4-4 teams

[treyuc25]

Most of you have been around for longer than me or are at least more active. How do you think the 4-4 teams pan out. I was looking by division I dont think too well.
here is my predictions
8a (8) 2-6
7a (6) 3-3
6a (3)1-2
5a (11) 6-5
4a (8) 6-2
3a (5) 3-2
2a (2) 2-6
1a (15) 7-8
I am not an expert on any team but just going off the records of who they are playing im interested how much this will change the classes.

with 5 wins
1a 25
2a 28
3a 29
4a 27
5a 25
6a 30
7a 30
8a 28
So that leaves 35 openings for 4-4 teams. I only have 30 winning to get to 5-4. Just trying to see how playoff points will matter. I looks like in my opinion they will matter for the 4-5 teams.

 

[Nevada Dude]

I just don’t see the 4/5’s making it… you’re going to need to have 5 wins

 

[1390over]

You have at least 2 4-5 teams in the playoffs not including Mt Vernon .
If the favorites hold up against the 4-4 teams up you will have 4-5 teams at 4-5 make the field.

 

[Lion4Life01]

Hoping Viator can pull off a W vs. St. Pat's this weekend to go 5-4, but I think it will be a tough game....

 

[cigaros]

You have at least 2 4-5 teams in the playoffs not including Mt Vernon .
If the favorites hold up against the 4-4 teams up you will have 4-5 teams at 4-5 make the field.

I agree with you. I went thru the entire list. At the end of it all, after ever class has been fully seeded, 1A is short 4 teams. Which means there is a potential for four 4-5 teams to make it unless there are some upsets by 4-4 teams of better teams with better records.

 

[1390over]

You would need a lot of upsets in 1A-3A
To have all 5-4 teams making the field .
The math shows 3-5 4-5 teams making the field .

 

[4Afan]

You would need a lot of upsets in 1A-3A
To have all 5-4 teams making the field .
The math shows 3-5 4-5 teams making the field .

Why wouldn't all 5-4 teams get in? Record comes first so all 5-4 teams get in before even one 4-5 team gets in who isn't a conference winner.

 

[4Afan]

I agree with you. I went thru the entire list. At the end of it all, after ever class has been fully seeded, 1A is short 4 teams. Which means there is a potential for four 4-5 teams to make it unless there are some upsets by 4-4 teams of better teams with better records.

That's not quite how it works. First step is to determine the 256 qualifiers then the top 32 are 8A, the next 32 are 7A, etc. So as long as there are at least 256 qualifiers with a 5-4 record or better then no 4-5 teams get in who are not conference winners.

So far 147 teams have clinched a berth in this year's playoffs. There are 109 berths remaining. There are currently 66 4-4 teams and 75 5-3 teams. So that's 141 teams for 109 spots. Even though there are games that are 4-4 vs. 4-4 and 5-3 vs. 4-4 this weekend, I don't see how a 4-5 team gets in.

 

[cigaros]

That's not quite how it works. First step is to determine the 256 qualifiers then the top 32 are 8A, the next 32 are 7A, etc. So as long as there are at least 256 qualifiers with a 5-4 record or better then no 4-5 teams get in who are not conference winners.

So far 147 teams have clinched a berth in this year's playoffs. There are 109 berths remaining. There are currently 66 4-4 teams and 75 5-3 teams. So that's 141 teams for 109 spots. Even though there are games that are 4-4 vs. 4-4 and 5-3 vs. 4-4 this weekend, I don't see how a 4-5 team gets in.

What I said was after going thru all 8 brackets, 252 spots are filled with 5-4 teams if the games go as expected. If a 4-4 team pulls a surprising upset, things change. Surprising upsets would be, but doubtful:
8A
River Forest over York
Hinsdale over Glenbard West
New Trier over Maine South
Bartlett over Glenbard East
7A
Buffalo Grove over Hersey
Rolling Meadow over Mt. Prospect
6A
Rock Island over Quincy
5A
Morton over Washington
4A
Cahokia over O'Fallon
Lincoln over Triad
3A
Greenville over Vandalia
2A
Deer Creek over Eureka
Orion over Rockridge
Hamilton County over Valier
Flora over White County
Mater Dei over Mt. Zion
1A
Illini West over Macomb
West Central over Unity
Westfield over Richland County

If 4 occur, there will be no 4-5 teams in the playoffs. Otherwise it is very very likely.

 

[cigaros]

You would need a lot of upsets in 1A-3A
To have all 5-4 teams making the field .
The math shows 3-5 4-5 teams making the field .

Bingo!

 

[4Afan]

What I said was after going thru all 8 brackets, 252 spots are filled with 5-4 teams if the games go as expected. If a 4-4 team pulls a surprising upset, things change. Surprising upsets would be, but doubtful:
8A
River Forest over York
Hinsdale over Glenbard West
New Trier over Maine South
Bartlett over Glenbard East
7A
Buffalo Grove over Hersey
Rolling Meadow over Mt. Prospect
6A
Rock Island over Quincy
5A
Morton over Washington
4A
Cahokia over O'Fallon
Lincoln over Triad
3A
Greenville over Vandalia
2A
Deer Creek over Eureka
Orion over Rockridge
Hamilton County over Valier
Flora over White County
Mater Dei over Mt. Zion
1A
Illini West over Macomb
West Central over Unity
Westfield over Richland County

If 4 occur, there will be no 4-5 teams in the playoffs. Otherwise it is very very likely.

Don't look at brackets. At this point there are no brackets. Just look at 5-3 and 4-4 teams regardless of class because classes are just guesses at this point.

Are you factoring in any 5-3 teams that get beat to become a 5-4 team or are you just looking at 4-4 teams? I go back to my original math with 141 teams at 4-4 or 5-3 for 109 available spots. Obviously anything can happen and that's why we all love this game but I don't see how that leaves room for 4-5 teams to get in.

I'm saying that by next Saturday night there are at least 109 6-3 or 5-4 teams to fill the remaining available spots.

The main number is 256. If you have 256 at 5-4 or better then nothing else matters.

 

[1390over]

You have 8 teams at 4-4 playing each other
You have also have many 4-4 teams that will not win and our big underdogs.

1a
Illinois west vs Macomb
Westfield vs Olney
Chicago Christian vs Ridgewood
2a
Deer Creek vs Eureka
Hamilton vs Sesser
Orion vs Taylor Ridge
Flora vs Carmi
Mater Dei at Mt Zion
3a
Lisle be Peotone
Greenville vs Vandalia

4a
Lincoln vs Troy

5a
Morton vs Washington

6a
Rockford vS Quincy

7a
Buffalo Grove vs Hersey
Rolling Meadows vs Prospect

8a

Hinsdale Central vs Glenbard West
Oak Park vs York
New Trier vs Maine South
Bartlett vs Glenbard East
Joliet west vs Plainfield

You also have games like Hillcrest vs Oak Forest
Burlington Vs Grays Lake
A lot of 1A -2a coin flips
With 141 teams going for 109 spots
Is really 125 teams since 8 teams 4-4 are playing each other .
If the favorites win which they should.
It leaves 4 spots open .
That’s not including the 50/50 games
This will be the year 4-5 teams make it as an at large

 

[4Afan]

You have 8 teams at 4-4 playing each other
You have also have many 4-4 teams that will not win and our big underdogs.

1a
Illinois west vs Macomb
Westfield vs Olney
Chicago Christian vs Ridgewood
2a
Deer Creek vs Eureka
Hamilton vs Sesser
Orion vs Taylor Ridge
Flora vs Carmi
Mater Dei at Mt Zion
3a
Lisle be Peotone
Greenville vs Vandalia

4a
Lincoln vs Troy

5a
Morton vs Washington

6a
Rockford vS Quincy

7a
Buffalo Grove vs Hersey
Rolling Meadows vs Prospect

8a

Hinsdale Central vs Glenbard West
Oak Park vs York
New Trier vs Maine South
Bartlett vs Glenbard East
Joliet west vs Plainfield

You also have games like Hillcrest vs Oak Forest
Burlington Vs Grays Lake
A lot of 1A -2a coin flips
With 141 teams going for 109 spots
Is really 125 teams since 8 teams 4-4 are playing each other .
If the favorites win which they should.
It leaves 4 spots open .
That’s not including the 50/50 games
This will be the year 4-5 teams make it as an at large

Here's my breakdown. 141 for 109 spots. There's actual 18 games that are 4-4 vs. 4-4 so those winners brings the number down to 123 for 109. There are also 22 4-4 teams that would be "favored" over teams with worse records so if 14 of those win then you have your 109 spots filled with teams 5-4 or better.

There will be 4-4 teams that lose but there will also be 5-3 teams that lose to become 5-4.

 

[cigaros]

Don't look at brackets. At this point there are no brackets. Just look at 5-3 and 4-4 teams regardless of class because classes are just guesses at this point.

Are you factoring in any 5-3 teams that get beat to become a 5-4 team or are you just looking at 4-4 teams? I go back to my original math with 141 teams at 4-4 or 5-3 for 109 available spots. Obviously anything can happen and that's why we all love this game but I don't see how that leaves room for 4-5 teams to get in.

I'm saying that by next Saturday night there are at least 109 6-3 or 5-4 teams to fill the remaining available spots.

The main number is 256. If you have 256 at 5-4 or better then nothing else matters.

That is the issue. There are only 252 teams at 5-4 if all games go as expected. However, if some upsets occur, all will be good and we will only have teams with a winning record in the playoffs with the exception of Mt. Vernon who is likely to lose to Mt. Carmel but has qualified as the conference champ.

 

[4Afan]

That is the issue. There are only 252 teams at 5-4 if all games go as expected. However, if some upsets occur, all will be good and we will only have teams with a winning record in the playoffs with the exception of Mt. Vernon who is likely to lose to Mt. Carmel but has qualified as the conference champ.

There's 66 4-4 teams and 75 5-3 teams going into this weekend. You're telling me you predicted all those games to get 252 teams at 5-4 or better?

 

[1390over]

Here's my breakdown. 141 for 109 spots. There's actual 18 games that are 4-4 vs. 4-4 so those winners brings the number down to 123 for 109. There are also 22 4-4 teams that would be "favored" over teams with worse records so if 14 of those win then you have your 109 spots filled with teams 5-4 or better.

There will be 4-4 teams that lose but there will also be 5-3 teams that lose to become 5-4.

There are 8 games 4-4 teams not 22
Naz vs Benet
St pats vs St Viator
Dupo vs Nokiomos
Erie vs Morrison
Highland vs Maine west
Chicago Richards vs Agscience
Rowe vs Prcksker
Toulon vs Princeville

If you do the Math
You will have many at large 4-5 teams
Could be as high as 7-9
Almost all 7-8a teams
Benet the smallest

 

[4Afan]

There are 8 games 4-4 teams not 22
Naz vs Benet
St pats vs St Viator
Dupo vs Nokiomos
Erie vs Morrison
Highland vs Maine west
Chicago Richards vs Agscience
Rowe vs Prcksker
Toulon vs Princeville

If you do the Math
You will have many at large 4-5 teams
Could be as high as 7-9
Almost all 7-8a teams
Benet the smallest

You're right, I was foolish and counted each game twice. There's 9 4-4 vs. 4-4 games. So if there's 141 teams for 109 spots, take out those 9 4-4 winners and there are 132 teams for 109 spots. There are 66 total 4-4 teams, take out the 18 playing each other (winners get in, losers don't). So 23 out of 48 remaining 4-4 teams need to win in order for no 4-5 teams to get in.

"If you do the Math you will have many at large 4-5 teams". What is the math? What are your numbers? I'm not saying it's not possible but I don't see it.

 

[Ger-Man]

You're right, I was foolish and counted each game twice. There's 9 4-4 vs. 4-4 games. So if there's 141 teams for 109 spots, take out those 9 4-4 winners and there are 132 teams for 109 spots. There are 66 total 4-4 teams, take out the 18 playing each other (winners get in, losers don't). So 23 out of 48 remaining 4-4 teams need to win in order for no 4-5 teams to get in.

"If you do the Math you will have many at large 4-5 teams". What is the math? What are your numbers? I'm not saying it's not possible but I don't see it.

Out of those 48 4-4 teams only about 16-20 would be favorite to win.

 

[treyuc25]

The teams with the highest playoff points right now that are projected 4-5.
1. Buffalo Grove - 50
2. St. Pats 46 (coin flip)
3. WWS- 45
4. OPFR - 44
5. Benet - 44
6. Chicago Vocational - 44
7. Barrington - 44
8. and about 6 teams at 42.
This will change with the games this week.
Good luck this weekend to your teams. Its going to be fun to watch Saturday Night.

 

[Fishwater41]

You would need a lot of upsets in 1A-3A
To have all 5-4 teams making the field .
The math shows 3-5 4-5 teams making the field .

Wow, you are kidding right

 

[FballDaddy]

I got dizzy reading this thread. Alot of people don't have any idea how the selections work and we may need better math education in this state after all......

 

[treyuc25]

I got dizzy reading this thread. Alot of people don't have any idea how the selections work and we may need better math education in this state after all......

Started this thread so Masters such as yourself can enlighten us. Please share your knowledge of the process...

 

[Quags57]

So here is what I have come up with.

There are 147 team already qualified. There are another 75 teams that have 5 wins. That brings you to 222 teams.

There are 67 teams with 4 wins. 16 of those teams play each other. That means another 8 teams in the playoffs bringing the field to 230 teams, leaving 26 spots left.

18 four-win teams play teams that are 8-0; 7-1 or 6-2. On the flip side, 15 team play teams that are 0-8; 1-7, 2-6.

13 teams play games against teams that are 5-3. only 5 teams play games against teams that are 3-5.

Based on this, I think we could see three or four teams that would get at large berths with 4-5 records.

 

[1390over]

You're right, I was foolish and counted each game twice. There's 9 4-4 vs. 4-4 games. So if there's 141 teams for 109 spots, take out those 9 4-4 winners and there are 132 teams for 109 spots. There are 66 total 4-4 teams, take out the 18 playing each other (winners get in, losers don't). So 23 out of 48 remaining 4-4 teams need to win in order for no 4-5 teams to get in.

"If you do the Math you will have many at large 4-5 teams". What is the math? What are your numbers? I'm not saying it's not possible but I don't see it.

You have 20 4-4 teams that are big under dogs and many other 4-4 teams that are slight under dogs .

1A 31- Rockford needs to upset Winnebago to increase the number
2A 30- I have Bellville Catholic in have to beat Alton if not number goes to 29 if they lose
3A 32-Greenville has to beat Vandalia to increase
4A 32- Cahokia has to beat O'Fallon -Lincoln over Troy
5A 31 -Need wins from Hillcrest,Lakes, to increase
6A 30-Rockford over Quincy to increase
7A 33 - All set
8A 31 -All set unless major upsets happen

Total teams 250 that leaves (6 -4-5 teams)

I would say 3-4 (4-5 teams) make it

I got dizzy reading this thread. Alot of people don't have any idea how the selections work and we may need better math education in this state after all......

 

[Quags57]

You have 20 4-4 teams that are big under dogs and many other 4-4 teams that are slight under dogs .

1A 31- Rockford needs to upset Winnebago to increase the number
2A 30- I have Bellville Catholic in have to beat Alton if not number goes to 29 if they lose
3A 32-Greenville has to beat Vandalia to increase
4A 32- Cahokia has to beat O'Fallon -Lincoln over Troy
5A 31 -Need wins from Hillcrest,Lakes, to increase
6A 30-Rockford over Quincy to increase
7A 33 - All set
8A 31 -All set unless major upsets happen

Total teams 250 that leaves (6 -4-5 teams)

I would say 3-4 (4-5 teams) make it

The breakdown you have by class is meaningless. the 256-field is determined. then teams are broken into class.

 

[1390over]

Of course the class sizes are not determined yet but they are very close to it.
The way I did it is using the IHSA playoff outlook and basically counting the 4-4 teams that will probably win and lose.

I started at 1A -8A

Its not that hard to figure it out.

My predictions are almost exact to what Soucie has but I have more 4-5 teams making the field as an at large.

He is has more upsets than I have .

 

[CIMRY90]

In my opinion, I think Mt Vernon gets its 5th win against Mt. Carmel. MTV's on field record would be 6-2 with its two on field losses by a touchdown. MTV plays a 4A and 5A schedule. Whereas, MTC comes in 8-0 but only playing one 4A school and the balance being 1A,2A and 3A schools. This is no way a criticism of MTC schedule as they are firmly in 3A and with one of its two non conference games is playing 5A MTV.

I do realize MTV has qualified as Conference Champs.

 

[FballDaddy]

Started this thread so Masters such as yourself can enlighten us. Please share your knowledge of the process...

There are several threads ALREADY in process that discussed this (and included the selection criteria). GW86 has a nice post showing everyone what the rules are. But, simply, the people who don't first understand that we pick 256 best teams FIRST, keep posting and putting misinformed info out there.

 

[treyuc25]

There are several threads ALREADY in process that discussed this (and included the selection criteria). GW86 has a nice post showing everyone what the rules are. But, simply, the people who don't first understand that we pick 256 best teams FIRST, keep posting and putting misinformed info out there.

But last time a checked 8 x 32 is…. 256. But feel free to check that math since you pointed out how bad everyone’s is. I get it some were going about it if the wrong way but we were going in the same direction. So apologies for that.
The post you are talking about it’s great! However, it was posted after most of the comments were made. But feel free to stay on your high horse and talk down to people.

 

[cigaros]

There's 66 4-4 teams and 75 5-3 teams going into this weekend. You're telling me you predicted all those games to get 252 teams at 5-4 or better?

What I said was “if all goes as expected, there will be 252 at 5-4 teams or better. Leaving 4 spots for 4-5 teams. Check todays iHSA site to see if I was correct in my assumption.

 

[Catch--22]

I have 250 teams with 5 wins or a conference champion. I’m missing 3 scores of 4-4 teams last night. We have two matchups of 4-4 teams today, so 4 teams getting in “at large” with 4 wins is the max.

and I was doing all this at 2AM, so it could be completely wrong and totally useless.

 

[stl705]

Soucie was projecting 1 4-5 team to get in last night. Still 4 games today that can impact that.

 

[Catch--22]

Soucie was projecting 1 4-5 team to get in last night. Still 4 games today that can impact that.

Yeah, I was watching his live whatever, and I heard him mumble Buffalo Grove. I’m on the wrong side of his pay wall, so I didn’t see the entire bracket.

 

[IlliniEight4ever]

Right now 72 spots open for 76 teams.Take out Urbana & Westmont who shouldn’t be listed so that’s 74 teams for 72 spots.Argo is in because they have more points than Madison who played 8 games.I had a game lined up for them but the coach knew better than me so they didn’t play.The team that wanted to play them in Missouri has 5 wins.Ag Science vs Richards loser is 4-5 probably out.St Pats vs St Viator loser might be out.Viator has good playoff points but if St Pats loses they will have at least 51 & should get in too

 

[mc140]

If Hinsdale Central (likely) or Notre Dame loses (toss up), a 4-5 team will make it.

 

[IlliniEight4ever]

If Hinsdale Central (likely) or Notre Dame loses (toss up), a 4-5 team will make it.

I’m thinking 3 or 4 at least

 

[IlliniEight4ever]

Hoping Viator can pull off a W vs. St. Pat's this weekend to go 5-4, but I think it will be a tough game....

Win & in the loser I think gets in too

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Looking at IHSA conference standings these look like the best candidates to get in at 4-5
Benet
St Pats if they lose
New Trier
Buffalo Grove
Barrington
Cahokia
Kewanee
Rock island
OPRf

BG has the most points at 55 so they would be first of the group. New trier Barrington and Kewanee next.

If Quincy ND and HC lose that opens two spots.

 

[mc140]

I’m thinking 3 or 4 at least

Doubtful. Only mathematically possible if Rich Township loses to Leo and Westinghouse loss to Brooks. Along with Notre Dame and Hinsdale Central losing.

 

[mc140]

Looking at IHSA conference standings these look like the best candidates to get in at 4-5
Benet
St Pats if they lose
New Trier
Buffalo Grove
Barrington
Cahokia
Kewanee
Rock island
OPRf

BG has the most points at 55 so they would be first of the group. New trier Barrington and Kewanee next.

If Quincy ND and HC lose that opens two spots.

Benet is after BG