Fast and dirty playoff outlook

[4Afan]

Currently 220 teams with at least 5 wins and 72 4-4 team. So if exactly half of 4-4 teams win in week 9 there will be no 4-5 teams in the field. I'll leave it to the masses to determine which 4-4 teams will win this week.

 

[doctor_d]

Week 9 is sure to throw a few curveballs.

 

[cornerrat]

Currently 220 teams with at least 5 wins and 72 4-4 team. So if exactly half of 4-4 teams win in week 9 there will be no 4-5 teams in the field. I'll leave it to the masses to determine which 4-4 teams will win this week.

All... Just finished running the numbers 220 is correct but there are 14 schools at 4 and 4 who play each other. So 220 goes to 227 but reduces the overall number. I also mentioned in the other thread Waubonsie at 4-4 according to the Ihsa is not showing a week nine game.

I agree though it doesn't look good for the 4 and 5 schools. NLP which has been in that discussion will beat Benet and get win 5. What class they end up in is unknown for a moment. We will see. Ratsy

 

[4Afan]

All... Just finished running the numbers 220 is correct but there are 14 schools at 4 and 4 who play each other. So 220 goes to 227 but reduces the overall number. I also mentioned in the other thread Waubonsie at 4-4 according to the Ihsa is not showing a week nine game.

I agree though it doesn't look good for the 4 and 5 schools. We will see. Ratsy

Oh wow, didn't know that about WV. IHSA is granting East St. Louis a forfeit win for not having a week 9 opponent so if they do the same for WV then they will have 5 wins and be in.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... If I recall correctly ESTL had a game scheduled and there was a back out by the opponent. I'm sure if that is incorrect someone will post what actually happened. Now if WV was not able to find a week nine game that is a bit different. Smart schools schedule non con games sometimes years in advance. Ratsy

 

[jwarigaku]

All.... If I recall correctly ESTL had a game scheduled and there was a back out by the opponent. I'm sure if that is incorrect someone will post what actually happened. Now if WV was not able to find a week nine game that is a bit different. Smart schools schedule non con games sometimes years in advance. Ratsy

The whole DVC has their “championship/seeded playoff” in the conference this week. They play one of the other DVC teams.

 

[doctor_d]

@jwarigaku is correct. All 6 DVC teams are TBD this week. They play each other

 

[4Afan]

The whole DVC has their “championship/seeded playoff” in the conference this week. They play one of the other DVC teteams.

Thanks for the info, interesting concept. When will the matchups be determined? Is there a set formula for who they play such as first plays last, etc. or does the conference decide?

 

[jwarigaku]

@jwarigaku is correct. All 6 DVC teams are TBD this week. They play each other

Looks like WV plays Naperville North. That doesn’t bode well for WV, but they play the game for a reason.

 

[olderbytheminute]

IHSA appears to list 220 schools with 5 or more wins.
There are 7 Week 9 4-4 vs. 4-4 teams where somebody has to win.
Red Hill vs. Carlyle
Genoa-Kingston vs. Rockford Lutheran
Providence vs. Benet
Noble Hansberry vs. Noble Rowe-Clark
Plano vs. Marengo
Lake Forest vs. Mundelein
Cahokia vs. O'Fallon
That's 227 5-win teams for sure
That leaves 58 4-4 teams in action unaccounted for at this point.
If 29 or more of them win, then no 4-5 teams will make the playoffs.
If fewer than 29 (fewer than half of 58) win, then at least one 4-5 team will qualify.
By my totally unofficial count, I have roughly half the 4-4 teams playing sub-.500 teams and roughly the other half playing above-.500 teams.
I have 4-4 Waubonsie Valley playing a 5-3 Naperville North team which is strictly a guess as WB has no game listed for Week 9.
I have no opinion on how many 4-4 teams I expect to win/lose. Heck, I don't even know where most of these schools are located.
My only opinion is that if I was a fan of Lane Tech (5-3), I'd be rooting like heck for the Indians to win Week 9. If it loses Week 9, it's 5-4 and sitting on a ridiculously low "playoff point" total which likely will put it as either team 256 in the field of 256, or the first team out.

 

[MIKEFTB]

Looks like WV plays Naperville North. That doesn’t bode well for WV, but they play the game for a reason

All of the DVC games this week are considered non-conference. However at 4-4 if Waubonsie wins it would give them a 5th win and I would assume they would qualify for postseason play akong with North who would also be 5-4.A loss by WV and that'll probably be it for the season although now they're all this talk of multiple 4-5 teams qualifying for the playoffs I guess we'll have to wait and see.

5-3 Neuqua Valley plays at 7-1 Naperville Central who have already secured the DVC title. A win by NV would improve their seeding position while Central at 7-2 would drop somewhat.

Both of these games should have somewhat of a playoff type atmosphere about them.

 

[PowerI66]

IHSA appears to list 220 schools with 5 or more wins.
There are 7 Week 9 4-4 vs. 4-4 teams where somebody has to win.
Red Hill vs. Carlyle
Genoa-Kingston vs. Rockford Lutheran
Providence vs. Benet
Noble Hansberry vs. Noble Rowe-Clark
Plano vs. Marengo
Lake Forest vs. Mundelein
Cahokia vs. O'Fallon
That's 227 5-win teams for sure
That leaves 58 4-4 teams in action unaccounted for at this point.
If 29 or more of them win, then no 4-5 teams will make the playoffs.
If fewer than 29 (fewer than half of 58) win, then at least one 4-5 team will qualify.
By my totally unofficial count, I have roughly half the 4-4 teams playing sub-.500 teams and roughly the other half playing above-.500 teams.
I have 4-4 Waubonsie Valley playing a 5-3 Naperville North team which is strictly a guess as WB has no game listed for Week 9.
I have no opinion on how many 4-4 teams I expect to win/lose. Heck, I don't even know where most of these schools are located.
My only opinion is that if I was a fan of Lane Tech (5-3), I'd be rooting like heck for the Indians to win Week 9. If it loses Week 9, it's 5-4 and sitting on a ridiculously low "playoff point" total which likely will put it as either team 256 in the field of 256, or the first team out.

I think Lane will be alright. Likely gaining 4 playoff points this week and there are multiple 4-4 teams with around the same amount of points also

 

[Maj2023]

Oh wow, didn't know that about WV. IHSA is granting East St. Louis a forfeit win for not having a week 9 opponent so if they do the same for WV then they will have 5 wins and be in.

WV will play NN based on the DVC CHAMPIONSHIP weekend format

 

[stl705]

I’m projecting 256 teams with 5 wins right now, including:

8A Plainfield N
OFallon

7A Brother Rice
Mundelein
WWS
West Chicago
Moline

6A PC
CLC
Danville
Deerfield
Lemont

5A Tinley Park
Marion

4A Effingham
St. Viator
DePaul
Plano/Marengo
Ag Science
King
Golder

3A Monmouth Roseville
Fairfield
Oregon
Genoa Kingston
Rowe-Clark

2A Deer Creek
Chester
S’western
Hamilton County
Illini West
Carlyle/Red Hill
Wesclin

1A Stockton
Nokimis
Tuscola

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Do you guys think a 4 win team will get in? Specifically NAZ and PROVI?

 

[4Afan]

Do you guys think a 4 win team will get in? Specifically NAZ and PROVI?

In my opinion, no. If one does it will be one of those two. They can both remove all doubt by winning.

 

[doctor_d]

Highest current playoff points for 4-4 teams:

Brother Rice 49
Providence and Naz 48

Fremd at 3-5 also has 48

 

[Alexander32]

Thanks for the info, interesting concept. When will the matchups be determined? Is there a set formula for who they play such as first plays last, etc. or does the conference decide?

In past years the first-place team played the second-place team, the third-place team played the fourth-place team, and the fifth-place team played the sixth-place team. It sounds like they are using that same format this year.

 

[Wilmatucky]

In past years the first-place team played the second-place team, the third-place team played the fourth-place team, and the fifth-place team played the sixth-place team. It sounds like they are using that same format this year.

This is kind of weird to me in a 6 team conference, where they have each played one another previously. I always thought this would be cool if you could somehow do this with two smaller conferences and have the champions play each other, then the 2nd place teams, and so forth. Not sure if logistically it is worth it though.

 

[doctor_d]

This is kind of weird to me in a 6 team conference, where they have each played one another previously. I always thought this would be cool if you could somehow do this with two smaller conferences and have the champions play each other, then the 2nd place teams, and so forth. Not sure if logistically it is worth it though.

Pretty sure the DVC did this set up strictly due to having issues finding non conference games.
Going forward, they are merging with the SWSC, which will eliminate the need for this.

 

[MIKEFTB]

Thanks for the info, interesting concept. When will the matchups be determined? Is there a set formula for who they play such as first plays last, etc. or does the conference

In past years the first-place team played the second-place team, the third-place team played the fourth-place team, and the fifth-place team played the sixth-place team. It sounds like they are using that same format this year.

That's exactly how it's scheduled. The games are considered non conference games and have no impact on the Conference itself as DVC head to head play concluded Friday.

This is kind of weird to me in a 6 team conference, where they have each played one another previously. I always thought this would be cool if you could somehow do this with two smaller conferences and have the champions play each other, then the 2nd place teams, and so forth. Not sure if logistically it is worth it though.

It nakes scheduling easier. not a lot of teams are going to be available in week 9 for 6 different schools and the same for week 4 when most schools are into their conference play. .For all practical or impractical purposes depending on which way you look at it, this is the last time this will take place as the DVC will go into their merger with the SWSC bext season.

Before their Interstate 8 affiliation I believe Wilmington belonged to the Northeast Conference that had something as you were talking about.. A week 10 championship game between the winners of the two divisions?

I think Wilmington was in a division with Dwight, Marseilles, Minooka, and Seneca. The other group was. Lisle, Lemont, Plano Sandwich and Yorkville. It was only a few season this occured as many of the teams left to form the I-8 after Coal City began football One of those few seasons Wilmington had a team that finished 10-0 but there were no state playoffs at the time. I believe Lodi Vercelli was the QB on that team?

This is kind of weird to me in a 6 team conference, where they have each played one another previously. I always thought this would be cool if you could somehow do this with two smaller conferences and have the champions play each other, then the 2nd place teams, and so forth. Not sure if logistically it is worth it though.

 

[olderbytheminute]

That's exactly how it's scheduled. The games are considered non conference games and have no impact on the Conference itself as DVC head to head play concluded Friday.

It nakes scheduling easier. not a lot of teams are going to be available in week 9 for 6 different schools and the same for week 4 when most schools are into their conference play. .For all practical or impractical purposes depending on which way you look at it, this is the last time this will take place as the DVC will go into their merger with the SWSC bext season.

Before their Interstate 8 affiliation I believe Wilmington belonged to the Northeast Conference that had something as you were talking about.. A week 10 championship game between the winners of the two divisions?

I think Wilmington was in a division with Dwight, Marseilles, Minooka, and Seneca. The other group was. Lisle, Lemont, Plano Sandwich and Yorkville. It was only a few season this occured as many of the teams left to form the I-8 after Coal City began football One of those few seasons Wilmington had a team that finished 10-0 but there were no state playoffs at the time. I believe Lodi Vercelli was the QB on that team?

You have a legit point and I agree with you.
Problem is finding two 6-team leagues near each other that are comparable in terms of competition.
Up north, there is the 6-team Central Suburban South and 6-team Central Suburban North.
The leagues are divided based generally speaking, on enrollment (yes, there is 1 exception).
But those two leagues couldn't play week 9 because the South powerhouses would dominate the North's best.
It looks like, in theory, the Mid-Suburban East & West conferences as 6-team leagues could do it successfully.
And it also looks like, in theory, the Southwest Prairie East & West conferences as 6-team leagues could do it successfully.
But other than that, there is. no 6-team league anywhere remotedly lose to the DuPage Valley in terms of driving time and enrollment that could match up with the DVC teams right now.