MC vs. Naz
- Thread starter pjjp
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Back on track, new factor, the weather....rain...wind...sleet....cold....I’m thinking that kind of weather helps MC style of play.
I’ll take it....how about the Jordan Lynch back at NIU factor? Even -6?
I brought up Dave Lenti; why diminish anything but respect for him? I simply said he was the catylist in this showdown. From a very short list if there is anyone that could slow down the roadrunner's it would be his plan.
I am anything but a MC faithful. I just call it as I see and have experienced it.
In a game with this much talent on both teams, I would go the coach with the most experience. Naz wins by 2 scores. Should be an awesome game to watch. Naz has athletes all over the field and MC has men on their team, especially on the D.
You have a right to be upset. "Ignorant putz" is redundant.
The immaturity of some of you guys is amazing.
What facts are you referring to? In the playoff era of the IHSA, JC and MC have played each other pretty evenly. Your assertion that the mighty caravan have "bodied" Joliet Catholic every time they play is pure nonsense.
Perhaps a little historical perspective can shed some light on the probable outcome. I know most people who post to this board think past years' results have nothing to do with current seasons. Years of experience as a handicapper have taught me otherwise.
Over the last 20 years, looking at classes 5A, 6A, 7A and 8A, defending state champions have reached the championship game 20 times the following year. In one case, back in 2011, the defending 6A champion met the defending 7A champion. For our purposes I am removing that result since one team was guaranteed to win and one team was guaranteed to lose. Therefore that game is not useful for this analysis. In the other 18 cases, the defending state champion won the championship game the following year 15 times and lost the championship game the following year 3 times.
For a sample size of 18 occurrences, statistically speaking one can be approximately 90% confident that the sample result will fall within three outcomes of the true probability. That means one can be highly confident the true probability of a defending state champion winning the next year's championship game (provided they have made it to the championship game) is somewhere between 12/18 and 18/18.
Based on the above statistical analysis, one can be highly confident that Nazareth has at least a 66.7% chance of winning the game. That translates to them being at least a 6-1/2 point favorite.
Geez Alexander! If you add up your three posts in a row, does that make Naz at 19 1/2 point favorite. LOL
As much as I regret your conclusion, I have to respect your treatment of the numbers. The same methodology can be used to explain why Carmel, Montini, and other teams have won state championships three, four, or five times in a row. Each successive championship would have a lower probability, but nonetheless the odds would be higher than random.
Well after my introduction today to two defensive stalwarts from Naz I am stepping up on my prognostications.
NAZ wins. Again, long from their private school league days- two of the classiest kids ya would ever want to meet.
Dave Lenti keeps the score down; but so do my two favorite players.
They are officially apart of "The Outfits" crue!
Cannot wait until this one!
NAZ wins. Again, long from their private school league days- two of the classiest kids ya would ever want to meet.
Dave Lenti keeps the score down; but so do my two favorite players.
They are officially apart of "The Outfits" crue!
Cannot wait until this one!
I think this game is a toss up. Are there any Lithuanian women on either team? I think this could throw the game in either direction especially on a bad weather day.
No, all the babushkas are at home scrubbing the sidewalks.
My uncle played Big Ten football and he doesn't have my grandfather's build
Roadrunners have already started throwing touchdown passes at Huskie Stadium.
Posts like this have helped build Vegas. There is no secret formula to picking winners. Sorry buddy. In 4 days, this gets settled on the field as it should. Everyone is free to believe what they want but you can throw it all out the window once kick off happens.
two very classy kids. No question I am pulling for their performance. I will be watching the Naz D very closely. Can’t throw kids names out there.
Coach Tim Racki. 5th title game in a 6th year span. Man seems to know what he’s doing.
It is comical, people think if you don't play a CCL Blue schedule then you play a bunch of cupcakes all year and can't play with anybody. Seen both teams play in person, MC is a very good team, with that said they have 2 good DB's, but you have to cover 4 recievers. Naz by 2 scores, McCarthy will find his matchup he likes and exploit it. Although Ty Morris doesn't appear like a burner, he will still be the biggest threat on the field and will find the endzone multiple times. Don't get me wrong I like what Lynch has done this year getting away from that horrific veer, but this game will be close for a while and then the big plays will start to happen. Roadrunners repeat.
I was told there would be no math
I wonder how many more titles MC would have won if Lenti had embraced the new fangled forward pass back in the 90s. Can you imagine wasting a talent like McNabb running the veer?
I'd rather have the MC coaching staff. I know Lynch makes the final call, but don't think for a second he doesn't listen to the 100 years + experience of his coaching staff.
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