2023 Preseason Top Twenty

[Alexander32]

June has arrived and so has this poster's preseason top 20 teams.

1. Mount Carmel (The state's best in back-to-back seasons.)
2. Lincoln-Way East (Reasserts itself as 8A's best after just missing last year)
3. East St. Louis (Looking forward to the showdown with Mt. Carmel)
4. Loyola (New coach and new quarterback means a slight drop in the rankings.)
5. Nazareth (A young team has grown up.)
6. Batavia (This program seems to be its best when expectations are not too high.)
7. Marist (Just a very solid 8A program)
8. Cary-Grove (Looking for a huge rebound)
9. Maine South (Controversy makes them tougher) [Bolingbrook sure seemed scared.]
10. Prairie Ridge (This program never falls too far.)
11. Brother Rice (The transition to a new coach wasn't too rocky... at least in year one.)
12. St. Rita (A new coach, but there never seems to be much separation between St. Rita and Brother Rice)
13. York (A top-notch coach equals a top-notch team.)
14. Glenbard West (If not York, then Glenbard West wins the West Suburban Silver.)
15. Lockport (Perhaps ranked too high here)
16. Joliet Catholic (Same thing... perhaps too high here)
17. Wheaton North (The DuKane League is strong.)
18. Prospect (Has excellent prospects)
19. Lake Zurich (Either they or Warren deserve recognition here.)
20. Crete-Monee (Always seems to be hanging around on the fringe of the top twenty)

Rochester, Byron, and Lena-Winslow deserve special mention as the only programs in the state to reach the semifinals in each of the last five playoffs. IC Catholic's three championships in the last five playoffs is exceeded only by Lena-Winslow's four.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... With an enrollment drop to 1214.00 the Wolves could end up in 5A. They will definitely be a tough out in the northern bracket of 16 should that occur. A Nazareth /Prairie Ridge semi would be one fun game to watch.

Not having to possibly face the Flyers again in 6A is frosting on the 🎂 an wouldn't hurt as well. Ratsy

 

[chakazulu89]

Omitted:
Palatine
Kenwood
MP
St Francis
those teams definitely should be added to this list as Palatine could possibly be in top 5...
Too High:
Nazareth
Batavia
Cary Grove
BR
Maine South

 

[McCaravan]

Marist lost a ton. Switched the Green may ease up their schedule but they still have Loyola and BR on it. I’d put them in the 20’s.

 

[crusader_of_90]

I'd say by year's end, we will have either Edwardsville or O'Fallon on this list.

 

[Alexander32]

Omitted:
Palatine
Kenwood
MP
St Francis
those teams definitely should be added to this list as Palatine could possibly be in top 5...
Too High:
Nazareth
Batavia
Cary Grove
BR
Maine South

Although the Red-South is easily the best of the Chicago Public League conferences, you may be giving it more credit than it deserves. Simeon, Morgan Park and Kenwood finished 1-2-3 last year. Simeon lost to Crete-Monee by 23 points in the playoffs last year (round of 16). Morgan Park lost by 29 to Nazareth (quarterfinals). That is a lot of points to make up in a one-year period of time. They are all good teams, but we are talking top twenty here.

St. Francis has a good coach and will likely have an excellent team, but they are a 4A (possibly 5A) school. They would struggle against many of the larger schools in the state.

You are probably right about Palatine.

 

[rocketnation]

June has arrived and so has this poster's preseason top 20 teams.

1. Mount Carmel (The state's best in back-to-back seasons.)
2. Lincoln-Way East (Reasserts itself as 8A's best after just missing last year)
3. East St. Louis (Looking forward to the showdown with Mt. Carmel)
4. Loyola (New coach and new quarterback means a slight drop in the rankings.)
5. Nazareth (A young team has grown up.)
6. Batavia (This program seems to be its best when expectations are not too high.)
7. Marist (Just a very solid 8A program)
8. Cary-Grove (Looking for a huge rebound)
9. Maine South (Controversy makes them tougher) [Bolingbrook sure seemed scared.]
10. Prairie Ridge (This program never falls too far.)
11. Brother Rice (The transition to a new coach wasn't too rocky... at least in year one.)
12. St. Rita (A new coach, but there never seems to be much separation between St. Rita and Brother Rice)
13. York (A top-notch coach equals a top-notch team.)
14. Glenbard West (If not York, then Glenbard West wins the West Suburban Silver.)
15. Lockport (Perhaps ranked too high here)
16. Joliet Catholic (Same thing... perhaps too high here)
17. Wheaton North (The DuKane League is strong.)
18. Prospect (Has excellent prospects)
19. Lake Zurich (Either they or Warren deserve recognition here.)
20. Crete-Monee (Always seems to be hanging around on the fringe of the top twenty)

Rochester, Byron, and Lena-Winslow deserve special mention as the only programs in the state to reach the semifinals in each of the last five playoffs. IC Catholic's three championships in the last five playoffs is exceeded only by Lena-Winslow's four.

East St Louis is the only downstate school in the top 20, which isn't necessarily a huge surprise. How far outside the Top 20 would you place some of the downstate powers: Edwardsville, O'Fallon, Quincy (on the rise), Kankakee, Peoria, Morris, and Rochester? I'm omitting SHG from this list only because they are in a unique situation of an almost total rebuild from last season.

 

[chakazulu89]

Although the Red-South is easily the best of the Chicago Public League conferences, you may be giving it more credit than it deserves. Simeon, Morgan Park and Kenwood finished 1-2-3 last year. Simeon lost to Crete-Monee by 23 points in the playoffs last year (round of 16). Morgan Park lost by 29 to Nazareth (quarterfinals). That is a lot of points to make up in a one-year period of time. They are all good teams, but we are talking top twenty here.

St. Francis has a good coach and will likely have an excellent team, but they are a 4A (possibly 5A) school. They would struggle against many of the larger schools in the state.

You are probably right about Palatine.

Kenwood upgraded, MP is a veteran team now. Don't discount them this year. Having Nazareth as a top 10 team, is not going to happen. Naz struggles against the larger schools in the state as well.

 

[Cross Bones]

No DVC team
Cary Grove coming off of 3-6
No Warren

 

[cornerrat]

Kenwood upgraded, MP is a veteran team now. Don't discount them this year. Having Nazareth as a top 10 team, is not going to happen. Naz struggles against the larger schools in the state as well.

All..... The Roadrunners still are in a good position as it applies to class. With a drop in enrollment from 1244.93 they come in multiplied at 1180.575. That looks to be 5A again. Five wins or more and they will be a handful once again in postseason play. Rankings are fun but it's all about the playoffs. Ratsy

 

[Alexander32]

East St Louis is the only downstate school in the top 20, which isn't necessarily a huge surprise. How far outside the Top 20 would you place some of the downstate powers: Edwardsville, O'Fallon, Quincy (on the rise), Kankakee, Peoria, Morris, and Rochester? I'm omitting SHG from this list only because they are in a unique situation of an almost total rebuild from last season.

Although I didn't spend as much time on it, my next twenty looks like this:

21. Warren
22. St. Charles North
23. Rochester
24. Neuqua Valley
25. Edwardsville
26. Sycamore
27. Palatine
28. Willowbrook
29. IC Catholic
30. Plainfield North
31. St. Ignatius
32. Naperville Central
33. Fenwick
34. Byron
35. Simeon
36. Glenbrook South
37. Naperville North
38. Bolingbrook
39. Stevenson
40. Lena-Winslow (Probably too high but they deserve the recognition)

O'Fallon, Peoria and Morris would be near misses at this point. Being from Wheaton, I don't know the personnel on teams not in the Chicagoland area nearly as well as you do. I do know the playoff history pretty well though. I suspect Kankakee is moving in a downward direction, and would guess that Quincy and Collinsville have kind of reached their ceiling. I would rank Sacred Heart - Griffin higher than all three of those teams because even though they lost a lot of talent and their head coach, I imagine they will fill the ranks pretty well with talent that has served as backups until now. If you are inclined and haven't already done so (in a thread I've missed), I would be interested to see how you rank the teams not in the Chicagoland area. I always enjoy your posts.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Although the Red-South is easily the best of the Chicago Public League conferences, you may be giving it more credit than it deserves. Simeon, Morgan Park and Kenwood finished 1-2-3 last year. Simeon lost to Crete-Monee by 23 points in the playoffs last year (round of 16). Morgan Park lost by 29 to Nazareth (quarterfinals). That is a lot of points to make up in a one-year period of time. They are all good teams, but we are talking top twenty here.

St. Francis has a good coach and will likely have an excellent team, but they are a 4A (possibly 5A) school. They would struggle against many of the larger schools in the state.

You are probably right about Palatine.

I’m pretty sure St. Francis will be a 5A, unless I’m way off.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Although I didn't spend as much time on it, my next twenty looks like this:

21. Warren
22. St. Charles North
23. Rochester
24. Neuqua Valley
25. Edwardsville
26. Sycamore
27. Palatine
28. Willowbrook
29. IC Catholic
30. Plainfield North
31. St. Ignatius
32. Naperville Central
33. Fenwick
34. Byron
35. Simeon
36. Glenbrook South
37. Naperville North
38. Bolingbrook
39. Stevenson
40. Lena-Winslow (Probably too high but they deserve the recognition)

O'Fallon, Peoria and Morris would be near misses at this point. Being from Wheaton, I don't know the personnel on teams not in the Chicagoland area nearly as well as you do. I do know the playoff history pretty well though. I suspect Kankakee is moving in a downward direction, and would guess that Quincy and Collinsville have kind of reached their ceiling. I would rank Sacred Heart - Griffin higher than all three of those teams because even though they lost a lot of talent and their head coach, I imagine they will fill the ranks pretty well with talent that has served as backups until now. If you are inclined and haven't already done so (in a thread I've missed), I would be interested to see how you rank the teams not in the Chicagoland area. I always enjoy your posts.

Collinsville should NEVER be in this discussion.

 

[rocketnation]

Although I didn't spend as much time on it, my next twenty looks like this:

21. Warren
22. St. Charles North
23. Rochester
24. Neuqua Valley
25. Edwardsville
26. Sycamore
27. Palatine
28. Willowbrook
29. IC Catholic
30. Plainfield North
31. St. Ignatius
32. Naperville Central
33. Fenwick
34. Byron
35. Simeon
36. Glenbrook South
37. Naperville North
38. Bolingbrook
39. Stevenson
40. Lena-Winslow (Probably too high but they deserve the recognition)

O'Fallon, Peoria and Morris would be near misses at this point. Being from Wheaton, I don't know the personnel on teams not in the Chicagoland area nearly as well as you do. I do know the playoff history pretty well though. I suspect Kankakee is moving in a downward direction, and would guess that Quincy and Collinsville have kind of reached their ceiling. I would rank Sacred Heart - Griffin higher than all three of those teams because even though they lost a lot of talent and their head coach, I imagine they will fill the ranks pretty well with talent that has served as backups until now. If you are inclined and haven't already done so (in a thread I've missed), I would be interested to see how you rank the teams not in the Chicagoland area. I always enjoy your posts.

I have the opposite problem. Once we get past the Top 5 or so schools from the Chicagoland area, I tend to not know the others nearly as well and only see them play when they make it to a state title game. Looking at your 21-40, I think I see 5 more Downstate schools, which I define as any outside of Cook and the Collars (which is not perfect because that definition covers everything from Rockford to Carbondale). Quincy is a Downstate team that could be very dangerous this year. It's unfortunate for them that they are likely to be in 6A with East St Louis. I'd also say that 5A runner-up Peoria has enough coming back to be somewhere in the preseason 21-30 ranking. The Week 1 game between Rochester and Peoria should be very competitive.

 

[Illini0909]

Although I didn't spend as much time on it, my next twenty looks like this:

21. Warren
22. St. Charles North
23. Rochester
24. Neuqua Valley
25. Edwardsville
26. Sycamore
27. Palatine
28. Willowbrook
29. IC Catholic
30. Plainfield North
31. St. Ignatius
32. Naperville Central
33. Fenwick
34. Byron
35. Simeon
36. Glenbrook South
37. Naperville North
38. Bolingbrook
39. Stevenson
40. Lena-Winslow (Probably too high but they deserve the recognition)

O'Fallon, Peoria and Morris would be near misses at this point. Being from Wheaton, I don't know the personnel on teams not in the Chicagoland area nearly as well as you do. I do know the playoff history pretty well though. I suspect Kankakee is moving in a downward direction, and would guess that Quincy and Collinsville have kind of reached their ceiling. I would rank Sacred Heart - Griffin higher than all three of those teams because even though they lost a lot of talent and their head coach, I imagine they will fill the ranks pretty well with talent that has served as backups until now. If you are inclined and haven't already done so (in a thread I've missed), I would be interested to see how you rank the teams not in the Chicagoland area. I always enjoy your posts.

Hersey is easily top 40 if not top 25

 

[olderbytheminute]

June has arrived and so has this poster's preseason top 20 teams.

1. Mount Carmel (The state's best in back-to-back seasons.)
2. Lincoln-Way East (Reasserts itself as 8A's best after just missing last year)
3. East St. Louis (Looking forward to the showdown with Mt. Carmel)
4. Loyola (New coach and new quarterback means a slight drop in the rankings.)
5. Nazareth (A young team has grown up.)
6. Batavia (This program seems to be its best when expectations are not too high.)
7. Marist (Just a very solid 8A program)
8. Cary-Grove (Looking for a huge rebound)
9. Maine South (Controversy makes them tougher) [Bolingbrook sure seemed scared.]
10. Prairie Ridge (This program never falls too far.)
11. Brother Rice (The transition to a new coach wasn't too rocky... at least in year one.)
12. St. Rita (A new coach, but there never seems to be much separation between St. Rita and Brother Rice)
13. York (A top-notch coach equals a top-notch team.)
14. Glenbard West (If not York, then Glenbard West wins the West Suburban Silver.)
15. Lockport (Perhaps ranked too high here)
16. Joliet Catholic (Same thing... perhaps too high here)
17. Wheaton North (The DuKane League is strong.)
18. Prospect (Has excellent prospects)
19. Lake Zurich (Either they or Warren deserve recognition here.)
20. Crete-Monee (Always seems to be hanging around on the fringe of the top twenty)

Rochester, Byron, and Lena-Winslow deserve special mention as the only programs in the state to reach the semifinals in each of the last five playoffs. IC Catholic's three championships in the last five playoffs is exceeded only by Lena-Winslow's four.

I have no argument with these picks other than I think Warren will rule the North Suburban this year and Lake Zurich will have some slippage.
That said, here are three observations:
1) Listing the top 20 teams actually could be interpreted in two ways. This poster clearly chose what he thinks the top 20 teams in the state would be if everyone played a 500-game round-robin schedule. What that does of course is eliminate all the small schools who may be every bit as dominant in their class as, say EStL and MtC are in theirs. A preseason list. of top 20 teams could also be construed as listing the top 20 teams most likely to be playing at ISU in late November and that list would surely include some of the 1A, 2A 3A and 4A powerhouses. But again, this list makes perfect sense and fits the criteria so no complaint here.
2) Given this list, it's clear that the football rich are going to remain rich in 2023 again, as the picks suggest Mt.Carmel will win 7A, L-W East or Loyola 8A, EStL 6A and Naz 5A or 4A this fall. That, I think, is a huge huge problem. In the fall of 2020, there was no youth football, so kids who were in grades 7 and 8 then will be high school sophomore and juniors this fall and kids who didn't play football as freshmen in the spring of 2021 will be seniors this fall. I have no proof, just hearsay from coaches with participation numbers way down that believe that when kids got out of the football routine that they found other ways to occupy their free time. As a result, numbers of players at many schools are down, causing schools that perhaps used to play varsity, JV, sophomore, freshman A and freshman B are. now playing maybe two levels. From what coaches have told me, that's a direct result of getting out of the routine of playing football and finding other fun ways to spend time.
3) The "transfer" "portal" at the high school level I think is no longer as big a deal as it used to be. I think elite football prospects are "discovered" as elite when they are playing lightweight and heavyweight youth football, and families move into districts that give their sons the best possible opportunity to be considered a college prospect. As a result, I think families of top-end gridders are moving into districts before their son enters high school and they are choosing schools that have incredibly strong programs. That makes the gap between great programs and average programs much bigger than it was a decade ago. I am not picking on any school here for real, just using the following as an example. I don't think a kid is nothing special in youth football or doesn't play youth football, and enrolls at Maine West or Maine East. Then, after three seasons there, it's obvious the kid is loaded with talent and the family relocates to the Maine South district for his senior year. I don't think that happens much anymore. I think the top-end kids are ID'd in youth football, and the family. relocates to a top football high school before the kid enrolls as a freshman. So,l in summary, I believe the top-end programs are going to thrive and more and more ordinary programs are going to struggle just to survive. But, we'll see.

 

[Alexander32]

I have no argument with these picks other than I think Warren will rule the North Suburban this year and Lake Zurich will have some slippage.
That said, here are three observations:
1) Listing the top 20 teams actually could be interpreted in two ways. This poster clearly chose what he thinks the top 20 teams in the state would be if everyone played a 500-game round-robin schedule. What that does of course is eliminate all the small schools who may be every bit as dominant in their class as, say EStL and MtC are in theirs. A preseason list. of top 20 teams could also be construed as listing the top 20 teams most likely to be playing at ISU in late November and that list would surely include some of the 1A, 2A 3A and 4A powerhouses. But again, this list makes perfect sense and fits the criteria so no complaint here.
2) Given this list, it's clear that the football rich are going to remain rich in 2023 again, as the picks suggest Mt.Carmel will win 7A, L-W East or Loyola 8A, EStL 6A and Naz 5A or 4A this fall. That, I think, is a huge huge problem. In the fall of 2020, there was no youth football, so kids who were in grades 7 and 8 then will be high school sophomore and juniors this fall and kids who didn't play football as freshmen in the spring of 2021 will be seniors this fall. I have no proof, just hearsay from coaches with participation numbers way down that believe that when kids got out of the football routine that they found other ways to occupy their free time. As a result, numbers of players at many schools are down, causing schools that perhaps used to play varsity, JV, sophomore, freshman A and freshman B are. now playing maybe two levels. From what coaches have told me, that's a direct result of getting out of the routine of playing football and finding other fun ways to spend time.
3) The "transfer" "portal" at the high school level I think is no longer as big a deal as it used to be. I think elite football prospects are "discovered" as elite when they are playing lightweight and heavyweight youth football, and families move into districts that give their sons the best possible opportunity to be considered a college prospect. As a result, I think families of top-end gridders are moving into districts before their son enters high school and they are choosing schools that have incredibly strong programs. That makes the gap between great programs and average programs much bigger than it was a decade ago. I am not picking on any school here for real, just using the following as an example. I don't think a kid is nothing special in youth football or doesn't play youth football, and enrolls at Maine West or Maine East. Then, after three seasons there, it's obvious the kid is loaded with talent and the family relocates to the Maine South district for his senior year. I don't think that happens much anymore. I think the top-end kids are ID'd in youth football, and the family. relocates to a top football high school before the kid enrolls as a freshman. So,l in summary, I believe the top-end programs are going to thrive and more and more ordinary programs are going to struggle just to survive. But, we'll see.

Your first point is accurate and has merit. I did try to give some of the smaller schools the recognition they deserve in the brief paragraph following the top 20.

 

[DeanOfSelection]

MC lost way too much. Shouldn't even be ranked.

 

[greatgig13]

CG at 8? On intel or just by name? Ain’t seeing it.

 

[Wittymoniker1]

I have no argument with these picks other than I think Warren will rule the North Suburban this year and Lake Zurich will have some slippage.
That said, here are three observations:
1) Listing the top 20 teams actually could be interpreted in two ways. This poster clearly chose what he thinks the top 20 teams in the state would be if everyone played a 500-game round-robin schedule. What that does of course is eliminate all the small schools who may be every bit as dominant in their class as, say EStL and MtC are in theirs. A preseason list. of top 20 teams could also be construed as listing the top 20 teams most likely to be playing at ISU in late November and that list would surely include some of the 1A, 2A 3A and 4A powerhouses. But again, this list makes perfect sense and fits the criteria so no complaint here.
2) Given this list, it's clear that the football rich are going to remain rich in 2023 again, as the picks suggest Mt.Carmel will win 7A, L-W East or Loyola 8A, EStL 6A and Naz 5A or 4A this fall. That, I think, is a huge huge problem. In the fall of 2020, there was no youth football, so kids who were in grades 7 and 8 then will be high school sophomore and juniors this fall and kids who didn't play football as freshmen in the spring of 2021 will be seniors this fall. I have no proof, just hearsay from coaches with participation numbers way down that believe that when kids got out of the football routine that they found other ways to occupy their free time. As a result, numbers of players at many schools are down, causing schools that perhaps used to play varsity, JV, sophomore, freshman A and freshman B are. now playing maybe two levels. From what coaches have told me, that's a direct result of getting out of the routine of playing football and finding other fun ways to spend time.
3) The "transfer" "portal" at the high school level I think is no longer as big a deal as it used to be. I think elite football prospects are "discovered" as elite when they are playing lightweight and heavyweight youth football, and families move into districts that give their sons the best possible opportunity to be considered a college prospect. As a result, I think families of top-end gridders are moving into districts before their son enters high school and they are choosing schools that have incredibly strong programs. That makes the gap between great programs and average programs much bigger than it was a decade ago. I am not picking on any school here for real, just using the following as an example. I don't think a kid is nothing special in youth football or doesn't play youth football, and enrolls at Maine West or Maine East. Then, after three seasons there, it's obvious the kid is loaded with talent and the family relocates to the Maine South district for his senior year. I don't think that happens much anymore. I think the top-end kids are ID'd in youth football, and the family. relocates to a top football high school before the kid enrolls as a freshman. So,l in summary, I believe the top-end programs are going to thrive and more and more ordinary programs are going to struggle just to survive. But, we'll see.

I would hope underdog St. Rita could give ESL a game, if these two programs met in the playoffs.

 

[epicbret]

Cool where is Edgys

 

[cornerrat]

I’m pretty sure St. Francis will be a 5A, unless I’m way off.

All.... That is correct at 1130.75 they will be 5A. Here is something that the Hilltopper faithful might watch all season long. It's way to early predict but with the addition of some new power teams that look to go 5A and end up in the northern bracket JCA could get pushed down into the southern bracket. It doesn't happen often the last time 2019. That would make things interesting for the southern folk. Ratsy

 

[crusader_of_90]

Shane James Jamison, 6’7 274, 25’ east side high school , O line / student athlete

 

[Tork13]

All.... With an enrollment drop to 1214.00 the Wolves could end up in 5A. They will definitely be a tough out in the northern bracket of 16 should that occur. A Nazareth /Prairie Ridge semi would be one fun game to watch.

Not having to possibly face the Flyers again in 6A is frosting on the 🎂 a wouldn't hurt as well. Ratsy

5A could be a gauntlet with several teams moving into that class. PR moving down, JC, St. Francis moving up from 4a. Along with Naz , Morris, Sycamore, and several other quality programs in the mix. I’m probably missing a couple great teams as well.

 

[cornerrat]

All..... I track the historical data trying to get a feel on class enrollments. The last few years there has been a subtle change, Not much but enough to make a difference.
I have Morris at 848.00 on the cut line leaning to 4A.

The variables on movement for these schools are many.

1. A team coming out of nowhere. A non traditional winner having a surprise great season.
2. An unusually high number of teams in a class or two who qualify causing a major shift among the eight.
3. CPL teams. Very difficult as a rule to track who makes the postseason.

Magnify that by those eight classes and bubble teams can go anywhere. A one or two team shift in 8A could have consequences in oh say 2A.I have mentioned before when the preseason class designations come out there will not be many eye openers. But as the season progresses and schools drop out of playoff contention then it starts. Look for major movement in weeks 7, 8, and 9. Ratsy

 

[Alexander32]

CG at 8? On intel or just by name? Ain’t seeing it.

You would know the personnel far better than I would, so I will defer to your judgment. Still, I will provide my thinking.

When evaluating some high school teams in the preseason, it is best to look at the players (returning talent). When evaluating other teams, it is best to look at program history and evaluate the current state of the program in the context of that history. This second set of teams generally does an excellent job of developing players to suit their specific style of play. It is not that the level of talent is irrelevant; but it is not as important. Cary-Grove falls into the second set of teams.

Brad Seaburg has an .813 winning percentage in the 12 seasons he has been head coach. That includes a 28-8 record in the playoffs. That is an outstanding winning percentage, particularly when one considers he must go up against Prairie Ridge every year and deep playoff runs also result in difficult games. Two of his eight playoff losses have been to Prairie Ridge. Cary-Grove has made it to the semifinals five times, the championship game four times, and won the championship two times in Seaburg's 12 seasons. The program is very solid. However, coming off a 3-6 season one must still evaluate the current state of the program.

The 2021 state champions were a senior laden team that meant the following season would likely show regression. I believe the entire starting 11 on offense, and 8 out of the 11 on defense were seniors that 2021 season. Nevertheless, the regression to 3-6 was more severe than I had anticipated. On closer examination though, there were only two games where Cary-Grove seriously underperformed. Those were the games against Jacobs and Hampshire. They were very competitive in the other games. But, now, it is time to look at the historical context.

The two worst seasons (prior to last year) under Seaburg's tenure were 2013 and 2017. In both of those years Cary-Grove had a 6-3 regular season record and lost in the second round of the playoffs. The question, then, is, how did the program respond the following year? In 2014 Cary-Grove went 9-0 during the regular season and lost in the championship game of the playoffs (13-1 overall). In 2018 they went 9-0 during the regular season and won the state championship (14-0 overall). There is at least some evidence suggesting Cary-Grove will bounce back nicely.

Each new season is full of uncertainties and I readily admit there is no guarantee Cary-Grove will have an excellent season. Nonetheless, based on the analysis just given, I am predicting they will have such a season.

 

[greatgig13]

You would know the personnel far better than I would, so I will defer to your judgment. Still, I will provide my thinking.

When evaluating some high school teams in the preseason, it is best to look at the players (returning talent). When evaluating other teams, it is best to look at program history and evaluate the current state of the program in the context of that history. This second set of teams generally does an excellent job of developing players to suit their specific style of play. It is not that the level of talent is irrelevant; but it is not as important. Cary-Grove falls into the second set of teams.

Brad Seaburg has an .813 winning percentage in the 12 seasons he has been head coach. That includes a 28-8 record in the playoffs. That is an outstanding winning percentage, particularly when one considers he must go up against Prairie Ridge every year and deep playoff runs also result in difficult games. Two of his eight playoff losses have been to Prairie Ridge. Cary-Grove has made it to the semifinals five times, the championship game four times, and won the championship two times in Seaburg's 12 seasons. The program is very solid. However, coming off a 3-6 season one must still evaluate the current state of the program.

The 2021 state champions were a senior laden team that meant the following season would likely show regression. I believe the entire starting 11 on offense, and 8 out of the 11 on defense were seniors that 2021 season. Nevertheless, the regression to 3-6 was more severe than I had anticipated. On closer examination though, there were only two games where Cary-Grove seriously underperformed. Those were the games against Jacobs and Hampshire. They were very competitive in the other games. But, now, it is time to look at the historical context.

The two worst seasons (prior to last year) under Seaburg's tenure were 2013 and 2017. In both of those years Cary-Grove had a 6-3 regular season record and lost in the second round of the playoffs. The question, then, is, how did the program respond the following year? In 2014 Cary-Grove went 9-0 during the regular season and lost in the championship game of the playoffs (13-1 overall). In 2018 they went 9-0 during the regular season and won the state championship (14-0 overall). There is at least some evidence suggesting Cary-Grove will bounce back nicely.

Each new season is full of uncertainties and I readily admit there is no guarantee Cary-Grove will have an excellent season. Nonetheless, based on the analysis just given, I am predicting they will have such a season.

That’s a pretty good analysis. I guess I’m not close enough anymore to know what the buzz is about this program. Hell, I didn’t see 2021 coming so I’m no expert. Just felt top ten was a little bold of a prediction after last year but we’ll see.

 

[St.Louisfootball]

I have no argument with these picks other than I think Warren will rule the North Suburban this year and Lake Zurich will have some slippage.
That said, here are three observations:
1) Listing the top 20 teams actually could be interpreted in two ways. This poster clearly chose what he thinks the top 20 teams in the state would be if everyone played a 500-game round-robin schedule. What that does of course is eliminate all the small schools who may be every bit as dominant in their class as, say EStL and MtC are in theirs. A preseason list. of top 20 teams could also be construed as listing the top 20 teams most likely to be playing at ISU in late November and that list would surely include some of the 1A, 2A 3A and 4A powerhouses. But again, this list makes perfect sense and fits the criteria so no complaint here.
2) Given this list, it's clear that the football rich are going to remain rich in 2023 again, as the picks suggest Mt.Carmel will win 7A, L-W East or Loyola 8A, EStL 6A and Naz 5A or 4A this fall. That, I think, is a huge huge problem. In the fall of 2020, there was no youth football, so kids who were in grades 7 and 8 then will be high school sophomore and juniors this fall and kids who didn't play football as freshmen in the spring of 2021 will be seniors this fall. I have no proof, just hearsay from coaches with participation numbers way down that believe that when kids got out of the football routine that they found other ways to occupy their free time. As a result, numbers of players at many schools are down, causing schools that perhaps used to play varsity, JV, sophomore, freshman A and freshman B are. now playing maybe two levels. From what coaches have told me, that's a direct result of getting out of the routine of playing football and finding other fun ways to spend time.
3) The "transfer" "portal" at the high school level I think is no longer as big a deal as it used to be. I think elite football prospects are "discovered" as elite when they are playing lightweight and heavyweight youth football, and families move into districts that give their sons the best possible opportunity to be considered a college prospect. As a result, I think families of top-end gridders are moving into districts before their son enters high school and they are choosing schools that have incredibly strong programs. That makes the gap between great programs and average programs much bigger than it was a decade ago. I am not picking on any school here for real, just using the following as an example. I don't think a kid is nothing special in youth football or doesn't play youth football, and enrolls at Maine West or Maine East. Then, after three seasons there, it's obvious the kid is loaded with talent and the family relocates to the Maine South district for his senior year. I don't think that happens much anymore. I think the top-end kids are ID'd in youth football, and the family. relocates to a top football high school before the kid enrolls as a freshman. So,l in summary, I believe the top-end programs are going to thrive and more and more ordinary programs are going to struggle just to survive. But, we'll see.

The transfer portal is as bad as it’s ever been down south from what I see.

 

[micahjones]

🎢 six flags (Warren) have reloaded with key returners + additional skill players from lower level. Warren remains the top program in NSC. They have a talent pool from youth program and Freshmen & JV teams were stacked. McNulty keeps sophomores on varsity so there is never a talent drop off. They may ride below the hype teams this year. Warren easily will be one of the top 8A programs this fall. One of the great games of the year will be Warren & MS week two. Get your popcorn ready. You will see some physical & passionate football. Stay tuned !

 

[Alexander32]

I have no argument with these picks other than I think Warren will rule the North Suburban this year and Lake Zurich will have some slippage.
That said, here are three observations:
1) Listing the top 20 teams actually could be interpreted in two ways. This poster clearly chose what he thinks the top 20 teams in the state would be if everyone played a 500-game round-robin schedule. What that does of course is eliminate all the small schools who may be every bit as dominant in their class as, say EStL and MtC are in theirs. A preseason list. of top 20 teams could also be construed as listing the top 20 teams most likely to be playing at ISU in late November and that list would surely include some of the 1A, 2A 3A and 4A powerhouses. But again, this list makes perfect sense and fits the criteria so no complaint here.
2) Given this list, it's clear that the football rich are going to remain rich in 2023 again, as the picks suggest Mt.Carmel will win 7A, L-W East or Loyola 8A, EStL 6A and Naz 5A or 4A this fall. That, I think, is a huge huge problem. In the fall of 2020, there was no youth football, so kids who were in grades 7 and 8 then will be high school sophomore and juniors this fall and kids who didn't play football as freshmen in the spring of 2021 will be seniors this fall. I have no proof, just hearsay from coaches with participation numbers way down that believe that when kids got out of the football routine that they found other ways to occupy their free time. As a result, numbers of players at many schools are down, causing schools that perhaps used to play varsity, JV, sophomore, freshman A and freshman B are. now playing maybe two levels. From what coaches have told me, that's a direct result of getting out of the routine of playing football and finding other fun ways to spend time.
3) The "transfer" "portal" at the high school level I think is no longer as big a deal as it used to be. I think elite football prospects are "discovered" as elite when they are playing lightweight and heavyweight youth football, and families move into districts that give their sons the best possible opportunity to be considered a college prospect. As a result, I think families of top-end gridders are moving into districts before their son enters high school and they are choosing schools that have incredibly strong programs. That makes the gap between great programs and average programs much bigger than it was a decade ago. I am not picking on any school here for real, just using the following as an example. I don't think a kid is nothing special in youth football or doesn't play youth football, and enrolls at Maine West or Maine East. Then, after three seasons there, it's obvious the kid is loaded with talent and the family relocates to the Maine South district for his senior year. I don't think that happens much anymore. I think the top-end kids are ID'd in youth football, and the family. relocates to a top football high school before the kid enrolls as a freshman. So,l in summary, I believe the top-end programs are going to thrive and more and more ordinary programs are going to struggle just to survive. But, we'll see.

It may be fun to look at some rankings along the lines expressed in "Olderbytheminute's" first observation above [dominance within class levels]. The rankings below are not a prediction for the coming season (though they could probably serve that role adequately). They are based on a strict series of criteria and are designed to reflect a football program's dominance over the past six years (five playoffs, since no playoffs were held in 2020) within their respective class levels. These are the criteria listed in the order of application:

1) Number of state championships won during the last six years
2) Number of semifinal appearances during the last six years
3) Most recent state championship (if won in the last six years)
4) Most recent semifinal appearance (if no championship was won in the last six years)
5) Class level (with the higher class levels listed first)

The class level displayed is not (necessarily) the class level the team is expected to play in for the 2023 season. It is the class level the team played in the last time it made a semifinal appearance. Using Lena-Winslow as an example, the explanation of the notation to the right of the school name is that they won four championships in the last six years, had five semifinal appearances in the last six years, and last won the championship in 2022. They played in class 1A in 2022.

1. Lena-Winslow 4-5-2022 (1A)
2. IC Catholic 3-4-2022 (3A)
3. Rochester 2-5-2019 (4A)
4. Loyola 2-4-2022 (8A)
5. Mount Carmel 2-4-2022 (7A)
6. Nazareth 2-4-2022 (5A)
7. Lincoln-Way East 2-4-2019 (8A)
8. East St. Louis 2-3-2022 (6A)
9. Cary-Grove 2-2-2021 (6A)
10. Joliet Catholic 2-2-2021 (4A)
11. Gibson City 2-2-2018 (2A)
12. Byron 1-5-2021 (3A)
13. St. Teresa 1-4-2022 (2A)
14. Richmond-Burton 1-3-2019 (4A)
15. Forreston 1-3-2018 (1A)
16. Batavia 1-3-2017 (7A)
17. Prairie Ridge 1-3-2017 (6A)
18. Sacred Heart-Griffin 1-2-2022 (4A)
19. Williamsville 1-2-2019 (3A)
20. Sterling Newman Central Catholic 1-2-2019 (2A)

Those were the 20 most dominant programs over the last six years within the class level(s) in which they played. Here are the remaining teams that either won a championship or reached the semifinals at least twice in the last six years.

21. Lockport 1-1-2021 (8A)
22. Wheaton North 1-1-2021 (7A)
23. Fenwick 1-1-2021 (5A)
24. Wilmington 1-1-2021 (2A)
25. Monticello 1-1-2018 (3A)
26. Phillips 1-1-2017 (5A)
27. St. Rita 0-3-2022 (7A)
28. Maroa-Forsyth 0-3-2022 (2A)
29. Marist 0-3-2021 (8A)
30. Brother Rice 0-3-2021 (7A)
31. Lake Zurich 0-2-2022 (7A)
32. Sycamore 0-2-2022 (5A)
33. Morris 0-2-2022 (5A)
34. Providence 0-2-2022 (4A)
35. Tolono Unity 0-2-2022 (3A)
36. Downs Tri-Valley 0-2-2022 (2A)
37. Camp Point Central 0-2-2022 (1A)
38. Colfax-Ridgeview-Lexington 0-2-2022 (1A)
39. Maine South 0-2-2021 (8A)
40. Crete-Monee 0-2-2021 (6A)
41. Nashville 0-2-2021 (2A)
42. Moweaqua Central A&M 0-2-2021 (1A)
43. Athens 0-2-2019 (1A)
44. Sterling 0-2-2018 (5A)

 

[Coach Percy]

CPL 2023 TOP 10

1. Kenwood
2. Morgan Park
3. Simeon
4. Taft
5. Phillips
6. Lane
7. Westinghouse
8. Payton
9. Amundsen
10. Perspectives

 

[WSC_FootballFan]

Lyons Township will definitely be a top 20 team all season and should compete for WSC championship

 

[Quags57]

🎢 six flags (Warren) have reloaded with key returners + additional skill players from lower level. Warren remains the top program in NSC. They have a talent pool from youth program and Freshmen & JV teams were stacked. McNulty keeps sophomores on varsity so there is never a talent drop off. They may ride below the hype teams this year. Warren easily will be one of the top 8A programs this fall. One of the great games of the year will be Warren & MS week two. Get your popcorn ready. You will see some physical & passionate football. Stay tuned !

Six Flags goes nowhere again until they clean up their stupid penalties. It has beeen costly for years.

 

[olderbytheminute]

Six Flags goes nowhere again until they clean up their stupid penalties. It has beeen costly for years.

I can agree with you regarding the ill-advised penalties that have jumped up and bitten the Blue Devils in recent years.
That said, there is, I believe, zero reason to believe that that Blue Devils will NOT be the dominant football team in Lake County in 2023. The changing demographics feeding into Stevenson High I suspect are changing that program which is the only other 8A program in the county that is meaningful in football.
Warren's school district is geographically huge, and there are opportunities to move into the district that do not cost two arms and two legs, which means many parents with a talented middle-school-age football player can move into the Warren district at a lower cost than, let's say, moving to Lake Forest or Libertyville or Stevenson or Highland Park or Deerfield, etc.
So, as of now and I suspect into the future, Warren can be a so-called collector school for talented young football players in Lake County. There is nothing illegal about that and Warren does not have to recruit talented players. It's a destination school for talented football players.
When you add to that the thought that the varsity head coach is really, really good and that the school's academic reputation is not in the dumpster, and you have a situation where recruiting doesn't have to be done by Warren.
I predict that if you are in the stands watching an eighth-grade heavyweight division football game in the county and you see a kid on a team that is really really good, that while that kid may not currently live in the Warren High School district, that parents of other kids in the stands would tell that star kid's parents that they really need to move to Warren so the kid will get maximum coaching and maximum exposure to colleges.
For top-end young football players in the county, I suspect that Warren is the destination school. Can they win a state title? Reality says the school has yet to develop a Division 1-calibre passing QB which in today's world, is a negative.
I actually thought that when the kid who is currently a QB at the University of Minnesota in the Big Ten Conference transferred from Carmel to his home city of Antioch, that an opportunity for Warren to win a state title had eluded them. The kid went to Antioch and developed his many skills, but the team was never a state-title threat in his three years there. At Warren, it might have been different. But who knows?

 

[atrain97]

You would know the personnel far better than I would, so I will defer to your judgment. Still, I will provide my thinking.

When evaluating some high school teams in the preseason, it is best to look at the players (returning talent). When evaluating other teams, it is best to look at program history and evaluate the current state of the program in the context of that history. This second set of teams generally does an excellent job of developing players to suit their specific style of play. It is not that the level of talent is irrelevant; but it is not as important. Cary-Grove falls into the second set of teams.

Brad Seaburg has an .813 winning percentage in the 12 seasons he has been head coach. That includes a 28-8 record in the playoffs. That is an outstanding winning percentage, particularly when one considers he must go up against Prairie Ridge every year and deep playoff runs also result in difficult games. Two of his eight playoff losses have been to Prairie Ridge. Cary-Grove has made it to the semifinals five times, the championship game four times, and won the championship two times in Seaburg's 12 seasons. The program is very solid. However, coming off a 3-6 season one must still evaluate the current state of the program.

The 2021 state champions were a senior laden team that meant the following season would likely show regression. I believe the entire starting 11 on offense, and 8 out of the 11 on defense were seniors that 2021 season. Nevertheless, the regression to 3-6 was more severe than I had anticipated. On closer examination though, there were only two games where Cary-Grove seriously underperformed. Those were the games against Jacobs and Hampshire. They were very competitive in the other games. But, now, it is time to look at the historical context.

The two worst seasons (prior to last year) under Seaburg's tenure were 2013 and 2017. In both of those years Cary-Grove had a 6-3 regular season record and lost in the second round of the playoffs. The question, then, is, how did the program respond the following year? In 2014 Cary-Grove went 9-0 during the regular season and lost in the championship game of the playoffs (13-1 overall). In 2018 they went 9-0 during the regular season and won the state championship (14-0 overall). There is at least some evidence suggesting Cary-Grove will bounce back nicely.

Each new season is full of uncertainties and I readily admit there is no guarantee Cary-Grove will have an excellent season. Nonetheless, based on the analysis just given, I am predicting they will have such a season.

The other issue in 2022 was that besides the lack of returning starters, the injury bug got them last year. All three returning starters from the were out by, I believe the 5th or 6th game of the year. With them, I think they would have finished 6-3. 5-4 and still made the playoffs. That would have made this year look a lot better.

I would expect a much improved season, but they will still be very young, but talented.

 

[crusader_of_90]

How lucky we are to have 1 v 3 to start off the shenanigans of 2023!

Who says nothing good comes from trash-talking?

 

[Mrkankakee]

It seems to me people are forgetting about Kankakee! Kankakee has the top OL prospect in the state in Marques Easley! With a backfield that is loaded and a defense that is reloading with talent Kankakee will be a team to reckoned with come playoff time!

 

[Mrkankakee]

Although I didn't spend as much time on it, my next twenty looks like this:

21. Warren
22. St. Charles North
23. Rochester
24. Neuqua Valley
25. Edwardsville
26. Sycamore
27. Palatine
28. Willowbrook
29. IC Catholic
30. Plainfield North
31. St. Ignatius
32. Naperville Central
33. Fenwick
34. Byron
35. Simeon
36. Glenbrook South
37. Naperville North
38. Bolingbrook
39. Stevenson
40. Lena-Winslow (Probably too high but they deserve the recognition)

O'Fallon, Peoria and Morris would be near misses at this point. Being from Wheaton, I don't know the personnel on teams not in the Chicagoland area nearly as well as you do. I do know the playoff history pretty well though. I suspect Kankakee is moving in a downward direction, and would guess that Quincy and Collinsville have kind of reached their ceiling. I would rank Sacred Heart - Griffin higher than all three of those teams because even though they lost a lot of talent and their head coach, I imagine they will fill the ranks pretty well with talent that has served as backups until now. If you are inclined and haven't already done so (in a thread I've missed), I would be interested to see how you rank the teams not in the Chicagoland area. I always enjoy your posts.

Kankakee is going up instead of down! The kids are hungry from a disappointing second round exit in last year’s playoffs! Kankakee is fast, athletic, and strong! A triple threat that can cause problems for opposing teams! Nazareth will be barometer test to see how good Kankakee will be! Kankakee is going to be a team no one wants to see come playoff time!

 

[chakazulu89]

It seems to me people are forgetting about Kankakee! Kankakee has the top OL prospect in the state in Marques Easley! With a backfield that is loaded and a defense that is reloading with talent Kankakee will be a team to reckoned with come playoff time!

They lost me last year after that opening 2-0 loss to Nazareth. I was expecting a lot from that team that had returnees from that state final appearance the year before...

 

[Alexander32]

Kankakee is going up instead of down! The kids are hungry from a disappointing second round exit in last year’s playoffs! Kankakee is fast, athletic, and strong! A triple threat that can cause problems for opposing teams! Nazareth will be barometer test to see how good Kankakee will be! Kankakee is going to be a team no one wants to see come playoff time!

We often hear players described as difference-makers. Kankakee lost a difference-maker in their head coach. Having lost such an outstanding coach, it is hard for me to believe they will be better than last year. He built up the program, so I'm certainly not suggesting they will fall apart in one year. I expect them to be quite good in 2023, but no better than last year. After that I expect there will be a slow gradual decline. They play in a rather poor conference, other than Crete-Monee, so they should have no problem obtaining the necessary wins to continue making the playoffs. Being successful in the playoffs is a different matter.

We shall see. I wish them well.