Big Ten Growing again
- Thread starter ClownBaby
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Not a great time to be depending on longer, domestic trips on an airplane. These student-athletes and the contests in which they participate can not coexist with the delays/cancellations we are seeing in air travel.
This is a big time move for both USC/UCLA and the B10… all will prosper enormously from a financial standpoint. The rest of the PAC 12, and quite frankly the rest of CFB outside of B10 and SEC (and maybe ACC) has basically been relegated to being D1AA. Not to say they cant compete, they can… but the dollars will be coming in extremely fast and furious for TV/Streaming rights for these 2 new power conferences.
Makes me really wonder how long this has been in the works. Personally I think well placed people knew about this soon after Texas/OU to SEC news… maybe even before then. FOX just came out with their new CFB pregame called Big Noon and a lot of the games were B10 and USC games.
Makes me really wonder how long this has been in the works. Personally I think well placed people knew about this soon after Texas/OU to SEC news… maybe even before then. FOX just came out with their new CFB pregame called Big Noon and a lot of the games were B10 and USC games.
Notre dame gotta be feeling the pressure. Big ten likely to get to 20 and Washington, cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona, and their likely first choice of UNC are all on the table. If SEC eyes 20 and looks to Miami, FSU, and Clemson, then ND will have to hope big ten throws them a lifeline for one of their last four spots. Sharks appear to be circling the ACC.
Remnants of big 12 and pac 12 would likely join the leftovers of the ACC to form a clear middle tier of college football. Landscape is going to be very different in just a few years.
Really quite shocking. Think it’s fantastic for the Big 10.
Two initial thoughts:
1- have always wanted to see how a team from a warm climate would do playing against a Midwest team in November. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any big time programs ever coming up here after September. Look forward to seeing USC travel to OSU,Mich, etc… in the fall.
2-think it’s going to be a big blow to USC/UCLA’s baseball programs. They are going to have to play several games out this way in March/April/May that are going to be in the 40’s. Recruiting will take a hit. IE: Nebraska. Used to be a great baseball program and went down hill joining the Big 10. Or….they will absolutely dominate Big 10 baseball.
Two initial thoughts:
1- have always wanted to see how a team from a warm climate would do playing against a Midwest team in November. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any big time programs ever coming up here after September. Look forward to seeing USC travel to OSU,Mich, etc… in the fall.
2-think it’s going to be a big blow to USC/UCLA’s baseball programs. They are going to have to play several games out this way in March/April/May that are going to be in the 40’s. Recruiting will take a hit. IE: Nebraska. Used to be a great baseball program and went down hill joining the Big 10. Or….they will absolutely dominate Big 10 baseball.
Agree 100% this puts pressure on ND… they make better $$ as an independent but it’s possibly they get shut out of scheduling games against B10 and SEC… which in the end could be a major hit.
Imo, the big $$ for ND is and has always been on prestige, and part of that is rivalries with USC and MI. If Irish get told to join or no schedule, I think it makes a whole lotta sense to give up the golden goose to preserve it’s future as a big boy player and join. Same could even be said for Clemson to SEC, although different situation there.
From my understanding, ND’s deal with NBC is worth around 15 million per year. Every single big ten team shares their media rights deal evenly. So mighty OSU and northwestern, who has no fan base to speak of, each get somewhere in the range of 40 to 50 million per year.
ND’s media deal made them special two decades ago. Now, their independence is leaving them in the dust of the Big Ten and SEC’s ridiculous media deals.
the last 10 years their independence has been solely about prestige and tradition. Now that the finances are leaving them with only one half or even one third of what they could get in the Big Ten, they will have to really value their tradition to walk away from tens of millions each year.
my prediction is that the big ten goes after three schools next. Perhaps washington, North Carolina, and Virginia. Then they leave ND an opening for all of a few weeks to be their 20th member. If they don’t jump on it, it will be offered to Cal, Georgia Tech, or Arizona and they will be locked out. That would be some pressure right there.
I understand the revenue sharing but thought ND ended up benefiting financially being indy.. I guess i thought wrong then.
B10 could move anywhere up to 24 teams i think. You mention Wash, Cal, UVA, UNC, GT, AZ… can add in Oregon, Pitt, Boston College, Duke and Stanford into the mix of options (besides ND of course). Right now I think all these teams would jump to join B10 instantly… just a matter of who B10 wants if any more.
B10 could move anywhere up to 24 teams i think. You mention Wash, Cal, UVA, UNC, GT, AZ… can add in Oregon, Pitt, Boston College, Duke and Stanford into the mix of options (besides ND of course). Right now I think all these teams would jump to join B10 instantly… just a matter of who B10 wants if any more.
Greed knows no boundaries. It is (as a synonym for covetousness) one of the seven deadly sins. It is sad to see it so shamelessly displayed for young men to see.
Greed definitely plays a part but so does financing all those non-revenue sports. Most of those sports would be gone if not for the tv money for football .
Interesting..... Notre Dame is not under pressure. Look at thier 2023 & 2024 classes ranked #1. I understand people do not like them but they have a unique model (Prestige of the school, have a 5 Billion dollar endowment, 10,000 students (not a large school), Tremendous education, brand is recognized globally, large professional network, ability to play in NFL/professionally, high gradation rate, large NLI Deals for athletes, play on national TV every game + play in front of 80,000 fans every home game) that is hard to beat. What parent would not honestly think about sending thier kid there. The SEC & BIG 10 want ND on thier schedule. ND plays USC every year already. Who cares about UCLA. This is a win for ND. They do not neee to join either conference !!!!
SC almost certain to drop the ND game in the future. No need to add another Midwest travel date.
Pressure isn’t on them because they aren’t successful. Pressure is on them because their ship could be sinking very soon. If SEC poaches Clemson, FSU, Miami, and VT and Big Ten goes after UVA and UNC, that leaves the ACC looking like the remainder of the Pac 12 or Big 12 and clearly no longer a power 5 entity. Plus, that would make ND the 7th to leave if they left. If 7 schools leave ACC it nullifies their grant of rights deal, thus erasing any exit penalty. if 6-7 schools exit the ACC, it is not a matter of IF notre dame leaves. It is a matter of whether the SEC or Big Ten happens to be the one to throw them a lifeline. At that point, the remains of the ACC would be the equivalent of the Mountain West and both superconferences would be offering 50 to 100 million dollars a year in media revenue sharing.
Between all that pressure and the fact that their only recurring games now are SC, Stanford, and Navy means that SC may bail and Stanford May end up a have not as well and their 5 game ACC guarantee could become mid major level means that they face a relevance issue. And the final nail in the coffin is that this all appears to be heading to a new world order of a 20-24 team big ten and 20-24 team sec. In that case, it is inevitable that those conferences break from the NCAA to form their own football and even basketball postseason where they don’t have to share any money with the smaller programs. That is where the real money is and why the 40 to 48 programs who get invited stand to make over 100 million a year in media rights and those not included will be left with well under 10 million a year. Again, this changing landscape appears to be setting up 40 plus programs in their own college football playoff and mens basketball tournament. ND knows this and doesn’t want to be the big fish in the very small remaining pond. They will have no choice but to accept an overture from SEC or Big Ten really. The shift of the next few years isn’t going to be realignment. It is a seismic shift in the landscape coming up and ND wants to play for national championships. The remains of the ACC, Pac 12, Big 12, and any independents simply won’t be invited. ND knows this.
it is why Oregon and Washington are seeking Big Ten approval. They know their very existence as major players with true national title aspirations is on the line. It is also why the Big Ten is going to slow play them. They would rather rip the ACC apart, tear up their grant of rights, and leave ND with no legitimate landing spot so they will have no choice other than SEC or Big Ten. That’s the game right now. It is brutal and most colleges are going to despise the final outcome, but this is the new order that is coming. 40-48 haves and a bunch of Stanford, Boston College, UConn, and Oklahoma state fans who are angry at being made into a massive MAC with the ability to only compete for an NIT equivalent title in any major sport. I don’t like it either, but it’s where we are. ND’s previous special status as an independent who could still be invited to a national title opportunity will no longer be an actual status. This is different than the last 20-30 years of realignment. This is the end of the NCAA and beginning of the Big Ten/SEC owning the college sports world and being unwilling to share with any other party. ND knows this.
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ND is absolutely under pressure. They will still have the academic prestige, brand recognition, etc, but the model of college football as a whole is changing whether ND wants it to or not. Non-conference scheduling will change for schools. The playoff will be changing. Many CFB writers I follow anticipate an AFC vs. NFC type model. How would ND fit into that? If ND wants to be a title contender and ultimately make the most money they can then they will need to join one of the mega conferences that we will see. The '23 and '24 class aren't even going to be affected. Nothing too major will happen until '26 when the playoff tv deal expires.
True. The thing is, these are not-for-profit entities. They should have their tax-exempt status revoked.
[That is a statement of sentiment. I readily acknowledge I am no expert on tax law and therefore do not know to what degree revocation is feasible.]
Not even close to accurate. Michigan’s womens basketball cost 4.5 million to operate. Without football sports like wrestling, track, golf, tennis, volleyball etc… would go away.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...artment-finances-2020-fiscal-year/4314010001/
You were right. Just another bargaining chip for them with NBC. Why share with 15 others when can get the whole enchilada?
I dont know anything about the taxes. But the only solution is to recognize that in the long run more than 2 (then inevitably 1) conferences is best for the sport as a whole. As long as $ is the decider it ain't gonna be good.
No. Even if they could double their current contract, they would still be tens of millions behind what Vanderbilt and Northwestern get each year.
independence is no longer an option for them. Especially when the national title will only go through one of two 20 plus team leagues and all the mid major leagues are only invited to their own NIT style tournament. The SEC and Big Ten aren’t going to share with others anymore so you get one of the coveted 40 to 48 spots or you wind up like Kansas State.
So you take Michigan, which was third in the country in spending. They spent 43.3 million on 25 sports not counting football and boys/girls basketball. A significant chunk of that 43.3 million is scholarship money. Which is not nearly the cost it appears to be. Lets take the Men's track team. They have 12.6 scholarships to spread out over 44 current athletes on the the team. The rest are paying to attend.
Either way, take the increase in football rights fees over the past 30 years and compare to the cost increase in running a tennis team. I dont think the 50 million each school gets form the Big ten Network has much being spent on tennis.
Agree you can’t compare other sports to football. Face it football is the money maker. Basketball ball is the next sport then it’s more about trying to fund the other sports.
Exactly right. Certain ND fans keep clinging to their NBC deal, how they don't have to share like it's 20 years ago... their NBC deal is peanuts now, it's grossly inadequate.
I believe the financial benefit of ND being Independent isn’t driven by their TV deal. I’m not an expert on the matter, but doesn’t ND get to keep 100% of its bowl game rake vs sharing with its conference. I would imagine there are many other financial benefits not seen as well.
Aside from current and/future financial benefits, staying Independent allows ND to make their own decisions 100% of the time. If they join the B10, I think their pull will be as strong as anyones, but ultimately ND won’t be making decisions, the conference will. What cost is the guarantee to make your own decisions worth?
With all that said, I do see a strong argument to join and I think they will. As a ND fan, I hope they do join. The ability to lock in games against USC, MI, MSU, OSU, Iowa, and WI is just too strong, plus potentially whoever else B10 brings on board.
Aside from current and/future financial benefits, staying Independent allows ND to make their own decisions 100% of the time. If they join the B10, I think their pull will be as strong as anyones, but ultimately ND won’t be making decisions, the conference will. What cost is the guarantee to make your own decisions worth?
With all that said, I do see a strong argument to join and I think they will. As a ND fan, I hope they do join. The ability to lock in games against USC, MI, MSU, OSU, Iowa, and WI is just too strong, plus potentially whoever else B10 brings on board.
The get to keep 100% of their bowl payout, but thats peanuts compared to the TV deal difference.. Illinois can go 0-12 and get 1/14 of their Bowl pool money, which is $4.7M and ND gets $3.2M plus $4M for the Fiesta Bowl... So ND received $7.2M and Illinois $4.7M.... but Illinois will be getting over $100M in TV revenue while ND might be getting $40M..
The financial model of independence got passed by 15 years ago and the gap is so large now it isn’t viable.
but the reason they will join sec or big ten isn’t just financial, even though that alone is enough to force it.
the reason they have no real choice is because the ACC will implode when the sec raids 4 teams and the big ten takes a few. When both go to 20-24, they are not going to have any interest in splitting college football playoff money or mens basketball tourney money with other leagues. The remains of the ACC, big 12, pac 12 , and any independents would be relegated to a postseason with the mountain west, MAC, etc. notre dame will either get one of the 40 to 48 spots in the 2 big leagues or they will be essentially a division 1b team with no postseason (and likely even regular season) chances to compete against the sec or big ten. The NCAA will be left behind by the big two leagues within five years. ND knows they have no options other than joining the big ten or sec. And they would be such a bad cultural fit with the sec that they will have to jump when the big ten gives them a one week window to accept their offer.
But I wouldn't be surprised if ND took an SEC offer if among the other 7 adds was UVA, UNC, Duke and MiamiFL. Vandy and UTx will have to do for academics and prestige. Though he bemoaned his former employer's limitations, Brian Kelly could be a sort of negotiator/advocate for ND- remember the 2 Michies didn't really consider him for their vacancies despite success at CMU (he went to Cincy after Dantonio went to MSU; he could have went to UM instead of Hoke), so he'd have motivation.
Agreed. There are 2 boats that will still be floating as major conferences in a few years. ND can’t wait for the one they want. If either of the two offer the invite, they take the first one to come.
SEC absolutely could offer Clemson, FSU, ND, and either Miami or UNC or Duke or UVA or GT or VT.
I think it’s all about both conferences waiting for both to make offers because all these ACC schools need the cover of 7 total schools leaving to save them from their grant of rights.
If the SEC poaches 4 and the big ten takes 3 plus Washington or Arizona or Colorado, then all 7 lucky ACC schools with an invite will be able to leave knowing there is no ACC to pay a penalty to .
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And they call ND the smart school. LMAO. Greedy and Smug. ND is definitely both I hope they end up in the MAC.conference. 🤣
I’ve been thinking about this. Two big conferences. 20 or 24 teams per league. Each with 4 total divisions of 5 or 6 teams. Each conference takes the division winner and runner up for a total of 8 teams per conference and 16 teams total. This is the new college football playoff. SEC championship game is the sugar bowl. Big ten title game is the rose bowl. Winner of sugar bowl/sec plays winner of rose bowl/big ten in the national championship game.
5 years down the road I think something like that is a very probable reality.
You ever stop to ask yourself why everyone hates ND but want them - that is very unique? Whether you like them are not .... they will not be pressured to join today's BIG 10 or SEC. Before that it was the Power 5 Conference. They do not need the money .... period .... for ND it is more than money 💰. There plenty articles that show the pluses or how ND can remain independent. They have a path way for both .... most schools do not. ND operate like big $ schools but function like a small high end academic school like stanford, northwestern, vanderbilt. The kids/athletes get the best of all worlds without being in sports crazed football dominate school. Which I prefer. It is more than football folks. Eitherway there will always be haters because they control thier own fate. Stay tuned !
They sure seem like the smartest school out by waiting out all the other dominos to fall they are the only remaining heavy weight and can dictate terms to the Big Ten if they want to join. The SEC will protect ND make sure the have access playoff as an independent if they choose that route. No team in the last 10 years of realignment has had a better hand then ND does right now.
Why would the SEC protect ND’s access to a playoff? And then have to give them a cut? Absolutely not happening.
ND is either joining the Big Ten or SEC or they will almost certainly be denied access to the future Big Ten/SEC college football playoff.
they can share with Washington state, Kansas state, Boston college, and the rest of division 1b in the football NIT.
ND is in a good spot to choose between the SEC and Big Ten.joining a collapsing ACC or remaining independent and getting left out of future playoff opportunities are not options.
I was thinking about this the other day and why would UNC for example join the SEC when the ACC is the premier basketball conference?
1) the fact that the ACC will cease to exist as a major conference in 5 years. Duke stands to get screwed In this new era along with basketball powers like Kansas and UConn. UNC doesn’t want to be trapped like they will be.
2) the promise of not just double or triple their current media rights deal, but likely multiples of 5 and 10 times of what they are getting now.
3) those projecting out 5 years and more see the NCAA likely dying out or allowing the big ten and SEC to splinter off. Duke, UConn, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Kansas, etc will likely have their own tournament with the remains of the PAC 12, Big 12, ACC, and mid majors. The Big Ten and SEC will likely have their own tournament and keep all the revenue for themselves. In a worst case scenario for the 2 super conferences, the two tournaments would be equally popular. And the big ten and sec tourney would only be split 40-48 ways. The second tournament would be split 300 ways.
again, this is not realignment. This is a new world order where the NCAA goes away or is cast aside even more than now. It is an existential problem for everyone who is not one of the lucky 40-48 to get an invitation.
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