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Annual first round blowout rant

ramblinman

Well-Known Member
Jul 18, 2001
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Another year, another series of first round playoff blowouts, shutouts and running clocks.

What follows in italics is a summary analysis of 2017 first round games that were decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. The numbers in parentheses reflect 2016 numbers.

There were 52 (52) games decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. Of those, 19 (12) were shutouts and 32 (31) finished with a running clock. An additional 15 (20) teams scored between 2 and 9 points.

8 classes with 16 games in each class result in 128 first round games. Of those 128 first round games, 41% (41%) were decided by margins of 30 points or greater. Of those 128 games, 25% (24%), one out of every 4, ended with running clocks. Of those 128 games, 15% (9%) were shutouts.


And some of you think the playoffs will be improved by adding 0-9 and 1-8 teams?
 
Another year, another series of first round playoff blowouts, shutouts and running clocks.

What follows in italics is a summary analysis of 2017 first round games that were decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. The numbers in parentheses reflect 2016 numbers.

There were 52 (52) games decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. Of those, 19 (12) were shutouts and 32 (31) finished with a running clock. An additional 15 (20) teams scored between 2 and 9 points.

8 classes with 16 games in each class result in 128 first round games. Of those 128 first round games, 41% (41%) were decided by margins of 30 points or greater. Of those 128 games, 25% (24%), one out of every 4, ended with running clocks. Of those 128 games, 15% (9%) were shutouts.


And some of you think the playoffs will be improved by adding 0-9 and 1-8 teams?

Ramblin, sorry, respectfully, can't agree with you that the current field is over subscribed. Are there some teams that should not have been in playoffs? Sure, but, they are weeded out with the aforementioned beat down in the first round. Are there teams that were 5-4 and belonged in the field, yes. The two that came to mind immediately are Marian Central, injuries put their season in serious doubt, but, they squeaked in, healed up and beat a 9-0 team. Hinsdale South WAS THE LAST TEAM IN for the entire field and they took down a #1 seed.

On the opposite side is St. Viator, they had a very good early/mid part of season to get to their 5 wins, then got hit massively by injuries at key positions in weeks 7-8, so they lose by 40+. Did they belong there, yes, did they have bad injury luck and get crushed? Yes. So what do we say in week 7 we are going to reassess every team and see if they "belong"?

As you well know in football even with good teams you will get lopsided scores. Once the tide rolls against you, it can really roll. Doesn't mean you had no business being in the p/o. Sometimes when it gets to 21+ lead and the 2's come in, they start scoring even more on the opposite 2's.

Were there maybe 10%-15 of teams that were terrible and "did not belong" sure, but, how are you going to decide? If you are the winning team of a 30+ point win, and are in the stands, its boring, so what? Take your boredom knowing you will move on to the next round.

Don't know if I am for or against expanding, but, remember if they expand they remove one week of the "regular" season to do it, and in the process remove the problem of "non-cons" which have created many problems also.
 
Another year, another series of first round playoff blowouts, shutouts and running clocks.

What follows in italics is a summary analysis of 2017 first round games that were decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. The numbers in parentheses reflect 2016 numbers.

There were 52 (52) games decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. Of those, 19 (12) were shutouts and 32 (31) finished with a running clock. An additional 15 (20) teams scored between 2 and 9 points.

8 classes with 16 games in each class result in 128 first round games. Of those 128 first round games, 41% (41%) were decided by margins of 30 points or greater. Of those 128 games, 25% (24%), one out of every 4, ended with running clocks. Of those 128 games, 15% (9%) were shutouts.


And some of you think the playoffs will be improved by adding 0-9 and 1-8 teams?
Ramblin-
I do agree with much of what you say, however I think we may lose sight of the positives. I agree blowouts are not fun to watch or play in and safety is often a concern. Quality coaches can assess a situation and get their backups in as soon as possible which gives those kids an opportunity to play some significant minutes in a playoff game. Maybe the opponent is just starting to climb that mountain to respectability and sometimes the first step is showing up to the fight and getting your you know what kicked. Maybe those juniors get a taste and have an experience to show them how far they need to go and understand the work they need to put in to get to the next level of competitiveness in the playoffs. The expectations may change and the program starts to become one that expects to be 'there" every year. Is there anything that compares to football in terms of building excitement in a school building? Is it so bad for teammates to get together 10 years later and re-live their senior season and talk about making the playoffs for the first time in X amount of years and then getting slobberknocked by Loyola? Doesn't make them worse people because they lost, heck maybe the journey just getting there inspired them to great things as adults. They dealt with success and failure and those are pretty great life lessons. We get to wrapped up on this board about how good someone is and when someone isn't as good, well....it seems the answer is simply..."they must work harder". It may very well be the case in limited situations but I would beg to differ that is the difference. Trust me I am the farthest thing from give everyone a trophy person. That is why we keep score and that is why they award one 1st place trophy in each class. A 1A trophy is just as "cool" as the 8A trophy. Yes I know that 8A team just whoops the crap out of that 1A team, but that isn't the point now is it?

I think this board has a lot of really intelligent people who are passionate about "their" school and concerned about the sport. Let's find ways to make the game better and keep it around as football is under attack and quite frankly is suffering in so many schools. we all know the CPS is a mess, but look at all the great young men/athletes that come out of there every year. Maybe football helps them get to college and maybe paid for if they are talented enough. The discipline and teamwork that comes with the ups and downs provide valuable life-long lessons that are oblivious to talent. Seems as though this gets lost and yes everyone on here would acknowledge the positives but they seem to get lost when we complain about one team being better than another. Maybe that CPS school or a school that hasn't made the playoffs in years has that pep assembly that allows the team, coaches and all of the school puff their chest with pride. They may very well know the mountain they are staring at, but I believe that's how great programs should start. we should all want the game to get better and we should respect every coach and every player that is willing to put in the time and effort and dedication to play this great game. Some do it better than others but let's not look down on the programs just because they are not as good as some others.

I certainly am not attacking you, but let's see what we can do to make the game better. for example I am not in favor of everyone making the playoffs, but this conference jumping has to stop. Tell me the Wheatons and LP and Glenbard North's overall athletic programs are better off creating the Dukane conference. It doesn't add anymore depth of levels in all the sports programs they have. did it make sense for the St Chuck's, Geneva and Batavia? Yes it did but it really left the DVC teams in a bind and they really don't have a lot of options for scheduling in football as a result. The DVC was actually one of the most cordial conferences I have seen in terms of programs respecting one another from a coaches and administration perspective. Plus, great rivalries between the teams.

How about 7 classes of 48. yes, that's an additional 80 teams in. It isn't everyone, but pretty sure that would include a big chunk of the 4-5 teams. Seeds 1-16 get first round byes, so many of the "weaker" teams would get knocked out in the first round and hopefully create fewer blowouts. I know I haven't addressed seeding issues and that is a hot button but we just may be eliminating some blowouts and the seeding is no worse than what we have now and that doesn't mean we cannot devise something to improve it. I am against districts and love the 1-32 seeding as I get intrigued by some of the matchups that we get to see. I think coaches love the idea of playing teams they don't normally see. There would be a lot of work to do but it's a start. We have so many hot button topics (public/private for example) that could follow a revised playoff approach that just may stop the conference shuffling. Maybe we can all focus on the health of the game at every school. The game provides so much good and so many opportunities to those that are involved both on and off the field. Although I try, I can never re-pay the game all it has given me. Ramblin, I write this with the greatest respect to you and your love of the game.
 
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Are there some teams that should not have been in playoffs? Sure, but, they are weeded out with the aforementioned beat down in the first round. Are there teams that were 5-4 and belonged in the field, yes. The two that came to mind immediately are Marian Central, injuries put their season in serious doubt, but, they squeaked in, healed up and beat a 9-0 team. Hinsdale South WAS THE LAST TEAM IN for the entire field and they took down a #1 seed.

So we should put up with the annual blow out fest because of a handful of outliers?

On the opposite side is St. Viator, they had a very good early/mid part of season to get to their 5 wins, then got hit massively by injuries at key positions in weeks 7-8, so they lose by 40+. Did they belong there, yes, did they have bad injury luck and get crushed? Yes. So what do we say in week 7 we are going to reassess every team and see if they "belong"?

We create a playoff classification system that creates more competitive first round games. Perhaps there should be byes for 9-0 or 8-1 teams. Perhaps the field shouldn't be as large as it is. There are always going to be outliers, but you can't let them drive policy and best practice.

Were there maybe 10%-15 of teams that were terrible and "did not belong" sure, but, how are you going to decide? If you are the winning team of a 30+ point win, and are in the stands, its boring, so what? T.

It's not about the winning teams finding it boring. It's about the teams getting blown out and about wanting playoffs that are competitive. And, it's not 10%-15% of the teams that are uncompetitive. I already stated that 41% of the first round games were decided by margins of 30 pts or more and that 1 out of 4 of them ended in a running clock. Those are not outlier numbers.
 
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So we should put up with the annual blow out fest because of a handful of outliers?



We create a playoff classification system that creates more competitive first round games. Perhaps there should be byes for 9-0 or 8-1 teams. Perhaps the field shouldn't be as large as it is. There are always going to be outliers, but you can't let them drive policy and best practice.



It's not about the winning teams finding it boring. It's about the teams getting blown out and about having playoffs that are competitive. And, it's not 10%-15% of the teams that are uncompetitive. I already stated that 41% of the first round games were decided by margins of 30 pts or more and that 1 out of 4 of them ended in a running clock. Those are not outlier numbers.


Ramblin, I did not say 10%-15% were blow outs. I said 10%-15% "didn't belong". You missed the point. Once every 5 years is an outlier, I named 2 this year right off the top of my head. Marian Central a 5-4 team took down a 9-0 team. Hinsdale South took down a #1 seed and HS was the LAST team in. St. Viator got crushed with injuries at the end of the season. In my very narrow view, the Benet game against Maine West (a conference champion) was well on its way to a 40+ win when they called off the dogs at the start of Q4 subbing in the majority of positions. It could of easily been a blow out.

You want a bye for a 9-0 team? OK so how does Antioch get a bye when they lost to a 5-4 team? Or Trenton 9-1 (lost) Or an 8-1 Teams like Riverside Brookfield (who lost) or Crete-Monee (who lost) or Shepard (who lost)

Which one of those teams on EITHER side of the w/l did not belong? How do you decide a "good" 5-4 team over a "bad" 5-4 team? Who decides and how? Every system has flaws and will have bad outcomes, so what?
 
Ramblin, I did not say 10%-15% were blow outs. I said 10%-15% "didn't belong". You missed the point. Once every 5 years is an outlier, I named 2 this year right off the top of my head. Marian Central a 5-4 team took down a 9-0 team. Hinsdale South took down a #1 seed and HS was the LAST team in. St. Viator got crushed with injuries at the end of the season. In my very narrow view, the Benet game against Maine West (a conference champion) was well on its way to a 40+ win when they called off the dogs at the start of Q4 subbing in the majority of positions. It could of easily been a blow out.

You want a bye for a 9-0 team? OK so how does Antioch get a bye when they lost to a 5-4 team? Or Trenton 9-1 (lost) Or an 8-1 Teams like Riverside Brookfield (who lost) or Crete-Monee (who lost) or Shepard (who lost)

Which one of those teams on EITHER side of the w/l did not belong? How do you decide a "good" 5-4 team over a "bad" 5-4 team? Who decides and how? Every system has flaws and will have bad outcomes, so what?

Outlier is a relative term. Is once every five years an outlier? Sure...as are TWO TEAMS out of a 256-team field. How about five teams out of the same size field? Yes! Ten? Yes!

How do you decide good 5-4 teams from bad ones? By throwing the baby out with the bathwater and not having any 5-4 qualifiers at all. Year in and year out, the number of 5-4 teams that acquit themselves well in the playoffs, relative to the number of 5-4 teams that don't acquit themselves well, is not enough to allow their existence to drive policy and best practice.
 
Outlier is a relative term. Is once every five years an outlier? Sure...as are TWO TEAMS out of a 256-team field. How about five teams out of the same size field? Yes! Ten? Yes!

How do you decide good 5-4 teams from bad ones? By throwing the baby out with the bathwater and not having any 5-4 qualifiers at all. Year in and year out, the number of 5-4 teams that acquit themselves well in the playoffs, relative to the number of 5-4 teams that don't acquit themselves well, is not enough to allow their existence to drive policy and best practice.

Which is your opinion. Others have a different opinion. What about the 8-1 or 9-0 teams that lost? should we throw those out also since they were beaten by 5-4 teams? unless everyone plays the same teams in the regular season, it is irrelevant.
 
First round bye at the end of the season ... NO WAY! Any system with this as part of the plan will not be favored by coaches. This is not collegiate or professional football.
 
Which is your opinion. Others have a different opinion. What about the 8-1 or 9-0 teams that lost? should we throw those out also since they were beaten by 5-4 teams? unless everyone plays the same teams in the regular season, it is irrelevant.

How would you know to "throw out" 8-1 9-0 teams BEFORE they lose? You wouldn't. You keep them in there because, in general, 8-1 and 9-0 teams acquit themselves well in the playoffs. In general, 5-4 teams do not acquit themselves well in the playoffs.

That's not opinion. That's fact.
 
First round bye at the end of the season ... NO WAY! Any system with this as part of the plan will not be favored by coaches. This is not collegiate or professional football.

Hey, I don't like it either. But, given the choice of a first round bye or to have 41% of first round games decided by 30 points or more, I'm thinking the bye looks like a pretty attractive option. Look at the first round bye like you would a playoff play-in game by uncompetitive teams. You see this in IHSA regional hoops.
 
Ramblin,

Because of the gerrymandering of conferences we oft have this issue of whats a good 9-0, 8-1 and whats a bad 9-0, 8-1. Lets create meaningful conference rankings so that there is more than a won/loss total for the price of entry and silly opponents win points for seeding. Rather we need to tackle a more thorough interrogation of the total body of work. It might also solve the scheduling of buttercups to get to your necessary win total.

How would you know to "throw out" 8-1 9-0 teams BEFORE they lose? You wouldn't. You keep them in there because, in general, 8-1 and 9-0 teams acquit themselves well in the playoffs. In general, 5-4 teams do not acquit themselves well in the playoffs.

That's not opinion. That's fact.
 
Hey, I don't like it either. But, given the choice of a first round bye or to have 41% of first round games decided by 30 points or more, I'm thinking the bye looks like a pretty attractive option. Look at the first round bye like you would a playoff play-in game by uncompetitive teams. You see this in IHSA regional hoops.

Who determines who is not competitive? You? There are 5-4 teams that beat 9-0 teams. That 30+ point spread is a total misnomer. Some close games have a big spread in points if one team gets on a roll at the end. Just like some games that really aren't close on the field end up being close in score. You would deny kids playing in the post season WHO CAN WIN and it does happen, not once in a while but every year. But hey you don't like 30 point spreads in score so the hell with those kids who have 1 or 2 chances at post season in their lives. It is a totally capricious argument. We have a post season in tournament style exactly for this reason, crown the best team at the end. Not based on paper who is strong but by actual play at the end.
 
9 teams that were 5-4 won this weekend.

out of 47 the 5-4 teams or 20%
here is another number; 4 of the 9-0 teams lost
and one more 13 of the 8-1 teams lost, but, Ramblin would have them have a first round bye or not have to sully themselves playing 5-4 "bad" teams. it is why there is a tournament.
 
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Hey, I don't like it either. But, given the choice of a first round bye or to have 41% of first round games decided by 30 points or more, I'm thinking the bye looks like a pretty attractive option. Look at the first round bye like you would a playoff play-in game by uncompetitive teams. You see this in IHSA regional hoops.
Rather big difference between waiting an extra day or two for your 1st playoff game and waiting an entire extra week.
 
There are many inequities with the current playoff classification and seeding system.
Not an all inclusive list:
Number of classes, number of qualifiers, seeding criteria, closed vs open boundary, available population of open boundary, strength of regular season schedule and method of that determination.

First round blowouts are not the most egregious symptom of whatever problem exists, at least as far as I'm concerned. Pretty far down the list actually. Certainly is a result of seeding and number of participants.
I would gladly trade some first round blowouts/tune ups for a majority of epic battles in the quarterfinals and beyond. Not sure how we get there, but it is nice to dream big.
 
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It's a combination of classification and seeding. You can't remove a 8-1, 9-0 team from the playoffs (not including the non-playoff CPS schools in that statement). However, you can classify them and seed them more appropriately.
 
Another year, another series of first round playoff blowouts, shutouts and running clocks.

What follows in italics is a summary analysis of 2017 first round games that were decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. The numbers in parentheses reflect 2016 numbers.

There were 52 (52) games decided by margins of 30 pts or greater. Of those, 19 (12) were shutouts and 32 (31) finished with a running clock. An additional 15 (20) teams scored between 2 and 9 points.

8 classes with 16 games in each class result in 128 first round games. Of those 128 first round games, 41% (41%) were decided by margins of 30 points or greater. Of those 128 games, 25% (24%), one out of every 4, ended with running clocks. Of those 128 games, 15% (9%) were shutouts.


And some of you think the playoffs will be improved by adding 0-9 and 1-8 teams?

From Tin Men - "What day is today? Monday? It must be Bonanza day!!

Had this annual gem ringing in my ears while reading about the new "everybody gets a trophy" proposal to include everyone in the playoffs.
 
How many teams is too many?
How many classes is the correct amount?
How many teams per class is the correct amount?
How would any of this prevent the dreaded first round blowout?
Aren’t subsequent round blowouts progressively worse?
 
What do you guys think about the Indiana system where they draw? One year by chance(bad chance) they drew 0-9 vs 1-8 that winner vs 0-9 vs 1-8.Top bracket was 9-0 vs 9-0 and 9-0 vs 8-1.So round 3 you had 11-0 vs 2-9
 
What do you guys think about the Indiana system where they draw? One year by chance(bad chance) they drew 0-9 vs 1-8 that winner vs 0-9 vs 1-8.Top bracket was 9-0 vs 9-0 and 9-0 vs 8-1.So round 3 you had 11-0 vs 2-9

Would take a few good 63-6 first round games over that bracket.
 
I'm a fan of the week 1 playoff blowout. I think if you have a good team and they can cruise in the first round it helps them out rest up after a long season. It gives you better quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals in my opinion.
 
It's actually pretty interesting to go look at the scores class by class and seed by seed. The blowouts are by no means limited to 5-4 teams. It seems the upper middle classes saw the best Cinderella action this year, not sure if that's normally the case or not. One look at the 5A and 6A bracket makes any railing against 5-4 teams look silly. One look at 1A or 8A makes it look reasonable.

Not sure if how those results are year over year- I remember a 5-4 Marist making a run to a few years ago in 8A all the way to the championship game... where they themselves were blown out against a powerhouse Loyola who rolled over a lot of teams, but faced much tougher tests in the quarters and semis... and that was win the 1-32 seeding that was championed for so long here as a way to ensure the best teams met in the finals.

Not sure theres any solution really, there is just too much variance in the strength and weakness of HS athletics and just not enough time in a football season to weed out the lesser through a large enough sample size.
 
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Here would be a good statistical analysis for someone with too much time on their hands. Take the championship game results since expansion to 8A and run the same analysis. Also compare it to a random sampling of at least 100 results each for 1. Regular season non con matchup and 2. Regular season conference matchups. Then compare those blowout rates and see where, if anywhere the problem actually lies.
 
It's actually pretty interesting to go look at the scores class by class and seed by seed. The blowouts are by no means limited to 5-4 teams. It seems the upper middle classes saw the best Cinderella action this year, not sure if that's normally the case or not. One look at the 5A and 6A bracket makes any railing against 5-4 teams look silly. One look at 1A or 8A makes it look reasonable.

Not sure if how those results are year over year- I remember a 5-4 Marist making a run to a few years ago in 8A all the way to the championship game... where they themselves were blown out against a powerhouse Loyola who rolled over a lot of teams, but faced much tougher tests in the quarters and semis... and that was win the 1-32 seeding that was championed for so long here as a way to ensure the best teams met in the finals.

Not sure theres any solution really, there is just too much variance in the strength and weakness of HS athletics and just not enough time in a football season to weed out the lesser through a large enough sample size.



great post. and actually really spot on. because that is where the biggest variances in class sizes comes out.
I think for the most part this year was way more competitive thru all the class sizes. blowouts are part of the game. they are not going to stop. you can play 1 and 2 every year in the first round an half the time it will be a blowout. just watch the finals.
 
SR blew out ESL 48-12 in the second round of the 5A state (largest class) playoffs on their way to the 1978 state championship. I think ESL has done pretty well since then.
 
Ramblin-
I do agree with much of what you say

As I do you.

I agree blowouts are not fun to watch or play in and safety is often a concern. Quality coaches can assess a situation and get their backups in as soon as possible which gives those kids an opportunity to play some significant minutes in a playoff game. Maybe the opponent is just starting to climb that mountain to respectability and sometimes the first step is showing up to the fight and getting your you know what kicked. Maybe those juniors get a taste and have an experience to show them how far they need to go and understand the work they need to put in to get to the next level of competitiveness in the playoffs. The expectations may change and the program starts to become one that expects to be 'there" every year. Is there anything that compares to football in terms of building excitement in a school building? Is it so bad for teammates to get together 10 years later and re-live their senior season and talk about making the playoffs for the first time in X amount of years and then getting slobberknocked by Loyola? Doesn't make them worse people because they lost, heck maybe the journey just getting there inspired them to great things as adults. They dealt with success and failure and those are pretty great life lessons. We get to wrapped up on this board about how good someone is and when someone isn't as good, well....it seems the answer is simply..."they must work harder". It may very well be the case in limited situations but I would beg to differ that is the difference. Trust me I am the farthest thing from give everyone a trophy person. That is why we keep score and that is why they award one 1st place trophy in each class. A 1A trophy is just as "cool" as the 8A trophy. Yes I know that 8A team just whoops the crap out of that 1A team, but that isn't the point now is it?

You make a compelling argument. Seriously, I really like your approach.

My difficulty with it lies in my being unable to quantify the positive value that you and others seemingly place in playoff blowouts. I suggest that you would have a hard time quantifying that, too. As can be seen in the first post in this thread, it is easy to quantify the volume of blowouts in one year and the recurrence of them year after year.

Regardless of trying to quantify this or that, it all boils down to what each person's unique opinion of what football playoffs should be like. In my case, my opinion is based, more than anything else, on the context of my interest and passion for high school football, and that context is influenced primarily by history. I have been following Illinois football playoffs since they started back in the mid-70s when there were five classes and substantially more exclusive playoff fields.

If you look at the 1974 playoffs, there were 40 first round games. Of those 40, FOUR were decided by margins of 30 pts or more. That's 10% of the 1974 first round games, compared with 41% of the first round games in both 2016 and 2017 being decided by margins of 30 pts or more. That level of first round games competitiveness is representative of the context/history of what has formed my current opinion.

I certainly understand how fans who began following high school playoff football after the various class and playoff field expansions might not be of the same opinion as I am that playoff football should be "special" in the sense that they should NOT be for most schools and certainly not for all. What has happened is that schools and fans want in on that specialness, even if those schools are uncompetitive relative to the majority of other playoff qualifiers. The result has been that, over the years, we have expanded from playoff fields of 16 in each class to 32 in each class, and we have expanded from five classes to six to eight. Now, some people are saying that almost all schools should have (and, in some cases, deserve) a taste of that specialness, even if some of them don't win a single game all year and if the majority of them finish the regular season with a record of 4-5 or worse.

If you are familiar with the concept of mission creep, what has happened with football playoffs is textbook mission creep.

Some do it better than others but let's not look down on the programs just because they are not as good as some others.

If the playoffs are anything at all, they are to determine who is the best. My position is that I want the playoffs to determine the best of the best, and it seems like you and others want the playoffs to determine who is the best of them all. Playoffs are also a time to look up at, and celebrate, programs that experience regular season success. Doing so does not necessarily mean that anyone is looking down at those programs that are not as successful.

In this age of everyone getting a participation trophy, I have no problem giving those out to all schools and kids who play a nine game regular season. Seriously. All those great points you have made about the value of just participating in football and in supporting the sport apply equally well to the regular season and to simply participating in football in the first place.

All I am saying is that we should give a different and yes, more special, participation trophy to those schools that have done better than most in the nine game regular season. That playoff trophy doesn't have to be a physical trophy. It can simply be the knowledge that, through nine games, a playoff qualifier generated a won-loss record better than most other schools and is rewarded for doing so by the ability to play on.
 
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How many teams is too many?
How many classes is the correct amount?
How many teams per class is the correct amount?
How would any of this prevent the dreaded first round blowout?
Aren’t subsequent round blowouts progressively worse?

If you assembled all of the thoughts on this from this board, you could create full Encyclopedia Britannica set of books.

Straight answer from me:
  1. 6
  2. 32
  3. Maybe /maybe not, but eliminating 64 more teams from the 5-4 ranks ain't so bad no that DVC is breaking up and MC has skeedaddled to friendly colors.
  4. Subsequent rounds less likely, because at least both teams are proven winners in the playoff field
 
How many teams is too many?
How many classes is the correct amount?
How many teams per class is the correct amount?
How would any of this prevent the dreaded first round blowout?
Aren’t subsequent round blowouts progressively worse?

If you look at the 1974 playoffs, there were five classes of 16 teams each, creating 80 playoff qualifiers. That results in 40 first round playoff games. Of those 40, FOUR were decided by margins of 30 pts or more. That's 10% of the 1974 first round games, compared with 41% of the first round games in both 2016 and 2017 being decided by margins of 30 pts or more.

I'm not saying that there should be 80 total playoff qualifiers. I sure as hell am saying there should not be 512. I'm also saying that 256 playoff qualifiers result in too high a percentage of first round mismatches.
 
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As I do you.



You make a compelling argument. Seriously, I really like your approach.

My difficulty with it lies in my being unable to quantify the positive value that you and others seemingly place in playoff blowouts. I suggest that you would have a hard time quantifying that, too. As can be seen in the first post in this thread, it is easy to quantify the volume of blowouts in one year and the recurrence of them year after year.

Regardless of trying to quantify this or that, it all boils down to what each person's unique opinion of what football playoffs should be like. In my case, my opinion is based, more than anything else, on the context of my interest and passion for high school football, and that context is influenced primarily by history. I have been following Illinois football playoffs since they started back in the mid-70s when there were five classes and substantially more exclusive playoff fields.

If you look at the 1974 playoffs, there were 40 first round games. Of those 40, FOUR were decided by margins of 30 pts or more. That's 10% of the 1974 first round games, compared with 41% of the first round games in both 2016 and 2017 being decided by margins of 30 pts or more. That level of first round games competitiveness is representative of the context/history of what has formed my current opinion.

I certainly understand how fans who began following high school playoff football after the various class and playoff field expansions might not be of the same opinion as I am that playoff football should be "special" in the sense that they should NOT be for most schools and certainly not for all. What has happened is that schools and fans want in on that specialness, even if those schools are uncompetitive relative to the majority of other playoff qualifiers. The result has been that, over the years, we have expanded from playoff fields of 16 in each class to 32 in each class, and we have expanded from five classes to six to eight. Now, some people are saying that almost all schools should have (and, in some cases, deserve) a taste of that specialness, even if some of them don't win a single game all year and if the majority of them finish the regular season with a record of 4-5 or worse.

If you are familiar with the concept of mission creep, what has happened with football playoffs is textbook mission creep.



I don't think that people are looking down on programs that aren't as good as others. If the playoffs are anything at all, they are to determine who is the best. My position is that I want the playoffs to determine the best of the best, and it seems like you and others want the playoffs to determine who is the best of them all.

In this age of everyone getting a participation trophy, I have no problem giving those out to all schools and kids who play a nine game regular season. Seriously. All those great points you have made about the value of just participating in football and in supporting the sport apply equally well to the regular season and to simply participating in football in the first place.

All I am saying is that we should give a different and yes, more special, participation trophy to those schools that have done better than most in the nine game regular season. That playoff trophy doesn't have to be a physical trophy. It can simply be the knowledge that, through nine games, a playoff qualifier generated a won-loss record better than most other schools and is rewarded for doing so by the ability to play on.
Ramblin'-

I am a little slow and thought you were calling me a creeper as I think I have posted less than 10 messages in 15 years on this board! Anyway, you are 100% correct on the mission creep reference. My first real experiences with Illinois football wasn't until 1980, so all I know is the class system. I never thought that my/our focus would be trying to save the game. Unfortunately, I think that is where we are at. I want the best to emerge in every class just like you. I also agree that just by looking at the scoreboard there is no value in a blowout. My son played in the CCL and played baseball as well. I told him that an 18-4 loss in baseball makes you leave with a bruised ego and a 49-7 loss in football you may leave with bruised muscles, bones, or something worse. I don't want to create any more unhealthy scenarios like those. It does fall on coaches to help monitor those situations though. A team doesn't need to onside kick against a way less talented team to get to the running clock in the first half with 3 minutes to go in the game. Get your #2's in the game sooner, coaches know the teams that they can do this against. The "value" I refer to is having the opportunity to make the most out of an athlete's chance to play this great game. It doesn't bother me that a 4-5 school is able to have a pep assembly before their first round game and I may know that they have minimal chance to win their 1st round game let alone a state championship. It is about those kids' experience win, lose, or draw and maybe the positives that are drawn from the journey help inspire them to support the game and encourage their kids to play because of all the lessons they learned. Not overly familiar with the situation but look at Maine West and the year they had. Maybe they are a long way from being a 7A state champ, but they are much closer than they were just a few years ago. Maybe this group and the ones before it were a part of what lays the groundwork for a Championship program in 5 years. Maybe not, but I have to believe that those players and these coaches have a tremendous sense of pride in where they are and the possibilities ahead.

A better way to seed 1-32 needs to be drawn up but the current system is much better to me than Districts. If we went with 48 teams in 7 classes and gave byes to 1-16 maybe more of the games would be closer and it would also eliminate some grossly mismatched 1st round games. More teams in but not all so not quite everyone gets a trophy and maybe that really good 4-5 team that plays in a great conference gets in the playoffs at the class they belong in. Two examples would be Providence and Lake Forest as they are typically strong programs that play bigger opponents. Just an example not the only focus of mine. The cream typically rises to the top and it should and those teams should be rewarded more. I wonder what the game will be like for my grandkids. There are a lot of people on this forum that have great connections or even pull to help the game. I am looking for anything to save the game and preserve all the good for the next generation.

One last thought regarding the statistics of blowouts. The addition of more classes allowing more teams in and seeding will inherently create these scenarios. I also believe the changes in rules and the evolution of offenses has exacerbated these statistics. Maybe a 1978 Joliet Catholic 28-0 beat down of Joliet West was actually worse than a 49-7 win in today's world. I am a Joliet West grad so I felt Ok using them as an example! You and I may not remember that team or that game, but those players do and that is what is important. Not sure if he was at JC at that time but maybe those guys from West get together and reminisce about getting run over by Ricky Thayer! My apologies to all for the somewhat disjointed ramblings!
 
I think 1-32 seeding solves a lot. Give me that for all 8 classes and I'm happy. Adjust how you seed as the next step and I'm ecstatic.
 
SR blew out ESL 48-12 in the second round of the 5A state (largest class) playoffs on their way to the 1978 state championship. I think ESL has done pretty well since then.

I remember that game like yesterday. ESL had a young team and Rita was tough that year it. ESL bounced back the next year to win the 5A title.
 
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I remember that game like yesterday. ESL had a young team and Rita was tough that year it. ESL bounced back the next year to win the 5A title.
SR went to Parsons in 83 semis and lost to ESL 8-0 in a torrential downpour with 0 yard markers and the 4 or 5 inches of standing water in many places on the field. I remember that one like yesterday.
 
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