Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments....
I always check the forfeits first, for the last 15 years! Noble/Hansberry (4-3/23), Monmouth/Roseville (4-3/25), and Noble/Speer (6-1/22) have 7 games on their record, rather than 6. They were awarded a victory for a game that would not have been played yet. I take away this win. The playoff points stay the same (and I'm not adjusting their opponent's playoff points, That's too much work for one point) This adjustment actually knocks out Noble/Hansberry (now 3-3/23) and Monmouth/Roseville (now 3-3/25) because the cutoff is 3-3/26. Noble/Speer is still safely in the field, and slides down a few spots.
So the 256 is down to 254.
Before adding 2 teams, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. 3 conferences do not... The Suburban Prairie East, West Suburban Gold, and Central Suburban North. I inserted their conference leaders, Plainfield South (8A), Downers South (8A), and Deerfield (6A) into the playoff field. This gave us 257 teams in the playoff field.
All that is left is to remove the lowest team from the field. In addition to the Outlook, the IHSA now gives us a weekly list of playoff Hopefuls, IN ORDER! This saves me so many clicks. The lowest team in the playoffs, that I need to remove, is Normal at 3-3/26/7 (7 is the defeated opponents wins). Just to illustrate the sliver of difference between some teams, Stevenson is team 255, in the playoffs at 3-3/26/8. Dakota is the last team in at 3-3/26/7. Dakota is listed ahead of Normal, so they must own that next tie-breaker. Normal is now the first team out. Just below Normal is Marion 3-3/26/6 and Raby 3-3/26/5. Also at 3-3/26, but out of the field with low defeated opponents wins, are LeRoy, Mendon Unity, Chgo Richards, Mundelein, Aurora Christian, Ag Science, Olympia, downstate Morton, and New Berlin, That's a lot of teams tied at the third tie-breaker for the last spots in the playoffs.
My adjustments.... I put DGS and Plainfield South in 8A. I put Deerfield in 6A. I take Normal out of 7A. I take Hansberry and Roseville out of 3A. I'm left with classes of 34-31-33-32-32-30-32-32. I move Plainfield North and Edwardsville down to 7A. I move Lake Zurich down to 6A. I move Amundsen and Antioch down to 5A. I move Morris and Centralia down to 4A. Dyett and Urban Prep/Bronzeville go down to 3A. 2A and 1A do not change from the Playoff Outlook.
THAT'S IT!
I'm skipping the biggest/smallest schools in each class again... it's late. Maybe I'll edit them in later.
NOTES:
- Great season Elk Grove. You're the 5-seed! You'll play the lowly 28-seed, at home, as a reward. Oh, it's Brother Rice
- The potential for a ridiculous quad in 8A looms very large.
- The prospect of an "easy" quad (by traditional standards) in 7A is also tantalizingly close to materializing.
- Lockport/Loyola rematch looms here
- Second round in 4A here is Providence @ Richmond-Burton and JCA @ Morris. And the winners get each other. Murderers Row quad.
- In Gravity, Sandra Bullock's character tells George Clooney's character that she's from Lake Zurich, Illinois.
- HF @ Brook R1, and the winner gets the Beast,
- In 6A, #3 R-B gets #14 Senn... while #2 Belvidere North gets stuck with #15 Cary-Grove
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Plainfield South at #1 York
#17 Maine South at #16 Naperville Central
#25 Oak Park at #8 Palatine
#24 Marist at #9 Minooka
#29 Elgin at #4 South Elgin
#20 Naperville North at #13 Glenbrook South
#28 Belleville East at #5 Lane Tech
#21 Bartlett at #12 Warren
Lower Bracket
#31 Downers South at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Homewood-Flossmoor at #15 Bolingbrook
#26 Hinsdale Central at #7 Lyons
#23 Conant at #10 Huntley
#30 Stevenson at #3 Loyola
#19 Lockport at #14 O'Fallon
#27 New Trier at #6 Glenbard West
#22 Oswego East at #11 Neuqua Valley
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Larkin at #1 Mt. Carmel
#17 Guilford at #16 Glenbard East
#25 Argo at #8 Wheaton North
#24 DeKalb at #9 Edwardsville
#29 Lincoln-Way West at #4 Downers North
#20 Batavia at #13 Hononegah
#28 Brother Rice at #5 Elk Grove
#21 Hoffman Estates at #12 Jacobs
Lower Bracket
#31 Libertyville at #2 Hersey
#18 St. Rita at #15 Geneva
#26 Buffalo Grove at #7 Prospect
#23 Lincoln Park at #10 Yorkville
#30 Schaumburg at #3 Plainfield North
#19 Rolling Meadows at #14 Moline
#27 Bradley-Bourbannais at #6 St. Charles North
#22 Andrew at #11 Collinsville
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Deerfield at #1 Wauconda
#9 Crystal Lake South #8 St. Ignatius
#13 Wheeling at #4 Prairie Ridge
#12 Schurz at #5 Grayslake North
#15 Cary-Grove at #2 Belvidere North
#10 Harlem at #7 Notre Dame
#14 Senn at #3 Riverside-Brookfield
#11 Grayslake Central at #6 Lake Zurich
Lower Bracket
#16 Washington at #1 Simeon
#9 East St. Louis at #8 Richards
#13 Kenwood at #4 Centennial
#12 Crete-Monee at #5 Normal West
#15 Eisenhower at #2 Pekin
#10 Rock Island at #7 Bremen
#14 Quincy at #3 Lemont
#11 Oak Forest at #6 Glenwood
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Lakes at #1 Sycamore
#9 Noble/Bulls #8 Payton
#13 Antioch at #4 Boylan
#12 Kaneland at #5 Noble/Speer
#15 Benet at #2 Sterling
#10 Amundsen at #7 St. Viator
#14 Noble/Pritzker at #3 Glenbard South
#11 Carmel at #6 St. Patrick
Lower Bracket
#16 Metamora at #1 Morgan Park
#9 Mascoutah #8 Kankakee
#13 Ottawa at #4 Highland
#12 MacArthur at #5 Mount Vernon
#15 Triad at #2 Mahomet-Seymour
#10 LaSalle-Peru at #7 Goode
#14 Dunlap at #3 Peoria
#11 Jacksonville at #6 Perspectives/Leadership
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Spring Valley-Hall at #1 Richmond-Burton
#9 Coal City #8 Providence
#13 Evergreen Park at #4 Morris
#12 Noble/Comer at #5 Joliet Catholic
#15 Phillips at #2 St. Francis
#10 Geneseo at #7 Wheaton Academy
#14 St. Laurence at #3 Hyde Park
#11 Dixon at #6 Rochelle
Lower Bracket
#16 Normal University at #1 Carterville
#9 Rochester #8 Murphysboro
#13 Freeburg at #4 Wood River-East Alton
#12 Richland County at #5 Breese Cental
#15 Quincy Notre Dame at #2 Macomb
#10 Mount Zion at #7 Waterloo
#14 Effingham at #3 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#11 Columbia at #6 Centralia
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Lisle at #1 Princeton
#9 King at #8 Urban Prep/Bronzeville
#13 Montini at #4 Stillman Valley
#12 DePaul at #5 Immaculate Conception
#15 Catalyst/Maria at #2 Prairie Central
#10 Winnebago at #7 Genoa Kingston
#14 Dyett at #3 Reed-Custer
#11 Peotone at #6 Byron
Lower Bracket
#16 Carlinville at #1 Eureka
#9 Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop at #8 Roxana
#13 Beardstown at #4 Benton
#12 Robinson at #5 Tolono Unity
#15 Hillsboro at #2 Williamsville
#10 Monticello at #7 Harrisburg
#14 St. Joseph-Ogden at #3 Mt. Carmel
#11 Greenville at #6 Paxton Buckley-Loda
Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.
My adjustments....
I always check the forfeits first, for the last 15 years! Noble/Hansberry (4-3/23), Monmouth/Roseville (4-3/25), and Noble/Speer (6-1/22) have 7 games on their record, rather than 6. They were awarded a victory for a game that would not have been played yet. I take away this win. The playoff points stay the same (and I'm not adjusting their opponent's playoff points, That's too much work for one point) This adjustment actually knocks out Noble/Hansberry (now 3-3/23) and Monmouth/Roseville (now 3-3/25) because the cutoff is 3-3/26. Noble/Speer is still safely in the field, and slides down a few spots.
So the 256 is down to 254.
Before adding 2 teams, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. 3 conferences do not... The Suburban Prairie East, West Suburban Gold, and Central Suburban North. I inserted their conference leaders, Plainfield South (8A), Downers South (8A), and Deerfield (6A) into the playoff field. This gave us 257 teams in the playoff field.
All that is left is to remove the lowest team from the field. In addition to the Outlook, the IHSA now gives us a weekly list of playoff Hopefuls, IN ORDER! This saves me so many clicks. The lowest team in the playoffs, that I need to remove, is Normal at 3-3/26/7 (7 is the defeated opponents wins). Just to illustrate the sliver of difference between some teams, Stevenson is team 255, in the playoffs at 3-3/26/8. Dakota is the last team in at 3-3/26/7. Dakota is listed ahead of Normal, so they must own that next tie-breaker. Normal is now the first team out. Just below Normal is Marion 3-3/26/6 and Raby 3-3/26/5. Also at 3-3/26, but out of the field with low defeated opponents wins, are LeRoy, Mendon Unity, Chgo Richards, Mundelein, Aurora Christian, Ag Science, Olympia, downstate Morton, and New Berlin, That's a lot of teams tied at the third tie-breaker for the last spots in the playoffs.
My adjustments.... I put DGS and Plainfield South in 8A. I put Deerfield in 6A. I take Normal out of 7A. I take Hansberry and Roseville out of 3A. I'm left with classes of 34-31-33-32-32-30-32-32. I move Plainfield North and Edwardsville down to 7A. I move Lake Zurich down to 6A. I move Amundsen and Antioch down to 5A. I move Morris and Centralia down to 4A. Dyett and Urban Prep/Bronzeville go down to 3A. 2A and 1A do not change from the Playoff Outlook.
THAT'S IT!
I'm skipping the biggest/smallest schools in each class again... it's late. Maybe I'll edit them in later.
NOTES:
- Great season Elk Grove. You're the 5-seed! You'll play the lowly 28-seed, at home, as a reward. Oh, it's Brother Rice
- The potential for a ridiculous quad in 8A looms very large.
- The prospect of an "easy" quad (by traditional standards) in 7A is also tantalizingly close to materializing.
- Lockport/Loyola rematch looms here
- Second round in 4A here is Providence @ Richmond-Burton and JCA @ Morris. And the winners get each other. Murderers Row quad.
- In Gravity, Sandra Bullock's character tells George Clooney's character that she's from Lake Zurich, Illinois.
- HF @ Brook R1, and the winner gets the Beast,
- In 6A, #3 R-B gets #14 Senn... while #2 Belvidere North gets stuck with #15 Cary-Grove
* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class
~~~ 8A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Plainfield South at #1 York
#17 Maine South at #16 Naperville Central
#25 Oak Park at #8 Palatine
#24 Marist at #9 Minooka
#29 Elgin at #4 South Elgin
#20 Naperville North at #13 Glenbrook South
#28 Belleville East at #5 Lane Tech
#21 Bartlett at #12 Warren
Lower Bracket
#31 Downers South at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Homewood-Flossmoor at #15 Bolingbrook
#26 Hinsdale Central at #7 Lyons
#23 Conant at #10 Huntley
#30 Stevenson at #3 Loyola
#19 Lockport at #14 O'Fallon
#27 New Trier at #6 Glenbard West
#22 Oswego East at #11 Neuqua Valley
~~~ 7A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#32 Larkin at #1 Mt. Carmel
#17 Guilford at #16 Glenbard East
#25 Argo at #8 Wheaton North
#24 DeKalb at #9 Edwardsville
#29 Lincoln-Way West at #4 Downers North
#20 Batavia at #13 Hononegah
#28 Brother Rice at #5 Elk Grove
#21 Hoffman Estates at #12 Jacobs
Lower Bracket
#31 Libertyville at #2 Hersey
#18 St. Rita at #15 Geneva
#26 Buffalo Grove at #7 Prospect
#23 Lincoln Park at #10 Yorkville
#30 Schaumburg at #3 Plainfield North
#19 Rolling Meadows at #14 Moline
#27 Bradley-Bourbannais at #6 St. Charles North
#22 Andrew at #11 Collinsville
~~~ 6A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Deerfield at #1 Wauconda
#9 Crystal Lake South #8 St. Ignatius
#13 Wheeling at #4 Prairie Ridge
#12 Schurz at #5 Grayslake North
#15 Cary-Grove at #2 Belvidere North
#10 Harlem at #7 Notre Dame
#14 Senn at #3 Riverside-Brookfield
#11 Grayslake Central at #6 Lake Zurich
Lower Bracket
#16 Washington at #1 Simeon
#9 East St. Louis at #8 Richards
#13 Kenwood at #4 Centennial
#12 Crete-Monee at #5 Normal West
#15 Eisenhower at #2 Pekin
#10 Rock Island at #7 Bremen
#14 Quincy at #3 Lemont
#11 Oak Forest at #6 Glenwood
~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Lakes at #1 Sycamore
#9 Noble/Bulls #8 Payton
#13 Antioch at #4 Boylan
#12 Kaneland at #5 Noble/Speer
#15 Benet at #2 Sterling
#10 Amundsen at #7 St. Viator
#14 Noble/Pritzker at #3 Glenbard South
#11 Carmel at #6 St. Patrick
Lower Bracket
#16 Metamora at #1 Morgan Park
#9 Mascoutah #8 Kankakee
#13 Ottawa at #4 Highland
#12 MacArthur at #5 Mount Vernon
#15 Triad at #2 Mahomet-Seymour
#10 LaSalle-Peru at #7 Goode
#14 Dunlap at #3 Peoria
#11 Jacksonville at #6 Perspectives/Leadership
~~~ 4A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Spring Valley-Hall at #1 Richmond-Burton
#9 Coal City #8 Providence
#13 Evergreen Park at #4 Morris
#12 Noble/Comer at #5 Joliet Catholic
#15 Phillips at #2 St. Francis
#10 Geneseo at #7 Wheaton Academy
#14 St. Laurence at #3 Hyde Park
#11 Dixon at #6 Rochelle
Lower Bracket
#16 Normal University at #1 Carterville
#9 Rochester #8 Murphysboro
#13 Freeburg at #4 Wood River-East Alton
#12 Richland County at #5 Breese Cental
#15 Quincy Notre Dame at #2 Macomb
#10 Mount Zion at #7 Waterloo
#14 Effingham at #3 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#11 Columbia at #6 Centralia
~~~ 3A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Lisle at #1 Princeton
#9 King at #8 Urban Prep/Bronzeville
#13 Montini at #4 Stillman Valley
#12 DePaul at #5 Immaculate Conception
#15 Catalyst/Maria at #2 Prairie Central
#10 Winnebago at #7 Genoa Kingston
#14 Dyett at #3 Reed-Custer
#11 Peotone at #6 Byron
Lower Bracket
#16 Carlinville at #1 Eureka
#9 Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop at #8 Roxana
#13 Beardstown at #4 Benton
#12 Robinson at #5 Tolono Unity
#15 Hillsboro at #2 Williamsville
#10 Monticello at #7 Harrisburg
#14 St. Joseph-Ogden at #3 Mt. Carmel
#11 Greenville at #6 Paxton Buckley-Loda
