Is Carmel Catholic back?

[ramblinman]

Bowing out in the 5A second round at 7-4 last year, the Corsairs completed their first winning season since 2014.

This year, CCHS has a nice 2-0 start against traditionally above average public school opponents (Crete Monee and Lake Forest), but they have some challenging CCL/ESCC crossover games coming up against Mt Carmel, Providence and Notre Dame.

If they ARE back, I can see them finishing the regular season at 6-3 at worst. If they can string together back-to-back winning seasons, I think we can officially call this a turnaround. If not, then last year was a blip. Hope it's the former and not the latter.

 

[DadCoachSports]

I believe they are on their way back!

They have at least 3 former NFL players on their coaching staff.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Should get to 4-0 and then the schedule gets real with Mt Carmel and Providence. Good for coach McKie.

 

[eagles2k3]

I did notice those two scores. Solid wins. Would love to see a resurgence from this program.

 

[ramblinman]

Resurrecting this thread from last year.

Through week 6 this year, Carmel is 3-3, with their last three games against DePaul Prep, Loyola and Fenwick. Given those final three opponents, I think finishing at 5-4 is a long-shot for them. Their best chance of finishing at 4-5, and hoping the numbers fall their way to qualify for the playoffs, is by beating a 5-1 DePaul this weekend, and that is definitely not a gimme for the Corsairs.

 

[CCHS-Fan]

No gimmie vs. DePaul Prep!

DePaul Prep, currently sitting at 5-1, has all the momentum this season and is also the host team. Gonna be a tough game. And this Friday’s contest will make or break the 2024 post-season for the Corsairs, IMO. A CCHS win sets them up for a big wk9 game against the Friars, on the road, so I’m conceding the ‘L’ already vs. the Ramblers, the toughest of the remaining opponents on the Corsairs schedule.

At 4-5 however, the Corsairs may still be a solid at-large qualifier, setting them up for a wk10 #1 seed as their reward. Not ideal, but it gives the team a good target (making the playoffs).

I’ve done some granular inspection, and this is lengthy.

Through week (6):

Carmel Catholic sits at (35) playoff points currently.
Final playoff points total of (47) is my conservative prediction, by adding the points in parentheses below (12) from predicted CCHS opponents wins for remaining games, respectively. (35)+(12) = (47).

This is assuming finishing with a 4-5 record, by defeating either DePaul Prep or Fenwick. For the predictions below, I have CCHS defeating DePaul Prep (our best chance for a win with remaining opponents).

(3) games are wild cards, IMO.

Can Montini Catholic defeat St. Ignatius in wk8?
Can Loyola Academy defeat Mount Carmel in wk9?
Can DePaul Prep defeat Benet Academy in wk9?

Depending on the results of the wild card games listed above, these (3) games can potentially push Carmel Catholic’s playoff points total to (48), (49), or even (50). A strong number.

(47) total playoff points as a worst-case scenario would still be at the top end of potential 4-5 teams, which would give CCHS a ‘punchers’ chance to claim a playoff spot for wk10.

And a CCHS win against DePaul Prep or Fenwick would give them (16)+ tie breaker points as an at-large 4-5 team, which would also be a strong number. This tie-breaker is the total combined wins of defeated opponents.

——————————————————————
Grayslake Central (1)
Remaining:
Grant/Round Lake/Antioch

Lake Forest (2)
Remaining:
Waukegan/Libertyville/Mundelein

Providence Catholic (1)
Remaining:
Loyola Academy/Marian Catholic/Joliet Catholic

St. Laurence (1)
Remaining:
St. Patrick/Brother Rice/Montini

Marian Catholic (1)
Remaining:
St. Francis/Providence Catholic/De La Salle

Montini Catholic (2)
Remaining:
St. Viator/St. Ignatius/St. Laurence

DePaul Prep (0)
Remaining:
Carmel/St. Francis/Benet Academy

Loyola Academy (2)
Remaining:
Providence Catholic/Carmel/Mount Carmel

Fenwick (2)
Remaining:
Benet Academy/Mount Carmel/Carmel
——————————————————————
Total = (12)

In addition, IHSA 2024 Playoffs Tracking:

This is data through wk5. I completed this yesterday (Sunday 10/6), without the aid of wk6 official results.

(492) teams (based on my research, which may be off a little) are eligible in the current IHSA playoff outlook.

If applying simple math, which may not be exact in the end, at least 50% of those (492) teams should make the playoffs at 5-4 or better. The resulting number is (246), on the low end (exactly 50%). (492)/(2) = (246).

(256)-(246) = (10) spots available, and this total may be altered a little too, based on actual qualifiers and the CPL situation (contraction of eligible conference representatives).

Below, through wk5, these teams (across all classes) have at least (30) playoff points (17 teams total, currently). I tagged (30)+ playoff points as my line-of-demarcation. Some of these teams lost this past week (wk6) and are already eliminated (sixth loss). CCHS should stay at the top end of this list through season’s end, IMO.

(34) Conant (0-5)
(32) Chicago Mount Carmel (4-1)
(32) Wheaton Warrenville South (2-3)
(32) Alton (0-5)
(31) Carmel Catholic (3-2)
(31) Joliet Catholic (3-2)
(31) Chicago Clark (2-3)
(31) Lane Tech (2-3)
(31) Glenbard West (1-4)
(31) Herrin HS (0-5)
(30) Morris (4-1)
(30) Plainfield North (2-3)
(30) St. Charles East (2-3)
(30) Oak Park River Forest (1-4)
(30) Elmwood Park (0-5)
(30) Granite City (0-5)
(30) Rock Island (0-5

This list will shrink as teams become official qualifiers or get eliminated with a sixth loss.

A successful ‘23 season, CCHS finished 8-1 with a competitive schedule, and only (39) total playoff points. They’re almost at that total through wk6 already (35).

I like our chances for the playoffs - if we can get that (1) additional victory.