Well, this was something.
I’ve projected 270 schools to reach the 5-4 or better status meaning 14 schools will be eliminating on tie break. I’m projecting the breakline to be at 36, possibly 37 for the time being. If you currently have 21 or less points through five weeks you are in danger of being one of the teams eliminated via points at this stage.
Teams eliminated on playoff points are: Chicago Christian, Oneida ROWVA, Champaign Central, Dwight, Franklin Park Leyden, Cambridge-Ridgewood, North Chicago, Walther Christian, Nokomis, Cuba North Fulton, Edwards County, Pinckneyville and Bradley-Bourbonnais.
First team out: Bradley-Bourbonnais.
As for the class jumping, I think there are two primary causes for this. 1) Most of the upstarts are coming from the very small classifications and most of the stalwarts that we are used to having in the field that are not on track to making it come from the larger classifications. 2) The change in the Chicago Public League qualification process is causing several teams to make the field that wouldn’t have the opportunity to make the field in the old process. Those teams are congregating in 3A, 4A and 5A classifications which is pushing teams farther up and would explain why we are finding teams we are used to seeing in 5A in 6A, 6A in 7A and 7A in 8A. I initially thought this would lead to maybe four or five more teams making the field from the CPL, and while that’s true, it is important to note that when those teams are all coming in via smaller classifications it has a ripple effect.
I’d also like to note there are numerous really shaky teams in here that more data will likely correct and some conferences that I still don’t have a great read on in regards to where the 5-4’s might come from. There are also several teams excluded here that I see a very easy path for them to be included. But when you project like this, you can’t go half way. There are two teams right now that I don’t have in that probably deserve playoff spots that I am not giving them right now because of razor thin margins in conference rankings that have them out. These are things that could be easily corrected with one win in a game where I have them as a slight underdog. The first projection is always the roughest one.
Class 8A
Smallest school: Lisle Benet
(32) Neuqua Valley at (1) Brother Rice
(17) South Elgin at (16) Plainfield South
(25) Minooka at (8) Evanston
(24) St. Charles East at (9) Aurora (West)
(29) New Trier at (4) Glenbard East
(20) Loyola at (13) Marist
(28) Oak Park-River Forest at (5) Oswego
(21) Barrington at (12) Glenbard West
(31) Benet at (2) Lincoln-Way East
(18) Waubonsie Valley at (15) Hinsdale Central
(26) Bartlett at (7) Maine South
(23) Naperville Central at (10) Oswego East
(30) Gurnee Warren at (3) Simeon
(19) Huntley at (14) Bolingbrook
(27) Hoffman Estates Conant at (6) Homewood-Flossmoor
(22) Edwardsville at (11) Lincolnshire Stevenson
Class 7A
Largest school: Tinley Park Andrew
Smallest school: Palos Heights Shepard
(32) Schaumburg at (1) Nazareth
(17) Lincoln-Way West at (16) T.F. South
(25) Quincy at (8) Hersey
(24) Lincoln-Way Central at (9) Mount Carmel
(29) Reavis at (4) Hoffman Estates
(20) St. Charles North at (13) East St. Louis
(28) Andrew at (5) Willowbrook
(21) Maine West at (12) Shepard
(31) Lincoln Park at (2) Rolling Meadows
(18) Wheaton Warrenville South at (15) Lake Zurich
(26) Yorkville at (7) DeKalb
(23) Machesney Park Harlem at (10) Moline
(30) Alton at (3) Batavia
(19) Highland Park at (14) Hubbard
(27) Glenbrook North at (6) Hononegah
(22) Belleville West at (11) Normal Community
Class 6A
Smallest school: Perspectives/Leadership
Largest school: Von Steuben
North Bracket
(16) Grayslake North at (1) Cary-Grove
(9) Mather at (8) St. Ignatius
(13) Fenton at (4) Niles Notre Dame
(12) Von Steuben at (5) Phillips
(15) Belvidere North at (2) Antioch
(10) Lake Forest at (7) Lake Villa Lakes
(14) Prairie Ridge at (3) Kaneland
(11) Wheeling at (6) Crystal Lake South
South Bracket
(16) Springfield at (1) Oak Lawn Richards
(9) Crete-Monee at (8) Rock Island
(13) Lemont at (4) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin
(12) Dunlap at (5) Chatham Glenwood
(15) Peoria at (2) Washington
(10) Perspectives/Leadership at (7) Bloomington
(14) Providence Catholic at (3) Kenwood
(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Normal Community West
Class 5A
Smallest school: Evergreen Park
Largest school: Peoria Notre Dame
North Bracket
(16) Glenbard South at (1) Sterling
(9) Sycamore at (8) Elmwood Park
(13) Woodstock Marian at (4) Lombard Montini
(12) De La Salle at (5) Amundsen
(15) Ridgewood at (2) Payton
(10) Freeport at (7) Back of the Yards
(14) Woodstock North at (3) Rockford Boylan
(11) St. Patrick at (6) Wheaton St. Francis
South Bracket
(16) Joliet Catholic at (1) Hillcrest
(9) Hyde Park at (8) Mascoutah
(13) Vocational at (4) Cahokia
(12) Rich Central at (5) Marion
(15) Rich East at (2) Highland
(10) Carbondale at (7) Evergreen Park
(14) Peoria Notre Dame at (3) Metamora
(11) Decatur MacArthur at (6) Morton
Class 4A
Smallest school: Prairie Central
Largest school: Mount Zion
North Bracket
(16) Dixon at (1) IC Catholic
(9) Richmond-Burton at (8) Stillman Valley
(13) Chicago Sullivan at (4) Johnsburg
(12) Clemente at (5) Genoa-Kingston
(15) Wheaton Academy at (2) Bishop McNamara
(10) Marengo at (7) Agricultural Science
(14) St. Edward at (3) Coal City
(11) Raby at (6) Urban Prep-Bronzeville
South Bracket
(16) Murphysboro at (1) Paris
(9) Freeburg at (8) Clinton
(13) Salem at (4) Rochester
(12) Prairie Central at (5) Pontiac
(15) Breese Central at (2) Taylorville
(10) Effingham at (7) Herrin
(14) Mount Zion at (3) Columbia
(11) Olney East Richland at (6) Breese Mater Dei
Class 3A
Smallest school: Fairfield
Largest school: Wood River (East Alton)
North Bracket
(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron
(9) Dunbar at (8) Wilmington
(13) Seneca at (4) Lisle
(12) Clark at (5) Spring Valley Hall
(15) St. Thomas More at (2) Farmington
(10) Poplar Grove North Boone at (7) Peotone
(14) Princeton at (3) Elmwood
(11) Urban Prep-Englewood at (6) Monmouth
South Bracket
(16) Mt. Carmel at (1) Beardstown
(9) Eureka at (8) Paxton
(13) Greenville at (4) Monticello
(12) Anna-Jonesboro at (5) Carlinville
(15) Wood River (East Alton) at (2) Fairfield
(10) St. Joseph-Ogden at (7) West Frankfort
(14) Newton at (3) DuQuoin
(11) Vandalia at (6) Williamsville
Class 2A
Smallest school: Jacksonville Routt
Largest school: Pleasant Plains
North Bracket
(16) West Prairie at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(9) Tri-Valley at (8) Hamilton West Hancock
(13) Ridgeview at (4) Collins
(12) Rockford Christian at (5) Sterling Newman Central Catholic
(15) Knoxville at (2) Lanark Eastland
(10) Rockridge at (7) Hope Academy
(14) Clifton Central at (3) Orion
(11) Mercer County at (6) Illini West
South Bracket
(16) Marshall at (1) Decatur St. Teresa
(9) Nashville at (8) Pleasant Plains
(13) Staunton at (4) Bismarck-Henning
(12) Alton Marquette at (5) Eldorado
(15) Rushville at (2) Maroa-Forsyth
(10) Decatur Lutheran at (7) Chester
(14) Jacksonville Routt at (3) Pana
(11) Auburn at (6) Athens
Class 1A
Largest school: Tuscola
North Bracket:
(16) Freeport Aquin at (1) Salt Fork
(9) Chicago Orr at (8) Polo
(13) Dakota at (4) Ottawa Marquette
(12) Orangeville at (5) Lena-Winslow
(15) Fulton at (2) Milledgeville
(10) Aurora Christian at (7) Forreston
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Princeville
(11) Kewanee Wethersfield at (6) Fisher
South Bracket
(16) Oakland Tri-County at (1) Argenta-Oreana
(9) Concord Triopia at (8) Arcola
(13) Georgetown-Ridge Farm at (4) Camp Point Central
(12) Warrensburg-Latham at (5) Bridgeport Red Hill
(15) Moweaqua (Central A&M) at (2) Madison
(10) Carrollton at (7) Toledo Cumberland
(14) Greenfield at (3) Tuscola
(11) Cerro Gordo at (6) Sesser-Valier
I’ve projected 270 schools to reach the 5-4 or better status meaning 14 schools will be eliminating on tie break. I’m projecting the breakline to be at 36, possibly 37 for the time being. If you currently have 21 or less points through five weeks you are in danger of being one of the teams eliminated via points at this stage.
Teams eliminated on playoff points are: Chicago Christian, Oneida ROWVA, Champaign Central, Dwight, Franklin Park Leyden, Cambridge-Ridgewood, North Chicago, Walther Christian, Nokomis, Cuba North Fulton, Edwards County, Pinckneyville and Bradley-Bourbonnais.
First team out: Bradley-Bourbonnais.
As for the class jumping, I think there are two primary causes for this. 1) Most of the upstarts are coming from the very small classifications and most of the stalwarts that we are used to having in the field that are not on track to making it come from the larger classifications. 2) The change in the Chicago Public League qualification process is causing several teams to make the field that wouldn’t have the opportunity to make the field in the old process. Those teams are congregating in 3A, 4A and 5A classifications which is pushing teams farther up and would explain why we are finding teams we are used to seeing in 5A in 6A, 6A in 7A and 7A in 8A. I initially thought this would lead to maybe four or five more teams making the field from the CPL, and while that’s true, it is important to note that when those teams are all coming in via smaller classifications it has a ripple effect.
I’d also like to note there are numerous really shaky teams in here that more data will likely correct and some conferences that I still don’t have a great read on in regards to where the 5-4’s might come from. There are also several teams excluded here that I see a very easy path for them to be included. But when you project like this, you can’t go half way. There are two teams right now that I don’t have in that probably deserve playoff spots that I am not giving them right now because of razor thin margins in conference rankings that have them out. These are things that could be easily corrected with one win in a game where I have them as a slight underdog. The first projection is always the roughest one.
Class 8A
Smallest school: Lisle Benet
(32) Neuqua Valley at (1) Brother Rice
(17) South Elgin at (16) Plainfield South
(25) Minooka at (8) Evanston
(24) St. Charles East at (9) Aurora (West)
(29) New Trier at (4) Glenbard East
(20) Loyola at (13) Marist
(28) Oak Park-River Forest at (5) Oswego
(21) Barrington at (12) Glenbard West
(31) Benet at (2) Lincoln-Way East
(18) Waubonsie Valley at (15) Hinsdale Central
(26) Bartlett at (7) Maine South
(23) Naperville Central at (10) Oswego East
(30) Gurnee Warren at (3) Simeon
(19) Huntley at (14) Bolingbrook
(27) Hoffman Estates Conant at (6) Homewood-Flossmoor
(22) Edwardsville at (11) Lincolnshire Stevenson
Class 7A
Largest school: Tinley Park Andrew
Smallest school: Palos Heights Shepard
(32) Schaumburg at (1) Nazareth
(17) Lincoln-Way West at (16) T.F. South
(25) Quincy at (8) Hersey
(24) Lincoln-Way Central at (9) Mount Carmel
(29) Reavis at (4) Hoffman Estates
(20) St. Charles North at (13) East St. Louis
(28) Andrew at (5) Willowbrook
(21) Maine West at (12) Shepard
(31) Lincoln Park at (2) Rolling Meadows
(18) Wheaton Warrenville South at (15) Lake Zurich
(26) Yorkville at (7) DeKalb
(23) Machesney Park Harlem at (10) Moline
(30) Alton at (3) Batavia
(19) Highland Park at (14) Hubbard
(27) Glenbrook North at (6) Hononegah
(22) Belleville West at (11) Normal Community
Class 6A
Smallest school: Perspectives/Leadership
Largest school: Von Steuben
North Bracket
(16) Grayslake North at (1) Cary-Grove
(9) Mather at (8) St. Ignatius
(13) Fenton at (4) Niles Notre Dame
(12) Von Steuben at (5) Phillips
(15) Belvidere North at (2) Antioch
(10) Lake Forest at (7) Lake Villa Lakes
(14) Prairie Ridge at (3) Kaneland
(11) Wheeling at (6) Crystal Lake South
South Bracket
(16) Springfield at (1) Oak Lawn Richards
(9) Crete-Monee at (8) Rock Island
(13) Lemont at (4) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin
(12) Dunlap at (5) Chatham Glenwood
(15) Peoria at (2) Washington
(10) Perspectives/Leadership at (7) Bloomington
(14) Providence Catholic at (3) Kenwood
(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Normal Community West
Class 5A
Smallest school: Evergreen Park
Largest school: Peoria Notre Dame
North Bracket
(16) Glenbard South at (1) Sterling
(9) Sycamore at (8) Elmwood Park
(13) Woodstock Marian at (4) Lombard Montini
(12) De La Salle at (5) Amundsen
(15) Ridgewood at (2) Payton
(10) Freeport at (7) Back of the Yards
(14) Woodstock North at (3) Rockford Boylan
(11) St. Patrick at (6) Wheaton St. Francis
South Bracket
(16) Joliet Catholic at (1) Hillcrest
(9) Hyde Park at (8) Mascoutah
(13) Vocational at (4) Cahokia
(12) Rich Central at (5) Marion
(15) Rich East at (2) Highland
(10) Carbondale at (7) Evergreen Park
(14) Peoria Notre Dame at (3) Metamora
(11) Decatur MacArthur at (6) Morton
Class 4A
Smallest school: Prairie Central
Largest school: Mount Zion
North Bracket
(16) Dixon at (1) IC Catholic
(9) Richmond-Burton at (8) Stillman Valley
(13) Chicago Sullivan at (4) Johnsburg
(12) Clemente at (5) Genoa-Kingston
(15) Wheaton Academy at (2) Bishop McNamara
(10) Marengo at (7) Agricultural Science
(14) St. Edward at (3) Coal City
(11) Raby at (6) Urban Prep-Bronzeville
South Bracket
(16) Murphysboro at (1) Paris
(9) Freeburg at (8) Clinton
(13) Salem at (4) Rochester
(12) Prairie Central at (5) Pontiac
(15) Breese Central at (2) Taylorville
(10) Effingham at (7) Herrin
(14) Mount Zion at (3) Columbia
(11) Olney East Richland at (6) Breese Mater Dei
Class 3A
Smallest school: Fairfield
Largest school: Wood River (East Alton)
North Bracket
(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron
(9) Dunbar at (8) Wilmington
(13) Seneca at (4) Lisle
(12) Clark at (5) Spring Valley Hall
(15) St. Thomas More at (2) Farmington
(10) Poplar Grove North Boone at (7) Peotone
(14) Princeton at (3) Elmwood
(11) Urban Prep-Englewood at (6) Monmouth
South Bracket
(16) Mt. Carmel at (1) Beardstown
(9) Eureka at (8) Paxton
(13) Greenville at (4) Monticello
(12) Anna-Jonesboro at (5) Carlinville
(15) Wood River (East Alton) at (2) Fairfield
(10) St. Joseph-Ogden at (7) West Frankfort
(14) Newton at (3) DuQuoin
(11) Vandalia at (6) Williamsville
Class 2A
Smallest school: Jacksonville Routt
Largest school: Pleasant Plains
North Bracket
(16) West Prairie at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(9) Tri-Valley at (8) Hamilton West Hancock
(13) Ridgeview at (4) Collins
(12) Rockford Christian at (5) Sterling Newman Central Catholic
(15) Knoxville at (2) Lanark Eastland
(10) Rockridge at (7) Hope Academy
(14) Clifton Central at (3) Orion
(11) Mercer County at (6) Illini West
South Bracket
(16) Marshall at (1) Decatur St. Teresa
(9) Nashville at (8) Pleasant Plains
(13) Staunton at (4) Bismarck-Henning
(12) Alton Marquette at (5) Eldorado
(15) Rushville at (2) Maroa-Forsyth
(10) Decatur Lutheran at (7) Chester
(14) Jacksonville Routt at (3) Pana
(11) Auburn at (6) Athens
Class 1A
Largest school: Tuscola
North Bracket:
(16) Freeport Aquin at (1) Salt Fork
(9) Chicago Orr at (8) Polo
(13) Dakota at (4) Ottawa Marquette
(12) Orangeville at (5) Lena-Winslow
(15) Fulton at (2) Milledgeville
(10) Aurora Christian at (7) Forreston
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Princeville
(11) Kewanee Wethersfield at (6) Fisher
South Bracket
(16) Oakland Tri-County at (1) Argenta-Oreana
(9) Concord Triopia at (8) Arcola
(13) Georgetown-Ridge Farm at (4) Camp Point Central
(12) Warrensburg-Latham at (5) Bridgeport Red Hill
(15) Moweaqua (Central A&M) at (2) Madison
(10) Carrollton at (7) Toledo Cumberland
(14) Greenfield at (3) Tuscola
(11) Cerro Gordo at (6) Sesser-Valier
