CalPreps and IL Playoffs

[RD_Watcher]

Digging around CalPreps this evening and found their accuracy breakdown page. For the last 6 weeks of the regular season, the algorithm had a record of 1347 - 222. That is just over an 85.6% correct rate.

In the three rounds of the playoffs so far, the algorithm has a record of 192 - 35; a 1 point drop to 84.6% correct rate (This is all classes, plus the prep-bowl). The most interesting week was quarterfinals, when a 31 - 4 correct prediction record was posted - predicting 100% winners in all classes EXCEPT 3A and Prep Bowl. To me, this indicates the algorithm is getting better with more data points.

For the semi's, here are CalPreps predictions -

1A PLAYOFFS
Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) at Forreston (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) 35-14]
Central (Camp Point, IL) at Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL) 28-19]

2A PLAYOFFS
Tri-Valley (Downs, IL) at Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL) 31-22]
Johnston City (IL) at St. Teresa (Decatur, IL), 3:00pm [projection: St. Teresa (Decatur, IL) 42-20]

3A PLAYOFFS
Byron (IL) at Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL), 3:00pm [projection: Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL) 31-26]
Unity (Tolono, IL) at Williamsville (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Williamsville (IL) 22-20]

4A PLAYOFFS
Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) at St. Francis (Wheaton, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) 28-21]
Rochester (IL) at Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL), 7:00pm [projection: Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 38-28]

5A PLAYOFFS
Morris (IL) at Peoria (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Morris (IL) 34-31]
Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) at Sycamore (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Sycamore (IL) 31-14]

6A PLAYOFFS
East St. Louis (IL) at Lemont (IL), 2:00pm [projection: East St. Louis (IL) 42-14]
St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) at Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL) 42-40]

7A PLAYOFFS
Batavia (IL) at Lake Zurich (IL), 4:00pm [projection: Batavia (IL) 24-14]
Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) at St. Rita (Chicago, IL), 4:00pm [projection: Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 28-14]

8A PLAYOFFS
Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) at Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) 28-27]
Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) at York (Elmhurst, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) 28-22]

 

[RD_Watcher]

Of course, this could all be complete coincidence. But I'm tired of reading about Privates vs. Publics.

 

[stl705]

That’s an incredible win clip. Only surprise in predictions imo is GBW as favorites.

 

[RD_Watcher]

That’s an incredible win clip. Only surprise in predictions imo is GBW as favorites.

The 1 point spread suggests it's as close to a "pick-em" as the algorithm can get.

 

[TheWizardofWoodlawn]

You should check out their IL conference to conference comparisons, very interesting…

 

[Panthers1211]

You should check out their IL conference to conference comparisons, very interesting…

Where do you see that at

 

[ramblinman]

Digging around CalPreps this evening and found their accuracy breakdown page. For the last 6 weeks of the regular season, the algorithm had a record of 1347 - 222. That is just over an 85.6% correct rate.

In the three rounds of the playoffs so far, the algorithm has a record of 192 - 35; a 1 point drop to 84.6% correct rate (This is all classes, plus the prep-bowl). The most interesting week was quarterfinals, when a 31 - 4 correct prediction record was posted - predicting 100% winners in all classes EXCEPT 3A and Prep Bowl. To me, this indicates the algorithm is getting better with more data points.

For the semi's, here are CalPreps predictions -

1A PLAYOFFS
Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) at Forreston (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) 35-14]
Central (Camp Point, IL) at Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL) 28-19]

2A PLAYOFFS
Tri-Valley (Downs, IL) at Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL) 31-22]
Johnston City (IL) at St. Teresa (Decatur, IL), 3:00pm [projection: St. Teresa (Decatur, IL) 42-20]

3A PLAYOFFS
Byron (IL) at Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL), 3:00pm [projection: Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL) 31-26]
Unity (Tolono, IL) at Williamsville (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Williamsville (IL) 22-20]

4A PLAYOFFS
Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) at St. Francis (Wheaton, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) 28-21]
Rochester (IL) at Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL), 7:00pm [projection: Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 38-28]

5A PLAYOFFS
Morris (IL) at Peoria (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Morris (IL) 34-31]
Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) at Sycamore (IL), 2:00pm [projection: Sycamore (IL) 31-14]

6A PLAYOFFS
East St. Louis (IL) at Lemont (IL), 2:00pm [projection: East St. Louis (IL) 42-14]
St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) at Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL), 2:00pm [projection: Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL) 42-40]

7A PLAYOFFS
Batavia (IL) at Lake Zurich (IL), 4:00pm [projection: Batavia (IL) 24-14]
Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) at St. Rita (Chicago, IL), 4:00pm [projection: Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 28-14]

8A PLAYOFFS
Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) at Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) 28-27]
Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) at York (Elmhurst, IL), 1:00pm [projection: Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) 28-22]

Is the record you cite based solely on correctly predicting winners or if it is based on correctly predicting the spread? If winners, I wonder about their record against the predicted spread.

 

[RD_Watcher]

Is the record you cite based solely on correctly predicting winners or if it is based on correctly predicting the spread? If winners, I wonder about their record against the predicted spread.

It is solely winners. If I find time, I’ll look at the spread.

 

[4Afan]

Here are the quarter final actual results compared to their projections.

1A PLAYOFFS
Central (Camp Point, IL) 24 Greenfield/Northwestern (Greenfield, IL) 12 [projection: Central (Camp Point, IL) 24-17]
Forreston (IL) 20 Dakota (IL) 8 [projection: Forreston (IL) 35-21]
Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) 52 Fulton (IL) 14 [projection: Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL) 42-24]
Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL) 41 Tuscola (IL) 6 [projection: Ridgeview/Lexington (Colfax, IL) 34-17]

2A PLAYOFFS
Johnston City (IL) 42 Althoff Catholic (Belleville, IL) 32 [projection: Johnston City (IL) 27-20]
Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL) 21 Rockridge (Taylor Ridge, IL) 7 [projection: Maroa-Forsyth (Maroa, IL) 38-28]
St. Teresa (Decatur, IL) 37 Pana (IL) 12 [projection: St. Teresa (Decatur, IL) 46-26]
Tri-Valley (Downs, IL) 46 Knoxville (IL) 22 [projection: Tri-Valley (Downs, IL) 28-24]

3A PLAYOFFS
Byron (IL) 32 Reed-Custer (Braidwood, IL) 27 [projection: Reed-Custer (Braidwood, IL) 35-31]
Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL) 27 Princeton (IL) 20 [projection: Immaculate Conception (Elmhurst, IL) 31-28]
Unity (Tolono, IL) 14 Prairie Central (Fairbury, IL) 0 [projection: Prairie Central (Fairbury, IL) 35-22]
Williamsville (IL) 41 Olympia (Stanford, IL) 21 [projection: Williamsville (IL) 38-20]

4A PLAYOFFS
Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) 31 Richmond-Burton (Richmond, IL) 14 [projection: Providence Catholic (New Lenox, IL) 28-22]
Rochester (IL) 41 Carterville (IL) 28 [projection: Rochester (IL) 31-24]
Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 51 Murphysboro/Elverado (Murphysboro, IL) 13 [projection: Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, IL) 42-19]
St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 35 Rochelle (IL) 16 [projection: St. Francis (Wheaton, IL) 41-20]

5A PLAYOFFS
Morris (IL) 35 Mahomet-Seymour (Mahomet, IL) 14 [projection: Morris (IL) 38-28]
Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) 29 Morgan Park (Chicago, IL) 0 [projection: Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL) 31-19]
Peoria (IL) 36 Mascoutah (IL) 21 [projection: Peoria (IL) 44-28]
Sycamore (IL) 28 Sterling (IL) 0 [projection: Sycamore (IL) 38-14]

6A PLAYOFFS
East St. Louis (IL) 45 Crete-Monee (Crete, IL) 0 [projection: East St. Louis (IL) 42-17]
Lemont (IL) 14 Kenwood (Chicago, IL) 0 [projection: Lemont (IL) 31-22]
Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL) 69 Harlem (Machesney Park, IL) 28 [projection: Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake, IL) 52-19]
St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) 31 Notre Dame (Niles, IL) 6 [projection: St. Ignatius (Chicago, IL) 22-20]

7A PLAYOFFS
Batavia (IL) 17 Yorkville (IL) 6 [projection: Batavia (IL) 28-8]
Lake Zurich (IL) 29 Pekin (IL) 27 [projection: Lake Zurich (IL) 28-21]
Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 48 Brother Rice (Chicago, IL) 12 [projection: Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL) 38-14]
St. Rita (Chicago, IL) 28 St. Charles North (St. Charles, IL) 7 [projection: St. Rita (Chicago, IL) 26-17]

8A PLAYOFFS
Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) 37 Maine South (Park Ridge, IL) 34 [projection: Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL) 28-20]
Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 35 Warren Township (Gurnee, IL) 14 [projection: Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL) 28-21]
Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) 30 Lyons (LaGrange, IL) 17 [projection: Loyola Academy (Wilmette, IL) 35-21]
York (Elmhurst, IL) 24 Palatine (IL) 10 [projection: York (Elmhurst, IL) 28-21]

 

[Formicidae13]

Where do you see that at

calpreps.com

 

[tuccs]

calpreps.com

Thanks for that very interesting indeed!

 

[Alexander32]

The Northwest Upstate Illini Conference (mostly 1A) is three touchdowns better than the Upstate Eight Conference.

 

[TheWizardofWoodlawn]

Where do you see that at

calpreps.com

 

[RD_Watcher]

Is the record you cite based solely on correctly predicting winners or if it is based on correctly predicting the spread? If winners, I wonder about their record against the predicted spread.

I had some time with a brown beverage last night and did some data analysis to try providing a deeper look in the numbers. I only used the IHSA playoffs, not the PrepBowl Games.

Overall, CalPreps is 192-32 in correct picks (I'm not sure where I was off in my earlier post, but Excel does better math than I). In the table below, I use the following categories, broken down by class:
CalPreps predicted winner won = PWW
Winner Actual Game Point Differential = WAD
Winner Predicted Game Point Differential = WPD
Winner Spread Differential between Actual and Predicted = WSD
CalPreps predicted winner lost = PWL
Lost Actual Game Point Differential = LAD
Lost Predicted Game Point Differential = LPD
Lost Spread Differential between Actual and Predicted = LSD

All columns are averages for this Post Season only, so 3 weeks of data points.

2022​	PWW	WAD	WPD	WSD	PWL	LAD	LPD	lSD
1A	25​	29.53​	17.75​	11.78​	3​	4.67​	-0.78​	5.44​
2A	22​	22.28​	14.58​	7.69​	6​	5.42​	7.17​	-1.75​
3A	24​	22.15​	17.85​	4.30​	4​	17.50​	10.17​	7.33​
4A	25​	28.01​	19.46​	8.54​	3​	3.33​	2.33​	1.00​
5A	24​	29.34​	21.23​	8.11​	4​	10.44​	12.22​	-1.78​
6A	23​	30.78​	20.56​	10.21​	5​	8.22​	6.22​	2.00​
7A	26​	20.42​	18.67​	1.75​	2​	1.83​	0.33​	1.50​
8A	23​	22.13​	17.12​	5.01​	5​	4.94​	2.56​	2.39​
Total	192​	25.58​	18.40​	7.18​	32​	7.05​	5.03​	2.02​

 

[RD_Watcher]

So, this postseason, CalPreps has been best at predicting 7A - 93% with 1.75 differential between predicted spread and actual spread; and worst at predicting 2A - 79% with ~ 7 point differential between predicted spread and actual spread.