Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 4-4 with 36 playoff points. 11 teams have that record. 5 of those teams are in the playoffs, and 6 are out. The next tie-breaker used was wins by defeated opponents. Here is the sliver of difference between these teams:
Team 252 - Morrison 4-4/36/16
Team 253 - Senn 4-4/36/14
Team 254 - Corliss 4-4/36/12
Team 255 - Burlington Central 4-4/36/10
Team 256 - Hamilton County 4-4/36/7 --- LAST TEAM IN
Team 257 - Bartlett 4-4/36/7 --- FIRST TEAM OUT
Team 258 - Ag Science 4-4/36/6
Team 259 - Greenville 4-4/36/6
Team 260 - Marengo 4-4/36/6
Team 261 - Flora 4-4/36/6
Team 262 - Rockford Luthern 4-4/36/5
My adjustments....
Check the forfeits first. There are several... UGH!
King is 5-4 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 4-4/36/12, and they stay in the field.
Noble/Comer is 6-3 with a week 9 forfeit LOSS. Change them to 6-2/34, and they stay in the field.
Vocational is 4-5 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 3-5/45, and they now MISS the field.
Danville is 6-3 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 5-3/26, and they stay in the field.
Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!
All that is left is to find the last team out, and make them the first team in. Bartlett was Team 257 at 4-4/36/7. They are the only team with that record, so we don't need further tie-breakers.
My adjustments.... Bartlett goes into the field, in 8A. Glenbard East moves down to 7A. Eisenhower moves down to 6A. Benet moves down to 5A. Centralia moves down to 4A. Vocational is removed from playoffs, out of 4A
THAT'S IT!
NOTES:
- I'll do 2A and 1A Tuesday night. I went to the Ole Miss game this weekend, and I'm friggin wiped out right now.
- Biggest/smallest Tuesday as well, edited in.
- THAT QUAD IN 4A!!!!
- As for the York besmirchment as an 8A semi-finalist in last week's post... York has to get there. Right now MS, Marist, and GBW all lurk in their quad.
- Meanwhile, the other 8A semi team, playing LWE, would be.... umm... hmmm... I don't know??? PN? Are they scary?
- If the matchups break a little different in 5A, it could be a CCL/ESCC take over in the Upper Bracket. 7 of the 8 teams in R2 could be Catholic schools
- Morgan Park went south in 5A
- Sterling went south in 5A also. The dividing line came way north this week. Seemed to be a decision between Sterling and Benet.
- I chose to keep Benet north with close neighbors GBS and several conference rivals. Who knows what the IHSA will do. Heck, Benet might end up in 6A.
- Morris came back north in 4A
- Noble/Comer is forfeiting this week, but playoff eligible. Why the forfeit? Will they play in the playoffs?
- If Noble/Comer is done, Ag Science gets in.
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Bartlett at #1 Lincoln-Way East
#17 Naperville North at #16 Lyons
#25 Downers Grove South at #8 Huntley
#24 Stevenson at #9 Lane
#29 Hinsdale Central at #4 Plainfield North
#20 Homewood-Flossmoor at #13 Naperville Central
#28 Oak Park at #5 South Elgin
#21 Bolingbrook at #12 Glenbrook South
Lower Bracket
#31 Belleville East at #2 Loyola
#18 Neuqua Valley at #15 Edwardsville
#26 Plainfield South at #7 Palatine
#23 Minooka at #10 Warren
#30 New Trier at #3 York
#19 Marist at #14 Maine South
#27 Oswego East at #6 Glenbard West
#22 Lockport at #11 O'Fallon
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Rolling Meadows at #1 Mt. Carmel
#17 Hoffman Estates at #16 Elk Grove
#25 Libertyville at #8 Jacobs
#24 Andrew at #9 Collinsville
#29 Reavis at #4 St. Charles North
#20 Lincoln Park at #13 Downers Grove North
#28 DeKalb at #5 Prospect
#21 Brother Rice at #12 Lake Zurich
Lower Bracket
#31 Buffalo Grove at #2 Hersey
#18 Hononegah at #15 Batavia
#26 Geneva at #7 Yorkville
#23 Normal at #10 Glenbard East
#30 Argo at #3 Pekin
#19 Guilford at #14 St. Rita
#27 Larkin at #6 Wheaton North
#22 Bradley-Bourbannais at #11 Moline
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Senn at #1 Wauconda
#9 Antioch #8 Riverside-Brookfield
#13 Schurz at #4 Grayslake North
#12 Crystal Lake South at #5 Notre Dame
#15 Deerfield at #2 Prairie Ridge
#10 Kenwood at #7 Amundsen
#14 Grayslake Central at #3 Belvidere North
#11 Harlem at #6 St. Ignatius
Lower Bracket
#16 Rock Island at #1 Lemont
#9 Glenwood at #8 Crete-Monee
#13 Oak Forest at #4 Perspectives/Leadership*
#12 Washington at #5 Centennial
#15 Danville at #2 Simeon
#10 Quincy at #7 East St. Louis
#14 Eisenhower at #3 Normal West
#11 Richards at #6 Bremen
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Burlington Central at #1 Sycamore
#9 Fenwick #8 Carmel
#13 St. Viator at #4 Payton
#12 Benet Academy at #5 Noble/Bulls
#15 Lakes at #2 Boylan Catholic
#10 St. Patrick at #7 Kaneland
#14 Noble/Pritzker at #3 Glenbard South
#11 Nazareth at #6 Noble/TW Speer
Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Vernon at #1 Mahomet-Seymour
#9 Mascoutah #8 Triad
#13 MacArtur at #4 Morgan Park
#12 Jacksonville at #5 Goode
#15 Dunlap at #2 Highland
#10 Metamora at #7 Sterling
#14 Marion at #3 Peoria
#11 LaSalle-Peru at #6 Kankakee
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Spring Valley-Hall at #1 Richmond-Burton
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Noble/Comer
#13 Sullivan at #4 Morris
#12 Dixon at #5 Rochelle
#15 Providence at #2 St. Francis
#10 Phillips at #7 Joliet Catholic
#14 Ridgewood at #3 Hyde Park
#11 Geneseo at #6 Wheaton Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 Cahokia at #1 Carterville
#9 Murphysboro #8 Columbia
#13 Waterloo at #4 Rochester
#12 Coal City at #5 Centralia
#15 Quincy Notre Dame at #2 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#10 Richland County at #7 Breese Central
#14 Mt. Zion at #3 Macomb
#11 Effingham at #6 Wood River-East Alton
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 King at #1 Princeton
#9 Genoa-Kingston at #8 Du-Pec Coop*
#13 Carver at #4 Seneca
#12 Winnebago at #5 Immaculate Conception
#15 Lisle at #2 Stillman Valley
#10 Catalyst/Maria at #7 Urban Prep/Bronzeville
#14 Peotone at #3 Reed-Custer
#11 Roseville at #6 Byron
Lower Bracket
#16 Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop at #1 Prairie Central
#9 St. Joseph-Ogden at #8 Monticello
#13 Paxton-Buckley-Loda at #4 Tolono Unity
#12 Carlinville at #5 Williamsville
#15 Beardstown at #2 Mt. Carmel
#10 Roxana at #7 Harrisburg
#14 Robinson at #3 Benton
#11 Hillsboro at #6 Eureka
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 4-4 with 36 playoff points. 11 teams have that record. 5 of those teams are in the playoffs, and 6 are out. The next tie-breaker used was wins by defeated opponents. Here is the sliver of difference between these teams:
Team 252 - Morrison 4-4/36/16
Team 253 - Senn 4-4/36/14
Team 254 - Corliss 4-4/36/12
Team 255 - Burlington Central 4-4/36/10
Team 256 - Hamilton County 4-4/36/7 --- LAST TEAM IN
Team 257 - Bartlett 4-4/36/7 --- FIRST TEAM OUT
Team 258 - Ag Science 4-4/36/6
Team 259 - Greenville 4-4/36/6
Team 260 - Marengo 4-4/36/6
Team 261 - Flora 4-4/36/6
Team 262 - Rockford Luthern 4-4/36/5
My adjustments....
Check the forfeits first. There are several... UGH!
King is 5-4 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 4-4/36/12, and they stay in the field.
Noble/Comer is 6-3 with a week 9 forfeit LOSS. Change them to 6-2/34, and they stay in the field.
Vocational is 4-5 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 3-5/45, and they now MISS the field.
Danville is 6-3 with a week 9 forfeit win. Change them to 5-3/26, and they stay in the field.
Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!
All that is left is to find the last team out, and make them the first team in. Bartlett was Team 257 at 4-4/36/7. They are the only team with that record, so we don't need further tie-breakers.
My adjustments.... Bartlett goes into the field, in 8A. Glenbard East moves down to 7A. Eisenhower moves down to 6A. Benet moves down to 5A. Centralia moves down to 4A. Vocational is removed from playoffs, out of 4A
THAT'S IT!
NOTES:
- I'll do 2A and 1A Tuesday night. I went to the Ole Miss game this weekend, and I'm friggin wiped out right now.
- Biggest/smallest Tuesday as well, edited in.
- THAT QUAD IN 4A!!!!
- As for the York besmirchment as an 8A semi-finalist in last week's post... York has to get there. Right now MS, Marist, and GBW all lurk in their quad.
- Meanwhile, the other 8A semi team, playing LWE, would be.... umm... hmmm... I don't know??? PN? Are they scary?
- If the matchups break a little different in 5A, it could be a CCL/ESCC take over in the Upper Bracket. 7 of the 8 teams in R2 could be Catholic schools
- Morgan Park went south in 5A
- Sterling went south in 5A also. The dividing line came way north this week. Seemed to be a decision between Sterling and Benet.
- I chose to keep Benet north with close neighbors GBS and several conference rivals. Who knows what the IHSA will do. Heck, Benet might end up in 6A.
- Morris came back north in 4A
- Noble/Comer is forfeiting this week, but playoff eligible. Why the forfeit? Will they play in the playoffs?
- If Noble/Comer is done, Ag Science gets in.
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Bartlett at #1 Lincoln-Way East
#17 Naperville North at #16 Lyons
#25 Downers Grove South at #8 Huntley
#24 Stevenson at #9 Lane
#29 Hinsdale Central at #4 Plainfield North
#20 Homewood-Flossmoor at #13 Naperville Central
#28 Oak Park at #5 South Elgin
#21 Bolingbrook at #12 Glenbrook South
Lower Bracket
#31 Belleville East at #2 Loyola
#18 Neuqua Valley at #15 Edwardsville
#26 Plainfield South at #7 Palatine
#23 Minooka at #10 Warren
#30 New Trier at #3 York
#19 Marist at #14 Maine South
#27 Oswego East at #6 Glenbard West
#22 Lockport at #11 O'Fallon
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Rolling Meadows at #1 Mt. Carmel
#17 Hoffman Estates at #16 Elk Grove
#25 Libertyville at #8 Jacobs
#24 Andrew at #9 Collinsville
#29 Reavis at #4 St. Charles North
#20 Lincoln Park at #13 Downers Grove North
#28 DeKalb at #5 Prospect
#21 Brother Rice at #12 Lake Zurich
Lower Bracket
#31 Buffalo Grove at #2 Hersey
#18 Hononegah at #15 Batavia
#26 Geneva at #7 Yorkville
#23 Normal at #10 Glenbard East
#30 Argo at #3 Pekin
#19 Guilford at #14 St. Rita
#27 Larkin at #6 Wheaton North
#22 Bradley-Bourbannais at #11 Moline
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Senn at #1 Wauconda
#9 Antioch #8 Riverside-Brookfield
#13 Schurz at #4 Grayslake North
#12 Crystal Lake South at #5 Notre Dame
#15 Deerfield at #2 Prairie Ridge
#10 Kenwood at #7 Amundsen
#14 Grayslake Central at #3 Belvidere North
#11 Harlem at #6 St. Ignatius
Lower Bracket
#16 Rock Island at #1 Lemont
#9 Glenwood at #8 Crete-Monee
#13 Oak Forest at #4 Perspectives/Leadership*
#12 Washington at #5 Centennial
#15 Danville at #2 Simeon
#10 Quincy at #7 East St. Louis
#14 Eisenhower at #3 Normal West
#11 Richards at #6 Bremen
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Burlington Central at #1 Sycamore
#9 Fenwick #8 Carmel
#13 St. Viator at #4 Payton
#12 Benet Academy at #5 Noble/Bulls
#15 Lakes at #2 Boylan Catholic
#10 St. Patrick at #7 Kaneland
#14 Noble/Pritzker at #3 Glenbard South
#11 Nazareth at #6 Noble/TW Speer
Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Vernon at #1 Mahomet-Seymour
#9 Mascoutah #8 Triad
#13 MacArtur at #4 Morgan Park
#12 Jacksonville at #5 Goode
#15 Dunlap at #2 Highland
#10 Metamora at #7 Sterling
#14 Marion at #3 Peoria
#11 LaSalle-Peru at #6 Kankakee
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Spring Valley-Hall at #1 Richmond-Burton
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Noble/Comer
#13 Sullivan at #4 Morris
#12 Dixon at #5 Rochelle
#15 Providence at #2 St. Francis
#10 Phillips at #7 Joliet Catholic
#14 Ridgewood at #3 Hyde Park
#11 Geneseo at #6 Wheaton Academy
Lower Bracket
#16 Cahokia at #1 Carterville
#9 Murphysboro #8 Columbia
#13 Waterloo at #4 Rochester
#12 Coal City at #5 Centralia
#15 Quincy Notre Dame at #2 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#10 Richland County at #7 Breese Central
#14 Mt. Zion at #3 Macomb
#11 Effingham at #6 Wood River-East Alton
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 King at #1 Princeton
#9 Genoa-Kingston at #8 Du-Pec Coop*
#13 Carver at #4 Seneca
#12 Winnebago at #5 Immaculate Conception
#15 Lisle at #2 Stillman Valley
#10 Catalyst/Maria at #7 Urban Prep/Bronzeville
#14 Peotone at #3 Reed-Custer
#11 Roseville at #6 Byron
Lower Bracket
#16 Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop at #1 Prairie Central
#9 St. Joseph-Ogden at #8 Monticello
#13 Paxton-Buckley-Loda at #4 Tolono Unity
#12 Carlinville at #5 Williamsville
#15 Beardstown at #2 Mt. Carmel
#10 Roxana at #7 Harrisburg
#14 Robinson at #3 Benton
#11 Hillsboro at #6 Eureka
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