Week 8 results were all pretty straightforward, so this week's thread will be more focused on where Southern Illinois teams stand heading into Selection Saturday and what to watch for in week 9.
Southwestern
Edwardsville (7-1): The Tigers fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with a 27-15 setback to East St. Louis. That score felt pretty par for the course for Edwardsville as a strong 7A/8A contender that is on a slightly lower tier than the elite teams. They will again be tested in a big way this week with a Friday night trip to Missouri against De Smet (7-0). Not only are the Spartans undefeated against a strong schedule but they also haven't played a game since week 7, so they will be better rested. De Smet certainly seems like a favorite here. With 38 playoff points at the moment, Edwardsville should still open at home if they finish 8-1 or 7-2. The bigger question is if they will fall into 7A or 8A. They've been towing the line most of the year but it seems like 8A is more likely at the moment.
East St. Louis (7-2): Due to a forfeit victory this week (their scheduled opponent backed out too late to replace), East St. Louis has already finished their regular season. As has been the case for the last several years, the Flyers will be playing up to Class 6A. With 37 playoff points to their name, they should open at home. Apologies in advance to the team that draws a mid-range seed Flyer team off an extra week of rest.
Belleville East (6-2): After clinching third place in conference with a 37-0 of cross-town rival Belleville West, the Lancers locked down a playoff spot last week. This week, they should dominate again against 0-8 Granite City. They should certainly find themselves in 8A and they should end with 40 playoff points for a week 10 home game. Especially with their opponent facing a long drive south, I can see the Lancers taking down several of 8A's lower seeds.
O'Fallon (4-4): With 39 playoff points, the Panthers do not have a realistic path to qualifying at 4-5. So what stands in the way of their fifth win? A visit to a 4-4 Cahokia squad that has two forfeit losses on their record. It's always tricky to predict what will happen when two teams have their backs against the wall, but at the end of the day this is 7A vs 4A and O'Fallon should be expected to win. If the Panthers are upset, it will likely come in a low-scoring affair like 15-14 that plays to the Comanches defensive strength. If they see week 10, O'Fallon has yet to defeat an Illinois team with a winning record and I would not count on them taking down a top 10 7A team on the road.
Mississippi Valley
Highland (7-1): The Bulldogs will face another canine mascot this week with a trip up to 1-7 St. Teresa. Highland should be highly successful in their trip to Decatur for what would be their seventh consecutive victory to lock down a home playoff game. Their last loss came week 2 when they took the long bus ride up to Mahomet-Seymour (7-1). In the past, Highland has been near the 4A/5A cutoff line but they seem pretty set to go 5A this time around. That southern bracket does seem somewhat open with SHG being somewhat down and Morris being on the brink of 4A being among the headlines. While they don't scream state finalist, Highland may be in the mix to win multiple games with the right draw.
Triad (5-3): The MVC's second place finisher has been hard to pin down at times but all signs are pointing to them being one of the last 256 teams standing. They can seal the deal this Friday at Collinsville (5-3), which would be an upset of sorts. Of course, a potential loss makes for much more interesting analysis. They currently have 31 playoff points and will likely get 5 more, putting them comfortably into the postseason while the question of 4 win playoff teams is still being discussed. Triad will need some luck with their draw to win a postseason game, especially at 5-4.
Waterloo (4-4): After week 5, Waterloo seemed dead in the water. Their 1-4 record, featuring three consecutive losses, was unimpressive and their lone victory came 14-0 over 0-5 Columbia. All of that now seems like a distant memory as the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight, including a 42-13 beatdown of Mascoutah last Friday. Waterloo's late season rally now comes down to what they can do against Freeburg (5-3). They share two common opponents with the Midgets in Jerseyville and Columbia. Both defeated Columbia by exactly 14 but Waterloo won 21-12 over Jersey and Freeburg lost 27-21. Especially considering the fact that the Bulldogs must win this one, their chance of victory is best put around 75%. They may not be a huge factor in Class 4A but the shift in the field they would cause might be.
South Seven
Carbondale (6-2): The S7 could have as many as 4 playoff teams when the weekend is over but Carbondale is the only team that can be locked in at the moment. Credit that largely to their conference champion campaign that saw them amass a 4-0 mark against league foes. Week 9 still has stakes for them, however. As is the case with most 6 win teams, they will be looking to increase their odds of a home playoff game. The Terriers have low odds of earning that at 6-3 since they only have 31 points. Momentum is another factor in the balance when they host Mascoutah (2-5) on Friday. Going back to week three, Carbondale has not lost and losing here would really take the wind out of their sails. Assuming they can avoid some of the blue bloods hanging around the middle of Class 5A South, they should win at least one postseason contest.
Mt. Vernon (5-3): The Rams have been a tough nut to crack this year. One of many stats pointing to that is their 2-0 record when allowing 41 points, drawing back to last week's 70-41 Centralia win and their season opening 55-41 win over Waterloo. That being said, they should confidently be picked to protect their homefield over Alton (1-7) Friday evening. With just 29 playoff points, they will still find themselves as a pretty low seed in 5A. Mt. Vernon is not the style of team I'd want to draw as a top team however as they will hit you with some old school ground and pound, combined with a coach not afraid to be aggressive and always seeming to have some special teams trickery up his sleeves. Their postseason will be very matchup dependent.
Marion (4-4): Once 4-0, the Wildcats have really had a tough go as of late and most of that draws back to injuries. They seemed to find themselves again last week when leading Carbondale 26-24 in the fourth quarter before losing 32-26. Marion should finally become playoff eligible Friday night with a long trip up to 1-7 Mattoon. Mattoon has not won since week two and that victory came over 0-8 Olney. Their biggest area of concern this weekend should be how other 4-4 teams fare because with 28 playoff points, it is conceivable that Marion could still miss at 5-4.
Cahokia(4-4): As mentioned above, their fate comes down to what they can do against fellow 4-4 O'Fallon. They likely will lose that play-in game, which would be just their third on-field loss this year after taking two forfeits earlier. If they pull off the upset, don't count them out against whatever top seed draws them in 4A.
Other Notables:
Althoff (7-1): My information against their week 9 opponent, Durand, is pretty minimal but the projections put the Crusaders as a big underdog. Win or lose, Althoff should roll into the postseason as a top seed and do some damage. Not sure if it is realistic, but keep an eye on if they get bumped up from 1A to 2A. They should fare well in either but 1A seems to have less depth.
Collinsville (5-3): The Kahoks host Troy Triad (5-3) this week and should probably win. With their tally of 39 points, that may open the door to a home playoff game? Even then, they would need a very favorable draw to win their second ever playoff game after ending a 100+ year drought last year. They've played just two 7A/8A teams this year, resulting in a 24-21 loss to Belleville East (6-2) and a 54-0 win over winless Granite City.
Southwestern
Edwardsville (7-1): The Tigers fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with a 27-15 setback to East St. Louis. That score felt pretty par for the course for Edwardsville as a strong 7A/8A contender that is on a slightly lower tier than the elite teams. They will again be tested in a big way this week with a Friday night trip to Missouri against De Smet (7-0). Not only are the Spartans undefeated against a strong schedule but they also haven't played a game since week 7, so they will be better rested. De Smet certainly seems like a favorite here. With 38 playoff points at the moment, Edwardsville should still open at home if they finish 8-1 or 7-2. The bigger question is if they will fall into 7A or 8A. They've been towing the line most of the year but it seems like 8A is more likely at the moment.
East St. Louis (7-2): Due to a forfeit victory this week (their scheduled opponent backed out too late to replace), East St. Louis has already finished their regular season. As has been the case for the last several years, the Flyers will be playing up to Class 6A. With 37 playoff points to their name, they should open at home. Apologies in advance to the team that draws a mid-range seed Flyer team off an extra week of rest.
Belleville East (6-2): After clinching third place in conference with a 37-0 of cross-town rival Belleville West, the Lancers locked down a playoff spot last week. This week, they should dominate again against 0-8 Granite City. They should certainly find themselves in 8A and they should end with 40 playoff points for a week 10 home game. Especially with their opponent facing a long drive south, I can see the Lancers taking down several of 8A's lower seeds.
O'Fallon (4-4): With 39 playoff points, the Panthers do not have a realistic path to qualifying at 4-5. So what stands in the way of their fifth win? A visit to a 4-4 Cahokia squad that has two forfeit losses on their record. It's always tricky to predict what will happen when two teams have their backs against the wall, but at the end of the day this is 7A vs 4A and O'Fallon should be expected to win. If the Panthers are upset, it will likely come in a low-scoring affair like 15-14 that plays to the Comanches defensive strength. If they see week 10, O'Fallon has yet to defeat an Illinois team with a winning record and I would not count on them taking down a top 10 7A team on the road.
Mississippi Valley
Highland (7-1): The Bulldogs will face another canine mascot this week with a trip up to 1-7 St. Teresa. Highland should be highly successful in their trip to Decatur for what would be their seventh consecutive victory to lock down a home playoff game. Their last loss came week 2 when they took the long bus ride up to Mahomet-Seymour (7-1). In the past, Highland has been near the 4A/5A cutoff line but they seem pretty set to go 5A this time around. That southern bracket does seem somewhat open with SHG being somewhat down and Morris being on the brink of 4A being among the headlines. While they don't scream state finalist, Highland may be in the mix to win multiple games with the right draw.
Triad (5-3): The MVC's second place finisher has been hard to pin down at times but all signs are pointing to them being one of the last 256 teams standing. They can seal the deal this Friday at Collinsville (5-3), which would be an upset of sorts. Of course, a potential loss makes for much more interesting analysis. They currently have 31 playoff points and will likely get 5 more, putting them comfortably into the postseason while the question of 4 win playoff teams is still being discussed. Triad will need some luck with their draw to win a postseason game, especially at 5-4.
Waterloo (4-4): After week 5, Waterloo seemed dead in the water. Their 1-4 record, featuring three consecutive losses, was unimpressive and their lone victory came 14-0 over 0-5 Columbia. All of that now seems like a distant memory as the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight, including a 42-13 beatdown of Mascoutah last Friday. Waterloo's late season rally now comes down to what they can do against Freeburg (5-3). They share two common opponents with the Midgets in Jerseyville and Columbia. Both defeated Columbia by exactly 14 but Waterloo won 21-12 over Jersey and Freeburg lost 27-21. Especially considering the fact that the Bulldogs must win this one, their chance of victory is best put around 75%. They may not be a huge factor in Class 4A but the shift in the field they would cause might be.
South Seven
Carbondale (6-2): The S7 could have as many as 4 playoff teams when the weekend is over but Carbondale is the only team that can be locked in at the moment. Credit that largely to their conference champion campaign that saw them amass a 4-0 mark against league foes. Week 9 still has stakes for them, however. As is the case with most 6 win teams, they will be looking to increase their odds of a home playoff game. The Terriers have low odds of earning that at 6-3 since they only have 31 points. Momentum is another factor in the balance when they host Mascoutah (2-5) on Friday. Going back to week three, Carbondale has not lost and losing here would really take the wind out of their sails. Assuming they can avoid some of the blue bloods hanging around the middle of Class 5A South, they should win at least one postseason contest.
Mt. Vernon (5-3): The Rams have been a tough nut to crack this year. One of many stats pointing to that is their 2-0 record when allowing 41 points, drawing back to last week's 70-41 Centralia win and their season opening 55-41 win over Waterloo. That being said, they should confidently be picked to protect their homefield over Alton (1-7) Friday evening. With just 29 playoff points, they will still find themselves as a pretty low seed in 5A. Mt. Vernon is not the style of team I'd want to draw as a top team however as they will hit you with some old school ground and pound, combined with a coach not afraid to be aggressive and always seeming to have some special teams trickery up his sleeves. Their postseason will be very matchup dependent.
Marion (4-4): Once 4-0, the Wildcats have really had a tough go as of late and most of that draws back to injuries. They seemed to find themselves again last week when leading Carbondale 26-24 in the fourth quarter before losing 32-26. Marion should finally become playoff eligible Friday night with a long trip up to 1-7 Mattoon. Mattoon has not won since week two and that victory came over 0-8 Olney. Their biggest area of concern this weekend should be how other 4-4 teams fare because with 28 playoff points, it is conceivable that Marion could still miss at 5-4.
Cahokia(4-4): As mentioned above, their fate comes down to what they can do against fellow 4-4 O'Fallon. They likely will lose that play-in game, which would be just their third on-field loss this year after taking two forfeits earlier. If they pull off the upset, don't count them out against whatever top seed draws them in 4A.
Other Notables:
Althoff (7-1): My information against their week 9 opponent, Durand, is pretty minimal but the projections put the Crusaders as a big underdog. Win or lose, Althoff should roll into the postseason as a top seed and do some damage. Not sure if it is realistic, but keep an eye on if they get bumped up from 1A to 2A. They should fare well in either but 1A seems to have less depth.
Collinsville (5-3): The Kahoks host Troy Triad (5-3) this week and should probably win. With their tally of 39 points, that may open the door to a home playoff game? Even then, they would need a very favorable draw to win their second ever playoff game after ending a 100+ year drought last year. They've played just two 7A/8A teams this year, resulting in a 24-21 loss to Belleville East (6-2) and a 54-0 win over winless Granite City.
