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CS8 Prediction-Week 13

rocketnation

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Saturday 3 PM #1 Rochester (12-0) at #2 Murphysboro (11-1)
After three straight home contests, Rochester faces a road game against a perennial playoff team in Murphysboro. An afternoon high of 56 is projected, which is great for mid-November. Last year, the Red Devils lost in the Quarterfinals to SHG. In 2019, they were in the 4A championship game and lost to Richmond Burton. The Rockets have faced Murphysboro once before in the playoffs, winning at home in the 2nd round in 2015. At that time, the current players for both teams would've been playing in JFL. Murphysboro won 8 straight contests to start the season, including wins over 3A-5A playoff qualifiers Carbondale, Benton, Harrisburg, and Carterville. In Week 9, they suffered their only loss of the season to highly ranked 3A DuQuoin 39-7. The margin of this defeat was somewhat surprising, particularly after DuQuoin subsequently lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Murphysboro won handily in Week 10 over former CS8 school Taylorville and won narrowly the last two weeks, 14-13 over Charleston and 25-20 last week on the road in a rematch with Harrisburg. The Harrisburg win was decided on the game's final play with the Red Devils coming from behind to win on a 30-yard TD pass. Max Preps does not have individual stats for Murphysboro. I would expect them to have a run-first offense but to also have a capable QB. The Red Devils had one player make the coaches all state team and one more make honorable mention.

Rochester would love to have a start similar to the Quarterfinal contest last season at Carterville. Before a large and enthusiastic Lions crowd, the Rockets scored on the third play of the game when Parker Gillespie took a short pass 75 yards for a TD. Rochester was then able to build a 34-7 halftime lead, which quieted the home crowd considerably. The Rochester Defense has performed very well so far in the playoffs even while dealing with a few injuries, allowing no more than 14 points in any of the three games. The Offense has scored plenty of points but has also had too many turnovers and penalties. As Derek said after the Breese Central contest, the Offense can look great for four or five plays but then suddenly find itself facing a 3rd and 30. Bryan Zulauf and Gillespie have split snaps at QB since Parker returned from an injury in Week 8. Zulauf ran for over 100 yards and 4 TD's last week. Gillespie had a running TD as well. In Week 1 at Peoria, the Offense didn't have many big plays but avoided turnovers and had only a handful of penalties. Consistency from the Rocket offense will be a key factor in determining the outcome. Rochester 42 Murphysboro 14 (Cal Preps: Rochester 38 Murphysboro 14)
 
Looking at the strength of schedule and the scores in those games, I honestly think this is going to be similar to the year Rochester played Canton in a semifinal. It will be over fast. It will be ugly. There will be a bunch of Red Devils sobbing around that Sasquatch statue while a bunch of Rocket fans are drinking at Big Muddy Brewery.

Rochester has scored more in the first half this year than Murphreesboro has scored all season. There was considerable relief on the Rocket side of the field when we learned we would travel to Murphysboro rather than Harrisburg. That’s an extra two hours round trip. There was considerable disappointment when we learned the dream matchup would not happen in the state final as St. Laurence beat the snot out of IC Catholic.

I believe the score will be 49-21 with a running clock. The first team will get the clock running at 49–7. Rochester will put in its NEXT team (JV) and the Red Devil first team will score their last touchdown of their high school careers. I anticipate the Murphysboro next team scoring on the NEXT NEXT team (freshmen) late in the 4th.
 
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Looking at the strength of schedule and the scores in those games, I honestly think this is going to be similar to the year Rochester played Canton in a semifinal. It will be over fast. It will be ugly. There will be a bunch of Red Devils sobbing around that Sasquatch statue while a bunch of Rocket fans are drinking at Big Muddy Brewery.

Rochester has scored more in the first half this year than Murphreesboro has scored all season. There was considerable relief on the Rocket side of the field when we learned we would travel to Murphysboro rather than Harrisburg. That’s an extra two hours round trip. There was considerable disappointment when we learned the dream matchup would not happen in the state final as St. Laurence beat the snot out of IC Catholic.

I believe the score will be 49-21 with a running clock. The first team will get the clock running at 49–7. Rochester will put in its NEXT team (JV) and the Red Devil first team will score their last touchdown of their high school careers. I anticipate the Murphysboro next team scoring on the NEXT NEXT team (freshmen) late in the 4th.
It seems with a lot of Rochester playoff games the teams exchange a TD each and then in a blink of an eye the Rockets make a stop, then score, get a turnover and then score and make another stop with a score to follow. A game that was 7 to 7 in the middle of the 1st quarter is now 28-7 in the middle of the second quarter.

To put some numbers to the comparison of strength of schedules, Rochester's average margin of victory for the regular season and playoffs has hovered just north of 40 points. For Murphysboro, the margin of victory was 29 points during regular season. In the post season it has fallen to 18 points and if you remove the running clock on Taylorville the difference is only an average 3 points for its other two playoff victories.

I remember the Canton game for being cold and i believe this was one of the many games that the other team had deferred to the second half to only receive the second half kickoff facing a running clock. I think the most dominating semi final game was against Harrisburg. By half, it was 49 to 0 with Rochester holding Harrisburg to 47 yards of offense. In keeping with Rochester's MO for 2nd half running clocks, Rochester plays underclassmen and offense becomes running between the tackles. Only time the ball is in the air is when the tackled runner flips the ball to the ref. Final was 49 to 21.
 
Rochester 42 Murphysboro 14
Nolan Mrozowski ran for 3 TD's and Bryan Zulauf threw 3 TD's as the Rockets achieved a 42-0 running clock late in the 3rd quarter. Mason Jacobs had two receiving TD's and Parker Gillespie had one. Gillespie's TD started the running clock. Murphysboro played at a very deliberate pace throughout, with their QB coming to the sidelines after every play and taking the clock down to ten or less before getting the snap. That might have hurt the Red Devils at the end of the first half, when they had their best chance of scoring and then were behind only 21-0. However, there was no sense of urgency by their offense during the drive and they wasted a lot of time. At the Rochester 15 with less than 30 seconds in the half, Ednor Slot intercepted a deflected pass stopping the threat.

Rochester scored quickly after getting the 2nd half kickoff to go up 28-0. The Rockets then blocked punts on back-to-back possessions. Each time, this allowed them to start from inside Murphysboro's 25-yard line and have short TD drives. Another very good performance by the first team defense. Both Red Devil scores came against the reserves. While the offense still had some penalty issues, they did not have any turnovers and scored on all but one possession. The Rocket Seniors get to play in their first championship contest after losing their freshman year to COVID and having semifinal losses to SHG the last two years.
 
@rocketnation before you get to final game predictions. Obviously Rochester gets St. Laurence... did you have someone you wanted? One or the other? Super loaded question, but still a Q??
 
@rocketnation before you get to final game predictions. Obviously Rochester gets St. Laurence... did you have someone you wanted? One or the other? Super loaded question, but still a Q??
Going into the playoffs, Rochester had only ever played three teams in the North Bracket (Richmond Burton, Geneseo, and Phillips) and faced each only one time.

There had been a lot of talk about a possible Rochester-Elmhurst IC matchup. I saw IC in person at both the 2016 and 2017 3A finals roll over teams from our area. In 2018, Rochester could have played IC in the 4A final but lost to Bishop Mac in the semis. IC also won the 3A title last season, where Rochester prior to yesterday was last in a title game in 2019.

When St Laurence beat IC last week, that got my attention. But Wheaton's win over St Viator in the 2nd round of the playoffs was a good win IMO. St Laurence did play a tougher overall schedule. Not knowing much about either team, except that St Laurence has a big time RB, I didn't have a favored opponent yesterday. It should be a good game Friday.
 
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With the win against Murphysboro on Saturday, Rockets raised its record against the 618 to 23 and 1 from 2009. Only lose was to Althoff by 4 points in the Third Round of the 2015 playoffs. Average points scored is 47 while giving up 19.

I would have to believe that after each SI school wanting to beat its fieriest rival that Rochester would be number 2 on the list.

Hats off to the Murphysboro community coming together to show support for their team thru out town. Len Novara, AD Murphysboro, went above and beyond the call of duty in making preparations for hosting a semi final game. He is retiring at the end of this school year.

If Saturday was not exciting enough for Len, his daughter held her wedding on Saturday in Murphy. As a parent of a child that got married this past summer, i understand the lead time for planning a wedding. SInce, this is only the 2nd time Murphy has hosted semifinal game and 3rd appearance in semifinal round, this date must have been thought of being conflict free. It was both a beautiful day for a wedding and a football game.
 
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