Do Naz and Provi get in at 4-5?
- Thread starter Secondo1
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If there are 256 5-4 teams, no 4-5 team gets in. If there are 255 5-4 teams, the 4-5 team with the most playoff points becomes the 256th qualifier. If 254 teams go 5-4…and on and on. Once the 256 qualifiers are determined, then they are split into the 8 enrollment designated classes. So no matter if you’re considered 1A thru 8A during the season, your final class is determined after all the qualifiers are determined
I can't remember, but as the number of overall teams playing 11 man football continues to (slowly) shrink, it stands to reason that there will be fewer teams reaching the 5 win mark.
Some of the upsets last night will likely change this projection.
IF 5 loss teams get in, Provi and then Naz should be at or near the top of the list if needed. Through week 7 Provi currently has 44 playoff points and Naz has 42. Of the 4 loss teams, this looks like the highest two in the state at a quick glance.
Both of them could certainly win week 9 and make it a moot point.
Listening to Soucie last night and with how the games played out, he adjusted his prediction to potentially 2 or 3 teams making it at 4-5. Will need to see what happens today and next week but it will be close. Should any 4-5 teams get in Naz and Provi would be at the top of the list based on points.
Per IHSA this morning, there are currently 203 five win teams. Start count how many 4 win teams are favored this week....then start debating
Thx. So 43 spots left. Amd if my hungover eyes work right, i see 74 4 win teams as of now too.
Gotta remember there's games today too. Need to wait until tomorrow to see how many actual 5 win teams there are going into next week.
Im already running numbers lol. Will post predictions later today/tonite.
Agreed from initial thoughts. Might be a a few teams with 5 wins that don’t make it. Will report back when i get a chance to look further.
All.... Correct 213. I have a headache as well. Here is what I came up with. 213 with five or more. 62 teams at 4 and 4. I looked at all of them and am not an expert on every dam# football team in Illinois. (lol) I came up with 34 getting five wins. That is 247. There are 10 schools playing today that are 4-3. Most are CPL and for me very tricky to project. Records can be misleading. Still after week nine I think 9 out of 10 get five. I laughed when I ran the total 256.
Now of course one assumes most of those 62 should go 50-50. And if it goes much worse then the 4 and 5's come into play.
Some changes likely tomorrow after todays games but class enrollment numbers have shifted again. 5A that I follow now has Morris as the smallest team in 5A and Providence as the smallest in 6A.... Ratsy
Now of course one assumes most of those 62 should go 50-50. And if it goes much worse then the 4 and 5's come into play.
Some changes likely tomorrow after todays games but class enrollment numbers have shifted again. 5A that I follow now has Morris as the smallest team in 5A and Providence as the smallest in 6A.... Ratsy
Even if 3 or 4 4-5 teams get in, the cutoff will probably be 52 playoff points. Prove would have a chance, much tougher for Naz.
Looking at MJ 4-5 playoff points projections, here would be the leaders.
Naz 51
Provi 53
Rice 54
Plainfield North 50
Fremd 53
GBS 51
Bolingbrook 51
A few big games which will impact alot
Fremd vs. Hoffman Estates
HF vs. Lockport
Waubonsie's DVC Playoff game
Plainfield Central vs. Joliet West
Fenwick vs. IC
Looking at MJ 4-5 playoff points projections, here would be the leaders.
Naz 51
Provi 53
Rice 54
Plainfield North 50
Fremd 53
GBS 51
Bolingbrook 51
A few big games which will impact alot
Fremd vs. Hoffman Estates
HF vs. Lockport
Waubonsie's DVC Playoff game
Plainfield Central vs. Joliet West
Fenwick vs. IC
Looking further at numbers and records, I think I was wrong earlier and see a good possibility of some 4 win teams making it in.
213 teams with 5 wins. 4 games between 4-4 teams = 217 teams with 5 wins.
Likely to get win: 5 more teams
8A Lane Tech
7A WWS
Kenwood
Rockford Auburn
6A Simeon
217 + 5 = 222.
Record wise, 7 more teams are favored in higher classes.
7a: Argo
6A Crystal Lake Central
Danville
Deerfield
CPS Senn
5A Tinley Park
Marion
222 + 7 = 229.
Lower level, 16 teams favored:
4A Effingham
St. Viator
Phillips
Ag Science
Taylorville
King
Noble Gobler
Fairfield
Oregon
Deer creek
Southwestern
Hamilton County
Illini West
Wesclin
Stockton
Nokimis
229 + 16 = 245, but that’s with no upsets in a lot of games.
Coin flips 12 games:
8A Plainfield North
7A West Chicago
Brother Rice
Moline
6A Providence Catholic
4A Depaul
Plano
Waterloo
3A Monmouth Roseville
CPS Hansbury
Beardstown
Dupo
Say 50% rate = 6 teams+ 245 = 251 teams.
A 75% win rate = 9 + 245 = 254 teams.
100% = 257 and would mean one 5-win team would not make it.
My guess is teams fighting for playoffs take a couple game advantage so my gut tells me 2 or 3 teams with 4 wins gets into the playoffs.
213 teams with 5 wins. 4 games between 4-4 teams = 217 teams with 5 wins.
Likely to get win: 5 more teams
8A Lane Tech
7A WWS
Kenwood
Rockford Auburn
6A Simeon
217 + 5 = 222.
Record wise, 7 more teams are favored in higher classes.
7a: Argo
6A Crystal Lake Central
Danville
Deerfield
CPS Senn
5A Tinley Park
Marion
222 + 7 = 229.
Lower level, 16 teams favored:
4A Effingham
St. Viator
Phillips
Ag Science
Taylorville
King
Noble Gobler
Fairfield
Oregon
Deer creek
Southwestern
Hamilton County
Illini West
Wesclin
Stockton
Nokimis
229 + 16 = 245, but that’s with no upsets in a lot of games.
Coin flips 12 games:
8A Plainfield North
7A West Chicago
Brother Rice
Moline
6A Providence Catholic
4A Depaul
Plano
Waterloo
3A Monmouth Roseville
CPS Hansbury
Beardstown
Dupo
Say 50% rate = 6 teams+ 245 = 251 teams.
A 75% win rate = 9 + 245 = 254 teams.
100% = 257 and would mean one 5-win team would not make it.
My guess is teams fighting for playoffs take a couple game advantage so my gut tells me 2 or 3 teams with 4 wins gets into the playoffs.
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Sure. But they weren’t accounted for above in stl705’s post as far as I can see.
All.... The latest revised Sunday Playoff Outlook up after the Saturday games. One small change which should make Celtic fans happy. From smallest team in 6A Saturday morning to largest team in 5A.
No change for Morris after moving from up from 4A last week into 5A. They remain the smallest school in that class.
I imagine staffs and fans from both schools will be watching closely overall team results in the upcoming weekend what class they land in. Ratsy
No change for Morris after moving from up from 4A last week into 5A. They remain the smallest school in that class.
I imagine staffs and fans from both schools will be watching closely overall team results in the upcoming weekend what class they land in. Ratsy
Interesting, you'd think with one team moving in one would have to move out. Per usual for Morris, it will come down to seeding night.
All.... Latest on 4-5 teams getting in with the new numbers.
There are now 220 teams with 5 or more wins. This weekend 72 schools at 4-4. Although Waubonsie can't be happy. Ihsa is showing they don't have a week nine game. I can't believe that?
14 schools at 4 and 4 play each other. 220 plus 7 = 227. So we now have 58 remaining. (57) 27 seven more spots. That is razor thin for a 4-5 to get in. Ratsy
There are now 220 teams with 5 or more wins. This weekend 72 schools at 4-4. Although Waubonsie can't be happy. Ihsa is showing they don't have a week nine game. I can't believe that?
14 schools at 4 and 4 play each other. 220 plus 7 = 227. So we now have 58 remaining. (57) 27 seven more spots. That is razor thin for a 4-5 to get in. Ratsy
Not sure what PC would be hoping for as an easier path. In addition to being on the 5/6 bubble, they could also be on the north/south bubble depending on the class they wind up in.
I would assume 6A south is the class you want to avoid with ESL. 6A north seems to be lacking that major power player.
5A north would be the worst meat grinder with the potential of SF, PR, Sycamore, etc. And then Morris and JC potentially being north or south. 5A south is probably the most desired outcome for PC, but it becomes a steeper hill to climb if Morris or JC wind up there as well.
I think the season would be a success for PC if they make the playoffs at all. I believe a SF-PC matchup would end much different than last year's semifinal with this year's version of teams.
28
29
27
28
27
28
Total is 220
That leaves 36 spots for 4-4 teams to get to 5 wins
If I have to guess, I say no 4-5 teams will qualify.
I just kind of think that the 4-4 teams have more to motivate them than most of the opponents.
I just kind of think that the 4-4 teams have more to motivate them than most of the opponents.
There are 36 spots left if you say all 5 win teams are automatically in. There are 7 games of 4 win vs 4 win teams next week, so that drops down to just 29 spots.
There are 58 teams left at 4 wins after that. 28/58 schools face teams with three or less wins. I think the vast majority of those will win, especially the 17 of them that face opponents at 2 or fewer wins.
I also expect some 4 win teams to take down 5+ win teams. 8 of the 4 win teams play 5-3 teams and Massey projects 3/8 to win. There’s also at least one possible 4-5 conference champion that could take another spot.
My prediction: this is going to come down to Saturday afternoon and team 256 will be within three spots of the top 4-5 team. On which side that will be, I can’t tell.
There are 58 teams left at 4 wins after that. 28/58 schools face teams with three or less wins. I think the vast majority of those will win, especially the 17 of them that face opponents at 2 or fewer wins.
I also expect some 4 win teams to take down 5+ win teams. 8 of the 4 win teams play 5-3 teams and Massey projects 3/8 to win. There’s also at least one possible 4-5 conference champion that could take another spot.
My prediction: this is going to come down to Saturday afternoon and team 256 will be within three spots of the top 4-5 team. On which side that will be, I can’t tell.
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Of the teams that may end 4-5, how many playoff points do they stand to pick up in week #9 (who among their previous opponents should win week #9)?
Guess prognosticating but I see Naz picking up 6 more points and Provi picking up 3.
Guess prognosticating but I see Naz picking up 6 more points and Provi picking up 3.
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I cannot find a 4-win team that can win a conference and get a playoff spot.
Marian Catholic could win its league at 4-5 overall but can’t get in because it’s not a 6-team or more league.
I can’t find any other league where 4-5 gets on as a champion.
Please name league and team as I am missing it.
The Southwest Prairie East could be won by 3-5 Plainfield East from what I see. They are 3-1 in conference and should move to 4-1 with a win over Romeoville. They also need 3-1 Plainfield Central to defeat 4-0 Joliet West to force a three-way tie in conference.
Plainfield East defeated Central earlier in the season but lost to Joliet West, so this would come down to point allowed against each other. In that scenario, East has pretty good odds of taking the bid at 4-5.
This has happened a few times in the past. Would it be possible for a 3-6 team to win their conference and get in? I'm sure there is a way that it is mathematically possible, right?
Sure. A six-team league could have a three-way tie for first place with 3-2 records. There, a 3-6 team would just need to win a tie-breaker over the other two.
So with 5 wins Rita is in with 50 pts. With 4 wins BR has 49, PC 48 and Naz 48. Is this year seem a little weird?. In the past how many 4-5 teams have gotten in.? Has a 4-5 ever won a playoff game? Anyone know what the lowest playoff point total for a 5 win team to get in.
