4-5 teams and playoffs

[Jrc1282]

So with the current strike causing havoc for the Chicago schools and with us going into week nine, looking at the IHSA site of playoff projections do we really think there is a possibility of a few 4-5 teams making it in? If so where do you think the cut line is.
I know there’s been a bunch of discussion about the topic. Is there really any hope or has that ship sailed off.

 

[tmjgrady]

Marist would be first 4-5 team in the tourney based on their brutal schedule (well, playoff points to be more specific) But first all the 5-4 teams with weak playoff points would be in before that - and what? ......typically about 5-8 teams each year with a 5-4 record and playoff points at about 35 and under do not make the cut?? Plus not sure what the IHSA proposes for CPS teams and its impact to the rest of the field. Will they slot teams in on Saturday night and hope strike is soon thereafter settled (assuming strike prolongs for the rest of this week).

 

[Coalertown44]

I see the CPS has already had their Soccer teams FFT Tuesday and Wednesday games.I would assume they think the strike will last at least that long. And I assume they need to practice by Wednesday in order to play this weekend

 

[ESCC fan]

I see the CPS has already had their Soccer teams FFT Tuesday and Wednesday games.I would assume they think the strike will last at least that long. And I assume they need to practice by Wednesday in order to play this weekend

Real shame too. Lot of good CPS soccer teams had their seasons end early.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Marist would be first 4-5 team in the tourney based on their brutal schedule (well, playoff points to be more specific) But first all the 5-4 teams with weak playoff points would be in before that - and what? ......typically about 5-8 teams each year with a 5-4 record and playoff points at about 35 and under do not make the cut?? Plus not sure what the IHSA proposes for CPS teams and its impact to the rest of the field. Will they slot teams in on Saturday night and hope strike is soon thereafter settled (assuming strike prolongs for the rest of this week).

Yes if they have the needed 5-6 wins and/or enough playoff points and played minimum of 8 games they are getting slotted even if they can’t eventually play. Where openings will occur is if 4-4 teams or teams needing an 8th game (Simeon for instance) get week 9 cancelled. Then they won’t have qualified for the field of 256 but if you already have done enough (Phillips for instance) they will be in the bracket and have to forfiet if strike doesnt end by next Tuesday.

 

[missingwalter]

Marist would be first 4-5 team in the tourney based on their brutal schedule (well, playoff points to be more specific) But first all the 5-4 teams with weak playoff points would be in before that - and what? ......typically about 5-8 teams each year with a 5-4 record and playoff points at about 35 and under do not make the cut?? Plus not sure what the IHSA proposes for CPS teams and its impact to the rest of the field. Will they slot teams in on Saturday night and hope strike is soon thereafter settled (assuming strike prolongs for the rest of this week).

Joliet West will be the first 4-5 team, because they will win their conference.

 

[tmjgrady]

Yes if they have the needed 5-6 wins and/or enough playoff points and played minimum of 8 games they are getting slotted even if they can’t eventually play. Where openings will occur is if 4-4 teams or teams needing an 8th game (Simeon for instance) get week 9 cancelled. Then they won’t have qualified for the field of 256 but if you already have done enough (Phillips for instance) they will be in the bracket and have to forfiet if strike doesnt end by next Tuesday.

very interesting and thanks for the info - sounds doubtful that a 4-5 team can qualify so Marist has really no choice but to go out and beat LA this Saturday!

 

[tmjgrady]

Joliet West will be the first 4-5 team, because they will win their conference.

maybe/maybe not - I guess it is up to the Conference to designate their "official rep" as champ - and I understand that they may be self-serving in designating JW as the conf champ in case of 3 way tie so as to get more teams in -

 

[missingwalter]

maybe/maybe not - I guess it is up to the Conference to designate their "official rep" as champ - and I understand that they may be self-serving in designating JW as the conf champ in case of 3 way tie so as to get more teams in -

I'm fairly confident they will designate JW. Even more so, because JW will likely play the winner of Minooka/Oswego.

 

[wasdo]

A 4/5 team entering the playoffs is sending a bad signal.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

A 4/5 team entering the playoffs is sending a bad signal.

It’s not a signal. This wouldn’t be due to expansion of the playoff field by a rule change. They simply take the top 256 records and if due to a rare outcome this season a 4-5 team qualifies they qualify... what do you want to do just put a BYE in their place?

 

[eagles2k3]

It's going to be close. The first 4-5 teams in would be Naperville Central, St. Laurence and Marist if they lose. After that It's Lockport, Palatine, Delasalle(if they all win).

There are 60 something 4-4 teams right now. For the 4-5 teams to get in you're going to need about 30 of them to lose.

 

[tmjgrady]

It's going to be close. The first 4-5 teams in would be Naperville Central, St. Laurence and Marist if they lose. After that It's Lockport, Palatine, Delasalle(if they all win).

There are 60 something 4-4 teams right now. For the 4-5 teams to get in you're going to need about 30 of them to lose.

I told my son that it looks like York Dukes are about 4th or 5th in line of possible 4-5 teams to qualify - he is keeping his hopes alive!!!! I told him I imagine they have a 1.75% chance of qualifying ....

 

[Magnum Opus]

I told my son that it looks like York Dukes are about 4th or 5th in line of possible 4-5 teams to qualify - he is keeping his hopes alive!!!! I told him I imagine they have a 1.75% chance of qualifying ....

Hows he feeling after the last game? He did a nice job!

 

[cornerrat]

All.... One never knows but I wouldn't hold your breath on the 4-5 teams. Other than those that win their conference with that record.18 5-4's didn't get in last year with Watseka winning the one spot tie breaker limping in. Ratsy

 

[tmjgrady]

Hows he feeling after the last game? He did a nice job!

He did not play - a reserve who did not even suit up but he and his buddies were quite down last Friday - several guys in tears - I gave a couple players a ride home Friday, it was a very quiet car ride

 

[USD24]

maybe/maybe not - I guess it is up to the Conference to designate their "official rep" as champ - and I understand that they may be self-serving in designating JW as the conf champ in case of 3 way tie so as to get more teams in -

If there is a three way tie, Joliet West is in The conference tie-break rules are already set and West has the edge in the three way tie breaker.

 

[eagles2k3]

All.... One never knows but I wouldn't hold your breath on the 4-5 teams. Other than those that win their conference with that record.18 5-4's didn't get in last year with Watseka winning the one spot tie breaker limping in. Ratsy

This is an off year. It would take a lot for it to happen but it is very possible this year.

 

[Wilmatucky]

Joliet West will be the first 4-5 team, because they will win their conference.

They arn't the first 4-5 team in.......they are bumped into the conference representative category of qualifiers. So their record does not matter at that point.That's the way I understand it at least.........

 

[Wilmatucky]

They arn't the first 4-5 team in.......they are bumped into the conference representative category of qualifiers. So their record does not matter at that point.That's the way I understand it at least.........

I think technically in some bizarro world a 3-6 team can win their conference and be in.

 

[missingwalter]

They arn't the first 4-5 team in.......they are bumped into the conference representative category of qualifiers. So their record does not matter at that point.That's the way I understand it at least.........

I meant they'd be the first of the 4-5 teams in. I see what you're saying, but Soucie predicts them as the 32 seed in 8A, so I don't see any other at this point getting in.

 

[USD24]

I think technically in some bizarro world a 3-6 team can win their conference and be in.

You are correct, if Joliet West, Plainfield East and Plainfield South all lose, JT West would get in with a 3-6 record as the Southwest Prairie Conference Champion. All three schools would be 3-2 in conference and West holds the 3 team tie-breaker.

 

[Wilmatucky]

I meant they'd be the first of the 4-5 teams in. I see what you're saying, but Soucie predicts them as the 32 seed in 8A, so I don't see any other at this point getting in.

You missed what I meant....If they are the conference rep and have a 4-5 record they are getting in based off the conference title......there could still be other 4-5 teams that qualify after them......unless you are talking only 8A.....but according to IHSA site this is how teams qualify

Selecting the Playoff Teams
The first step is to select the 256 playoff teams. The process proceeds as follows:

All champions of conferences with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. The remaining schools are sorted by three categories:

First, by total wins
Second, by combined wins of all opponents
Third, by combined wins of all defeated opponents

 

[Magnum Opus]

He did not play - a reserve who did not even suit up but he and his buddies were quite down last Friday - several guys in tears - I gave a couple players a ride home Friday, it was a very quiet car ride

I'm sorry!

 

[missingwalter]

You missed what I meant....If they are the conference rep and have a 4-5 record they are getting in based off the conference title......there could still be other 4-5 teams that qualify after them......unless you are talking only 8A.....but according to IHSA site this is how teams qualify

Selecting the Playoff Teams
The first step is to select the 256 playoff teams. The process proceeds as follows:

All champions of conferences with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. The remaining schools are sorted by three categories:

First, by total wins
Second, by combined wins of all opponents
Third, by combined wins of all defeated opponents

I was pretty much only talking about 8A, since the team I support will be affected in some way, but I did understand what you were saying

 

[SWsuburbs4]

The conference tie-break rules are already set and West has the edge in the three way tie breaker.

Can you explain what the tie-breaker is for a three-way tie? Assuming a two-way tie is head-to-head, correct?

 

[missingwalter]

Can you explain what the tie-breaker is for a three-way tie? Assuming a two-way tie is head-to-head, correct?

It's points against from the two games against the other two teams.

 

[USD24]

Can you explain what the tie-breaker is for a three-way tie? Assuming a two-way tie is head-to-head, correct?

I would assume so, and it would be a huge upset if any of the three teams currently tied for first lost.

 

[USD24]

Just did some looking. Wow, is the Suburban Prairie East Conference bad! They were 2-22 out of conference. They only two wins vs West Aurora. And WA was 2-6...its only two wins vs JT Central and Romeoville. Yikes!

 

[missingwalter]

Yeah, but in the end, they will probably get 8 playoff teams out of the East and West.

 

[King MJ]

There are 60 something 4-4 teams right now. For the 4-5 teams to get in you're going to need about 30 of them to lose.

Its actually less than that. There are 7 4-4 CPS teams. Assuming no week 9, that drops it to 23 of our 59 which need to lose. Looks at games, it feels like its more likely than not this occurs.

The winner of Minooka / Oswego could likely end up getting screwed in a big way come saturday night.

 

[missingwalter]

Its actually less than that. There are 7 4-4 CPS teams. Assuming no week 9, that drops it to 23 of our 59 which need to lose. Looks at games, it feels like its more likely than not this occurs.

The winner of Minooka / Oswego could likely end up getting screwed in a big way come saturday night.

Curie and Taft are the only two 8A teams predicted to get in right now from CPS. I'm thinking JW is likely your 32 seed.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Its actually less than that. There are 7 4-4 CPS teams. Assuming no week 9, that drops it to 23 of our 59 which need to lose. Looks at games, it feels like its more likely than not this occurs.

The winner of Minooka / Oswego could likely end up getting screwed in a big way come saturday night.

Weird your reply said it was quoting my post but that wasn’t my post!??

 

[Bwm57]

Can you explain what the tie-breaker is for a three-way tie? Assuming a two-way tie is head-to-head, correct?

I believe the conference can set their own tie breaker rules. I don’t think they are mandated by the IHSA.
The IHSA only has tiebreak rules for at large teams as far as I know.
Anyone know differently?

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

Not only is 4-5 possible, but a small school push is possible...per IHSA outlook...

1A 30@5, 7 4-4 teams, only 1 plays a better record, 1 4-4 plays a 4A 4-4 so lets predict 35 5 win teams

2A 25@5, 9 4-4 teams, 4 play better records, 2 play each other so 29

3A 29@5, 8 4-4, 1 plays better record, 0 4-4 matchups so 36

4A 26@5, 9 4-4, 1 4-3, 3 play better records, 2 play each other, 1 4-4 plays the 1A, 2 CPS so 30

5A 30@5, 10 4-4, 3 play better records, 3 CPS (1 plays better record), 0 4-4 so 35

6A 29@5, 5 4-4, 2 play better records, 1 plays 8A 4-4 so 31

7A 27@5 9 4-4, 5 play better records, 2 play each other, 1 CPS minus Simeon so 28

8A 26@5, 11 4-4, 5 play better records, 2 play each other, 1 plays 6A 4-4 plus Joliet West Rep...so 32

This assumes no upsets...but looks like the biggest in 3A & up will shrink a bit...

 

[Jrc1282]

I have never understood that page (playoff outlook)don’t they use the playoff clinchers and hopefulls to seed the brackets and the playoff outlook page is kind of bogus.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

I have never understood that page (playoff outlook)don’t they use the playoff clinchers and hopefulls to seed the brackets and the playoff outlook page is kind of bogus.

The outlook page shows you what teams are likely to fall into what class. And until you have teams in the right class you can’t seed them. The clinchers page would only work if there was one 256 team class.

 

[Catch--22]

Clinchers and champs are in automatically, then the best of the rest fill out the remaining spots until they have 256.

Then they are reshuffled by wins, then playoff points, then size. The seeding is strictly by wins, playoff points, and the other tie-breakers detailed in the Outlook. All the 9-0 teams first, then the 8-1 teams, etc. An 8-1 “at large” team is still ranked ahead of a 7-2 conference champ or even a 7-2 team they lost to.

 

[Jrc1282]

Ok so at this point the playoff outlook page doesn’t mean squat besides a at this moment look “if it ended today look”

 

[eagles2k3]

Ok so at this point the playoff outlook page doesn’t mean squat besides a at this moment look “if it ended today look”

No not at all. It allows the possible qualifiers to see where they may either be in or out. It’s very helpful