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Cal Preps: Project a Matchup

iamgroot

Well-Known Member
Aug 27, 2018
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I don't know if you all noticed, but CalPreps updated their prediction algorithm to show the accuracy of their predictions based on past prediction accuracy:

note: here are the historical percent chances of a team winning when they have the following projected margin of victory by our system:

1: 53%
2: 57%
3: 58%
4: 60%
5: 61%
6: 62%
7: 65%
8: 72%
9: 73%
10: 74%
11: 75%
12: 77%
13: 80%
14: 81%
15: 84%
16: 86%
17: 87%
18: 87%
19: 88%
20: 88%
21: 90%
22: 92%
23: 93%
24: 94%
25: 95%
26: 95%
27: 96%
28: 96%
29: 97%
30: 97%
31: 97%
32: 98%
33: 98%
34: 98%
35: 98%
36: 99%
37 and up: >99%
 
I don't know if you all noticed, but CalPreps updated their prediction algorithm to show the accuracy of their predictions based on past prediction accuracy:
I saw that yesterday. I ran some of the predictions on a neutral field. I believe that Illinois results next weekend are about to add significantly to the error bars in that calculation.
 
No we didn't all notice because many.of us don't give a flying football about CalPreps
 
Narrator: He clicked on the thread clearly marked with CalPreps in the title. The ne’er-do-well teenagers also did not get off the man’s lawn. His shaking fist scared no one.
I clicked the thread for another website on a Rivals board. Yes.
 
Epic, find the humor all our favorites are still playing football and it’s thanksgiving weekend.
I don't need to find humor in anything. CalPreps is another site, it's annoying it's promoted here.

I'm actually having a fine day with the kids and pot pies.
 
I don't need to find humor in anything. CalPreps is another site, it's annoying it's promoted here.

I'm actually having a fine day with the kids and pot pies.

images
 
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I don't need to find humor in anything. CalPreps is another site, it's annoying it's promoted here.

I'm actually having a fine day with the kids and pot pies.

I understand your sentiment regarding promoting other sites, but I don't view CalPreps to be a competing site. Cal Preps is focused on strength of schedule via strictly mathematical evaluation, whereas this focuses more on the human element. Some don't care, some are neutral, some look forward to it. If CalPreps more directly competed with Edgy for traffic, I wouldn't be bringing it over. I've not ever seen Edgy have an issue with us discussing it here, which also played into my decision to post about it.
 
In 2019 Naz was suppose to beat MC by quite a bit on calpreps, like 20 I think. Are there any other state game upsets that large? It recalculates its prediction after the game ends, so you cant always look up historical data.
 
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In 2019 Naz was suppose to beat MC by quite a bit on calpreps, like 20 I think. Are there any other state game upsets that large? It recalculates its prediction after the game ends, so you cant always look up historical data.
Hey Wizard here is the historic info(5 pts), but keep in mind the computers don’t take a Monsoon into the calculation and that was pretty much what it was. No excuses MC molywopped the Roadrunners!

7A CHAMPIONSHIP
Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 37 Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) 13 [projection: Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) 26-21]
 
Cal Preps had ESTL vs Lemont 48-14
Score 32-29 Lemont could have won.
Cal preps of course predicts the games at a high clip
Upsets are hard to come by in HS .
This week no upsets
Mount Carmel 28-10
Lincoln way East 17-14
ESTL 48-14
Naz 24-21
Sacred Heart 31-17
Ic by 30
Winslow by 21
Teresa by 21
 
Nice to see they keep it up following the end of the season. I guess I assumed it would recalculate its projection following that games conclusion, just like after other weeks. I agree, not factoring home/away, weather, or last minute injuries can swing that by quite a bit, lets just say the sharps would have a field day with that site.

I was just trying to recall a recent event where it really challenged those %, certainly no salt intended. On 2 occasions now, this yrs MC has looked like Naz did in that 2019 game where passing is negated and its about establishing Plan B. Tough to focus on preparing for November in early August when you have a QB who can really throw it though like both teams did/do. Lessons learned for both programs, hopefully.
 
Cal Preps had ESTL vs Lemont 48-14
Score 32-29 Lemont could have won.
Cal preps of course predicts the games at a high clip
Upsets are hard to come by in HS .
This week no upsets
Mount Carmel 28-10
Lincoln way East 17-14
ESTL 48-14
Naz 24-21
Sacred Heart 31-17
Ic by 30
Winslow by 21
Teresa by 21
This guy really can’t just get ESL off the brain. Lol. Could’ve Would’ve Should’ve. Who hurt you, bud? I promise that I’ll go even the score for you. Just point them out……😂😂
 
This guy really can’t just get ESL off the brain. Lol. Could’ve Would’ve Should’ve. Who hurt you, bud? I promise that I’ll go even the score for you. Just point them out……😂😂
The longer that game would have gone, the more ESL would have ran away with it. ESLs RB was just eating yards on the ground and that was just going to get worse for Lemont.

ESL is going to ride that second half mo right through PR next week, by a lot. I dont see how PR could have much left to pull out on ESL that havent already shown in two previous meetings. Lemont should just be happy it ended when it did, they played hard. PR won't have the same lucky fate.
 
The longer that game would have gone, the more ESL would have ran away with it. ESLs RB was just eating yards on the ground and that was just going to get worse for Lemont.

ESL is going to ride that second half mo right through PR next week, by a lot. I dont see how PR could have much left to pull out on ESL that havent already shown in two previous meetings. Lemont should just be happy it ended when it did, they played hard. PR won't have the same lucky fate.
Should they have played 60 minutes instead of 48? This is one of the stupidest post on this board in a while, congrats.
 
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