First IHSA Playoff Outlook was released this afternoon.
Doesn't mean much this early in the year, but interesting to glance through.
Doesn't mean much this early in the year, but interesting to glance through.
IHSA Playoff Outlook Week 8
- Thread starter Rollinnolan05
- Start date
All.... Not quite yet. They put out an early one on occasion from time to time. This is one of them. It's about 99% complete but there are several 2 and 2 teams not updated. Which when added in eventually has the possibility to shift bubble teams. Update could arrive as early as 10am today. Ratsy
Makes for some topics of discussion, but the outlook isn’t super accurate. Obviously it will get a little better every week.
Wilmington currently listed as 2nd smallest 3A school. The smallest 3A school is Lisle who is currently 0-5 and has no chance at making the playoffs, yet they are still listed.
Wilmington currently listed as 2nd smallest 3A school. The smallest 3A school is Lisle who is currently 0-5 and has no chance at making the playoffs, yet they are still listed.
Steve Soucie has his playoff projections, which is more accurate than the IHSA Playoff Outlook page. I think you need to subscribe to Local Shaw to see his weekly projections.
There is a few 4-4 teams currently listed in 1A/2A (seeded 33+) that are likely to win week 9 and push everyone up a couple notches, assuming all 5-4 teams get in.
Wilmington currently listed as second biggest 2A, but that seems likely to change.
All.... If the Ihsa numbers are correct. With 256 spots among the eight classes. Showing 144 have clinched . (112) Currently 82 schools at 5-3. (30) There are 60 teams at 4-4 remaining with 30 slots left. Haven't looked at the 60 but that is a healthy number . Up to now it looked like a handful of 4 and 5's would get in. And that might still happen. Or some 5-4's with low playoff points won't get in if over 50% of that 60 win. Ratsy
The average top end of 1A the past 16 years is 303. The lowest it has been is 292. I think Althoff is secure in its 1A clkassification.
All.... This means little but quickly looked at the remaining 60 who are 4-4. Gave a w to all that had a better record. A couple of those CPL teams who are 4-4 put them in the L column because they are done after eight games. And I believe they are having some type of a divsion run off for some cpl teams to qualify for postseason play which skews some of these numbers possibly. Taylorville plays a St. louis team and no record is shown gave them the W because I like Angelo's pizza in Taylorville.
The unscientific no bearing number I came up with 28-32. Ratsy
The unscientific no bearing number I came up with 28-32. Ratsy
I used to go to Angelo's after every football game. Their pizza sauce is a little too sweet these days but still good food compared to Micky D's!
U can't leave T-Ville without stopping at Tasty Treat for some ice cream.
Interesting. Never been to Angelo's but I too am not a fan of sweet sauce.
My only slightly more scientific version came out with 30-30 without me putting my finger on the scales at all...I'm putting together a projection because I'm bored at work but I have to figure out the CPL process...and i'm kinda getting tired of it. Pizza sounds good though...
Looks to me after spending 20 minutes on this that morris will move to 5A leaving StL as the largest 4A. Unless providence upsets JCA or grayslake central defeats Antioch
Three of the teams I follow closest (Wilmington, Morris and Bradley) have consistently been right around the cut line each of the past few years.
Always an interesting time.
And how many 4-4 6A-8A will push those teams down or keep them where they're at with a win? Love this time of year. Guess we'll find out on Saturday.
Because I like Excel...I messed around in there trying to do a projection. There are possibly (maybe likely) some errors in here regarding CPL teams that may not be eligible even if they hit the win threshold. I'm still a little confused on that process. Going in to week 9 I had 226 teams with 5 wins or more and 60 teams with a 4-4 record. Oddly enough - none of them play each other. I went thru those 60 teams remaining games and assigned wins/losses based on their upcoming opponents record and when I couldn't decide I glanced at their SOS and performance against winning/.500 teams. Without intending to do so the 4-4 teams went exactly 30-30 in my breakdown so it worked out to an even 256. From what I've heard this seems unlikely, and if 4-5 teams are needed I did not want to do the math for playoff points. Likewise due to that, the below is sorted by enrollment, not seed. Mild upsets by Jacksonville-Routt and Fithian-Oakwood in Week 8 pushed a bunch of teams up as they both became 1A playoff participants. Deer Creek-Mackinac (sorry Chiefs, my Michigan blood compels me to use the correct spelling) also scored an upset win last week and now plays a 2-7 squad giving them a great shot at running the table to get to their 5 wins for a 2A birth. I didn't do much analysis beyond that. I will thank you all to ignore the Michigan comment above...I was at the Illini game...My son will be a fan of any of the "Fightin-In State Tuitions" by the time he reaches college age. Anyway - Dissect/Ignore...Have a good day, I'm gonna go get pizza.
| 1A | |||
| Ottawa (Marquette) | 5 | 3 | 154 |
| Stockton | 5 | 3 | 161 |
| Nokomis | 5 | 3 | 173.5 |
| Carrollton | 5 | 3 | 190 |
| Hardin (Calhoun) [Coop] | 7 | 1 | 193.5 |
| Aurora (Christian) | 5 | 3 | 200 |
| Sterling (Newman Central Catholic) | 7 | 1 | 210 |
| Princeville | 7 | 1 | 210.5 |
| Mt. Sterling (Brown County) | 4 | 4 | 215.5 |
| Moweaqua (Central A & M) | 5 | 3 | 219.5 |
| Toulon (Stark County) | 7 | 1 | 220 |
| Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop] | 6 | 2 | 221 |
| LeRoy | 8 | 0 | 226.5 |
| Casey (Westfield) | 7 | 1 | 231.5 |
| Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-Wethersfield Coop] | 5 | 3 | 236 |
| Lena (L.-Winslow) | 8 | 0 | 239.5 |
| Winchester [West Central Coop] | 6 | 2 | 241 |
| Galena (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 242.5 |
| Catlin (Salt Fork) | 5 | 3 | 246 |
| Camp Point (Central) | 7 | 1 | 247.5 |
| Bridgeport (Red Hill) | 5 | 3 | 252.5 |
| Dupo | 5 | 3 | 258 |
| Jacksonville (Routt) [Coop] | 5 | 3 | 266 |
| Rushville (R.-Industry) | 7 | 1 | 273.5 |
| Chicago (C. Hope Academy) | 4 | 4 | 274.5 |
| Sesser (Valier) [Coop] | 7 | 1 | 279 |
| Tuscola | 5 | 3 | 279 |
| Gibson City (Melvin-Sibley) | 7 | 1 | 279.5 |
| Rockford (Lutheran) | 6 | 2 | 282 |
| Belleville (Althoff Catholic) | 8 | 0 | 288.5 |
| Toledo (Cumberland) | 6 | 2 | 289.5 |
| Fithian (Oakwood) | 5 | 3 | 296.5 |
As a fan, I think they would be pretty heavy favorites in 2A - At least to make it to the finals.
3A north could be a lot of fun to watch play out though.
There is a pretty significant jump in difficulty level. You are talking about potentially having to go through both Montini and Byron. That’s a tough road.
| 2A | |||
| Mackinaw (Deer Creek) | 4 | 4 | 299 |
| Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) | 8 | 0 | 303 |
| Bloomington (Central Catholic) | 5 | 3 | 304.5 |
| Momence | 7 | 1 | 307 |
| Warrensburg (W.-Latham) | 6 | 2 | 313 |
| Palos Heights (Chicago Christian) | 7 | 1 | 316 |
| Downs (Tri-Valley) | 7 | 1 | 319 |
| Carthage (Illini West) | 5 | 3 | 321.5 |
| Johnston City | 7 | 1 | 328.5 |
| Chester | 8 | 0 | 330 |
| Lanark (Eastland) [Eastland-Pearl City Coop] | 6 | 2 | 330 |
| Maroa (M.-Forsyth) | 7 | 1 | 344.5 |
| Shelbyville | 6 | 2 | 349.5 |
| Farmington | 8 | 0 | 351 |
| Bismarck (B.-Henning-Rossville-Alvin) | 8 | 0 | 356 |
| Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop] | 5 | 3 | 359 |
| Taylor Ridge (Rockridge) | 6 | 2 | 361 |
| Westville | 5 | 3 | 364 |
| Carmi (White County) | 7 | 1 | 368 |
| Flora | 5 | 3 | 368 |
| Red Bud | 4 | 4 | 371.5 |
| Decatur (St. Teresa) | 5 | 3 | 372.9 |
| Virden (North Mac) | 6 | 2 | 373 |
| El Paso (Gridley) | 5 | 3 | 374 |
| Quincy (Notre Dame) | 7 | 1 | 378.5 |
| Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop] | 7 | 1 | 380.5 |
| Vandalia | 7 | 1 | 381 |
| Pana (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 387 |
| Seneca | 8 | 0 | 390.5 |
| Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop] | 5 | 3 | 394 |
| Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop] | 5 | 3 | 403.5 |
| Nashville | 7 | 1 | 406.5 |
| 3A | |||
| Wilmington | 8 | 0 | 409.5 |
| Carlinville | 4 | 4 | 412 |
| Paxton (Buckley-Loda) | 6 | 2 | 415.5 |
| Oregon | 4 | 4 | 417 |
| Chicago (Marshall) [Coop] | 7 | 1 | 418.5 |
| Fairfield | 5 | 3 | 418.5 |
| Chicago (Carver) | 5 | 3 | 421 |
| St. Joseph (Ogden) | 8 | 0 | 432.5 |
| West Frankfort (Frankfort) | 4 | 4 | 436.5 |
| New Berlin [Coop] | 7 | 1 | 444.5 |
| Eureka | 7 | 1 | 445.5 |
| Byron | 8 | 0 | 449 |
| Pecatonica [Du-Pec Coop] | 7 | 1 | 449.5 |
| DuQuoin (H.S.) | 6 | 2 | 455.5 |
| Peotone | 5 | 3 | 456.5 |
| Chicago (North Lawndale Charter) | 6 | 2 | 458 |
| Williamsville | 7 | 1 | 468.5 |
| Monticello | 7 | 1 | 484.5 |
| Sullivan [Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop] | 8 | 0 | 487 |
| Lombard (Montini) | 6 | 2 | 488 |
| Mt. Carmel | 4 | 4 | 491.5 |
| Stanford (Olympia) | 5 | 3 | 500 |
| Stillman Valley | 5 | 3 | 504.5 |
| Princeton | 7 | 1 | 515 |
| Monmouth (M.-Roseville) | 7 | 1 | 515 |
| Tolono (Unity) | 5 | 3 | 516 |
| Roxana | 6 | 2 | 520 |
| Benton | 5 | 3 | 541.5 |
| Greenville | 7 | 1 | 542 |
| Chicago (King) | 6 | 2 | 542.5 |
| Harrisburg | 5 | 3 | 553 |
| Chicago (Dyett) | 6 | 2 | 554.5 |
| 4A | |||
| Chicago (Phoenix) | 6 | 2 | 559 |
| Chicago (South Shore) | 8 | 0 | 561.5 |
| Peoria (Notre Dame) | 4 | 4 | 563.5 |
| Kewanee (H.S.) | 4 | 4 | 567.5 |
| Richmond (R.-Burton) | 6 | 2 | 572.5 |
| Murphysboro | 6 | 2 | 575.5 |
| Johnsburg | 5 | 3 | 575.5 |
| Sandwich | 5 | 3 | 579 |
| Chicago (Sullivan) | 8 | 0 | 580 |
| Macomb | 6 | 2 | 584.5 |
| Normal (University) | 6 | 2 | 608.5 |
| Manteno | 7 | 1 | 616.5 |
| Columbia | 5 | 3 | 618.5 |
| Coal City | 6 | 2 | 620 |
| Breese (Central) | 8 | 0 | 620.5 |
| Carterville | 6 | 2 | 633 |
| Chicago (Noble/Rauner) | 5 | 3 | 653.5 |
| West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) | 7 | 1 | 669.5 |
| Rockford (Boylan Catholic) | 5 | 3 | 673.5 |
| Chicago (Clemente) | 5 | 3 | 678.5 |
| Olney (Richland County) | 8 | 0 | 709.5 |
| Mt. Zion | 5 | 3 | 732.5 |
| Rochester | 6 | 2 | 754 |
| Dixon (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 760.5 |
| Taylorville | 4 | 4 | 773 |
| Cahokia (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 794 |
| Chicago (Agricultural Science) | 6 | 2 | 813.5 |
| Waterloo (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 831 |
| Chicago (DePaul) | 6 | 2 | 833 |
| Geneseo | 4 | 4 | 840.5 |
| Chicago (Noble/Comer) | 5 | 3 | 842 |
| Burbank (St. Laurence) | 6 | 2 | 844 |
| 5A | |||
| Morris | 5 | 3 | 848 |
| Centralia (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 851.5 |
| Rochelle | 7 | 1 | 868.5 |
| Jacksonville (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 882 |
| Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin) | 5 | 3 | 884.4 |
| Highland | 5 | 3 | 897.5 |
| Chicago (Corliss) [Coop] | 5 | 3 | 922.5 |
| Metamora | 6 | 2 | 923 |
| Woodstock (North) | 6 | 2 | 936 |
| Joliet (Catholic Academy) | 5 | 3 | 965.25 |
| Sterling (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 978.5 |
| Mahomet (Seymour) | 6 | 2 | 996 |
| Tinley Park (H.S.) | 4 | 4 | 1019.5 |
| Freeport (H.S.) | 4 | 4 | 1028.5 |
| Aurora (Marmion Academy) | 4 | 4 | 1041 |
| Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop] | 4 | 4 | 1042 |
| Chicago (Morgan Park) | 7 | 1 | 1045 |
| Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South) | 5 | 3 | 1096.5 |
| Wheaton (St. Francis) | 6 | 2 | 1130.25 |
| Marion (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 1134.5 |
| Chicago (Prosser) | 6 | 2 | 1161 |
| Sycamore (H.S.) | 8 | 0 | 1172.5 |
| Country Club Hills (Hillcrest) | 5 | 3 | 1175 |
| LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy) | 7 | 1 | 1180.58 |
| Chicago (Noble/Bulls) | 4 | 4 | 1182.5 |
| East St. Louis (Sr.) | 8 | 0 | 1194 |
| Troy (Triad) | 7 | 1 | 1198 |
| Chicago (Payton) | 5 | 3 | 1204.5 |
| Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge) | 6 | 2 | 1214 |
| Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep) | 4 | 4 | 1220 |
| Peoria (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 1270 |
| Lisle (Benet Academy) | 5 | 3 | 1271.5 |
| 6A | |||
| Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North) | 5 | 3 | 1272.5 |
| Burlington (Central) | 6 | 2 | 1285 |
| Grayslake (North) | 6 | 2 | 1289.5 |
| Antioch | 6 | 2 | 1290.5 |
| Maple Park (Kaneland) | 5 | 3 | 1326.5 |
| Dunlap | 5 | 3 | 1340.5 |
| Chicago (Simeon) | 7 | 1 | 1374.5 |
| Lemont (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 1377 |
| Wauconda | 6 | 2 | 1385 |
| Bensenville (Fenton) | 6 | 2 | 1392.5 |
| Belvidere (North) | 7 | 1 | 1404.5 |
| Crete (Monee) | 6 | 2 | 1413 |
| Washington | 6 | 2 | 1429.5 |
| Oak Forest | 5 | 3 | 1447 |
| Kankakee (Sr.) | 7 | 1 | 1459.5 |
| Chatham (Glenwood) | 6 | 2 | 1466 |
| Chicago (Amundsen) | 4 | 4 | 1470 |
| Lake Forest (H.S.) | 6 | 2 | 1471.5 |
| Chicago (Kennedy) | 7 | 1 | 1476 |
| Springfield (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 1479 |
| Bloomington (H.S.) | 6 | 2 | 1489 |
| Deerfield (H.S.) | 4 | 4 | 1489.5 |
| Cary (Grove) | 8 | 0 | 1519.5 |
| Chicago (Senn) | 5 | 3 | 1533.5 |
| Oak Lawn (Richards) | 7 | 1 | 1593.5 |
| Chicago (St. Rita) | 6 | 2 | 1603.8 |
| Normal (Community West) | 6 | 2 | 1616.5 |
| Chicago (Mather) | 6 | 2 | 1660.5 |
| Geneva | 8 | 0 | 1698 |
| Fox Lake (Grant) | 5 | 3 | 1782.5 |
| Libertyville | 7 | 1 | 1784 |
| Palos Heights (Shepard) | 6 | 2 | 1802 |
| 7A | |||
| Oak Park (Fenwick) | 6 | 2 | 1819.95 |
| Pekin | 6 | 2 | 1820.5 |
| Wheaton (Warrenville South) | 4 | 4 | 1833 |
| Rockford (Guilford) | 5 | 3 | 1843 |
| Villa Park (Willowbrook) | 5 | 3 | 1868 |
| Quincy (Sr.) | 8 | 0 | 1876 |
| Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais) | 7 | 1 | 1877.5 |
| Summit (Argo) | 4 | 4 | 1877.5 |
| Batavia | 7 | 1 | 1882.5 |
| Addison (A. Trail) | 7 | 1 | 1902 |
| Rockton (Hononegah) | 7 | 1 | 1911 |
| Wheaton (North) | 4 | 4 | 1922 |
| Chicago (Whitney Young) | 8 | 0 | 1924 |
| New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West) | 5 | 3 | 1927.5 |
| Machesney Park (Harlem) | 7 | 1 | 1928 |
| Rolling Meadows | 5 | 3 | 1935.5 |
| St. Charles (North) | 7 | 1 | 1941.5 |
| Des Plaines (Maine West) | 7 | 1 | 1954 |
| New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central) | 5 | 3 | 1960.5 |
| Chicago (Mt. Carmel) | 6 | 2 | 1961.85 |
| Hoffman Estates (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 1972 |
| West Chicago (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 1986 |
| Arlington Heights (Hersey) | 5 | 3 | 1989.5 |
| Algonquin (Jacobs) | 6 | 2 | 2029 |
| Chicago (Lincoln Park) | 7 | 1 | 2088.5 |
| Moline (H.S.) | 6 | 2 | 2093.5 |
| Normal (Community) | 7 | 1 | 2096 |
| Chicago (Brother Rice) | 5 | 3 | 2146.65 |
| Mt. Prospect (Prospect) | 6 | 2 | 2155.5 |
| Downers Grove (North) | 7 | 1 | 2156 |
| Schaumburg (H.S.) | 5 | 3 | 2189.5 |
| Tinley Park (Andrew) | 5 | 3 | 2217 |
Last one - Apologies for the bombardment - It wouldn't let me post them all together and the image format was wonky for some reason...
| 8A | |||
| Lombard (Glenbard East) | 7 | 1 | 2255 |
| Edwardsville (H.S.) | 6 | 2 | 2307 |
| Plainfield (North) | 4 | 4 | 2351.5 |
| Plainfield (South) | 6 | 2 | 2360 |
| Park Ridge (Maine South) | 5 | 3 | 2382.5 |
| Belleville (East) | 5 | 3 | 2439 |
| Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) | 4 | 4 | 2462.5 |
| Skokie (Niles West) | 4 | 4 | 2476 |
| Naperville (Central) | 8 | 0 | 2591 |
| Palatine (H.S.) | 7 | 1 | 2597.5 |
| Palatine (Fremd) | 7 | 1 | 2608 |
| Naperville (North) | 6 | 2 | 2655.5 |
| Chicago (Marist) | 7 | 1 | 2662.28 |
| Downers Grove (South) | 6 | 2 | 2712 |
| Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) | 8 | 0 | 2729 |
| Minooka | 6 | 2 | 2737 |
| Flossmoor (Homewood-F.) | 4 | 4 | 2750 |
| Elmhurst (York) | 6 | 2 | 2789.5 |
| Barrington | 7 | 1 | 2810.5 |
| Orland Park (Sandburg) | 5 | 3 | 2834 |
| Oswego (H.S.) | 8 | 0 | 2843.5 |
| South Elgin | 5 | 3 | 2849.5 |
| Huntley | 5 | 3 | 2996 |
| Chicago (Curie) | 4 | 4 | 3019 |
| Glenview (Glenbrook South) | 4 | 4 | 3053.5 |
| Wilmette (Loyola Academy) | 6 | 2 | 3276.08 |
| Joliet (West) | 4 | 4 | 3337.5 |
| Aurora (West Aurora) | 8 | 0 | 3561 |
| Gurnee (Warren) | 5 | 3 | 3696.5 |
| Chicago (Taft) | 7 | 1 | 3849 |
| LaGrange (Lyons) | 8 | 0 | 3947 |
| Lincolnshire (Stevenson) | 7 | 1 | 4313.5 |
Well shit. I had a note to remember ESL and completely forgot it. Rita I had no clue about. The obvious solution is to ignore everything above 4A……what a waste of time.
Also in actuality - ESL to 6A just bumps Calumet City - Thornton Fractional North to 5A and Rita to 7A bumps Oak Park - Fenwick to 6
