CS8 Prediction Week 13

[rocketnation]

Friday 7 PM
Rochester (11-1) at SHG (12-0)

Recap of Week 1 Game: SHG was returning 15 starters from their 2021 4A runner-up team, including QB Ty Lott, all four starting WR’s on offense, and a good core of LB’s and DB’s on defense. Rochester had lost Hank Beatty and his 3,600 yards of total offense along with 49 total TD‘s to graduation. The Rockets were to return a total of 7 starters, which became 6 when a starting Offensive Lineman was lost for the season before it even began. I felt there was no path to a Rocket victory in Week 1, too much returning SHG experience coupled with the Rockets poor history at Ken Leonard Stadium (more on that later).

SHG jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead, Rochester rallied to within 27-21 in the 3rd Quarter, and then the Cyclones scored 35 of the last 41 points to win 62-27. Rochester lost the turnover battle 3-0 and stopped the SHG offense only once, when the Cyclones could only run a single play before halftime. The Rockets got some pressure on Ty Lott, but SHG was always able to convert on 3rd and even 4th and long. A pivotal play in the first half saw Ty Lott complete a 50 yard pass to Jake Hamilton on 4th and 15. Both the pass and catch were perfect. The positives for the Rockets were the play of QB Keeton Reiss making his 1st start and a solid effort by the Offensive Line.

Since Week 1, SHG has blitzed all their opponents, with the exception of a much tougher than expected 28-16 win at Waterloo in Week 11. Rochester has won 11 straight, most by running clocks. Both teams score lots of points but have defenses that have been stingy. The Cyclones often are able to score in just 2-4 plays and also have the ability to get TD’s both on kick and punt returns. SHG has not allowed any team to score more than 27 points. Led by Reiss and WR Parker Gillespie, the Rocket offense has scored more than 40 points in 10 of 12 games. After giving up 62 points to SHG, the Rocket defense has made significant improvements and was critical in wins over Chatham and Effingham.

So in Week 13, is there a path to a Rocket victory? Yes, but it’s a more narrow path than for SHG. What would a Rochester win look like? First, they need to break even or have fewer turnovers than the Cyclones. Second, the Rockets can’t allow any big SHG kickoff or punt returns. SHG got a huge momentum lift against Waterloo when trailing 9-0 in the 3rd Quarter, they got their first score on a kickoff return. Keshon Singleton is a threat on both kick and punt returns, and he is not their only return option. Finally, the defense has to get several stops to not force the offense into having to score every possession. Even when SHG scores, it will help the Rockets if they are forced to take 8-10 plays to do so.

What still makes the Rockets an underdog in Week 13? First, the SHG offense has so many weapons that it is extremely difficult to cover everyone. Trailing 25-7 in the first half of the semifinals last year, SHG started making one big play after another on offense and eventually wore out the Rocket defense. If anything, they are even more dangerous on offense this year. Second, for whatever reason, Rochester has a history of underperforming at Ken Leonard Stadium. Not only have the Rockets never won, I don’t think they’ve even led in a game since 2012. It seems like no sooner than finding my seat, the Cyclones have a 14-0 1st Quarter lead and it becomes an uphill struggle. Finally, you can’t underestimate how badly SHG wants to get back to Champaign in Ken’s last season to give him a chance at a 6th state title. One more win gets SHG that chance.

This has been one of my favorite Rocket teams. With only 17 Seniors, they have really exceeded my expectations. After Week 1, I thought 6-3 or 7-2 was possible. Not a bad record but that’s a down year for Rochester. After the Week 1 loss, they didn’t pout or blink. They’ve gotten better every week. Their leader is a 250 pound QB who mostly played defense until this season. This is still a fairly young team, with 11 Juniors starting along with 11 Seniors. I will be thrilled to be proven wrong with this prediction, but the Cyclones still have the advantage. SHG 45 Rochester 35.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... I like the Cyclones chances in this game. Ratsy

 

[rocketnation]

I wrote the term paper. Ratsy wrote the cliff notes. We ended up in the same place.

 

[The_Oldfan]

I'm thinking this game comes down to two issues. How well can Rochester pass on a clingy, theft-happy Cyclone secondary and how well Rochester can control that same group of Cyclones when they turn into a fast, sure- handed receiving corps.

I tend to see Lott and Reiss as almost canceling factors - a great passing QB who runs pretty well and a great running QB who passes surprisingly well.

Then there's the actual Cyclones running game. Sanders and Jackson are a fast, hard-hitting two headed monster whose rushing and scoring stats are limited by SHG's wide variety of offensive threats, tendency to score rapidly from a long way out and the starters limited playing time of less than three full quarters per game.

Another factor worth watching is kicking distance. Both kickers are very accurate on PATs, but Grove's ability to put most of his kickoffs in the endzone cuts into the opportunities for returns.

Even more simply:
SHG pros: speed, number of available playmakers, kicking distance, home field advantage

Rochester pros: Size. Run defense. Speed of play, which they do better than anyone else.

A high scoring shootout would benefit SHG, a lower scoring game would favor the Rockets.

Calpreps projects SHG 38, Rochester 28 (on a neutral field). For lack of any better I'll go with that.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Term papers with specifics tend or can end up on fan forum web sites for fodder. Calpreps has it SHG 38-28 and Massey 42-35. Anyone's game.... Ken Leonard said it best after the Cyclone/Red Devil game about this week. "Whoever goes out and executes will be playing for a state championship game." Ratsy

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

I give Rochester the edge in this one. Sorry folks, but SHG's performance at Waterloo DOES matter in terms of what they are capable of (or shall we say, not capable of) when things are not clicking for them. No way should they have gone down to Waterloo and played like they did. A better team would have jumped all over Waterloo and decided the game WAY BEFORE the 4th Quarter. In fact, by halftime the game should have been decided.

Rochester on the other hand endured a longer ride than SHG's trip to Waterloo, played before an excited city, not just a jacked-up football crowd, and decided the game before halftime against an 11-0, #1 seeded Carterville. In other words, they performed like a championship game-worthy team should. Given what they did on the road against Carterville, they in no manner will be affected by playing at a much, much, much closer Cyclone Stadium. I don't know if this will be decided by halftime, but what I and all fans of the two teams DO know is that SHG played like they did (or didn't) against a # 10 seed, and Rochester played like they did against a # 1 seed.

It's the second season, people, and thus far Rochester has the better of it performance-wise! Reality is sometimes hard to accept, but that's why I'm here.

 

[The_Oldfan]

I find your argument to be one of partisanship rather than analysis. Give us real reasons, not the belief that Rochester has magically improved throughout the season, but SHG has paradoxically managed to deteriorate, or at least remain static. What you refuse to acknowledge is that SHG outperformed Rochester against every common opponent, and generally more quickly.

As for Carterville of the SIRR vs Waterloo of the MVC, I admit that I overestimated Carterville based on the first two playoff games. That said, there can be little doubt that Waterloo's regular season schedule is significantly more challenging than Carterville's. What that might mean in terms of comparable quality is not definitive by any method I've ever heard of, but my feeling is that it is like comparing single game performance by one team playing Chatham and another team versus Springfield HS. Yet you are using 3/4 of one down game vs one great half of another game against a different team with a softer schedule make your prediction.

In any case, I have nothing else to add to this discussion. Roughly 57 hours from now the whole discussion will be moot anyway.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

I find your argument to be one of partisanship rather than analysis. Give us real reasons, not the belief that Rochester has magically improved throughout the season, but SHG has paradoxically managed to deteriorate, or at least remain static. What you refuse to acknowledge is that SHG outperformed Rochester against every common opponent, and generally more quickly.

As for Carterville of the SIRR vs Waterloo of the MVC, I admit that I overestimated Carterville based on the first two playoff games. That said, there can be little doubt that Waterloo's regular season schedule is significantly more challenging than Carterville's. What that might mean in terms of comparable quality is not definitive by any method I've ever heard of, but my feeling is that it is like comparing single game performance by one team playing Chatham and another team versus Springfield HS. Yet you are using 3/4 of one down game vs one great half of another game against a different team with a softer schedule make your prediction.

In any case, I have nothing else to add to this discussion. Roughly 57 hours from now the whole discussion will be moot anyway.

I'm discounting anything to do with the regular season. As I said, we are in a second (new) season and Rochester has played more consistently across their three games than SHG has. For heaven's sake, SHG was held SCORELESS for an entire half (the 1st half, by the way, not some end of the game junk time). SHG has shown they are capable of the type of game they had at Waterloo, Rochester hasn't.

 

[4Afan]

I'm discounting anything to do with the regular season. As I said, we are in a second (new) season and Rochester has played more consistently across their three games than SHG has. For heaven's sake, SHG was held SCORELESS for an entire half (the 1st half, by the way, not some end of the game junk time). SHG has shown they are capable of the type of game they had at Waterloo, Rochester hasn't.

Rochester also had 4 turnovers in the first half of a playoff game.

Interesting that you're choosing to leave out that SHG did not have their head coach during the Waterloo game. How would Rochester have done in that game they had 4 turnovers in the first half without Derek on the sideline?

 

[The_Oldfan]

Rochester also had 4 turnovers in the first half of a playoff game.

Interesting that you're choosing to leave out that SHG did not have their head coach during the Waterloo game. How would Rochester have done in that game they had 4 turnovers in the first half without Derek on the sideline?

Rochester was also outscored in the second half of the quarterfinal game and held on on the strength of their first half. I've been observing Derek Leonard long enough to doubt that he charitably took his foot off the gas without a running clock. What's it mean? I don't know. Maybe that Rochester players unused to four quarters of football per game encountered conditioning issues? Or not, but its an inconvenient fact.

 

[rocketnation]

Derek did have his QB take a knee at Carterville’s 1 yard line in the last minute, rather than get another score to pad the winning margin. Thought that was pretty charitable.

 

[The_Oldfan]

Congratulations to CS 8 players making the 2022 IHSFCA all state team.
SHG:Ty Lott, QB
Cory West,, LB/DK

Rochester, Keeton Reiss. QB

Jacksonville, Elijah Owens. QB

HONORABLE MENTION;
Maddix Morris,SHG, WE/SB

Jack Knudsen, Glenwood QB

All fine players, but I always question the preponderance of QBs on the coaches assn. All state. Where would all those QBS be with no one to block or catch their passes?

 

[rocketnation]

SJR Staff Prediction
SHG 38 Rochester 35

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Past stats. . Ratsy

By The Numbers: Leonard Bowl

Friday night Rochester and Sacred Heart Griffin will face off for the 16th time since 2010. We look at some of the number associated with the Leonard Bowl heading into the final meeting between Ken and

www.channel1450.com

 

[cigaros]

What I do love about this thread is everyone is using logic , facts, stats, and strength of schedule as aids in predicting/discussing the outcome. This counters what we've seen too often on other threads in which an over rated #1 seed, an under rated #10 seed, a single bad game by either side, or comparison of record vs ability to defend have tainted so many other threads regarding games leading up to this one.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... It will be interesting to see what size crowd decides to show up tomorrow night. Watching Edgy's third and Leng they alluded to the fact when the cold weather hit last week it really knocked down fan attendance. Game time forecast is 22 degrees with a 10mph wind. Cold but not nearly as bad as some of the stories given on the coldest past games thread. I know Murphysboro to Springfield is a pretty good drive but the Red Devil fans last week only brought maybe 200.

I have been asked by many if getting a seat will be difficult. A large crowd I don't know. K.L. Stadium holds 6600. (see below) 4600 in seating. Good seating on both sides of the field by the way. I have never seen a sell out. Gates open at 5:30. If one is willing to come early getting a very good seat shouldn't be hard to nab. I also heard on local radio although they would prefer digital tickets the school will sell at the gate. An extra buck that way but I recall reading that is per Ihsa guidelines.

If any way out of town diehards wanting to see a Friday night postseason game decide to come feel free to stop by the corner for a visit in the tailgate area. Just look for the SHG flag flying high and knock on the tent flap. (lol) Ratsy

Stadium

Welcome to Ken Leonard Field - home of SHG Cyclone Football. Completed in 2012, this state-of-the-art facility can comfortably accommodate over 4,600 fans in the stands and another 2,000 in a standing room only capacity.

www.shgfootball.org

 

[rocketnation]

I am technology challenged, but there is an excellent video on 1450.com about the 2 defensive coordinators who both have sons starting for them.

I think there will be another Buecker playing for Rochester next year.

 

[cornerrat]

I am technology challenged, but there is an excellent video on 1450.com about the 2 defensive coordinators who both have sons starting for them.

I think there will be another Buecker playing for Rochester next year.

All.... Ratsy

Even The Defense Has Strong Family Ties In The Last Leonard Bowl

Not only are Ken and Derek father and son and coaching against each other in the 4A semifinal, but there’s a few more family connections between Rochester and Sacred Heart Griffin. Both defensive coordinators have sons

www.channel1450.com

4A Semifinal Family Clash – Cyclones Host Rockets For A Trip To Champaign

Sacred Heart Griffin (12-0) will host Rochester (11-1) on Friday, November 18, 2022 at 7 pm in the 4A state semifinal for a trip to state next Friday in Champaign. This is the 15th overall meeting

www.channel1450.com

 

[rocketnation]

Final
SHG 56 Rochester 42
A fantastic start followed by a truly horrific 4th Quarter results in one of the most disappointing losses in program history. This one is much harder to accept than last year’s defeat, where Rochester led 25-7 early before eventually losing 49-42. SHG deserves a ton of credit for how they responded to adversity, but the Rocket collapse was hugely painful to watch and will be much discussed.

The Rockets played perfectly for the first 15 minutes and eventually led 28-0 early in the 2nd Quarter. Keeton Reiss ran for 4 TD’s on the night and the offense was moving the ball at will. Realistically, the defense, which was missing 2 key starters, was not going to hold SHG all night, but I hoped that they could at least force them into long drives taking time off the clock. Up 4 scores, the clock should be your friend. A few plays stand out in the 2nd Quarter. SHG righted the ship and scored to get to within 28-7. The Rochester kickoff team had to know an onside kick was coming but reacted slowly and SHG recovered and then scored again quickly to make it 28-14. Also thought the SHG score right before half to get to within 35-21 was very important. It seemed the Rocket defense might deny SHG or force a field goal attempt, but Ty Lott made a great pass and Keshon Singleton made a great catch.

Rochester still led 42-28 early in the 4th Quarter and had the ball around midfield when everything fell apart. And when things went bad, they spiraled and there was simply no coming back. An interception on Keeton’s one bad pass of the night was followed by a 1-play SHG scoring drive. On the next possession, the Rockets fumbled deep in their territory. SHG scored quickly again to tie the game. The offense was unable to convert and the defense wore out giving up both big running and passing plays. Kept hoping there might be one final momentum shift back our way before the end of the game, but SHG scored the final 28 points and the Rockets never threatened again.

Best of luck to the Cyclones next week in Champaign.

 

[cornerrat]

All... Banged up is the nature of the game. Cost the Cycs at least one trophy, Ratsy

 

[The_Oldfan]

Watching on NFHS. I was tearing my hair. My wife kept saying "there's plenty of time,"

 

[The_Oldfan]

All... Banged up is the nature of the game. Cost the Cycs at least one trophy, Ratsy

What surprised me was that, according to DL, Rochester wore out. I was concerned about SHG conditioning due to all the two quarter games. Instead it bit the other way.

 

[Autumnball]

Final
SHG 56 Rochester 42
A fantastic start followed by a truly horrific 4th Quarter results in one of the most disappointing losses in program history. This one is much harder to accept than last year’s defeat, where Rochester led 25-7 early before eventually losing 49-42. SHG deserves a ton of credit for how they responded to adversity, but the Rocket collapse was hugely painful to watch and will be much discussed.

The Rockets played perfectly for the first 15 minutes and eventually led 28-0 early in the 2nd Quarter. Keeton Reiss ran for 4 TD’s on the night and the offense was moving the ball at will. Realistically, the defense, which was missing 2 key starters, was not going to hold SHG all night, but I hoped that they could at least force them into long drives taking time off the clock. Up 4 scores, the clock should be your friend. A few plays stand out in the 2nd Quarter. SHG righted the ship and scored to get to within 28-7. The Rochester kickoff team had to know an onside kick was coming but reacted slowly and SHG recovered and then scored again quickly to make it 28-14. Also thought the SHG score right before half to get to within 35-21 was very important. It seemed the Rocket defense might deny SHG or force a field goal attempt, but Ty Lott made a great pass and Keshon Singleton made a great catch.

Rochester still led 42-28 early in the 4th Quarter and had the ball around midfield when everything fell apart. And when things went bad, they spiraled and there was simply no coming back. An interception on Keeton’s one bad pass of the night was followed by a 1-play SHG scoring drive. On the next possession, the Rockets fumbled deep in their territory. SHG scored quickly again to tie the game. The offense was unable to convert and the defense wore out giving up both big running and passing plays. Kept hoping there might be one final momentum shift back our way before the end of the game, but SHG scored the final 28 points and the Rockets never threatened again.

Best of luck to the Cyclones next week in Champaign.

I would like to thank you for your level headed analysis. Every week you have kept a clear eyed perspective toward all the conference teams and have been a true fan of the game. You perspective is very much been appreciated by us who love the high school game. Thank you once again.

 

[rocketnation]

I would like to thank you for your level headed analysis. Every week you have kept a clear eyed perspective toward all the conference teams and have been a true fan of the game. You perspective is very much been appreciated by us who love the high school game. Thank you once again.

Thanks, that’s very nice of you to say. I try my best, as a huge fan of high school football, to balance being a Rocket homer with being fair to other teams.

I’m already thinking ahead to next year. This season went by in the blink of an eye.

 

[The_Oldfan]

Thanks, that’s very nice of you to say. I try my best, as a huge fan of high school football, to balance being a Rocket homer with being fair to other teams.

I’m already thinking ahead to next year. This season went by in the blink of an eye.

That is sure the truth. We wait all year and even a 14 week season is always over too soon. The amount of work, sacrifice and physical suffering put in by coaches, players and staff in those three to four months is beyond belief, especially given the fact that the players are full time students (often very good ones) and for most of the coaches this is a second job with long hours and very little compensation.

I also second the appreciation of your balanced insight. Its not always easy for fans to cheer with their hearts but still think with their heads.

 

[rocketnation]

That is sure the truth. We wait all year and even a 14 week season is always over too soon. The amount of work, sacrifice and physical suffering put in by coaches, players and staff in those three to four months is beyond belief, especially given the fact that the players are full time students (often very good ones) and for most of the coaches this is a second job with long hours and very little compensation.

I also second the appreciation of your balanced insight. Its not always easy for fans to cheer with their hearts but still think with their heads.

Thanks, enjoyed your insight this season.

Next year it would be nice if we could get a contributor from another CS8 school.

 

[colin2229]

What happend to the SHG/Rochester thread?

 

[colin2229]

Thanks, enjoyed your insight this season.

Next year it would be nice if we could get a contributor from another CS8 school.

What are your thoughts on SHG moving forward without Coach Leonard? Any fall off?

 

[rocketnation]

What are your thoughts on SHG moving forward without Coach Leonard? Any fall off?

This is an outsider’s perspective. Also interested in what the SHG fans think.

A very experienced coaching staff remains and Ken’s replacement was promoted from within. It‘s definitely a change but don’t expect it to have a major impact. I’m 54 and SHG has had a strong football program my entire life.

If the Cyclones struggle at all next year, it may be because the 2022 team is very senior dominated and they will need to replace something like 16-18 starters that will have played in back to back state title games.

 

[pjjp]

Just a few thoughts to add to rocketnation's excellent analysis:

1. Seemed like Rochester was getting very good pressure on Lott early in the game. As the game progressed, SHG did a better job protecting him, which allowed the offense to take off.
2. Agreed that the SHG TD at the end of the 1st half was huge. One of the litmus tests for great teams, IMO, is the ability to overcome adversity, penalties etc. SHG had a very nice TD run by #24 Jackson (who is a stud btw) negated by a penalty. They quickly overcame it with the great pass and catch by Singleton.
3. It did seem like Rochester got away from their run game to a degree in the 2nd half. They didn't seem to go back to it until they were down. SHG then shut it down, when they had all the momentum on their side.
4. And obviously....the 2 turnovers in the 2nd half were killers for Rochester.

I'm guessing the game thread was flushed, because some got too critical of some of the coaching decisions. It seemed to me Rochester did everything they could to win the game against what was, quite honestly, a physically superior opponent. Everything went right for them early in the game, but eventually SHG's talent took over. JMHO.

 

[The_Oldfan]

What are your thoughts on SHG moving forward without Coach Leonard? Any fall off?

There will likely be some initial falloff just because SHG will be graduating around 15 starters including pretty much all of their skill guys.

But it's likely to be more of a pause to re-chamber than a full reload. There is a good Junior class, many of whom would have been starters on just about any other team in the conference and excellent promise among the Sophomores and Freshmen.


Coach Allison is Ken Leonard's picked successor and the current OC and many of the current coaches will stay on. As pointed out on another thread, Coach Leonard doesn't wear a headset or seemingly take an obvious role in routine playcalling..


Rochester and Chatham will both have a lot more starters back and should be the preseason favorites. As for the Cyclones, it'll depend on how quickly they mature but
I don't think a 7-2 or 6-3 would be out of the question

 

[The_Oldfan]

I'm guessing the game thread was flushed, because some got too critical of some of the coaching decisions. It seemed to me Rochester did everything they could to win the game against what was, quite honestly, a physically superior opponent. Everything went right for them early in the game, but eventually SHG's talent took over. JMHO.

Not their decisions. I"d guess but unfounded and unwarranted criticisms of character and wild accusations of their motivation.

 

[rocketnation]

Just a few thoughts to add to rocketnation's excellent analysis:

1. Seemed like Rochester was getting very good pressure on Lott early in the game. As the game progressed, SHG did a better job protecting him, which allowed the offense to take off.
2. Agreed that the SHG TD at the end of the 1st half was huge. One of the litmus tests for great teams, IMO, is the ability to overcome adversity, penalties etc. SHG had a very nice TD run by #24 Jackson (who is a stud btw) negated by a penalty. They quickly overcame it with the great pass and catch by Singleton.
3. It did seem like Rochester got away from their run game to a degree in the 2nd half. They didn't seem to go back to it until they were down. SHG then shut it down, when they had all the momentum on their side.
4. And obviously....the 2 turnovers in the 2nd half were killers for Rochester.

I'm guessing the game thread was flushed, because some got too critical of some of the coaching decisions. It seemed to me Rochester did everything they could to win the game against what was, quite honestly, a physically superior opponent. Everything went right for them early in the game, but eventually SHG's talent took over. JMHO.

All good points.

As if Rochester didn’t have enough of a challenge in stopping SHG, Ty Lott is much more of a threat to run this year. In the first half particularly, he kept plays alive by scrambling and avoiding sacks. Lott also sealed the Waterloo win with a 70 yard TD run.