If the PLAYOFFS started today... Week 5

[Catch--22]

I wasn't sure I was going to do this again this season. I have only made it to one game so far, and I left in the 2nd quarter after a 2 hour non-lightning delay. I've been very busy with poor softball pitching, wheezing through OrangeTheory workouts, and stammering wedding officiating. But, I found some free time after the Diamondbacks hung an early 5-spot on the Beloved Cub.

For the newbies, every Monday (ahem, Wednesday) I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standing were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't NEED to adjust for the teams from the CPS "Chicago" conferences anymore, because they are all ineligible. WOO-HOO!!!! The Outlook STILL doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

Is this a huge waste of time? Yes. But some people seem to like it, and I like bracketing things, so I'll waste some time on the next 5 Mondays (-ish) for the enjoyment of Edgy's minions. Where you can find some value is in the cutoff for each class, the north/south line between brackets in 1A thru 6A, and how some teams relate to others in terms of playoff points. For example, Glenbard West was a 7A team for a decade. But their ascension to 8A in 2014 should not have been a big surprise because I was showing you they would likely end up in 8A for over a month.

Anyways.....

I don't want to get too detailed for the first Playoff Outlook. The IHSA did a TERRIBLE job organizing the Outlook this week. Take a look at how bad it is when you get a chance. It was the Outlook updated at 3:59 PM Wednesday. 2-2/16 Salem IN in Class 4A, but 2-2/23 Argo OUT in 7A... in fact, 44 teams in 7A had better records than Salem. TERRIBLE!

I basically had to start from scratch. I inserted conference leaders Hyde Park, Carver Military, Plano, Rich Central, and Wood River-East Alton because they were below what I believed to be a 2-2/19 cutoff. Those 5 teams, along with every team better than 2-2 with 20 playoff points gave us 239 teams. 19 teams were left to vie for the final 17 playoff spots at 2-2/19. The lowest teams in the tie-breaker (victories by defeated opponents) were Crystal Lake South, Geneseo, and Conant, all having a zero. The other 16 teams qualify. NEXT tie-breaker, CLS gets in over Conant and Geneseo by having 6 playoff teams on the schedule, as opposed to 5 playoff opponents for the other two teams (I think). But maybe it should be Geneseo. I'll try harder next week. By the time I got this far, this miserable Outlook had me dunzo. No need to use my usual week 5 tie-breaker of eeny-meeny-meiny-moe. I'll always use all the official IHSA tie-breakers when the standings are a bit more forgiving, and the Outlook is CORRECT.

BTW, 2-2/19 is one point better than the cutoff last season in Week 5. From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams. The Outlook was so screwed up, I was left with 36 playoff teams in some classes and as few as 26 in others (per the Outlook). Biggest teams move up, smallest teams move down, yada yada yada, until we're balanced.

After years of whining about this post, IrishGlory's Vikings are in the top spot FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, and he's not around to enjoy it... At least, I don't think he is. Next week you get 8A thru 3A again, and I'll continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames, so look forward to that.

Pssst… how about those first two matchups in the top two quads of 8A?!?!? Unfortunately for Bones, it's a "Bones" year, with 8A way more daunting than 7A.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Naperville Central at #1 Homewood-Flossmoor
#17 Bolingbrook at #16 Maine South
#25 Huntley at #8 Oswego East
#24 Jacobs at #9 South Elgin

#29 Loyola at #4 Brother Rice
#20 Andrew at #13 Marist
#28 Warren at #5 Glenbard East
#21 West Aurora at #12 Stevenson

Lower Bracket
#31 Neuqua Valley at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Hinsdale Central at #15 Benet Academy
#26 New Trier at #7 Plainfield South
#23 Bartlett at #10 Evanston

#30 Sandburg at #3 Simeon
#19 Prospect at #14 Barrington
#27 Glenbard West at #6 Oswego
#22 St. Charles East at #11 Waubonsie Valley


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Granite City at #1 DeKalb
#17 Lincoln-Way West at #16 Reavis
#25 Normal at #8 Rolling Meadows
#24 Glenbrook North at #9 Yorkville

#29 Alton at #4 Hononegah
#20 Schaumburg at #13 Belleville West
#28 Wheaton North at #5 Hoffman Estates
#21 Lincoln-Way Central at #12 Wheaton-Warrenville South

Lower Bracket
#31 Highland Park at #2 Nazareth
#18 East St. Louis at #15 St. Charles North
#26 Moline at #7 Batavia
#23 Maine West at #10 TF South

#30 Oak Lawn at #3 Hersey
#19 Buffalo Grove at #14 Mt. Carmel
#27 Argo at #6 Harlem
#22 Larkin at #11 Willowbrook


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Hubbard
#9 Notre Dame #8 Belvidere North
#13 Wheeling at #4 Antioch
#12 St. Ignatius at #5 Kaneland

#15 Fenton at #2 Kenwood
#10 Hinsdale South at #7 Prairie Ridge
#14 Mather at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Lakes at #6 Amundson

Lower Bracket
#16 Phillips at #1 Richards
#9 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #8 Peoria
#13 Lemont at #4 Glenwood
#12 Quincy at #5 Shepard

#15 Bremen at #2 Providence
#10 Dunlap at #7 Bloomington
#14 Rock Island at #3 Washington
#11 Normal West at #6 Perspectives/Leadership


~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Hyde Park at #1 St. Francis
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Ridgewood
#13 Glenbard South at #4 Back of the Yards
#12 Boylan Catholic at #5 Montini

#15 St. Laurence at #2 Payton
#10 Marian Central Catholic at #7 Westinghouse
#14 Rochelle at #3 Sterling
#11 Elmwood Park at #6 Sycamore

Lower Bracket
#16 Rich Central at #1 Morton
#9 MacArthur #8 Cahokia
#13 Rich East at #4 Carbondale
#12 Mount Zion at #5 Highland

#15 Marion at #2 Metamora
#10 Mattoon at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Morris at #3 Hillcrest
#11 Mascoutah at #6 Joliet Catholic


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Carver Military/Bronzeville at #1 Immaculate Conception
#9 Johnsburg #8 Stillman Valley
#13 Marengo at #4 Bishop McNamara
#12 Sandwich at #5 Clark

#15 Plano at #2 Genoa-Kingston
#10 Agricultural Science at #7 Raby
#14 Wheaton Academy at #3 Richmond-Burton
#11 Urban Prep/Bronzeville at #6 Coal City

Lower Bracket
#16 East Alton-Wood River at #1 Clinton
#9 Freeburg #8 Breese Central
#13 Monmouth-Roseville at #4 Breese Mater Dei
#12 Prairie Central at #5 Paris

#15 Effingham at #2 Rochester
#10 Murphysboro at #7 Taylorville
#14 Herrin at #3 Pontiac
#11 Herscher at #6 Columbia

 

[corey90]

I wasn't sure I was going to do this again this season. I have only made it to one game so far, and I left in the 2nd quarter after a 2 hour non-lightning delay. I've been very busy with poor softball pitching, wheezing through OrangeTheory workouts, and stammering wedding officiating. But, I found some free time after the Diamondbacks hung an early 5-spot on the Beloved Cub.

For the newbies, every Monday (ahem, Wednesday) I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standing were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't NEED to adjust for the teams from the CPS "Chicago" conferences anymore, because they are all ineligible. WOO-HOO!!!! The Outlook STILL doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

Is this a huge waste of time? Yes. But some people seem to like it, and I like bracketing things, so I'll waste some time on the next 5 Mondays (-ish) for the enjoyment of Edgy's minions. Where you can find some value is in the cutoff for each class, the north/south line between brackets in 1A thru 6A, and how some teams relate to others in terms of playoff points. For example, Glenbard West was a 7A team for a decade. But their ascension to 8A in 2014 should not have been a big surprise because I was showing you they would likely end up in 8A for over a month.

Anyways.....

I don't want to get too detailed for the first Playoff Outlook. The IHSA did a TERRIBLE job organizing the Outlook this week. Take a look at how bad it is when you get a chance. It was the Outlook updated at 3:59 PM Wednesday. 2-2/16 Salem IN in Class 4A, but 2-2/23 Argo OUT in 7A... in fact, 44 teams in 7A had better records than Salem. TERRIBLE!

I basically had to start from scratch. I inserted conference leaders Hyde Park, Carver Military, Plano, Rich Central, and Wood River-East Alton because they were below what I believed to be a 2-2/19 cutoff. Those 5 teams, along with every team better than 2-2 with 20 playoff points gave us 239 teams. 19 teams were left to vie for the final 17 playoff spots at 2-2/19. The lowest teams in the tie-breaker (victories by defeated opponents) were Crystal Lake South, Geneseo, and Conant, all having a zero. The other 16 teams qualify. NEXT tie-breaker, CLS gets in over Conant and Geneseo by having 6 playoff teams on the schedule, as opposed to 5 playoff opponents for the other two teams (I think). But maybe it should be Geneseo. I'll try harder next week. By the time I got this far, this miserable Outlook had me dunzo. No need to use my usual week 5 tie-breaker of eeny-meeny-meiny-moe. I'll always use all the official IHSA tie-breakers when the standings are a bit more forgiving, and the Outlook is CORRECT.

BTW, 2-2/19 is one point better than the cutoff last season in Week 5. From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams. The Outlook was so screwed up, I was left with 36 playoff teams in some classes and as few as 26 in others (per the Outlook). Biggest teams move up, smallest teams move down, yada yada yada, until we're balanced.

After years of whining about this post, IrishGlory's Vikings are in the top spot FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, and he's not around to enjoy it... At least, I don't think he is. Next week you get 8A thru 3A again, and I'll continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames, so look forward to that.

Pssst… how about those first two matchups in the top two quads of 8A?!?!? Unfortunately for Bones, it's a "Bones" year, with 8A way more daunting than 7A.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Naperville Central at #1 Homewood-Flossmoor
#17 Bolingbrook at #16 Maine South
#25 Huntley at #8 Oswego East
#24 Jacobs at #9 South Elgin

#29 Loyola at #4 Brother Rice
#20 Andrew at #13 Marist
#28 Warren at #5 Glenbard East
#21 West Aurora at #12 Stevenson

Lower Bracket
#31 Neuqua Valley at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Hinsdale Central at #15 Benet Academy
#26 New Trier at #7 Plainfield South
#23 Bartlett at #10 Evanston

#30 Sandburg at #3 Simeon
#19 Prospect at #14 Barrington
#27 Glenbard West at #6 Oswego
#22 St. Charles East at #11 Waubonsie Valley


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Granite City at #1 DeKalb
#17 Lincoln-Way West at #16 Reavis
#25 Normal at #8 Rolling Meadows
#24 Glenbrook North at #9 Yorkville

#29 Alton at #4 Hononegah
#20 Schaumburg at #13 Belleville West
#28 Wheaton North at #5 Hoffman Estates
#21 Lincoln-Way Central at #12 Wheaton-Warrenville South

Lower Bracket
#31 Highland Park at #2 Nazareth
#18 East St. Louis at #15 St. Charles North
#26 Moline at #7 Batavia
#23 Maine West at #10 TF South

#30 Oak Lawn at #3 Hersey
#19 Buffalo Grove at #14 Mt. Carmel
#27 Argo at #6 Harlem
#22 Larkin at #11 Willowbrook


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Hubbard
#9 Notre Dame #8 Belvidere North
#13 Wheeling at #4 Antioch
#12 St. Ignatius at #5 Kaneland

#15 Fenton at #2 Kenwood
#10 Hinsdale South at #7 Prairie Ridge
#14 Mather at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Lakes at #6 Amundson

Lower Bracket
#16 Phillips at #1 Richards
#9 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #8 Peoria
#13 Lemont at #4 Glenwood
#12 Quincy at #5 Shepard

#15 Bremen at #2 Providence
#10 Dunlap at #7 Bloomington
#14 Rock Island at #3 Washington
#11 Normal West at #6 Perspectives/Leadership


~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Hyde Park at #1 St. Francis
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Ridgewood
#13 Glenbard South at #4 Back of the Yards
#12 Boylan Catholic at #5 Montini

#15 St. Laurence at #2 Payton
#10 Marian Central Catholic at #7 Westinghouse
#14 Rochelle at #3 Sterling
#11 Elmwood Park at #6 Sycamore

Lower Bracket
#16 Rich Central at #1 Morton
#9 MacArthur #8 Cahokia
#13 Rich East at #4 Carbondale
#12 Mount Zion at #5 Highland

#15 Marion at #2 Metamora
#10 Mattoon at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Morris at #3 Hillcrest
#11 Mascoutah at #6 Joliet Catholic


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Carver Military/Bronzeville at #1 Immaculate Conception
#9 Johnsburg #8 Stillman Valley
#13 Marengo at #4 Bishop McNamara
#12 Sandwich at #5 Clark

#15 Plano at #2 Genoa-Kingston
#10 Agricultural Science at #7 Raby
#14 Wheaton Academy at #3 Richmond-Burton
#11 Urban Prep/Bronzeville at #6 Coal City

Lower Bracket
#16 East Alton-Wood River at #1 Clinton
#9 Freeburg #8 Breese Central
#13 Monmouth-Roseville at #4 Breese Mater Dei
#12 Prairie Central at #5 Paris

#15 Effingham at #2 Rochester
#10 Murphysboro at #7 Taylorville
#14 Herrin at #3 Pontiac
#11 Herscher at #6 Columbia

Catch
It’s hard to take serious because your thread is if the playoffs were to start today. You have East #2?
Last I heard they have been #1?

 

[PowerI66]

Catch
It’s hard to take serious because your thread is if the playoffs were to start today. You have East #2?
Last I heard they have been #1?

3 less playoff points than HF. http://www.ihsa.org/SportsActivitie...ormationResults.aspx?url=/data/fb/outlook.htm

 

[Southland Fan 2016]

Rice Marist 2nd round match up would NUTS, especially with how "bad" of a game people think the first one was.

 

[Topiary]

Going on seedings and current polls and performance - LWE would be 1. Regardless either way either HF or LWE is going to have one guaranteed L and drop from the 1-4 seeds.

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

I love your effort...for future reference this last year of the current I-8 is two five team divisions, so no automatic bid...your mental gymnastics to get Plano in were not necessary...the Reapers go to Coal City Friday, so CC will jump to its rightful spot at the top of the I-8 Large anyway this week...

 

[Bigshot85]

Lower Bracket 7a #2 vs #18 would be a cool matchup to see in the second round.

 

[godfthr53]

Lower Bracket 7a #2 vs #18 would be a cool matchup to see in the second round.

That lower bracket is a blood bath

 

[go_rice]

So, BR would have to run a revenge gauntlet of Loyola in round 1 to Marist in Round 2? Sounds like fun, where do we sign up for this!?

 

[USD24]

That lower bracket is a blood bath

Naz vs ESTL in round two would be outstanding! That would be fitting of a championship, or at least a semi-final.

 

[MS4EVER]

Thanks Catch!! Love this $#!^!!!!

 

[Queen4]

Going on seedings and current polls and performance - LWE would be 1. Regardless either way either HF or LWE is going to have one guaranteed L and drop from the 1-4 seeds.

Is Rice in 8a or 7a this year?

 

[stonedlizard]

Upper bracket in 8A, lower bracket in 7A, lower bracket in 6A all look real fun. 5A bracket reminding me of 2009.

 

[King MJ]

wow. 7A is going to be brutal

 

[3OrangeWhips]

Is Rice in 8a or 7a this year?

Depends on if they are 1 of the 32 highest enrollment schools that qualify for playoffs. It is not pre-determined.

 

[cpacmel]

Catch, if you can please include largest and smallest enrollments in each class. Much appreciated.

 

[Q5clan]

Glenbard East in 8A at 2263 Glenbard North in 7A at 2203

Catch, if you can please include largest and smallest enrollments in each class. Much appreciated.

 

[corey90]

3 less playoff points than HF. http://www.ihsa.org/SportsActivitie...ormationResults.aspx?url=/data/fb/outlook.htm

Dumb. Will find out in 2 weeks.

 

[krock the house]

BR is 7A this year

 

[Catch--22]

I wasn't sure I was going to do this again this season. I have only made it to one game so far, and I left in the 2nd quarter after a 2 hour non-lightning delay. I've been very busy with poor softball pitching, wheezing through OrangeTheory workouts, and stammering wedding officiating. But, I found some free time after the Diamondbacks hung an early 5-spot on the Beloved Cub.

For the newbies, every Monday (ahem, Wednesday) I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standing were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't NEED to adjust for the teams from the CPS "Chicago" conferences anymore, because they are all ineligible. WOO-HOO!!!! The Outlook STILL doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

Is this a huge waste of time? Yes. But some people seem to like it, and I like bracketing things, so I'll waste some time on the next 5 Mondays (-ish) for the enjoyment of Edgy's minions. Where you can find some value is in the cutoff for each class, the north/south line between brackets in 1A thru 6A, and how some teams relate to others in terms of playoff points. For example, Glenbard West was a 7A team for a decade. But their ascension to 8A in 2014 should not have been a big surprise because I was showing you they would likely end up in 8A for over a month.

Anyways.....

I don't want to get too detailed for the first Playoff Outlook. The IHSA did a TERRIBLE job organizing the Outlook this week. Take a look at how bad it is when you get a chance. It was the Outlook updated at 3:59 PM Wednesday. 2-2/16 Salem IN in Class 4A, but 2-2/23 Argo OUT in 7A... in fact, 44 teams in 7A had better records than Salem. TERRIBLE!

I basically had to start from scratch. I inserted conference leaders Hyde Park, Carver Military, Plano, Rich Central, and Wood River-East Alton because they were below what I believed to be a 2-2/19 cutoff. Those 5 teams, along with every team better than 2-2 with 20 playoff points gave us 239 teams. 19 teams were left to vie for the final 17 playoff spots at 2-2/19. The lowest teams in the tie-breaker (victories by defeated opponents) were Crystal Lake South, Geneseo, and Conant, all having a zero. The other 16 teams qualify. NEXT tie-breaker, CLS gets in over Conant and Geneseo by having 6 playoff teams on the schedule, as opposed to 5 playoff opponents for the other two teams (I think). But maybe it should be Geneseo. I'll try harder next week. By the time I got this far, this miserable Outlook had me dunzo. No need to use my usual week 5 tie-breaker of eeny-meeny-meiny-moe. I'll always use all the official IHSA tie-breakers when the standings are a bit more forgiving, and the Outlook is CORRECT.

BTW, 2-2/19 is one point better than the cutoff last season in Week 5. From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams. The Outlook was so screwed up, I was left with 36 playoff teams in some classes and as few as 26 in others (per the Outlook). Biggest teams move up, smallest teams move down, yada yada yada, until we're balanced.

After years of whining about this post, IrishGlory's Vikings are in the top spot FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, and he's not around to enjoy it... At least, I don't think he is. Next week you get 8A thru 3A again, and I'll continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames, so look forward to that.

Pssst… how about those first two matchups in the top two quads of 8A?!?!? Unfortunately for Bones, it's a "Bones" year, with 8A way more daunting than 7A.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Naperville Central at #1 Homewood-Flossmoor
#17 Bolingbrook at #16 Maine South
#25 Huntley at #8 Oswego East
#24 Jacobs at #9 South Elgin

#29 Loyola at #4 Brother Rice
#20 Andrew at #13 Marist
#28 Warren at #5 Glenbard East
#21 West Aurora at #12 Stevenson

Lower Bracket
#31 Neuqua Valley at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Hinsdale Central at #15 Benet Academy
#26 New Trier at #7 Plainfield South
#23 Bartlett at #10 Evanston

#30 Sandburg at #3 Simeon
#19 Prospect at #14 Barrington
#27 Glenbard West at #6 Oswego
#22 St. Charles East at #11 Waubonsie Valley


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Granite City at #1 DeKalb
#17 Lincoln-Way West at #16 Reavis
#25 Normal at #8 Rolling Meadows
#24 Glenbrook North at #9 Yorkville

#29 Alton at #4 Hononegah
#20 Schaumburg at #13 Belleville West
#28 Wheaton North at #5 Hoffman Estates
#21 Lincoln-Way Central at #12 Wheaton-Warrenville South

Lower Bracket
#31 Highland Park at #2 Nazareth
#18 East St. Louis at #15 St. Charles North
#26 Moline at #7 Batavia
#23 Maine West at #10 TF South

#30 Oak Lawn at #3 Hersey
#19 Buffalo Grove at #14 Mt. Carmel
#27 Argo at #6 Harlem
#22 Larkin at #11 Willowbrook


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Hubbard
#9 Notre Dame #8 Belvidere North
#13 Wheeling at #4 Antioch
#12 St. Ignatius at #5 Kaneland

#15 Fenton at #2 Kenwood
#10 Hinsdale South at #7 Prairie Ridge
#14 Mather at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Lakes at #6 Amundson

Lower Bracket
#16 Phillips at #1 Richards
#9 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #8 Peoria
#13 Lemont at #4 Glenwood
#12 Quincy at #5 Shepard

#15 Bremen at #2 Providence
#10 Dunlap at #7 Bloomington
#14 Rock Island at #3 Washington
#11 Normal West at #6 Perspectives/Leadership


~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Hyde Park at #1 St. Francis
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Ridgewood
#13 Glenbard South at #4 Back of the Yards
#12 Boylan Catholic at #5 Montini

#15 St. Laurence at #2 Payton
#10 Marian Central Catholic at #7 Westinghouse
#14 Rochelle at #3 Sterling
#11 Elmwood Park at #6 Sycamore

Lower Bracket
#16 Rich Central at #1 Morton
#9 MacArthur #8 Cahokia
#13 Rich East at #4 Carbondale
#12 Mount Zion at #5 Highland

#15 Marion at #2 Metamora
#10 Mattoon at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Morris at #3 Hillcrest
#11 Mascoutah at #6 Joliet Catholic


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Carver Military/Bronzeville at #1 Immaculate Conception
#9 Johnsburg #8 Stillman Valley
#13 Marengo at #4 Bishop McNamara
#12 Sandwich at #5 Clark

#15 Plano at #2 Genoa-Kingston
#10 Agricultural Science at #7 Raby
#14 Wheaton Academy at #3 Richmond-Burton
#11 Urban Prep/Bronzeville at #6 Coal City

Lower Bracket
#16 East Alton-Wood River at #1 Clinton
#9 Freeburg #8 Breese Central
#13 Monmouth-Roseville at #4 Breese Mater Dei
#12 Prairie Central at #5 Paris

#15 Effingham at #2 Rochester
#10 Murphysboro at #7 Taylorville
#14 Herrin at #3 Pontiac
#11 Herscher at #6 Columbia

Corey, there is no need to take it serious.... it's 4 weeks of info. And to clarify, I don't have East #2, the IHSA does.

Topiary, the IHSA doesn't seed on current polls and performance. That's the point of the exercise.

PanthersWildcats, thanks! I'm sure that division will have a qualifier in due time anyways. In the meantime, if they're all out, I'll leave 'em all out.

Queen and Krock, Rice is not designated an 8A or 7A team until the season ends. They are not the smallest team in 8A in this Outlook. They have an enrollment of 2290. Glenbard East (2263), Plainfield East (2250), and Simeon (2202) are all smaller in the faux-8A of today, as well as non-qualifiers DGN, Stagg, Glenbard North, McHenry, and Proviso West.
I'm not sure why people think they are pre-destined for 7A. Maybe their enrollment is down, or 2290 is usually 7A, not really sure. But regardless of the preconceived notions, they still need 32 schools bigger than them to qualify for the playoffs before they slotted down to 7A. Right now, only 28 bigger schools are qualified. And things are not looking good for several bigger 8A teams that usually get in, like Palatine, Fremd, Naperville North, Taft, Edwardsville, LT, DGS, and Leyden. When all is said and done, Rice might be destined for 7A... but they aren't pre-destined for anywhere.

 

[Gene K.]

Catch 22: Your up kinda of late! Good work on this thread!

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Edwardsville will be making the playoffs. They are past their crazy 4 game brutal schedule portion of their schedule. I could see them running the table the next 5 games and finishing 6-3. Probably at worst 5-4 with tons of playoff points.

 

[HRCJR]

BR is 7A this year

As of now this is undetermined. Not determined until 20 October

 

[Snetsrak61]

Edwardsville will be making the playoffs. They are past their crazy 4 game brutal schedule portion of their schedule. I could see them running the table the next 5 games and finishing 6-3. Probably at worst 5-4 with tons of playoff points.

That's not the point of this exercise lol

 

[MC63]

I wasn't sure I was going to do this again this season. I have only made it to one game so far, and I left in the 2nd quarter after a 2 hour non-lightning delay. I've been very busy with poor softball pitching, wheezing through OrangeTheory workouts, and stammering wedding officiating. But, I found some free time after the Diamondbacks hung an early 5-spot on the Beloved Cub.

For the newbies, every Monday (ahem, Wednesday) I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standing were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't NEED to adjust for the teams from the CPS "Chicago" conferences anymore, because they are all ineligible. WOO-HOO!!!! The Outlook STILL doesn't adjust for a conference champion falling below the cutoff. I take care of all that before proceeding.

Is this a huge waste of time? Yes. But some people seem to like it, and I like bracketing things, so I'll waste some time on the next 5 Mondays (-ish) for the enjoyment of Edgy's minions. Where you can find some value is in the cutoff for each class, the north/south line between brackets in 1A thru 6A, and how some teams relate to others in terms of playoff points. For example, Glenbard West was a 7A team for a decade. But their ascension to 8A in 2014 should not have been a big surprise because I was showing you they would likely end up in 8A for over a month.

Anyways.....

I don't want to get too detailed for the first Playoff Outlook. The IHSA did a TERRIBLE job organizing the Outlook this week. Take a look at how bad it is when you get a chance. It was the Outlook updated at 3:59 PM Wednesday. 2-2/16 Salem IN in Class 4A, but 2-2/23 Argo OUT in 7A... in fact, 44 teams in 7A had better records than Salem. TERRIBLE!

I basically had to start from scratch. I inserted conference leaders Hyde Park, Carver Military, Plano, Rich Central, and Wood River-East Alton because they were below what I believed to be a 2-2/19 cutoff. Those 5 teams, along with every team better than 2-2 with 20 playoff points gave us 239 teams. 19 teams were left to vie for the final 17 playoff spots at 2-2/19. The lowest teams in the tie-breaker (victories by defeated opponents) were Crystal Lake South, Geneseo, and Conant, all having a zero. The other 16 teams qualify. NEXT tie-breaker, CLS gets in over Conant and Geneseo by having 6 playoff teams on the schedule, as opposed to 5 playoff opponents for the other two teams (I think). But maybe it should be Geneseo. I'll try harder next week. By the time I got this far, this miserable Outlook had me dunzo. No need to use my usual week 5 tie-breaker of eeny-meeny-meiny-moe. I'll always use all the official IHSA tie-breakers when the standings are a bit more forgiving, and the Outlook is CORRECT.

BTW, 2-2/19 is one point better than the cutoff last season in Week 5. From there, I adjust teams up and down into the proper classes to create 8 classes of 32 teams. The Outlook was so screwed up, I was left with 36 playoff teams in some classes and as few as 26 in others (per the Outlook). Biggest teams move up, smallest teams move down, yada yada yada, until we're balanced.

After years of whining about this post, IrishGlory's Vikings are in the top spot FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, and he's not around to enjoy it... At least, I don't think he is. Next week you get 8A thru 3A again, and I'll continue to add a class each week until week 8. For week 9, I give you the final projection with team nicknames, so look forward to that.

Pssst… how about those first two matchups in the top two quads of 8A?!?!? Unfortunately for Bones, it's a "Bones" year, with 8A way more daunting than 7A.

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Naperville Central at #1 Homewood-Flossmoor
#17 Bolingbrook at #16 Maine South
#25 Huntley at #8 Oswego East
#24 Jacobs at #9 South Elgin

#29 Loyola at #4 Brother Rice
#20 Andrew at #13 Marist
#28 Warren at #5 Glenbard East
#21 West Aurora at #12 Stevenson

Lower Bracket
#31 Neuqua Valley at #2 Lincoln-Way East
#18 Hinsdale Central at #15 Benet Academy
#26 New Trier at #7 Plainfield South
#23 Bartlett at #10 Evanston

#30 Sandburg at #3 Simeon
#19 Prospect at #14 Barrington
#27 Glenbard West at #6 Oswego
#22 St. Charles East at #11 Waubonsie Valley


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Granite City at #1 DeKalb
#17 Lincoln-Way West at #16 Reavis
#25 Normal at #8 Rolling Meadows
#24 Glenbrook North at #9 Yorkville

#29 Alton at #4 Hononegah
#20 Schaumburg at #13 Belleville West
#28 Wheaton North at #5 Hoffman Estates
#21 Lincoln-Way Central at #12 Wheaton-Warrenville South

Lower Bracket
#31 Highland Park at #2 Nazareth
#18 East St. Louis at #15 St. Charles North
#26 Moline at #7 Batavia
#23 Maine West at #10 TF South

#30 Oak Lawn at #3 Hersey
#19 Buffalo Grove at #14 Mt. Carmel
#27 Argo at #6 Harlem
#22 Larkin at #11 Willowbrook


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Crystal Lake South at #1 Hubbard
#9 Notre Dame #8 Belvidere North
#13 Wheeling at #4 Antioch
#12 St. Ignatius at #5 Kaneland

#15 Fenton at #2 Kenwood
#10 Hinsdale South at #7 Prairie Ridge
#14 Mather at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Lakes at #6 Amundson

Lower Bracket
#16 Phillips at #1 Richards
#9 Sacred Heart-Griffin at #8 Peoria
#13 Lemont at #4 Glenwood
#12 Quincy at #5 Shepard

#15 Bremen at #2 Providence
#10 Dunlap at #7 Bloomington
#14 Rock Island at #3 Washington
#11 Normal West at #6 Perspectives/Leadership


~~~ 5A ~~~
Upper Bracket
#16 Hyde Park at #1 St. Francis
#9 Evergreen Park #8 Ridgewood
#13 Glenbard South at #4 Back of the Yards
#12 Boylan Catholic at #5 Montini

#15 St. Laurence at #2 Payton
#10 Marian Central Catholic at #7 Westinghouse
#14 Rochelle at #3 Sterling
#11 Elmwood Park at #6 Sycamore

Lower Bracket
#16 Rich Central at #1 Morton
#9 MacArthur #8 Cahokia
#13 Rich East at #4 Carbondale
#12 Mount Zion at #5 Highland

#15 Marion at #2 Metamora
#10 Mattoon at #7 LaSalle-Peru
#14 Morris at #3 Hillcrest
#11 Mascoutah at #6 Joliet Catholic


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Carver Military/Bronzeville at #1 Immaculate Conception
#9 Johnsburg #8 Stillman Valley
#13 Marengo at #4 Bishop McNamara
#12 Sandwich at #5 Clark

#15 Plano at #2 Genoa-Kingston
#10 Agricultural Science at #7 Raby
#14 Wheaton Academy at #3 Richmond-Burton
#11 Urban Prep/Bronzeville at #6 Coal City

Lower Bracket
#16 East Alton-Wood River at #1 Clinton
#9 Freeburg #8 Breese Central
#13 Monmouth-Roseville at #4 Breese Mater Dei
#12 Prairie Central at #5 Paris

#15 Effingham at #2 Rochester
#10 Murphysboro at #7 Taylorville
#14 Herrin at #3 Pontiac
#11 Herscher at #6 Columbia

 

[crusader_of_90]

East Side and Naz in Roubd 2!

 

[corey90]

Corey, there is no need to take it serious.... it's 4 weeks of info. And to clarify, I don't have East #2, the IHSA does.

Topiary, the IHSA doesn't seed on current polls and performance. That's the point of the exercise.

PanthersWildcats, thanks! I'm sure that division will have a qualifier in due time anyways. In the meantime, if they're all out, I'll leave 'em all out.

Queen and Krock, Rice is not designated an 8A or 7A team until the season ends. They are not the smallest team in 8A in this Outlook. They have an enrollment of 2290. Glenbard East (2263), Plainfield East (2250), and Simeon (2202) are all smaller in the faux-8A of today, as well as non-qualifiers DGN, Stagg, Glenbard North, McHenry, and Proviso West.
I'm not sure why people think they are pre-destined for 7A. Maybe their enrollment is down, or 2290 is usually 7A, not really sure. But regardless of the preconceived notions, they still need 32 schools bigger than them to qualify for the playoffs before they slotted down to 7A. Right now, only 28 bigger schools are qualified. And things are not looking good for several bigger 8A teams that usually get in, like Palatine, Fremd, Naperville North, Taft, Edwardsville, LT, DGS, and Leyden. When all is said and done, Rice might be destined for 7A... but they aren't pre-destined for anywhere.

Catch we’re good. Just find it strange but hey will get it right next week

 

[playboymixx]

Edwardsville will be making the playoffs. They are past their crazy 4 game brutal schedule portion of their schedule. I could see them running the table the next 5 games and finishing 6-3. Probably at worst 5-4 with tons of playoff points.

There's a good chance Edwardsville could be 5-4. Belleville West is still on the schedule and looking tough. The Edwardsville QB is expected to return either next week or the week after, but one of the best players on defense was injured in practice and is out with a broken hand. Some good news though, is that the best defensive lineman (Purdue recruit) that we have should be back in a couple of weeks after being out all season so far. The coach still doesn't seem to be making the necessary adjustments with the offensive line though and until that happens, success will be limited. The center is STILL struggling with bad snaps and the other linemen still aren't getting any push. The coach is finally playing Deonte Rodgers (broke offensive records as a sophomore) both ways and using him on offense again. Coach still hasn't started playing some of the defensive linemen both ways as most think that he should. Another top player (Thigpen) was kicked off of the team. With the QB back and healthy and if adjustments are made with the o-line then Eville will be fine and could go deep in the playoffs.

 

[crusader_of_90]

There's a good chance Edwardsville could be 5-4. Belleville West is still on the schedule and looking tough. The Edwardsville QB is expected to return either next week or the week after, but one of the best players on defense was injured in practice and is out with a broken hand. Some good news though, is that the best defensive lineman (Purdue recruit) that we have should be back in a couple of weeks after being out all season so far. The coach still doesn't seem to be making the necessary adjustments with the offensive line though and until that happens, success will be limited. The center is STILL struggling with bad snaps and the other linemen still aren't getting any push. The coach is finally playing Deonte Rodgers (broke offensive records as a sophomore) both ways and using him on offense again. Coach still hasn't started playing some of the defensive linemen both ways as most think that he should. Another top player (Thigpen) was kicked off of the team. With the QB back and healthy and if adjustments are made with the o-line then Eville will be fine and could go deep in the playoffs.

Seems like a real assessment.

 

[capnbillhitters]

So many years doing this Catch and still funny to see people arguing with where you seeded there team. No matter how many times you explain... crazy.

What’s crazy is contemplating this field and realizing Glenbard East likely goes deeper than GW if these seedlings actually played out. Oswego is playing like world beaters and GE is beating the crap out of some solid programs.

Thanks so much for the solid work.

 

[PowerI66]

There's a good chance Edwardsville could be 5-4. Belleville West is still on the schedule and looking tough. The Edwardsville QB is expected to return either next week or the week after, but one of the best players on defense was injured in practice and is out with a broken hand. Some good news though, is that the best defensive lineman (Purdue recruit) that we have should be back in a couple of weeks after being out all season so far. The coach still doesn't seem to be making the necessary adjustments with the offensive line though and until that happens, success will be limited. The center is STILL struggling with bad snaps and the other linemen still aren't getting any push. The coach is finally playing Deonte Rodgers (broke offensive records as a sophomore) both ways and using him on offense again. Coach still hasn't started playing some of the defensive linemen both ways as most think that he should. Another top player (Thigpen) was kicked off of the team. With the QB back and healthy and if adjustments are made with the o-line then Eville will be fine and could go deep in the playoffs.

Is Rodgers the kid that started at RB against Palatine last year?

 

[crusader_of_90]

Is Rodgers the kid that started at RB against Palatine last year?

Rodgers was s Super Sophomore two years ago and was injured most of last season.

 

[playboymixx]

Is Rodgers the kid that started at RB against Palatine last year?

That was Johnson. As Crusader mentioned, Rodgers had a big year two years ago, but was injured and out most of last season. For the first 4 games of this season, the coach was mostly just using him on defense, but last night finally put him back on offense. If the coach makes adjustments with the offensive line, then the combo of Rodgers, Johnson and the QB will be tough to stop.

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

That was Johnson. As Crusader mentioned, Rodgers had a big year two years ago, but was injured and out most of last season. For the first 4 games of this season, the coach was mostly just using him on defense, but last night finally put him back on offense. If the coach makes adjustments with the offensive line, then the combo of Rodgers, Johnson and the QB will be tough to stop.

Why the heck wouldn’t they have implemented that earlier in the season?

 

[playboymixx]

Why the heck wouldn’t they have implemented that earlier in the season?

Everyone's been kinda scratching their heads about the coaching decisions this year. This also includes decisions to not put other players in at their best position.

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Everyone's been kinda scratching their heads about the coaching decisions this year. This also includes decisions to not put other players in at their best position.

Well at least it’s not too late to get those changes/tweaks made! Can’t say I am sad we slipped by Eville beforehand

 

[capnbillhitters]

Why the heck wouldn’t they have implemented that earlier in the season?

Everyone's been kinda scratching their heads about the coaching decisions this year. This also includes decisions to not put other players in at their best position.

Careful. Scratching one’s head in public can create waves.

 

[playboymixx]

Careful. Scratching one’s head in public can create waves.

lol I doubt anything will come of it.

 

[gags33]

I know it's all preliminary, and not in stone but kaneland is on the edge of 5a and 6a....won't know till the end of season I guess...but it will be fun to watch this as the year goes on. Very entertaining