NIU to the Mountain West
- Thread starter PowerI66
- Start date
Oh no, I thought we were done with this...if all the good Mountain West schools are leaving (which means all of the TV dollars will be leaving) then why do it?
You are correct in noting that the Mountain West Conference is losing Boise State among other fb programs.
Since conference moves are ONLY made for money, and considering that in the Mountain West, NIU would play 4 road conference games each fall in Nevada, California, Hawaii, etc, … with related travel costs.
Thus, I assume that the Mountsin West football move will be way more lucrative than staying in the Mid-American conference.
So perhaps ESPN is planning to end its money deal with the MAC to play on Tuesday/Wednesday in November.
Those games obviously make the MAC teams TV money but also make the league the worst home-attendance conference in the nation.
Maybe NIU wants to play on Saturday and have more fans at games.
Maybe the Mountain West has a new TV deal coming for 2026 and beyond that is way better than the MAC deal.
We can’t make sense of the deal without the TV dollars.
My thought on this possible football move is that I wish Illinois high schools Would form more football-only conferences, as the. Catholic league/east suburban Catholic Conf. Has done, and also how the Chicago Public League has done.
I get that the ihsa 5-win playoff standard works against building football-only conferences in which elite-team leagues csn be built and bottom feeder-leagues can be built.
It would make the 9-week regular season intense at the top end snd more enjoyable at the other end.
But of course the concept does not work for the current playoff system so it has zero chance of happening.
My knee jerk answer would be "they should have just reorganized the SICA differently" but there are some lot closer to peer conferences elsewhere in the suburbs that could potentially collaborate and do this. To a degree you already see this in the CSL-MSL and the DVC-SWSC schedule arrangements.
Will never be "done with this". In another year or two, the Big10 and SEC will pull a couple schools from other conferences, then the ACC/Big12 will react to fill gaps/expand/merge/??? and it will ripple effect down through all the smaller conferences.
The only way out of the spiral (or maybe the logical end result) is a relegation/promotion concept like Premier League.
To the extent it isn't already NCAA football will become a de factor pro minor league. The euro football model actually does this really elegantly to span from pro to the amateur level.
Granted, my promotion/relegation experience is 100% from watching 'Welcome to Wrexham', and following the team a little, but it would be an awesome concept for fans.
Just for fun, let's say the levels were by conference
SEC
Big10
Big12
ACC
etc, etc
Imagine the drama knowing that Auburn had to beat Alabama two weeks ago to avoid being relegated to the Big10.
Based on standings: Auburn, Kentucky, and MS St would have dropped to the Big10, and Oregon, Indiana, and Penn St would be in the SEC next year.
Just for fun, let's say the levels were by conference
SEC
Big10
Big12
ACC
etc, etc
Imagine the drama knowing that Auburn had to beat Alabama two weeks ago to avoid being relegated to the Big10.
Based on standings: Auburn, Kentucky, and MS St would have dropped to the Big10, and Oregon, Indiana, and Penn St would be in the SEC next year.
Would a be stupid move for NIU to move to the MW so that they can be a last place team. Also all their other sports programs would have to leave the MAC for what the Summit or Horizon League? The MAC is a stable conference the MW is not as you can tell by them trying to add NIU.
In my idea of NCAA promotion relegation there is a premier league that is without conference affiliation, but is the promotion spot from a very broad "SEC" and "BigTen". So every school will eventually funnels through those affiliation which are broadly regional N/S. All other conference names for football become mere branding and licensing agreements.
Top 12 premier league. 11 game round Robin regular season with 1 non-league "rivalry" game permitted.
Top 4 playoff for championship.
Bottom 4 auto relegated and placed in either "Big Ten" or "SEC" first according to historical ties and second on N/S alignment.
Big Ten and SEC 24 teams each split into 2 12 team divisions arranged E/W. 11 game round Robin regular season with 1 rivalry game permitted. Division A #1 v Division B #2 and Division B #1 v Division A #2 for 4 NYE Bowl games to dictate promotion. Bottom team in each division auto relegated.
Thats 60 teams. Tier 3 is split into 8 regional divisions with 2:1 relationship to each of the 4 Tier 2 divisions where a 1 v 1 non NYE bowl matchup wins promotion. That's probably an additional 64-80 teams.
Remaining 120-136 ish teams sorted into direct 1:1 feeder tiers to tier 3 divisions for a direct 1 up 1 down auto promotion/relegation. You could do 2 or 3 more tiers depending how much crossover play you want. But they play in smaller divisions with truncated division schedule with cross league and cross division games rounding out regular season play.
Top half teams not eligible for promotion bowl game can play exhibition bowl games - those are unaffiliated play, but permitted.
TV contracts revenue shsre and NIL salary caps move up/down commiserate with each league annually. Bottom 2-4 tiers will basically be scholarship only levels and eventually players/teams will seemlessly move from basically amateur play to pro in Premier.
Call me nuts, but it would be a very compelling college landscape. And Big Ten and SEC can't just continue to canabilize like they have been. Eventually they canabilize too much and become too big and need to chart new path which may be full separation, but maybe if we're lucky is releation/promotion. Historical conferences for all sports but football return to normalcy.
I don't like the current environment and the inevitable changes to come either and the entire tradition of the sport is being erased, but the reality is that the Big Ten and SEC have complete control of the future of this sport. They aren't giving it up or sharing it with anyone. Oregon and Texas snuck into the free world just before the Berlin Wall was constructed.
Miami, Clemson, and FSU, ASU, and Colorado (plus VT, GT, UNC, etc) are programs that got stuck in East Berlin but are desperately searching for the tiny crack to get to the free world.
Even ND will be squeezed at some point this decade to pick one of the big 2 leagues to join. Vanderbilt and Northwestern are lucky to be on the right side of this, but the reality is the 40-48 programs that end up getting Golden Tickets to the Big Two aren't going to consider knocking down the Berlin Wall. They are going to build it higher to keep Kansas State, Iowa State, and Wake Forest from diluting their revenue pool. They may even try to throw Rutgers and some others back over the wall.
It is bad for the game, but it is the sad reality of where this is headed. And programs won't like it when blue bloods end up regularly finishing around .500 because the leagues have too many "name brands." Oklahoma was Oklahoma and Nebraska was Nebraska back in the day because there were a few good teams in each league and the rest was cannon fodder. In the new environment, all of the brand names will be concentrated into two leagues so each league will have 16-20 brand names and only 4-8 teams as cannon fodder.
That's too many losses to go around to keep all the blue bloods recognized as true blue bloods. It is going to get real interesting as brands start to lose their mystique while simultaneously closing the door on any chance for additional cannon fodder to enter one of the prized big two leagues.
unfortunately, I agree with everything you posted.
That's why, just spitballing as fans, for a relegation/promotion type plan to actually happen, would take a SEC/Big10 "premier" league of 40 teams. That's basically those 2 conferences now, with another handful of the top other schools added. Could easily figure out a schedule/playoff system based off four 10 team divisions. All the big money and most of '5 star' prospects would be there. The relegation aspect of it keeps the "Purdue" types on their toes, and adds a whole other marketing angle for ESPN/Fox/etc to play. Imagine a "champions" level league with playoffs that promote schools up to premier. Would draw much higher ratings (and $$$) than all the random bowls.
I generally agree with what you've said. I think that my proposal helps accomplish that. It keeps things fairly separated in that top 60 where even tier 2 is gonna get most of the benefit they have today, (that's a lot of TV money to still spread to feature regular season matchups) but you're gonna make those last twenty or so teams into the SEC/BIGTen affiliation basically earn their keep. The true blue bloods should be able to keep themselves in the top 56 each year. But if any of the bottom feeders push back because of the possibility they get relegated out of relevance... That will be the fight I guess.
If they completely shut out into a 60 team super league I think they may becomes too insular... Maybe keeping that sliver of connection through promotion helps though... We'll see though.
