville (4a)
-Chicago Ag Science (4a)
Small School bubbles likely OUT that IHSA has in:
-Nokomis
-Argenta
-Marian Woodstock
-Bureau Valley
-Chester/Dupo loser
-Hillboro (3a)
-Litchfield (3a)
-Stillman Valley (3a)
-Effingham (4a)
-Manteno (4a)
Small School bubble teams likely IN that IHSA playoff outlook has out:
-Illini West
-Mercer County
-Hamilton County
-Mendon Unity
-Peotone (3a)
-Beardstown (3a)
-maybe CPS Noble/Hansbury (3a)
-Cohokia (4a)
-Macomb (4a)
-Ridgewood (4a)
-Freeburg (4a)
-Taylorville (4a)
-Chicago Ag Science (4a)
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Large schools likely OUT that Ihsa currently has in:
-Benet
-Simeon
-Lasalle Peru
-Decatur Macarthur
-Libertyville
-Andrew
-Reavis
-Homewood Flossmoor
-Plainfield N or Yorkville
-Bolingbrook
-Conant
-Stagg
-Bloom
Large Schools likely IN that Ihsa has out:
-Mt. Vernon
-Moline
-Naperville North
-Chicago Lane
Difference of -9 teams OUT in large classes by my estimaye.
-Benet
-Simeon
-Lasalle Peru
-Decatur Macarthur
-Libertyville
-Andrew
-Reavis
-Homewood Flossmoor
-Plainfield N or Yorkville
-Bolingbrook
-Conant
-Stagg
-Bloom
Large Schools likely IN that Ihsa has out:
-Mt. Vernon
-Moline
-Naperville North
-Chicago Lane
Difference of -9 teams OUT in large classes by my estimaye.
If u r looking for a 4-5 team to get on as Buffalo grove did last year, right now 2-4 Nazareth academy has 39 opponent wins points and is 2-4. They are the clear top choice.
I m dismissing Herron with 38 opponent wins as they won’t get to 4 wins by my best guess.
I m also dismissing providence and 37 opponent wins as they are 4-2 and should get to 5 wins.
So my number 2 choice for a 4-5 qualifier after Nazareth is Benet Academy with 35 points now and looks in my foggy crystal ball to be headed for 4-5.
I m dismissing Herron with 38 opponent wins as they won’t get to 4 wins by my best guess.
I m also dismissing providence and 37 opponent wins as they are 4-2 and should get to 5 wins.
So my number 2 choice for a 4-5 qualifier after Nazareth is Benet Academy with 35 points now and looks in my foggy crystal ball to be headed for 4-5.
All..... 5A (using this weeks IHSA numbers) - LaSalle (Peru) at 3-3 isn't going to make it. There last two games are with Sycamore and Maple Park.
There are two 2-4 schools that have a decent shot at getting in. Danville's last third of the regular season play Champaign (Central) (2-4), Richwoods (1-5) and Urbana (0-6) Big game for them is this week against the Maroons.
Mascoutah is not out of it yet as well. They should beat Jerseyville and Waterloo and be 4-4. Last game of the year at Carbondale. I like the Indians in that game as well. Ratsy
Here's 5A. I used their latitude for each school, which is what I understand is the defining number. I could be wrong....
| Region | Seed | Rank | School | N/S | Opponents' | Classification |
| N | 1 | 2 | Sycamore (H.S.) | 41.9889 | 27 | 1172.5 |
| N | 2 | 3 | Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge) | 42.2704 | 24 | 1214 |
| N | 3 | 4 | Chicago (Payton) | 41.9017 | 24 | 1204.5 |
| N | 4 | 5 | Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South) | 41.8315 | 24 | 1096.5 |
| N | 5 | 7 | Antioch | 42.4728 | 18 | 1290.5 |
| N | 6 | 9 | Chicago (Morgan Park) | 41.6922 | 32 | 1045 |
| N | 7 | 10 | Mundelein (Carmel) | 42.2714 | 29 | 1074.5 |
| N | 8 | 14 | Chicago (Lindblom) | 41.7821 | 17 | 1143.5 |
| N | 9 | 15 | Chicago (Noble/UIC) | 41.9001 | 16 | 957 |
| N | 10 | 17 | Wheaton (St. Francis) | 41.8575 | 33 | 1130.25 |
| N | 11 | 23 | Wauconda | 42.2677 | 22 | 1385 |
| N | 12 | 26 | Lisle (Benet Academy) | 41.7822 | 35 | 1271.5 |
| N | 13 | 27 | Maple Park (Kaneland) | 41.8817 | 33 | 1326.5 |
| N | 14 | 28 | Lemont (H.S.) | 41.6736 | 32 | 1377 |
| N | 15 | 29 | Chicago (Simeon) | 41.7456 | 31 | 1374.5 |
| N | 16 | 30 | Sterling (H.S.) | 41.8033 | 31 | 978.5 |
| S | 1 | 1 | Morton | 40.6123 | 28 | 1026.5 |
| S | 2 | 6 | Dunlap | 40.8547 | 21 | 1340.5 |
| S | 3 | 8 | Mahomet (Seymour) | 40.2022 | 35 | 996 |
| S | 4 | 11 | Country Club Hills (Hillcrest) | 41.5734 | 29 | 1175 |
| S | 5 | 12 | Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin) | 39.8012 | 29 | 884.40(*) |
| S | 6 | 13 | Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North) | 41.6148 | 20 | 1272.5 |
| S | 7 | 16 | New Lenox (Providence Catholic) | 41.5208 | 38 | 1296.08 |
| S | 8 | 18 | Peoria (H.S.) | 40.7071 | 29 | 1270 |
| S | 9 | 19 | Metamora | 40.7947 | 27 | 923 |
| S | 10 | 20 | Joliet (Catholic Academy) | 41.5449 | 24 | 965.25 |
| S | 11 | 21 | Carbondale (H.S.) | 37.7273 | 24 | 938.5 |
| S | 12 | 22 | Troy (Triad) | 38.7156 | 23 | 1198 |
| S | 13 | 24 | Marion (H.S.) | 37.7306 | 20 | 1134.5 |
| S | 14 | 25 | Champaign (Centennial) | 40.1060 | 20 | 1363 |
| S | 15 | 31 | LaSalle (Peru) | 41.3325 | 30 | 1210 |
| S | 16 | 32 | Decatur (MacArthur) | 39.8537 | 27 | 1145.5 |
Unfortunately they do not go strictly off latitude.
For instance, a team like Sterling can go to the Southern bracket rather than a farther south team because they are so far west and away from the rest. And if there are multiple Chicago schools, they may keep a more southern one in over a slightly more northern suburb counterpart. The IHSA says they use a computer program that optimizes the brackets for travel but they will still make human adjustments at times. It’s more art than science.
With that said, your brackets are still the most likely outcome based on recent history. Lemont/Sterling and Thornton Fractional North/Hillcrest are the only teams I could potentially see moving.
Interesting. And if they make adjustments.....yuck. I hate anything that is arbitrary.
I believe Ottawa will also beat LP this Friday night that would make them playoff eligible with a win against Woodstock HS in week 9. As there’s no way Ottawa beats Morris week 8. So I would pencil them into 5A I believe and most likely end up south based on location.
Sterling has usually trended north in recent years and Ottawa and LP were both south last year
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256 teams make the playoffs. That's fact. All these other numbers are unofficial and compiled by a very old man.
167 teams already have 5 or more wins.
81 teams have a 4-3 record and need to go 1-1 in last two weeks to hit 5.
So, that's 248 teams that currently have winning records.
So, as of 7 weeks of play, if a two-week hurricane hits and wipes out weeks 8 and 9 so we only have a 7-game season, then 8 teams currently with just 3 wins will make the playoffs.
78 teams as of right now have 3 wins and can get to 5.
Obviously, not all of the 81 current 4-win teams are going to make it to 5 wins. But it's also obvious that some of the 78 current 3-win teams will win out and make it to 5 wins.
So through 7 weeks, assuming we play 9 weeks, it's just guess work as to if or how many 4-win teams make the postseason.
We know that last year, one 4-5 team made the postseason (Buffalo Grove).
The missing numbers, unfortunately, are I have no idea how the 2023 current 7-week numbers compare to the 7-week 2022 numbers. I see the 2022 7-week data nowhere on the IHSA website.
So I can't say that it looks likely that x number of 4-5 teams will get in, and neither can I guess that zero 4-5 teams will get in.
167 teams already have 5 or more wins.
81 teams have a 4-3 record and need to go 1-1 in last two weeks to hit 5.
So, that's 248 teams that currently have winning records.
So, as of 7 weeks of play, if a two-week hurricane hits and wipes out weeks 8 and 9 so we only have a 7-game season, then 8 teams currently with just 3 wins will make the playoffs.
78 teams as of right now have 3 wins and can get to 5.
Obviously, not all of the 81 current 4-win teams are going to make it to 5 wins. But it's also obvious that some of the 78 current 3-win teams will win out and make it to 5 wins.
So through 7 weeks, assuming we play 9 weeks, it's just guess work as to if or how many 4-win teams make the postseason.
We know that last year, one 4-5 team made the postseason (Buffalo Grove).
The missing numbers, unfortunately, are I have no idea how the 2023 current 7-week numbers compare to the 7-week 2022 numbers. I see the 2022 7-week data nowhere on the IHSA website.
So I can't say that it looks likely that x number of 4-5 teams will get in, and neither can I guess that zero 4-5 teams will get in.
The good news for8A followers is that assuming Lincoln-Way East goes 9-0, the worst Loyola can be seeded is third (8-1 record) which means the powerhouses won't meet until a much-anticipated finalsmatchup at ISU.
If Loyola wins out (9-0, beating Mt. Carmel), it will be the 2 seed to L-W E's 9-0 and No. 1 seed.
The 1 and the 4 are in one half of the bracket and the 2 and 3 are in. the other half.
Loyola at 8-1 has to be the 2 or 3 if L-W E wins. out.
If Loyola wins out (9-0, beating Mt. Carmel), it will be the 2 seed to L-W E's 9-0 and No. 1 seed.
The 1 and the 4 are in one half of the bracket and the 2 and 3 are in. the other half.
Loyola at 8-1 has to be the 2 or 3 if L-W E wins. out.
If LA beasts MC, they're the number one seed.. Of course, the only difference between the first and scond choic, potentially, is the opportunity to wear home uniforms two days after Thanksgiving.
Key is there is no way the two can wind up in same half of the draw which is fortunate for fans.
If both finish 9-0 they are 1-2 In some order based on wins by opponents.
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