If the PLAYOFFS started today... (Week 5)

[Catch--22]

Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. I take care of that before proceeding.

My adjustments.....

The Lincoln Prairie, Suburban Prairie East, Central Suburban North, and West Suburban Gold conferences were not in the playoff field. I inserted their conference leaders, Cumberland (1A), Plainfield East (7A), Highland Park (7A), and Morton (8A) into the playoff field. Every champ goes to the post-season if the league has 6 or more teams, and I accounted for that. This gave us 260 teams.

I need to eliminate 4 teams. 27 teams are tied at the cutoff, at 2-2 with 18 playoff points. 17 of those teams were in the original field, and 10 were not. So, essentially Team 239 to Team 266 are all the same. And the cutoff is 256. Kill me now!

Here we go! The 17 teams are Salt Fork 1A, Rckfd Luth 1A, Auburn 2A, Fairfield 2A, Mendon Unity 2A, St Joe Og 2A, Erie-PTown 2A, Hillsb 3A, Frnkft 3A, S'western 3A, Winneb 3A, Marengo 4A, Sprngfld 6A, Rckfd East 6A, Elgin 8A, Bellv East 8A, and SCE 8A.
--- FIRST TIE-BREAKER is combined wins of all defeated opponents. Everyone had at least 2 except for Salt Fork, Rock Luth, Frnkfrt, S'westrn, Winnebago, and Rock East, The other teams are safe, and we move on with these 6 teams.
--- SECOND TIE-BREAKER is head-to-head. None yet among these 6 teams.
--- THIRD TIE-BREAKER is the number of playoff teams on your schedule. Salt Fork has 3, Rock Luth has 4, and the other 4 teams have 5. Salt Fork and Rock Luth are ELIMINATED. We continue with 4 teams, looking for the top 2.
--- FOURTH TIE-BREAKER is number of wins by the playoff teams on your schedule, Rock East has 16, Winnebago and Southwestern have 15, and Frankfort has 14. Rock East survives. Frankfort is ELIMINATED. We continue with 2 teams, looking for 1.
--- FIFTH TIE-BREAKER is points allowed in games against teams that qualified for the playoffs. Southwestern has played 2 and allowed 52. Winnebago has played 2 and allowed 77. Southwestern is in, Winnebago is ELIMINATED.

If the tie-breaker runs this deep next week, I'm retiring the post. LOL

Now I just need to adjust the classes to balance them at 32 teams each. My current field has classes 31-32-30-32-32-32-34-33. This exercise can show teams on the bubble between two classes. They might go up and down all season long. BCC went down to 1A, Lisle down to 2A, East Alton, Clark, and Dyett down to 3A, Morris, Centralia, and Providence down to 4A, Centenniel, Grays Central, and Prairie Ridge down to 5A, Geneva, Yorkville, and Collinsville down to 6A, Ed'ville down to 7A

THAT'S IT!

I'm skipping the biggest/smallest schools in each class for now. Maybe I'll edit them in later. If those of you familiar with this post can take care of the newbies who wonder "how can you RANK Wheeling ahead of Cary-Grove", I'd really appreciate it. I'll check back in later.

* is the smallest team in the class
^ is the biggest team in the class

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Morton at #1 York
#17 Naperville North at #16 Minooka
#25 Hinsdale Central at #8 Conant
#24 Oak Park at #9 Lane Tech

#29 Elgin at #4 Lincoln-Way East
#20 Bartlett at #13 Naperville Central
#28 Curie at #5 Loyola
#21 Oswego East at #12 Bolingbrook

Lower Bracket
#31 St. Charles East at #2 Glenbard West
#18 Lockport at #15 Palatine
#26 Maine South at #7 Glenbrook South
#23 Marist at #10 O'Fallon

#30 Belleville East at #3 Lyons
#19 Huntley at #14 Homewood-Flossmoor
#27 Oswego at #6 South Elgin
#22 Neuqua Valley at #11 Warren


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Plainfield East at #1 Mt. Carmel
#17 Mundelein at #16 Reavis
#25 Batavia at #8 Rolling Meadows
#24 Lincoln-Way West at #9 Downers North

#29 Hoffman Estates at #4 Hersey
#20 Bradley-Bourbannais at #13 Lincoln Park
#28 Andrew at #5 Plainfield North
#21 Brother Rice at #12 Edwardsville

Lower Bracket
#31 Highland Park at #2 Elk Grove
#18 Argo at #15 Moline
#26 Schaumburg at #7 Hononegah
#23 St. Rita at #10 St. Charles North

#30 Proviso West at #3 Prospect
#19 Buffalo Grove at #14 Glenbard East
#27 Stagg at #6 Jacobs
#22 Glenbard North at #11 Wheaton North


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Rockford East at #1 Wauconda
#9 Crystal Lake South #8 Notre Dame
#13 Von Steuben at #4 Geneva
#12 Kenwood at #5 St. Ignatius

#15 Lake Zurich at #2 Grayslake North
#10 Guilford at #7 Riverside-Brookfield
#14 DeKalb at #3 Belvidere North
#11 Cary-Grove at #6 Wheeling

Lower Bracket
#16 Springfield at #1 Glenwood
#9 Danville at #8 Eisenhower
#13 Rock Island at #4 Lemont
#12 Bloomington at #5 Normal West

#15 Oak Forest at #2 Yorkville
#10 Bremen at #7 Quincy
#14 East St. Louis at #3 Pekin
#11 Richards at #6 Collinsville


~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Payton at #1 Sycamore
#9 Prairie Ridge #8 Grayslake Central
#13 Goode at #4 St. Viator
#12 Noble/Speer at #5 St. Patrick

#15 Antioch at #2 Carmel
#10 Boylan Catholic at #7 Sterling
#14 Kaneland at #3 Glenbard South
#11 Noble/Bulls at #6 Perspectives/Leadership

Lower Bracket
#16 Metamora at #1 Simeon
#9 Ottawa #8 Mount Vernon
#13 MacArthur at #4 Centennial
#12 Marian Catholic at #5 Morgan Park

#15 Triad at #2 Mahomet-Seymour
#10 LaSalle-Peru at #7 Highland
#14 Kankakee at #3 Peoria
#11 Marion at #6 Mascoutah


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Marengo at #1 Morris
#9 Agricultural Science #8 Geneseo
#13 St. Laurence at #4 Hyde Park
#12 Providence at #5 St. Francis

#15 Plano at #2 Richmond-Burton
#10 Dixon at #7 Wheaton Academy
#14 Coal City at #3 Joliet Catholic
#11 Evergreen Park at #6 Rochelle

Lower Bracket
#16 Quincy Notre Dame at #1 Carterville
#9 Murphysboro #8 Breese Central
#13 Jersey at #4 Columbia
#12 Richland County at #5 Waterloo

#15 Effingham at #2 Macomb
#10 Rochester at #7 Frreburg
#14 Streator at #3 Sacred Heart-Griffin
#11 Mount Zion at #6 Centralia


~~~ 3A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Dyett at #1 Princeton
#9 Monmouth-Roseville #8 Genoa-Kingston
#13 Kewanee at #4 DePaul
#12 Marian Central at #5 Immaculate Conception

#15 Montini at #2 Reed-Custer
#10 Peotone at #7 Byron
#14 Urban Prep/Bronzeville at #3 Stillman Valley
#11 Clark at #6 King

Lower Bracket
#16 Southwestern at #1 East Alton
#9 Benton at #8 Sullivan-Okaw Valley
#13 Roxana at #4 Williamsville
#12 New Berlin at #5 Paxton Buckley-Loda

#15 Hillsboro at #2 Prairie Central
#10 Greenville at #7 Harrisburg
#14 Monticello at #3 Eureka
#11 Tolono Unity at #6 Mount Carmel

 

[USD24]

Well done as always. I few of my observations if playoffs started today.

• I don't see anyone challenging MC in 7A. Maybe Prospect if they meet in the championship?
• I like NND in the upper bracket of 6A.
• If Simeon stays in 5A, they are one of the definite favorites. Selfishly, I would rather see them in 6A. Better match ups.
• In 4A, the upper bracket is loaded. Any one of JC, Weaton Acaemy, RB, Morris or SF could emerge from that side of the bracket.

 

[go_rice]

Looks like BR & Marist could save money by chartering a bus down south together.

 

[JCHillmen]

Well done as always. I few of my observations if playoffs started today.

• I don't see anyone challenging MC in 7A. Maybe Prospect if they meet in the championship?
• I like NND in the upper bracket of 6A.
• If Simeon stays in 5A, they are one of the definite favorites. Selfishly, I would rather see them in 6A. Better match ups.
• In 4A, the upper bracket is loaded. Any one of JC, Weaton Acaemy, RB, Morris or SF could emerge from that side of the bracket.

This is where 8 classes stinks. If Simeon is 5A, they are the overwhelming favorite and we won’t get potential matchups with esl or other high powered matchups. If they do go 6a, then 5A becomes quite wide open and watered down. MC in that 7A field lacks excitement and would get some much more heralded matchups in 6A or 8A.

PC to 4A is interesting. They likely would get a rough draw in 4a north as a low seed. However, if they get bumped up to 5A, Simeon likely goes to 6a and PC might emerge as one of a few real 5A contenders along with sycamore, Peoria, etc. they have to be hoping to get to 5 wins and a nice 5A draw.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Kind of strange not seeing Crete-Monee in the mix (so far) compared to past years. Lots of football yet to be played, though.

 

[RD_Watcher]

If they started today - all 7 West Suburban Silver teams are in the playoffs - 5 in 8A, 2 in 7A. Proviso West included.

 

[Alexander32]

About the only downside to East St. Louis playing such a difficult nonconference schedule is that come playoff time their opponents in the first couple of rounds will be playing a much tougher team than they ought to be playing. [Because of the effect the two losses have on the Flyer's seeding.]

 

[EdgyTim]

About the only downside to East St. Louis playing such a difficult nonconference schedule is that come playoff time their opponents in the first couple of rounds will be playing a much tougher team than they ought to be playing. [Because of the effect the two losses have on the Flyer's seeding.]

Also not the mention the Flyers much improved chances of hosting say a quarterfinal or a semifinal at home.....

 

[McEvergreen]

About the only downside to East St. Louis playing such a difficult nonconference schedule is that come playoff time their opponents in the first couple of rounds will be playing a much tougher team than they ought to be playing. [Because of the effect the two losses have on the Flyer's seeding.]

About the only downside to East St. Louis playing such a difficult nonconference schedule is that come playoff time their opponents in the first couple of rounds will be playing a much tougher team than they ought to be playing. [Because of the effect the two losses have on the Flyer's seeding.]

Downside for who? 9-0, 8-1's and 7-2's who played a softer schedule? I want to know who these cry baby teams are. I didn't hear undefeated Lemont crying last year when they faced the Flyers in the quarters.

 

[MS4EVER]

I love those brackets! Hollywood and Beast together. Good luck!!

 

[Bwm57]

If they started today - all 7 West Suburban Silver teams are in the playoffs - 5 in 8A, 2 in 7A. Proviso West included.

Also weird seeing them with 1-2-3 in 8A.

 

[treyuc25]

Any chance they go back to 1-32 seeding since the gas prices are going down. I believe that was the excuse they have to revert back to north and south brackets.

 

[Alexander32]

Downside for who? 9-0, 8-1's and 7-2's who played a softer schedule? I want to know who these cry baby teams are. I didn't hear undefeated Lemont crying last year when they faced the Flyers in the quarters.

Pekin has a solid team this year and could possibly finish with the number one seed in the south bracket at 9-0. It is very possible they might have to play East St. Louis in the second round because East St. Louis could finish as an eight seed with a 7-2 record. IF the seedings were based on actual team strength, the two teams would most likely meet in the semifinals with East St. Louis as a one seed and Pekin as a two seed. So, as things presently stand, Pekin could face the arduous task of playing the Flyers two rounds earlier than they otherwise would.

Like Lemont last year, you probably won't hear Pekin complain if things turn out that way. One deals with the existing reality and plays the hand you are dealt. It is the luck of the draw. All I am saying is, remembering my youth, I would have preferred playing the two additional games... because playing is fun. And, as a one seed from a decent conference, an easier draw would have been deserved.

 

[McEvergreen]

Pekin has a solid team this year and could possibly finish with the number one seed in the south bracket at 9-0. It is very possible they might have to play East St. Louis in the second round because East St. Louis could finish as an eight seed with a 7-2 record. IF the seedings were based on actual team strength, the two teams would most likely meet in the semifinals with East St. Louis as a one seed and Pekin as a two seed. So, as things presently stand, Pekin could face the arduous task of playing the Flyers two rounds earlier than they otherwise would.

Like Lemont last year, you probably won't hear Pekin complain if things turn out that way. One deals with the existing reality and plays the hand you are dealt. It is the luck of the draw. All I am saying is, remembering my youth, I would have preferred playing the two additional games... because playing is fun. And, as a one seed from a decent conference, it would have been deserved.

I hear what you're saying. I'm not a big fan of the multiplier, but it is what it is. Until the IHSA figures out a better way, I guess we're stuck.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

I hear what you're saying. I'm not a big fan of the multiplier, but it is what it is. Until the IHSA figures out a better way, I guess we're stuck.

Are you a fan of the Success Factor for unboundaried schools only?

 

[EdgyTim]

Any chance they go back to 1-32 seeding since the gas prices are going down. I believe that was the excuse they have to revert back to north and south brackets.

No

 

[SOUTHSIDECFD]

Looks like BR & Marist could save money by chartering a bus down south together.

I like the idea of dueling busses racing down the highway....