How accurate is Calpreps??
- Thread starter 14decoys
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Gets more and more accurate as the season goes on. I think they end up at about 70-75% for the year, something in that ball park.
I have used the calpreps/massey ratings in the past to win playoff bracket contests. It was an advantage for classes that I wasn't familiar with. Also, I think at that time, not as many people were aware that these ratings and projections were available.
I have used the calpreps/massey ratings in the past to win playoff bracket contests. It was an advantage for classes that I wasn't familiar with. Also, I think at that time, not as many people were aware that these ratings and projections were available.
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What doctor_d said. I would add it sometimes has difficulty with closed conferences as there is not comparative scores to link them to everybody else so sometimes an entire conference can get overrated or underrated by them until the playoffs start due to lack of data.
Guess it's a little higher. And it helped me in the past picking between random schools in in the smallest and largest classes that I knew little about.
So schools with a long history of success, like JCA for example, are given a bit more weight?
Calpreps neutral field projections
[2017] Wilmington (IL) 27, [2017] Lisle (IL) 22
[2017] Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor, IL) 26, [2017] Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 21
Here's a couple examples of games that could be considered toss-ups. We'll see how they do tonight. I'm guessing a 5 point spread indicates that given winner would win something like 55-60 times out of 100. Just a guess on that number.
Keep in mind that Calpreps doesn't list their game "predictions" until October when sufficient data has been collected. These numbers above were pulled from their "project a matchup" where you can (theoretically of course) compare teams from different sizes, areas and eras.
[2017] Wilmington (IL) 27, [2017] Lisle (IL) 22
[2017] Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor, IL) 26, [2017] Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 21
Here's a couple examples of games that could be considered toss-ups. We'll see how they do tonight. I'm guessing a 5 point spread indicates that given winner would win something like 55-60 times out of 100. Just a guess on that number.
Keep in mind that Calpreps doesn't list their game "predictions" until October when sufficient data has been collected. These numbers above were pulled from their "project a matchup" where you can (theoretically of course) compare teams from different sizes, areas and eras.
Pretty sure you are correct, especially preseason rankings and early on. As the season plays out, the numbers start to get fairly close to reality. Like was stated above, closed conferences are sometimes a bit off come playoff time.
It also does not account for stuff like a key player missing the next game due to injury or whatnot.
Here are a couple more that interest me...
2017] DeKalb (IL) 28, [2017] Morris (IL) 14
and Rochelle 24 Geneseo 22
It'll be interesting to see how accurate they are
I also noticed the WORST accuracy % they had last year was in the quarterfinals.....
2017] DeKalb (IL) 28, [2017] Morris (IL) 14
and Rochelle 24 Geneseo 22
It'll be interesting to see how accurate they are
I also noticed the WORST accuracy % they had last year was in the quarterfinals.....
Nah, more like a year, maybe two.
So, week one, they'll just go on last year, maybe the year before. Or maybe their 3-year average final ranking. As the year rolls on, you get a better picture. Only a guess.
Seems to have a glitch with SR-LA this week. They have one common opponent (MC) and SR won 38-21, while LA won 31-7. You'd figure LA would be favored, but alas there's an obvious South Side bias in the system.
Probably had a lacrosse computer spill a drink on him at a party years ago, who knows.
I'm sure the algorithm mechanic had AT as more as TD difference to MCs offense. I was perplexed by the SR -20 line v MC. Ended up SR by 17. i hope the same holds true tonight but that would be a true shocker
looks like calpreps wen't 2-2 in what was supposedly pick 'em games mentioned in this thread. Not all that great but it's still early.
And, oh yeah, that's why they play the games.
[2017] Wilmington (IL) 27, [2017] Lisle (IL) 22
[2017] Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor, IL) 26, [2017] Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 21
2017] DeKalb (IL) 28, [2017] Morris (IL) 14
and Rochelle 24 Geneseo 22
Wilmington 28, Lisle 25
LWE 29, H-F 7
Morris 19, DeKalb 10
Rochelle 41, Geneseo 7
And, oh yeah, that's why they play the games.
[2017] Wilmington (IL) 27, [2017] Lisle (IL) 22
[2017] Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor, IL) 26, [2017] Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 21
2017] DeKalb (IL) 28, [2017] Morris (IL) 14
and Rochelle 24 Geneseo 22
Wilmington 28, Lisle 25
LWE 29, H-F 7
Morris 19, DeKalb 10
Rochelle 41, Geneseo 7
