What are the chances the Upstate 8 expands?
Sorry in advance for this long answer...but this is the Million Dollar Question, and there's no EASY answer for it. I've read these types of questions/comments on here for months and I've been reluctant to reply, but here are my convoluted thoughts:
1) Expansion looks great on paper, and in football it just might be, but what would it do for the other 27 sports? Adding DeKalb (as was discussed years ago) makes for a terrible Tuesday Night VB game between Fenton and DeKalb.
2) Who do you add?
*Riverside-Brookfield? - Yes! But that doesn't "move the needle" for South Elgin's playoff hopes (or GBE's). And it would leave an odd number of teams.
*West Aurora? - Yes! But no needle movement there either (playing West Aurora won't help South Elgin get past Maine South, Marist or Brother Rice...their only losses in the last 4 seasons).
*MSL East Schools? Yes and no! Hersey and Prospect help the conference. Elk Grove, Wheeling, BG and the new RM regime do not. Look at those drive times for a sophomore baseball game too...
3) SE, GBE would benefit from a non-con schedule of 1-2 games, but finding those games is not easy and I remember when South Elgin had to shame St. Viator on Twitter into playing during the COVID year. Who's to say finding a "worthy opponent" would be easy? Then you have to look at the bottom of the conference, who would they find non-con? CPS schools (how does that help?) or Maine East/Round Lake? This isn't an easy fix for 10-12 schools and 1-2 games each.
4) GBE was within 2 points of Minooka this year, and SE has been to the 2nd round each of the last 3 playoff seasons. GBS generally wins one playoff game (this school is the underachiever if you look at sheer talent). Can anyone expect Larkin, Elgin or Bartlett to be competitive in the 7A or 8A playoffs? No disrespect intended, but those schools would struggle even if they played better "non-con" opponents. I have theories as to why but that's for another time.
5) Every conference has good and bad teams (granted some more then others) and there has been a lack of playoff success from many schools that are touted on this board. The idea that a tougher conference would help SE or GBE win state is slightly overrated.
For example, how many state championships have been won in football by the following 8A schools (historically)?
York
Hinsdale Central (played for one)
Lyons Township
Neuqua Valley
Waubonsie Valley
St. Charles East
Marist (played for two)
Palatine (played for two)
Fremd
Barrington (played for one)
Oswego
Oswego East
O'Fallon
Glenbrook South
Evanston
New Trier
Huntley
The answer is zero.
That's not intended as a shot at any of those schools, or even comparing their current football team to any Upstate Eight team, but the fact is they have NEVER won a state title and play in "better" conferences, with better non-con schedules.
6) Since 2008 (Hinsdale Centrals last attempt at a State title) there have been 13 state champions, and 26 teams in the 8A finals. Here's how it stacks up:
Loyola - 6 trips
Maine South - 5 trips
LWE - 3 trips
Mt. Carmel - 2 trips
Marist - 2 trips
Brother Rice - 1 trip
Warren - 1 trip
HF - 1 trip
Stevenson - 1 trip
Bolingbrook - 1 trip
and a few others but sporadic.
My point is; the wealth lies at the very top. ONLY A SELECT few schools are in the hunt in 8A, yet talk is always about strength of conference and non-cons.
I would love to see a discussion about these points. They're not Hersey/Batavia focused but worth talking about.