IHSA Playoff Outlook
- Thread starter cornerrat
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From my area:
Morris currently smallest 5A team (if they go 4A, just another very good team to add to what already is a beast for that level)
Wilmo is currently fairly solidly in 2A as 3rd or 4th largest school.
Also: Montini is a 3A team that nobody in that class wants to play. Assuming they beat St. Larry this week, they still have to win one of their last 4 games which appear pretty tough. Teams like Reed-Custer and Princeton should be hoping for Montini losses.
Morris currently smallest 5A team (if they go 4A, just another very good team to add to what already is a beast for that level)
Wilmo is currently fairly solidly in 2A as 3rd or 4th largest school.
Also: Montini is a 3A team that nobody in that class wants to play. Assuming they beat St. Larry this week, they still have to win one of their last 4 games which appear pretty tough. Teams like Reed-Custer and Princeton should be hoping for Montini losses.
This is wild. Morris is one of the front runners in 5A along with maybe Peoria and perhaps A beleaguered Naz if they can snap out of it. Perhaps sycamore.
in 4a, they become just one of 5 to 8 possible contenders. Never seen this on the 4a/5A cutoff before. Any bubble team has to be seeing two vastly different paths and the bigger class is the far less deep and talented class.
4A looks like it could be unreal this year. Don’t forget about Kankakee in 5A.
Isn't IC a 3a school?. I don't think they fear Montini after soundly whipping them.
Point is that a potential 5-4 Montini team is much tougher draw that a typical 5-4 3A team.
All.... I started a very preliminary look at the eight classes Sunday morning and saw the "push" as well towards 3A for SHG as did Steve. Still very early.. Starts at about the 39 minute mark. Ratsy
www.channel1450.com
The Download with DP S2 Ep 12 – Steve Soucie
Could SHG football go 3A in the playoffs? Steve Soucie, the Illinois high school football playoff guru from Friday Night Drive joins DP at 10:05 to discuss all things high school football in Illinois. Nick Broeker joins
www.channel1450.com
So, are the SHG faithful NOW rooting for teams to push Rochester DOWN into 4A rather than UP into 5A? Interesting dynamic, indeed.All.... I started a very preliminary look at the eight classes Sunday morning and saw the "push" as well towards 3A for SHG as did Steve. Still very early.. Starts at about the 39 minute mark. Ratsy
The Download with DP S2 Ep 12 – Steve Soucie
Could SHG football go 3A in the playoffs? Steve Soucie, the Illinois high school football playoff guru from Friday Night Drive joins DP at 10:05 to discuss all things high school football in Illinois. Nick Broeker joins
All... Being so early and the numerous variables with movement still that could occur very few Cycs fans have talked with the Rat about this. Those that did seem to favor both SHG and Rochester in 4A with the potential of another game between the two teams. Not much of an "analysis." considering the small sampling that expressed an opinion. Ratsy
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I don’t think SHg really is concerned at this point. Would be strange but with their enrollment dropping it’s going to happen in near future ethier way. 607 puts them as 2nd smallest 4A I think. Shg plays 2A in most 4 class systems except basketball (that sounds weird that basketball at SHG is success factored )…SHG will play whomever is in front of them. An IC vs SHG final would be interesting.
Will definitely be interesting for the fans to follow the projected playoff class for the Cyclones week-to-week. If it's 3A, there is the possibility of semifinal between SHG and Williamsville. That would bring the howls from up I-55 way. 4A would most likely see another SHG/Rochester semifinal (if SHG and Rochester win out in the regular season and each team makes it that far). I think Rochester would welcome this, especially if the game's at Rochester. Still at least 4 to 5 games to go however, before some probability can be fleshed out as to which class the Cyclones will end up in.
All.... Correct. And I believe their actual enrollment now is just a bit over 500. The new two enrollment block starts next season although the Cyclones and Hilltoppers will be multiplied . Ratsy
All.... I don't believe the Cyclones will end up in 3A. We will see. If that were to happen though then somewhat of a partial theory by the Williamsville folk could be tested. A few years back on local radio for a period of time their faithful started calling in. The mindset was as they continue to grow in enrollment the Bullets could fit into the CS8. I couldn't help but call in when that idea was being floated around..... Ratsy
The Bullets would definitely be a big improvement competition-wise over three or four of the CS8 teams at present. Will definitely need to wait and see on the other matter. I will say that as it stands now, SHG would most likely have an easier path to the championship game in 3A than in 4A, and we know why. In 3A, JCA and IC would probably be battling it out in the north bracket (unless JCA is put in the lower bracket of 3A). In the north in 4A, you have a handful of teams (St. Francis, JCA (if they don't go 3A), and Richmond Burton) which most likely will be battling it out to win that bracket.
Forgot that. Thanks for the heads up. By the way, JCA in the Southern Bracket in 4A would be a hoot.
North would be more of a hoot. JCA, Morris, RB, and St Francis. That’s quite a quarterfinal round fight there. Whoever survives gets SHG in Champaign.
SHG real good. Rochester likely a notch below. If Morris drops to 4a, the north likely becomes better. Although either JC or Morris could get dropped south depending on other qualifiers, which would then shift strength to south if both of them went south.
Per the new playoff outlook from the IHSA, SHG is the smallest enrollment team in Class 4A at 607.00 (Johnsburg is at 595.5, but they are currently 1-3 and have some work to do in order to get 5 wins. They still have away games at both Plano and RB on their schedule in which they are probably not favored). Still a LONG way to go until the classes are decided however, so bubble-team fans will just have to wait and continue to cheer their teams on. The emphasis at present for all teams should be to win their remaining regular season games and let the post-season breakdown be what it will be.
All.... Fwiw and 3A I'm not all familiar with working preliminary numbers I have SHG once again in that class at this TIME. Still very early and I think when the 256 qualifiers are announced they go 4A. But if not I started a possible bracket of 16 for the Cyclones. I don't know the geography all that well as of yet, perennial playoff teams, and the new up and comers. Although I am learning.
SHG of course would be in the " southern bracket" of 16. A few schools that appear to be at this early stage in that grouping along with the Cyclones are Williamsville , Fairbury and Paxton. A work in progress. Ratsy
SHG of course would be in the " southern bracket" of 16. A few schools that appear to be at this early stage in that grouping along with the Cyclones are Williamsville , Fairbury and Paxton. A work in progress. Ratsy
Keep up the work, Rat. Interesting to play "what-if". As the playoffs get closer, I'm looking forward to your projections.
P.S.: After this week's games, we will undoubtedly see 0-5 teams pop up. UNLESS they have a chance to be a conference champ or end up the season at 4-5 (and have playoff points in the HIGH 40s at a minimum), it is probably safe to eliminate them FOR SURE from playoff consideration. It would also be interesting to see which teams have 4 losses after this week and look at the probabilities of them ending up with at least 5 losses by regular season's end. I do note however, that there always seems to be a load of 4-4 teams heading into week 9, not to mention the week 9 Saturday games which, in the past, have been of consequence on occasion if I remember correctly.
"Although I am learning". Do we have another Steve Soucie in the making?
It is by no means a sure thing, and they will need to keep several key players healthy, but I am predicting here and now that Wheaton Academy will win the 4A state championship two months from now.
Not if Sparta (STF) has something to say about it. Everything starts at the top and with the HC at WA… not a chance
Very interesting. Curious regarding the comment about the HC at WA. Are you saying the HC is a hindrance?
Doesn’t WA play IC in a few weeks? That will tell us a lot.
Who have they played this season that would back up this statement? WA currently has 13 playoff points, which is one of the lowest totals out there for teams in contention.
I could be totally wrong but I have a hard time believing they stay within 2-3 TDs of SF/JCA/RB.
That is a good question since they have not really been tested this year yet. In fact, it appears that through the entire regular season their only test will be IC Catholic. My thoughts follow.
A new coaching staff came on board a few years ago and they have been building. The head coach is very intelligent and the former Wheaton College head coach (Swider) is consulting. His son, Justin Swider, is the defensive coordinator. I attended last year's game against IC Catholic when Wheaton Academy was a bit awed by IC's team speed in the first quarter. After that they played IC very even for the remaining three quarters and lost by something like 11 points. They continued to improve over the remainder of the season and won their opening playoff game very impressively. Then Joliet Catholic loomed in the second round. Although WA was no match for JC in that game, I believe they played them tougher than any other team in the playoffs last year other than Richmond-Burton. RB clearly gave JC their toughest playoff game last year.
Going into the season this year I thought Marian Central Catholic (Woodstock) and Bishop McNamara would have tested Wheaton Academy by now. That was not the case. Bishop McNamara is way down this year. Marian Central Catholic is an average team and gave Wheaton Academy their best test so far. As I recall, WA was up by 35 points midway through the second quarter and toyed with MCC the rest of the way... a lot of substituting. This year's Wheaton Academy team seems! to be incredibly balanced. Great offense and great defense. On offense, an outstanding passing attack and an excellent rushing attack.
Until they are tested by IC Catholic no one knows for sure just how good Wheaton Academy is, including me. But I've had my eye on them for a couple years now and I'm impressed. If I want my prediction to be bold and provocative it needs to be made now. I can't wait until after they beat IC (if in fact that is the outcome) because then everyone will realize how good WA is. I do think Wheaton Academy will beat IC Catholic. I also think their offense is nearly as good as Sacred Heart-Griffin's and their defense is better. As mentioned by many others, 4A is packed with good teams this year. There are numerous championship contenders and I would certainly take the field over Wheaton Academy. Still, at the acknowledged risk of looking very foolish by the end of the season, I think Wheaton Academy is the best of the contenders and should be the favorite.
Hindering HC? Curious choice of words!
You said that, not me. You obviously
Know what I’m saying.
Good gracious, did he do something to you in a previous life?
Regardless of the lack of intellectual capacity and complete lack of leadership of the HC at WA (he's probably a complete turd), WA does have the 2014 Arena Football Coach of the Year as their OC (Steve Thonn, Cleveland Gladiators), the 77th winningest coach in NCAA history at any level as their DBs coach (Mike Swider, Wheaton College) and a longtime QB coach of Wheaton North and Naperville Central (JR Rexilius). This staff took a perennial 5-4/4-5 football team into at least a discussion as one of the better teams of 4A. Not sure if they're anywhere near the place to contend for it all, but time will tell.
If only that HC would get out of the way, WA might have a chance.
You know what, I agree with you.
aside from the HC, they do have a very good staff. Rex is a great coach.
still gotta get by Sparta…and as LZ proved last night, the football isn’t round for a reason.
great reply!
aside from the HC, they do have a very good staff. Rex is a great coach.
still gotta get by Sparta…and as LZ proved last night, the football isn’t round for a reason.
great reply!
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