Back by popular demand: my annual playoff mismatch rant

[ramblinman]

Most veterans of this football board are aware of my annual rant about playoff mismatches. For those of you who are new to the board, suffice it to say that I feel that the playoff classification system is flawed in that the competitive level from top to bottom in each class is too wide, and that produces too many mismatches. No, I do not have a better system to propose in its place. @stonedlizard does, though.

The following data pertains to the 128 first round football playoff games recently completed. The numbers in brackets reflect similar data from 2022, 2021, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

There were 52 [54, 56, 52, 52] games decided by margins of 30 points or greater. A total of 33 [36, 33, 32, 31] games finished with margins of 40 points or greater. An additional 59, [54, 38, 15, 20] teams scored fewer than 10 points.

Of 128 first round games, 17% [17%, 22%, 15%, 12%] were shutouts of any margin.

This year's numbers all look to be pretty similar to previous years with one exception. The 59 teams scoring fewer than 10 points is interesting. One might have thought that last year's 54 teams were an aberration to previous years. Now it looks like mid/hi-50s is the new normal. Sixty something if the upward trend continues next year.

Right now, I guarantee that a handful of you Einsteins out there are thinking something along the lines of, "But don't CPS schools contribute to way more than their fair share of these mismatches?" Yes, they do. So what? They are members of the IHSA, and it's not their fault that they are mismatched. Rather, it's the classification system's fault, and that's my point. And, for the record, it's not just CPS schools being blown out, and neither is it just private schools blowing out public schools.

The end.

Let the debate begin.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Appreciate this rant as I do I just ask what do we do?

 

[DMurph11]

Most veterans of this football board are aware of my annual rant about playoff mismatches. For those of you who are new to the board, suffice it to say that I feel that the playoff classification system is flawed in that the competitive level from top to bottom in each class is too wide, and that produces too many mismatches. No, I do not have a better system to propose in its place. @stonedlizard does, though.

The following data pertains to the 128 first round football playoff games recently completed. The numbers in brackets reflect similar data from 2022, 2021, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

There were 52 [54, 56, 52, 52] games decided by margins of 30 points or greater. A total of 33 [36, 33, 32, 31] games finished with margins of 40 points or greater. An additional 59, [54, 38, 15, 20] teams scored fewer than 10 points.

Of 128 first round games, 17% [17%, 22%, 15%, 12%] were shutouts of any margin.

This year's numbers all look to be pretty similar to previous years with one exception. The 59 teams scoring fewer than 10 points is interesting. One might have thought that last year's 54 teams were an aberration to previous years. Now it looks like mid/hi-50s is the new normal. Sixty something if the upward trend continues next year.

Right now, I guarantee that a handful of you Einsteins out there are thinking something along the lines of, "But don't CPS schools contribute to way more than their fair share of these mismatches?" Yes, they do. So what? They are members of the IHSA, and it's not their fault that they are mismatched. Rather, it's the classification system's fault, and that's my point. And, for the record, it's not just CPS schools being blown out, and neither is it just private schools blowing out public schools.

The end.

Let the debate begin.

The real debate I think is should there even be playoffs below 7A, and if so, should Loyola’s second string be allowed to compete as a stand alone entity or would that result in no other team having a chance of winning anything?

Debate and discuss below.

 

[4Afan]

Appreciate this rant as I do I just ask what do we do?

Go back to 6 classes.

 

[lurker74]

Appreciate this rant as I do I just ask what do we do?

That’s the thing. I really don’t think there is a fix.

Edited to add, i don’t think there is a fix, because i see no world where IHSA reduces the number of teams that make the playoffs.

 

[lurker74]

And even with fewer teams, there would still be s lot of blowouts

 

[DMurph11]

The real and correct answer is nothing. If you want to have a 256 team playoff divided by 8 classes, there are going to be mismatches. I bet many of those teams that lost handily will look back fondly on the fact that during the regular season they played well enough to qualify for the big dance. Just making the playoffs is a very big achievement for most programs in IL.

Yes there are massive discrepancies. But you’re going to find that across all 50 states at the high school level. It is found in basketball, baseball, volleyball.

The gap between team competency narrows at the college level, and then narrows even further at the professional level. That is the nature of HS school sports across the entire country.

 

[doctor_d]

There is no good solution. The best we can hope for is that the games are competitive in the later rounds as the have nots get weeded out.

In a properly seeded 32 (or 16) team bracket, the games should get more competitive as the rounds progress.

When a team continues to blow out the entire field is when I think there is a problem.

I would not be opposed to going to 6 or 7 classes, but I think that will happen right after pigs fly and that GrossNoises guy starts behaving appropriately.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Go back to 6 classes.

I don’t think it’ll happen and I don’t think the games will get any better - quality of football in the state is not great

 

[DMurph11]

I don’t think it’ll happen and I don’t think the games will get any better - quality of football in the state is not great

TLDR: Discrepancies are found everywhere. Eliminating them is impossible. If you want to minimize them create a 64 team playoff with teams decided by a committee… but even that is imperfect.
—————————————————————
Anytime you’re getting 256 deep in any state, there will be massive disparities. I don’t care if it’s Texas, California, Florida,
Ohio or Illinois.

Yes the 256th best team in any of those states probably tap dances on the 256th best team in Illinois, but their top ends are also much better. There’s a reason the IMGs, St. Thomas A, Mater Dei, John Bosco etc. of the world plays national schedules. I am sure if you look at first round high school football scores in states across the country there will be a massive score differential.

You want a competitive playoff? 64 teams, 8 teams in each class selected by a committee comprising the most awarded prep reporters in the state…EdgyTim, Michael O’Brien, Souc, etc.

But then you’ll get uproar from teams on the subjectivity, but in order to prevent massive first round blowouts you’re going to have to incorporate a massive element of eye test and subjectivity based on the best “experts” opinions.

…And I for one wouldn’t want that, let the teams that played weaker schedules qualify, eliminate geographies and rank every class 1-32 and then roll with it. I don’t think robbing CPS teams of making the playoff, regardless of outcomes, is a good move.

Yes some teams will get eliminated early, that even happens in 4 team college football playoffs…pretty sure Ohio State played Georgia better than TCU…it’s the nature of the beast.

 

[rocketnation]

-Reduce the playoff qualifiers to 16 per class.
-Week 10 would be a bye week for all playoff qualifiers. This could get some injured players back on the field. Playoffs start Week 11.
-Non playoff qualifiers would have the option of scheduling a one-time bowl game against a team within one class of theirs up/down in Week 10.

 

[mc140]

Just wait until we have predetermined classes and and first round matchups once districts get passed..

 

[mc140]

I do no think those involved at places like West Chicago and East Aurora care that Ramblinman does not get a more competitive first round match for Loyola.

 

[corey90]

And even with fewer teams, there would still be s lot of blowouts

Agree
Unless you really limit the teams to let’s say with records of 6-3. Then it’s another animal.

 

[4Afan]

Agree
Unless you really limit the teams to let’s say with records of 6-3. Then it’s another animal.

That's what the 6 class system was. It was 6-3 or better. I don't recall 5-4 teams getting in over the years but I'm sure it happened, but would have been few and far between and likely only conference winners.

 

[corey90]

In

That's what the 6 class system was. It was 6-3 or better. I don't recall 5-4 teams getting in over the years but I'm sure it happened, but would have been few and far between and likely only conference winners.

Exactly,
I don’t think there’s a perfect answer and you will always have someone unhappy but I have never been in favor of 4-5 teams making it in the playoffs. Heck 5-4 teams struggle. I know I know the conference you play in makes a difference. So what you should have had a better record. We can’t change the conference you’re in so unfortunately you have a winning record. Teams in tough conferences always say this makes them more playoff ready! Win enough games to make the playoffs to prove it.

 

[crusader_of_90]

I think I remember agreeing with you several years ago when I stoppped reading this thread.

But, it is needed for the new folks annually. Like the Wizzard of Oz and King Kong on network TV when I was a kid.

 

[cigaros]

1. Seed 1–32 across all classes.
2. 6 wins is the only way to get into the playoffs.


This will probably reduce the number of classes to 7 or 6. let’s take a seven class system. That would make 224 teams. if there are any more than 224 teams with six wins, put them in a playoff against the equal number of lower qualifying teams. Just like they do for the NFL in the NBA. Maybe we should call it something interesting… wild card. This will reduce the potential for injury on a majority of the teams. And it will increase the quality of play by eliminating the five and four teams which qualify in the past.

 

[cigaros]

Just wait until we have predetermined classes and and first round matchups once districts get passed..

Districts will never happen. It’s an asinine and pedestrian thought process based in zero foundation of logic.

 

[4Afan]

Districts will never happen. It’s an asinine and pedestrian thought process based in zero foundation of logic.

Tell me you don't know the IHSA without telling me you don't know the IHSA.

 

[mc140]

Tell me you don't know the IHSA without telling me you don't know the IHSA.

More about the Ads.

 

[cigaros]

Tell me you don't know the IHSA without telling me you don't know the IHSA.

Should districts pass, this will be further indicative Illinois does not care about a real championship. Districts are the dumbest thing to do to the playoffs. The absolute dumbest. It doesn’t save on travel. It doesn’t increase competition. It doesn’t create the parity they desire.

 

[William Foster]

Most veterans of this football board are aware of my annual rant about playoff mismatches. For those of you who are new to the board, suffice it to say that I feel that the playoff classification system is flawed in that the competitive level from top to bottom in each class is too wide, and that produces too many mismatches. No, I do not have a better system to propose in its place. @stonedlizard does, though.

The following data pertains to the 128 first round football playoff games recently completed. The numbers in brackets reflect similar data from 2022, 2021, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

There were 52 [54, 56, 52, 52] games decided by margins of 30 points or greater. A total of 33 [36, 33, 32, 31] games finished with margins of 40 points or greater. An additional 59, [54, 38, 15, 20] teams scored fewer than 10 points.

Of 128 first round games, 17% [17%, 22%, 15%, 12%] were shutouts of any margin.

This year's numbers all look to be pretty similar to previous years with one exception. The 59 teams scoring fewer than 10 points is interesting. One might have thought that last year's 54 teams were an aberration to previous years. Now it looks like mid/hi-50s is the new normal. Sixty something if the upward trend continues next year.

Right now, I guarantee that a handful of you Einsteins out there are thinking something along the lines of, "But don't CPS schools contribute to way more than their fair share of these mismatches?" Yes, they do. So what? They are members of the IHSA, and it's not their fault that they are mismatched. Rather, it's the classification system's fault, and that's my point. And, for the record, it's not just CPS schools being blown out, and neither is it just private schools blowing out public schools.

The end.

Let the debate begin.

While in agreement with your message, my reaction to seeing your annual post and reading your claim of ‘Back by popular demand’ can be comparable to Ralphie’s; and the decoder ring message to you the same medicine:

Be sure to drink your Ovaltine

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Most veterans of this football board are aware of my annual rant about playoff mismatches. For those of you who are new to the board, suffice it to say that I feel that the playoff classification system is flawed in that the competitive level from top to bottom in each class is too wide, and that produces too many mismatches. No, I do not have a better system to propose in its place. @stonedlizard does, though.

The following data pertains to the 128 first round football playoff games recently completed. The numbers in brackets reflect similar data from 2022, 2021, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

There were 52 [54, 56, 52, 52] games decided by margins of 30 points or greater. A total of 33 [36, 33, 32, 31] games finished with margins of 40 points or greater. An additional 59, [54, 38, 15, 20] teams scored fewer than 10 points.

Of 128 first round games, 17% [17%, 22%, 15%, 12%] were shutouts of any margin.

This year's numbers all look to be pretty similar to previous years with one exception. The 59 teams scoring fewer than 10 points is interesting. One might have thought that last year's 54 teams were an aberration to previous years. Now it looks like mid/hi-50s is the new normal. Sixty something if the upward trend continues next year.

Right now, I guarantee that a handful of you Einsteins out there are thinking something along the lines of, "But don't CPS schools contribute to way more than their fair share of these mismatches?" Yes, they do. So what? They are members of the IHSA, and it's not their fault that they are mismatched. Rather, it's the classification system's fault, and that's my point. And, for the record, it's not just CPS schools being blown out, and neither is it just private schools blowing out public schools.

The end.

Let the debate begin.

I'm sure your comment regarding private schools not being the only ones blowing out public schools will by viewed as heresy by some of the haters on this board.

 

[gobucsgo]

I am not sure that anything will really work . Look at state championship games. At best, 4 games within a TD. A couple games that might get a running clock. The IHSA isn’t going to lose gate money for fewer classes.

 

[crazylegs777]

Go back to 6 classes.

No.You'll still have blowouts.You have them in every state.In Tennessee top 4 in each region go to the playoffs.Some regions have 5 or 6 teams some 8 some 4 or 5.So you have 3-7 teams get in sometimes 2-8 & 6-4 or 5-5 teams staying at home.You get a 3-7 or 4-6 team in a real tough region will running clock a 7-3 team in the playoffs.Back in the day you had bloodbaths too.ESL each year would destroy Lincoln Way,Lockport,Romeoville(minus that 1 year Romeoville blew it),Danville,Pekin,East Moline in round 1 & CPS was more competitive it seemed & sometimes won,sometimes blown out & sometimes lose close because many didn't have a kicker.The 1981 Bogan team made the playoffs & earlier that year got blown out by a 1 win Illini 8 Bolingbrook team.With 8 minutes ish to go in the game they had a long pass play down inside the Brook 5 i think negated by a penalty.Coach Jurka went off & got 4 flags.He pulled his team off the field & left.Bolingbrook later forfeited for using an ineligible player

 

[crazylegs777]

And look at some of these teams.Argo,Lincoln,etc.They do the best they can & under the old format 6 classes 6 wins most likely would never get in.Here they get in & try to build their program.Chicago Kennedy made it recently & though blown out those kids can look back on this & have their name in the record books.Kennedy may never go again.Here is my favorite scenario.1987 CPS was on strike costing their teams from making the playoffs minus Lane Tech who i spoke about in another thread.Rich South got in at 6-3 & otherwise wouldn't have had CPS not been on strike.They had low playoff points.They got all the way to the semi finals

 

[stripes13]

I'm just a lowly man in stripes who needs to drop his pants to count to 21. My only vested interest is wanting to work great games. I'm a fan of one open class, and then 1A-7A. Also, apply the success factor to public schools as well as privates.

 

[eireog]

I'm just a lowly man in stripes who needs to drop his pants to count to 21. My only vested interest is wanting to work great games. I'm a fan of one open class, and then 1A-7A. Also, apply the success factor to public schools as well as privates.

Me too but I’d say two open classes. Say 8A and 4A.

 

[pjjp]

Also, apply the success factor to public schools as well as privates.

Of all the IHSA policies, this one galls me the most. The IHSA is essentially saying it's okay for public schools like Rochester to win numerous titles in a row in one class, but not okay for multiplied private schools to do the same. Not sure how any self-respecting public school fan can be okay with this selective application of the success factor.

 

[King MJ]

Curious what the stats look like if you just exclude CPS schools.

While a nice thought, reducing 5-4 teams doesn't solve the problem. 5-4 teams from top conferences aren't getting blown own

 

[4Afan]

Curious what the stats look like if you just exclude CPS schools.

While a nice thought, reducing 5-4 teams doesn't solve the problem. 5-4 teams from top conferences aren't getting blown own

Huh? I just counted 21 games across all classes that ended with margins of victor of at least 40 that didn't include CPS teams. There are more than a few 5-4 teams from "top conferences" getting blown out.

 

[lurker74]

Me too but I’d say two open classes. Say 8A and 4A.

I think people overestimate how popular the 'open' classes would be. Coaches, players, schools want titles, not to always play the best competition.

Not to beat a dead horse, but pretty much everyone would consider MC a "top 3" team in the state, and they don't move up from 7A. Teams can petition up now. How many do?

 

[McEvergreen]

I think the thing I dislike the most is when a higher seed in a huge mismatch has to burn a home game round one. Don't know how to fix it, but it sucks when they have to go on the road round two against a much better team.

 

[4Afan]

I think people overestimate how popular the 'open' classes would be. Coaches, players, schools want titles, not to always play the best competition.

Not to beat a dead horse, but pretty much everyone would consider MC a "top 3" team in the state, and they don't move up from 7A. Teams can petition up now. How many do?

Exactly this. MC has never petitioned up, neither has Rochester or Lena-Winslow, Driscoll never petitioned up. In the history of the IHSA football playoffs I think you can probably count on two hands the amount of teams that have voluntarily petitioned up.

Schools don't care about what people on a message board think. Championships at any level fill the trophy case, keep the stands full, boosters donating, and keeps the fans and administration happy.

 

[doctor_d]

No way to eliminate or substantially reduce blow outs unless you change 8 classes of 32 teams to 32 classes of 8 teams.

 

[JCHillmen]

Exactly this. MC has never petitioned up, neither has Rochester or Lena-Winslow, Driscoll never petitioned up. In the history of the IHSA football playoffs I think you can probably count on two hands the amount of teams that have voluntarily petitioned up.

Schools don't care about what people on a message board think. Championships at any level fill the trophy case, keep the stands full, boosters donating, and keeps the fans and administration happy.

Spot on. It's cool to see when teams petition up, but it often comes out as a net negative.

Loyola opting up last year was noble of them, but it denied us a MC/LA rematch.

ESL opting up to 6A is cool, but I think there are more teams that would give them a game at 5A to be honest.

Rita opting up to 7A is a headscratcher. They got beaten handily their last time in 5A and would have been fairly competitive in 5A and 6A this season and maybe been able to win a few games or make a run. Instead, they got walloped by MC.

The only schools where it makes sense to opt up may be a run of dominance or a clear "you should be competing in a higher class" feeling.

MC in 7A is it, but they don't opt up.

ESL should opt up, but they go as high as they can and 6A is questionably as deep as 5A.

The only others that probably should are Lena-Winslow, Rochester, and maybe IC. But I am already getting my popcorn for that IC-Rochester game in 4A, so I am happy they are both 4A.

 

[GhostOfTheGhhost]

If you believe the regular season should matter, then you need to seed the playoffs. If you seed the playoffs, you will get mismatches in the first round. If you don't believe the regular season should matter, like the Indiana High School Association, they you random draw the playoffs and you get top seeds playing each other in the first round. Pick your poison. Also, for the record, I don't think that the amount of classes should be reduced. I am all for more teams and kids being involved and having a chance to play for something. Don't forget that football teaches a ton of great life lessons, and the more kids that can get those lessons, the better. At least in my book.

 

[doctor_d]

I think people overestimate how popular the 'open' classes would be. Coaches, players, schools want titles, not to always play the best competition.

Not to beat a dead horse, but pretty much everyone would consider MC a "top 3" team in the state, and they don't move up from 7A. Teams can petition up now. How many do?

💯
I’ve heard quite a bit of talk here about “open class” and the rest of that rah rah bullshit.
Almost nobody petitions up. ESL does. IC did once. Phillips did back in the day. I think Loyola did once. Rita did for some reason. It’s a mirage. A pipe dream. There could be an open class right now if teams petitioned up.
These open class idealists must be hearing gross noises while drunk playing slots at the Coal City Shell station with all their focus on Quincy ND’s next loss.

 

[ramblinman]

Oh but there is a way to substantially reduce them. The problem is that people find it distasteful. It's too radical for them to embrace because they are so blinded by and used to our current enrollment based system that they fail to see the forest for the trees.

Imagine an 8A field that includes the most competitive teams in the state. Forget the how you get there part for the time being. Just imagine a field where the best 32 teams compete. Now think of 7A with the next most competitive 32 teams, and so on...

Once you envision it and embrace it if you like the concept of the best playing the best within each class, then look for ways to make it happen. The way to approach it is to imagine that you are tasked with creating the most competitive playoffs top to bottom within each class. Look at it like you are creating the first ever playoffs and that the enrollment based playoffs never existed. @stonedlizard created a system that gets us substantially there.
Would there still be blowouts? Sure. Would there be as many blowouts as we have in the current system? Not by a long shot. Would the playoffs be more exciting and competitive? I believe they would.