First Round Blowouts

[ramblinman]

I know you all have been waiting with baited breath for my annual rant about first round playoff mismatches. This year, it's just data with no editorializing (at least in the first post). The numbers in brackets reflect similar data from 2021, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

There were 54 [56, 52, 52] games decided by margins of 30 points or greater. A total of 36 [33, 32, 31] games finished with margins of 40 points or greater. An additional 54 [38, 15, 20] teams scored fewer than 10 points.

As 4Afan pointed out yesterday, 23 (18%) of 128 games this past weekend were decided by one score or less. Compare that to 42% [44%, 41%, 41%] decided by margins of 30 points or greater and 28% [26%, 25%, 24%] ending with margins greater than 40 pts.

Of 128 first round games games, 17% [22%, 15%, 12%] were shutouts of any margin.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

It’s a great topic. I don’t know how you fix it. I do think this year there gal between the elite teams in Illinois and the second and third tiers is a bit wider than it’s been

 

[ramblinman]

It’s a great topic. I don’t know how you fix it. I do think this year there gal between the elite teams in Illinois and the second and third tiers is a bit wider than it’s been

The how you fix it part is what generated five pages of posts in last year's similar topic.

 

[colin2229]

I was actually just about to start a thread on this but I'll post it here.

The major issue here is the CPS.

CPS went 4-13 in round 1 with all wins vs other CPS schools.

The average score was 52-4.

It's not a win for the CPS schools or the IHSA to have them in the playoff system.

 

[HRCJR]

I was actually just about to start a thread on this but I'll post it here.

The major issue here is the CPS.

CPS went 4-13 in round 1 with all wins vs other CPS schools.

The average score was 52-4.

It's not a win for the CPS schools or the IHSA to have them in the playoff system.

Morgan Park beat Fenwick

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

The how you fix it part is what generated five pages of posts in last year's similar topic.

Agreed and it’s not just CPS. There is a randomness to this that makes it complicated. Some traditionally strong conferences like the DVC and FVC had rough opening rounds which made some otherwise tasty looking first round games become less than.

 

[HRCJR]

It would be interesting to see the halftime scores. And how many teams pulled their starters for the second half.

Examples - Ignatius was up 35 - 0 14 minutes into the game. 41 - 0 at half. Won 48 - 21 over Deerfield

Loyola was up 42-0 at half. Won 42 - 7 over Plainfield South

Neither team played their starters in the second half

 

[guerinfbfan]

Just to play devils advocate...a lot of other conferences have teams that arent up to "par".

Why should CPS not get their teams in? They're part of the IHSA just like everyone else.

They hit the criteria to make the post season and deserve to be in.

 

[lurker74]

There isn't a fix. All sports have blowouts, all the time. Could be completely made up in my mind, but it seems like half the championship games end up being blowouts each year???

MY 5 minute research... went through last saturdays Power 5 football scores. 4 out of 24 games were 1 score results, and 2 of those 4 were 8 points.

 

[ramblinman]

Morgan Park beat Fenwick

And Simeon running clocked Oak Forest.

 

[lurker74]

Margin of victory in last year's 8 championship games, from 1A thru 8A: 13, 17, 28, 29, 19, 1, 29, 18

 

[colin2229]

And Simeon running clocked Oak Forest.

This is where I got confused and forgot what took place when CPS schools were added to the playoffs and thus didn't count Simeon or Morgan Parks win into my stats.

Simeon and MP have been in the playoffs before the CPS joined the IHSA playoffs...correct? I could be wrong.
The issue is the CPS schools that joined the IHSA playoffs when they made that switch.

 

[iamgroot]

Could be completely made up in my mind, but it seems like half the championship games end up being blowouts each year???

I think this is due to the North vs South system of state finals. Seeding 1-32 would help some of the blowouts, although it wouldn't eliminate it due to the broken way a weak schedule 9-0 gets rated higher than a hard 6-3 schedule.

 

[prince_of_pilfer]

CPS schools have always been in the playoffs. Am I missing something here?

Yes, it's unfortunate that a 9-0 CPS is like a 3-6 suburban team from a decent conference but that's the way they made the system. I'm not sure you could ever make it fairer than what it is right now for the higher levels that seed 1-32. You can't make it subjective as to who makes the playoff based on a committee. That's when it gets really ugly.

If you think football is bad, you should go study other sports where a sectional semifinal game is really a state semifinal game because the IHSA gives zero you know whats when figuring out sectionals. Or better yet the seedings are made with 3 weeks left in the season. They've been doing that for 30 years. Wait isn't our technology better now than it was 30 years ago? The IHSA doesn't care and they wonder why people don't take them seriously. Ok, that's my rant!

Good luck to all the teams still in it!

 

[stonedlizard]

 

[ramblinman]

I was actually just about to start a thread on this but I'll post it here.

The major issue here is the CPS.

CPS went 4-13 in round 1 with all wins vs other CPS schools.

The average score was 52-4.

It's not a win for the CPS schools or the IHSA to have them in the playoff system.

I disagree.

First of all, you are incorrect about CPL teams only beating other CPL teams (Simeon and Morgan Park both beat non-CPL teams).

Secondly, there were PLENTY of mismatches not involving CPL schools last weekend. If you took CPL teams out of the equation (in which case you would never again see a team like Phillips win two titles and one runner up trophy in a four year span like they did from 2014-2017), you would still have the following crazy mismatches:

Camp Point Central, 66 Dupo 0
Tri Valley 44, Clifton Central 0
St Teresa 49, Chester 0
Athens 48, White County 8
Byron 52, Lisle 7
Eureka 49, Beardstown 6
Richmond Burton 49, Ridgewood 0
St. Francis 63, Marengo 0
Waterloo 76, Richland County 28
SHG 55, Hall 6

And the above scores are just 1A through 4A. There are TONS more examples of mismatches in those four classes alone, but the above are some of the largest margins.

38 non-CPL teams failed to score more than 10 points in losing efforts this past weekend.

 

[colin2229]

I disagree.

First of all, you are incorrect about CPL teams only beating other CPL teams (Simeon and Morgan Park both beat non-CPL teams). See my above most.

Secondly, there were PLENTY of mismatches not involving CPL schools last weekend. If you took CPL teams out of the equation (in which case you would never again see a team like Phillips win two titles and one runner up trophy in a four year span like they did from 2014-2017), you would still have the following crazy mismatches:

Camp Point Central, 66 Dupo 0
Tri Valley 44, Clifton Central 0
St Teresa 49, Chester 0
Athens 48, White County 8
Byron 52, Lisle 7
Eureka 49, Beardstown 6
Richmond Burton 49, Ridgewood 0
St. Francis 63, Marengo 0
Waterloo 76, Richland County 28
SHG 55, Hall 6

And the above scores are just 1A through 4A. There are TONS more examples of mismatches in those four classes alone, but the above are some of the largest margins.

38 non-CPL teams failed to score more than 10 points in losing efforts this past weekend.

I will correct myself based on your info provided...CPS is one of the factors but not the #1 major issue. Thanks for doing that research.

24 of 48 eligible CPS schools make 2021 football playoffs
I did not know the above but that ratio seems off. 50% making the playoffs seems high.
One of the major reasons stated is so many CPS schools get forfeit wins from other CPS schools not having enough kids or cancelling their seasons. I'd be curious to know how many forfeit wins took place this year across all qualifying schools.

Also, there are 76 CPS schools playing football and 48 are eligible to qualify for the playoffs. Perhaps the IHSA could make a rule that wins and playoff points must come from playoff eligible opponents only.

 

[colin2229]

CPS schools have always been in the playoffs. Am I missing something here?

There are 76 CPS programs playing football. The CPS doesn't allow all of them to play in the IHSA playoffs. 48 play in conferences that the CPS allows to play in the playoffs.

Unless my memory is mistaken, only a couple of CPS conferences were able to play in the playoffs until 10-15 years ago.

 

[UlbKA91]

Colin2229:

You might be confusing what was known as the Chicago Conference (Lower Division) of the CPS for the entirety of the CPS. The traditional CPS winning teams were/are in the Illini Conference which always has been eligible . The Chicago Conference teams were not eligible for the state playoffs NOR the Prep Bowl playoffs from the inception of the Illini/Chicago split in the late 90s until the mid 2010s. The Chicago Conference teams played a straight through 9 game schedule and the Illini Conference teams 9th game was Rd 1 of the Prep Bowl playoffs (several programs in the 70s/80s were rumored to have tanked or rested starters in preparation for State games).

 

[4Afan]

It’s a great topic. I don’t know how you fix it. I do think this year there gal between the elite teams in Illinois and the second and third tiers is a bit wider than it’s been

I don't know that it necessarily needs to be fixed. Any time you have a tournament of this size you're bound to have blowouts in the first round when lower seeded team face top seeded teams.

It's not perfect but it's about as fair of a system as we can get. There will always be the CPS factor but the best, and quite possibly only solution is to rank teams 1-32 across all 8 classes in order to get a true champion. Even if that happens it doesn't guarantee close games. As another post mentions the margin of victory in all 8 classes last year and only 6A was within 13 points and that includes 7A and 8A which were already seeded 1-32.

Where Illinois ranks nationally among HS football is a separate debate but I think that Illinois is just very top heavy. The top programs across all classes are head and shoulders above the rest of the heard. While certain teams will have exceptional classes come through from time to time there only a few handful of consistent programs across Illinois.

 

[caravan8]

What if the teams weren’t just ranked by record initially? What if you added the wins a team has to its playoff points to sort of include SOS in the ranking? For example…

In 7A, MC was 9-0 with 52 playoff points so they would get a total of 61 points. Also in 7A Hersey is 9-0 with 41 playoff points so that puts them at 50 points. Pekin is 9-0 with 34 playoff points giving them a total of 43 points. SR was 7-2 with 49 playoff points giving them 56 points total. In this scenario, SR would be seeded ahead of both Hersey & Pekin in the playoffs.

Again not a perfect solution but it could lead to less blowouts in the opening rounds.

Also I think all classes would need to go to 1-32 seeding.

 

[stonedlizard]

Items to address:

1. How classes are determined
2. How playoff seeding is determined within a class

 

[guerinfbfan]

I say this a lot, but everyone needs to remember that the IHSA doesnt care if the best two teams make it to a state championship. They're more concerned with geographic representation.

 

[4Afan]

I say this a lot, but everyone needs to remember that the IHSA doesnt care if the best two teams make it to a state championship. They're more concerned with geographic representation.

 

[lurker74]

Specifically regarding blowouts though, none of these things matter. (IHSA, how teams are seeded, geographic representation, etc.).

The 34 teams that won by 40+ points were likely going to do that to anyone they played. Maybe if the seeding was done differently, they get a matchup thats 20+ points??? But that likely just makes one of the games that was relatively close a larger blowout.

Outside of maybe the blob of most the NFL, sports are not equal, or fair. Blowouts are the norm, not some abnormality that can be fixed.

 

[AmbroseBlack]

I firmly believe second-tier CPS teams (Chicago Conference) don't belong in the IHSA playoffs. They are not even eligible for the CPS playoffs. I want to see a CPS Chicago Conference playoff so these kids have something to play for.

With that said, if those teams are removed would it lead to more 5-4 suburban team's getting in? If so, the games maybe more competitive, but I am not sure by how much. Every year, I think the talent gap between the top teams and the middle-of-the-road teams grows, not to mention the gap between the top and the bottom.

 

[doctor_d]

The only way to reduce first round blowouts and maintain the integrity of a seeded tournament format is to reduce the number of teams in the brackets.

Less teams get in or more classes are formed.

 

[SouthofI80FootballFan]

The 1st Round of the playoffs is comparable to Regional semifinals in all other IHSA sports. I am sure there are just as many "blowouts" in those games.
As for football, CPS does play into the issue but you can't kick them out.

Seeding 1-32 won't fix it either, you will have just as many lopsided games.

We just have to face it...great teams/programs are continuing to get better and the divide between them and the middle tier teams is getting wider.

One possible change is to do away with the wins and playoff points as a basis of seeding and use an RPI system like many other states. Reward schools for playing tougher and opponents and schools larger than them.

 

[mc140]

I firmly believe second-tier CPS teams (Chicago Conference) don't belong in the IHSA playoffs. They are not even eligible for the CPS playoffs. I want to see a CPS Chicago Conference playoff so these kids have something to play for.

With that said, if those teams are removed would it lead to more 5-4 suburban team's getting in? If so, the games maybe more competitive, but I am not sure by how much. Every year, I think the talent gap between the top teams and the middle-of-the-road teams grows, not to mention the gap between the top and the bottom.

You would just add a bunch of 4-5 teams at this point. Maybe a couple games would be different. Overall you would just have 20-30 point losses instead of 40 plus.

 

[ignazio]

Solution: Districts.

Discuss.

 

[doctor_d]

The already submitted "power ranking" type proposals, while interesting, would succeed in creating a ton of parity in the mid sized classes, but would severely water down the lowest classes and leave the largest virtually unchanged.
If you take a team like 2A St. Teresa or even 4A Richmond-Burton, it isn't terribly difficult to find 31 other teams in the state that would be on competitive terms with them - if you are willing to move them with larger enrollment schools.
You can't find 31 other teams that would be competitive with Loyola or Mt. Carmel.

Result: 8A would be virtually unchanged. 1A would be filled with a bunch of mediocre at best 5-4 teams.

There is no other large seeded tournament bracket that I'm aware of that seeks first round parity.

 

[Alexander32]

A new rule regarding playoff eligibility would help reduce (though certainly not eliminate) blowouts. The rule would state: Any conference that has not placed a team in the quarterfinals in the last ten years shall be limited to one playoff representative. That one representative shall be the conference champion.

There are many 4-5 teams from strong conferences, such as Glenbard North and Benet Academy this year, that would be far more competitive in a first-round playoff game than a second or third place team from a weak conference. This rule does not single out Chicago Public Schools for special treatment because it would pertain to any conference that has not placed a team in the quarterfinals. It also does not prevent these conferences from playoff participation as their conference champion will participate every year. If at some point that conference champion wins two playoff games to make it to the quarterfinals, then that conference will be eligible for full participation for at least the next ten years.

The current system, if it were to be compared to the NCAA basketball tournament, would be like admitting just as many teams to the NCAA basketball tournament from the Ohio Valley Conference as from the Big Ten Conference. That is a flawed concept. There is a qualitative difference between the two conferences.

Nevertheless, the Ohio Valley Conference is a member of NCAA Division I basketball and should be allowed to participate in the tournament; and they do with their conference champion each year. The players and coaches should have a chance to participate and advance, and fans love the Cinderella story when upsets occur.

Similarly, lesser conferences that are IHSA members should be allowed to participate in the playoffs each year. The new proposed rule allows that. And again, most fans love it when teams from these conferences occasionally pull off the upset.

In order to not create an incentive for teams to become independents (in order to qualify with a 5-4 record), a second rule may eventually be needed stating that independents must have at least a 7-2 record in order to qualify for the state playoffs; or can qualify under the regular eligibility rules if that specific team has made it to the quarterfinals in the last ten years.

 

[Alexander32]

What if the teams weren’t just ranked by record initially? What if you added the wins a team has to its playoff points to sort of include SOS in the ranking? For example…

In 7A, MC was 9-0 with 52 playoff points so they would get a total of 61 points. Also in 7A Hersey is 9-0 with 41 playoff points so that puts them at 50 points. Pekin is 9-0 with 34 playoff points giving them a total of 43 points. SR was 7-2 with 49 playoff points giving them 56 points total. In this scenario, SR would be seeded ahead of both Hersey & Pekin in the playoffs.

Again not a perfect solution but it could lead to less blowouts in the opening rounds.

Also I think all classes would need to go to 1-32 seeding.

I don't believe what you have suggested here will be effective. If Mt. Carmel went 0-9 against the exact same schedule, they would still have 61 points. Because they would have lost all nine games, each of their nine opponents would have one additional win. Therefore they would be 0-9 with 61 playoff points, which in your proposed system would result in 61 total points. At 0-9 they would be ranked well ahead of 9-0 Hersey.

 

[caravan8]

I don't believe what you have suggested here will be effective. If Mt. Carmel went 0-9 against the exact same schedule, they would still have 61 points. Because they would have lost all nine games, each of their nine opponents would have one additional win. Therefore they would be 0-9 with 61 playoff points, which in your proposed system would result in 61 total points. At 0-9 they would be ranked well ahead of 9-0 Hersey.

I should’ve been more specific, in what I was thinking. I was thinking you still start out with the 256 best records, so an 0-9 team or a 1-8 team wouldn’t have a possibility of getting in. I’d start with the best 256 records and then seed each class as proposed. Again - I don’t think it’s an ideal fix, just twiddling around.

 

[colin2229]

I do think less CPS teams and more 4-5 teams would make for closer games in round 1.

There really is no other option other than decreasing the amount of teams in the tourney and I don’t want that.

 

[ramblinman]

If you take a team like 2A St. Teresa or even 4A Richmond-Burton, it isn't terribly difficult to find 31 other teams in the state that would be on competitive terms with them - if you are willing to move them with larger enrollment schools.
You can't find 31 other teams that would be competitive with Loyola or Mt. Carmel.

Result: 8A would be virtually unchanged. 1A would be filled with a bunch of mediocre at best 5-4 teams.

Disagree.

It would all depend on how the classes would be determined.

Finding 32 equally competitive teams is impossible. There will always be an array of competitiveness within a group that large. All I'd like to see is a classification system that does a better job of narrowing the current enrollment based array. What we have now is a system based solely on enrollment and it just doesn't do a good enough job in my opinion.

Two weekends ago, LA and MC proved that there is very little competitive difference between them. So why are LA in 8A, MC in 7A and substantially less competitive schools than MC (Lane, Rich Twp, Plainfield South, etc) in 8A? Why are more competitive schools like Lake Zurich and Wheaton North in 7A and not 8A? WN defeated a handful of 8A sized schools this year, including an 8A qualifier. LZ beat two 8A qualifiers.

At a minimum, you could keep the enrollment basis for classification, and swap a handful of schools between each of the classes. The result would be a substantial narrowing of the competitive array in each class. I'm not sure how that would be done, but to say that 1A would be all 5-4 teams and 8A would be virtually unchanged is not true.

 

[ramblinman]

There really is no other option other than decreasing the amount of teams in the tourney and I don’t want that.

Why not?

When the IHSA moved from 6 to 8 classes 20 years or so ago, how many football playing schools were there at that time? I don't know, but I would wager more than today. Since then, participation in football has decreased. More schools are playing 8-man football now. More schools have had to co-op with one or more other schools. A number of schools have dropped football altogether.

What would be wrong with decreasing the number of classes?

 

[colin2229]

Why not?

When the IHSA moved from 6 to 8 classes 20 years or so ago, how many football playing schools were there at that time? I don't know, but I would wager more than today. Since then, participation in football has decreased. More schools are playing 8-man football now. More schools have had to co-op with one or more other schools. A number of schools have dropped football altogether.

What would be wrong with decreasing the number of classes?

I like 5-4 teams in the playoffs and if we go back to 6 classes they won't be in the playoffs.

I like the intriguing story that 5-4 Providence brings to the table. Same thing with Forreston in 1A.



I greatly dislike the idea of not dividing the classes up by enrollment. It's rewarding losing and punishing winning. Two equally sized schools would be in different classes because one wins more? Nope, don't like that.

 

[ironjoe13]

This has probably been asked before, so forgive me... But why are private schools allowed to compete in IHSA events in the first place?

 

[mikeywoj]

This has probably been asked before, so forgive me... But why are private schools allowed to compete in IHSA events in the first place?

Because they're members of the IHSA. All full members are allowed to participate in the state playoffs