D1 scholarship offers vs PY

[King MJ]

Feels like lots of top athletes are singing PWO offers instead of NILs compared to previous years.

Obviously transfer portal is a big driver. Does anyone have stats on the change in local high school scholarship offers vs prior years? I know it is tough to gauge based on social media since lots of schools don't differentiate between scholarship offers and PWO offers.

 

[EdgyTim]

Feels like lots of top athletes are singing PWO offers instead of NILs compared to previous years.

Obviously transfer portal is a big driver. Does anyone have stats on the change in local high school scholarship offers vs prior years? I know it is tough to gauge based on social media since lots of schools don't differentiate between scholarship offers and PWO offers.

EdgyTim - Breakdown: Class of 2023 Signing Day

So how does the State of Illinois Class of 2023 rank? My Early Signing Day Preview is here.

edgytim.rivals.com

 

[mc140]

Considering the transfer portal, it would be smarter to go the smaller school route, do well, and move up.

 

[FballDaddy]

As a parent to a Junior and watching the current seniors efforts, it's definitely a different world then when my other son's class went through pre-pandemic. Obviously top flight recruits will always get the love, but that next tier of kids definitely feels like they are waiting in line behind transfers getting placed and then filling in the gaps.

It kinda feels like pro baseball now. Some kids can make the leap to the majors (Power 5 schools), but alot of kids who might have been solid FBS kids are looking for places to go now and set up to transfer up in a year or two. Combine that with kids moving down out of FBS because they couldn't cut it or want more playing time (or down from FCS to D2, etc), it's a tough run for some of these HS kids.

Even seeing transfer kids at camps with high school kids now too. Watching the 16-17 yo kid competing vs. a 20 yo kid with college experience is always a good way to sort them out.

 

[mc140]

At some point the covid bump will be gone. Probably another couple of years before things thin out.

 

[FballDaddy]

At some point the covid bump will be gone. Probably another couple of years before things thin out.

@mc140 that definitely has some impact, but the portal is so much more active than before that it will never go back to how it was before.

 

[mc140]

@mc140 that definitely has some impact, but the portal is so much more active than before that it will never go back to how it was before.

It's math though. If everyone is taking less and less frosh into their programs, at some point there will be less and less juniors and seniors.

 

[isubluedevil]

It's math though. If everyone is taking less and less frosh into their programs, at some point there will be less and less juniors and seniors.

Not really. More juniors and seniors just replace the outgoing seniors. Pretty Simple. Always have transfers available in the portal.

 

[mc140]

Not really. More juniors and seniors just replace the outgoing seniors. Pretty Simple. Always have transfers available in the portal.

To become a Junior you have to start somewhere as a frosh. If everyone is signing less Frosh, eventually there will be less Juniors avaialble to grab in the portal. It has to even out at some point. Still might be two or three years away though.

 

[King MJ]

To become a Junior you have to start somewhere as a frosh. If everyone is signing less Frosh, eventually there will be less Juniors avaialble to grab in the portal. It has to even out at some point. Still might be two or three years away though.

Preferred walk ons. Remember total college football freshman number aren't down that much. Just the # of scholarships allocated to freshman.

Lots of schools, especially at FCS level trying to go to the 40/40/20 model used by Deion at Jackson State.

 

[mc140]

Preferred walk ons. Remember total college football freshman number aren't down that much. Just the # of scholarships allocated to freshman.

Lots of schools, especially at FCS level trying to go to the 40/40/20 model used by Deion at Jackson State.

Preferred walkons do not last at a high percentage.

 

[King MJ]

Preferred walkons do not last at a high percentage.

They do much better in the last few years due to the transfer exodus at many programs

 

[stl705]

Preferred walk ons. Remember total college football freshman number aren't down that much. Just the # of scholarships allocated to freshman.

Lots of schools, especially at FCS level trying to go to the 40/40/20 model used by Deion at Jackson State.

What is the 40/40/20 model? I think it’ll be interesting to see what strategies end up paying off and for what schools.

Seems to me the best route for success is to get kids in the program young. Speaking generally, I think bringing in a heavy volume of transfers vs incoming freshman is flashy and sexy, but a short-term, desperate move in the long run. Think it can be used for sure, but idk about relied upon.

 

[mc140]

People seem to forget we are in the middle of a cycle where kids were given a free year. Four years from now schools will not be passing on high school kids for preferred walkons who are upperclassmen. The ones who panned out will have gotten scholarships, most of the rest will stop playing or drop down to a lower level in search of playing time.

 

[jha618]

People seem to forget we are in the middle of a cycle where kids were given a free year. Four years from now schools will not be passing on high school kids for preferred walkons who are upperclassmen. The ones who panned out will have gotten scholarships, most of the rest will stop playing or drop down to a lower level in search of playing time.

Many coaches, esp fbs, have said publicly why would i sign/recruit an unproven 17yo when i can go and sign a guy that has proven they can play at that level.

 

[mc140]

Many coaches, esp fbs, have said publicly why would i sign/recruit an unproven 17yo when i can go and sign a guy that has proven they can play at that level.

Which is fine when there is a glut of players like their is now and will be for a few more years.

 

[King MJ]

What is the 40/40/20 model? I think it’ll be interesting to see what strategies end up paying off and for what schools.

Seems to me the best route for success is to get kids in the program young. Speaking generally, I think bringing in a heavy volume of transfers vs incoming freshman is flashy and sexy, but a short-term, desperate move in the long run. Think it can be used for sure, but idk about relied upon.

40% recruited high school kids
40% undergrad transfers
20% grad transfer

Across a roster this equates to bringing in only 6-7 high school kids per year

 

[King MJ]

People seem to forget we are in the middle of a cycle where kids were given a free year. Four years from now schools will not be passing on high school kids for preferred walkons who are upperclassmen. The ones who panned out will have gotten scholarships, most of the rest will stop playing or drop down to a lower level in search of playing time.

Football will also have more grad transfers than other sports because so many kids are redshirted their freshman year. But to your point, the number of 6th (and 7th years) will go down dramatically starting in 2024.

 

[UlbKA91]

Did the extra COVID year also apply to JuCo sports? An EIU basketball player in the news recently was described as having played 3 seasons at a junior college before transferring to Charleston.

 

[King MJ]

Did the extra COVID year also apply to JuCo sports? An EIU basketball player in the news recently was described as having played 3 seasons at a junior college before transferring to Charleston.

yes

 

[missingwalter]

It’s crazy everywhere, D2 Davenport signed 55 kids this year.