Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments..... NONE!
The IHSA moved IC, ESTL, and LA into the classes the petitioned up to already. They've never done this before. Thanks guys! Also, assuming only conferences with 6 teams or more get an automatic qualifier (as in years past), every conference that should be accounted for in the field, is.
Of note, in the 5-member "Heart of Illinois Small" conference, the two teams with the best record fall just outside of the playoff field, as of now. They are Colfax-Ridgeview Coop (3-4/34) and Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley (3-4/35). The link for "How the playoffs are determined" in the Outlook is broken. If they change the rules to accommodate smaller conferences, one of those teams would get in. Kaneland is the last team in, and would be replaced.
THE CUT-OFF
Right now, the cut-off is 3-4/36. In fact, 14 teams with a 3-4 record are in the field. By comparison, the cut-off in Week 8 of 2019 was 4-3/25. The cut-off in Week 8 of 2018 was 4-3/27. We're definitely trending down.
Keep in mind, these are the 3-4 teams with the highest playoff points. In order, they are:
Providence 44 playoff points
Rolling Meadows 42
Waterloo 41
Highland 41
Montini 40
St. Laurence 40
Mattoon 40
Shepard 40
Hillcrest 39
Wheaton-Warrenville South 39
Sandburg 39
Lincoln-Way West 38
West Aurora 38
Kaneland 36 (last team in)
The first four teams out are below. I'm not checking the tie-breakers to see how these four teams should be ranked. But, as you can see, they all have as many playoff points as the last team in.
Minooka 36
St. Viator 36
Stevenson 36
Nazareth 36
THAT'S IT!
MY NOTES:
- Lots of CPS teams in Upper 5A
- Montini/IC rematch is very close
- All the rivalries and rematches we had last week are completely gone.
- The quads featuring 3 or 4 neighboring schools are gone too.
- No more ND versus ND.
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 West Aurora at #1 Loyola
#17 Glenbard North* at #16 Plainfield North
#25 Naperville Central at #8 Glenbrook South
#24 Palatine at #9 Hinsdale Central
#29 Bartlett at #4 Lockport
#20 Bolingbrook at #13 Oswego
#28 Lyons at #5 Maine South
#21 Edwardsville at #12 Oswego East
Lower Bracket
#31 Sandburg at #2 South Elgin
#18 Evanston at #15 Marist
#26 New Trier at #7 Warren
#23 Naperville North at #10 Glenbard West
#30 Rich at #3 Neuqua Valley
#19 O'Fallon at #14 Lincoln-Way East
#27 Homewood-Flossmoor at #6 York
#22 Taft at #11 Glenbard East
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Lincoln-Way West at #1 Batavia
#17 Libertyville at #16 St. Rita
#25 Eisenhower at #8 Buffalo Grove
#24 Geneva at #9 TF South
#29 Rolling Meadows at #4 Normal
#20 Willowbrook at #13 Plainfield Central
#28 Andrew^ at #5 Wheaton North
#21 Downers North at #12 Hoffman Collinsville
Lower Bracket
#31 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #2 Hononegah
#18 Pekin at #15 Brother Rice
#26 Jacobs at #7 Moline
#23 St. Charles North at #10 Hoffman Estates
#30 Shepard* at #3 Hersey
#19 Thornwood at #14 Mount Carmel
#27 Larkin at #6 Prospect
#22 Yorkville at #11 Whitney Young
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Cary-Grove
#9 Belvidere North #8 Crystal Lake Central
#13 Vernon Hills at #4 Lake Forest
#12 Grayslake Central at #5 Harlem
#15 Rockford East at #2 Wauconda
#10 Prairie Ridge at #7 Hampshire^
#14 Antioch at #3 Amundsen
#11 Mather at #6 Deerfield
Lower Bracket
#16 Kennedy at #1 St. Ignatius
#9 Normal West at #8 Washington
#13 Rock Island at #4 East St. Louis
#12 Benet* at #5 Richards
#15 United at #2 Lemont
#10 Glenwood at #7 Crete-Monee
#14 Centennial at #3 Kenwood
#11 Springfield at #6 Riverside-Brookfield
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Kaneland at #1 Sterling
#9 Noble/Comer* #8 Payton
#13 Morgan Park at #4 Fenwick
#12 Marmion at #5 Sycamore
#15 Steinmetz at #2 Glenbard South
#10 St. Patrick at #7 Brooks
#14 Noble/Bulls at #3 Goode
#11 Boylan at #6 Lakes^
Lower Bracket
#16 Hillcrest at #1 Kankakee
#9 Morton #8 LaSalle-Peru
#13 Providence at #4 Mahomet-Seymour
#12 Dunlap at #5 Marion
#15 Mattoon at #2 Morris
#10 Peoria at #7 Triad
#14 Highland at #3 Mascoutah
#11 Carbondale at #6 Metamora
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 St. Laurence at #1 Joliet Catholic
#9 Dixon #8 Wheaton Academy
#13 Marengo at #4 Sullivan
#12 Plano at #5 St. Francis
#15 Bogan at #2 Richmon-Burton
#10 Rochelle^ at #7 Phillips
#14 Evergreen Park at #3 Stillman Valley*
#11 Hyde Park at #6 Coal City
Lower Bracket
#16 Waterloo at #1 Rochester
#9 Paris at #8 Peoria Notre Dame
#13 Columbia at #4 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#12 Macomb at #5 Mount Zion
#15 Civic Memorial at #2 Murphysboro
#10 Effingham at #7 Freeburg
#14 Salem at #3 Breese Central
#11 Quincy Notre Dame at #6 Carterville
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Montini at #1 Kewanee
#9 Prairie Central at #8 Genoa-Kingston
#13 Lisle at #4 Clark
#12 Carver at #5 Princeton
#15 King at #2 Immaculate Conception
#10 Monmouth-Roseville at #7 Reed-Custer
#14 Peotone at #3 Byron
#11 Mendota at #6 Du-Pec Coop
Lower Bracket
#16 Newton at #1 Tolono Unity
#9 DuQuoin at #8 Eureka
#13 Greenville at #4 Williamsville
#12 St. Joseph-Ogden at #5 Monticello
#15 Southwestern at #2 Mt. Carmel
#10 Harrisburg^ at #7 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#14 Elmwood-Brimfield* at #3 Benton
#11 Hoopeston Area at #6 Carlinville
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments..... NONE!
The IHSA moved IC, ESTL, and LA into the classes the petitioned up to already. They've never done this before. Thanks guys! Also, assuming only conferences with 6 teams or more get an automatic qualifier (as in years past), every conference that should be accounted for in the field, is.
Of note, in the 5-member "Heart of Illinois Small" conference, the two teams with the best record fall just outside of the playoff field, as of now. They are Colfax-Ridgeview Coop (3-4/34) and Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley (3-4/35). The link for "How the playoffs are determined" in the Outlook is broken. If they change the rules to accommodate smaller conferences, one of those teams would get in. Kaneland is the last team in, and would be replaced.
THE CUT-OFF
Right now, the cut-off is 3-4/36. In fact, 14 teams with a 3-4 record are in the field. By comparison, the cut-off in Week 8 of 2019 was 4-3/25. The cut-off in Week 8 of 2018 was 4-3/27. We're definitely trending down.
Keep in mind, these are the 3-4 teams with the highest playoff points. In order, they are:
Providence 44 playoff points
Rolling Meadows 42
Waterloo 41
Highland 41
Montini 40
St. Laurence 40
Mattoon 40
Shepard 40
Hillcrest 39
Wheaton-Warrenville South 39
Sandburg 39
Lincoln-Way West 38
West Aurora 38
Kaneland 36 (last team in)
The first four teams out are below. I'm not checking the tie-breakers to see how these four teams should be ranked. But, as you can see, they all have as many playoff points as the last team in.
Minooka 36
St. Viator 36
Stevenson 36
Nazareth 36
THAT'S IT!
MY NOTES:
- Lots of CPS teams in Upper 5A
- Montini/IC rematch is very close
- All the rivalries and rematches we had last week are completely gone.
- The quads featuring 3 or 4 neighboring schools are gone too.
- No more ND versus ND.
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 West Aurora at #1 Loyola
#17 Glenbard North* at #16 Plainfield North
#25 Naperville Central at #8 Glenbrook South
#24 Palatine at #9 Hinsdale Central
#29 Bartlett at #4 Lockport
#20 Bolingbrook at #13 Oswego
#28 Lyons at #5 Maine South
#21 Edwardsville at #12 Oswego East
Lower Bracket
#31 Sandburg at #2 South Elgin
#18 Evanston at #15 Marist
#26 New Trier at #7 Warren
#23 Naperville North at #10 Glenbard West
#30 Rich at #3 Neuqua Valley
#19 O'Fallon at #14 Lincoln-Way East
#27 Homewood-Flossmoor at #6 York
#22 Taft at #11 Glenbard East
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Lincoln-Way West at #1 Batavia
#17 Libertyville at #16 St. Rita
#25 Eisenhower at #8 Buffalo Grove
#24 Geneva at #9 TF South
#29 Rolling Meadows at #4 Normal
#20 Willowbrook at #13 Plainfield Central
#28 Andrew^ at #5 Wheaton North
#21 Downers North at #12 Hoffman Collinsville
Lower Bracket
#31 Wheaton-Warrenville South at #2 Hononegah
#18 Pekin at #15 Brother Rice
#26 Jacobs at #7 Moline
#23 St. Charles North at #10 Hoffman Estates
#30 Shepard* at #3 Hersey
#19 Thornwood at #14 Mount Carmel
#27 Larkin at #6 Prospect
#22 Yorkville at #11 Whitney Young
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Cary-Grove
#9 Belvidere North #8 Crystal Lake Central
#13 Vernon Hills at #4 Lake Forest
#12 Grayslake Central at #5 Harlem
#15 Rockford East at #2 Wauconda
#10 Prairie Ridge at #7 Hampshire^
#14 Antioch at #3 Amundsen
#11 Mather at #6 Deerfield
Lower Bracket
#16 Kennedy at #1 St. Ignatius
#9 Normal West at #8 Washington
#13 Rock Island at #4 East St. Louis
#12 Benet* at #5 Richards
#15 United at #2 Lemont
#10 Glenwood at #7 Crete-Monee
#14 Centennial at #3 Kenwood
#11 Springfield at #6 Riverside-Brookfield
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Kaneland at #1 Sterling
#9 Noble/Comer* #8 Payton
#13 Morgan Park at #4 Fenwick
#12 Marmion at #5 Sycamore
#15 Steinmetz at #2 Glenbard South
#10 St. Patrick at #7 Brooks
#14 Noble/Bulls at #3 Goode
#11 Boylan at #6 Lakes^
Lower Bracket
#16 Hillcrest at #1 Kankakee
#9 Morton #8 LaSalle-Peru
#13 Providence at #4 Mahomet-Seymour
#12 Dunlap at #5 Marion
#15 Mattoon at #2 Morris
#10 Peoria at #7 Triad
#14 Highland at #3 Mascoutah
#11 Carbondale at #6 Metamora
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 St. Laurence at #1 Joliet Catholic
#9 Dixon #8 Wheaton Academy
#13 Marengo at #4 Sullivan
#12 Plano at #5 St. Francis
#15 Bogan at #2 Richmon-Burton
#10 Rochelle^ at #7 Phillips
#14 Evergreen Park at #3 Stillman Valley*
#11 Hyde Park at #6 Coal City
Lower Bracket
#16 Waterloo at #1 Rochester
#9 Paris at #8 Peoria Notre Dame
#13 Columbia at #4 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#12 Macomb at #5 Mount Zion
#15 Civic Memorial at #2 Murphysboro
#10 Effingham at #7 Freeburg
#14 Salem at #3 Breese Central
#11 Quincy Notre Dame at #6 Carterville
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Montini at #1 Kewanee
#9 Prairie Central at #8 Genoa-Kingston
#13 Lisle at #4 Clark
#12 Carver at #5 Princeton
#15 King at #2 Immaculate Conception
#10 Monmouth-Roseville at #7 Reed-Custer
#14 Peotone at #3 Byron
#11 Mendota at #6 Du-Pec Coop
Lower Bracket
#16 Newton at #1 Tolono Unity
#9 DuQuoin at #8 Eureka
#13 Greenville at #4 Williamsville
#12 St. Joseph-Ogden at #5 Monticello
#15 Southwestern at #2 Mt. Carmel
#10 Harrisburg^ at #7 Paxton-Buckley-Loda
#14 Elmwood-Brimfield* at #3 Benton
#11 Hoopeston Area at #6 Carlinville
