Friday 7 PM
Rochester (11-1) at SHG (12-0)
Recap of Week 1 Game: SHG was returning 15 starters from their 2021 4A runner-up team, including QB Ty Lott, all four starting WR’s on offense, and a good core of LB’s and DB’s on defense. Rochester had lost Hank Beatty and his 3,600 yards of total offense along with 49 total TD‘s to graduation. The Rockets were to return a total of 7 starters, which became 6 when a starting Offensive Lineman was lost for the season before it even began. I felt there was no path to a Rocket victory in Week 1, too much returning SHG experience coupled with the Rockets poor history at Ken Leonard Stadium (more on that later).
SHG jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead, Rochester rallied to within 27-21 in the 3rd Quarter, and then the Cyclones scored 35 of the last 41 points to win 62-27. Rochester lost the turnover battle 3-0 and stopped the SHG offense only once, when the Cyclones could only run a single play before halftime. The Rockets got some pressure on Ty Lott, but SHG was always able to convert on 3rd and even 4th and long. A pivotal play in the first half saw Ty Lott complete a 50 yard pass to Jake Hamilton on 4th and 15. Both the pass and catch were perfect. The positives for the Rockets were the play of QB Keeton Reiss making his 1st start and a solid effort by the Offensive Line.
Since Week 1, SHG has blitzed all their opponents, with the exception of a much tougher than expected 28-16 win at Waterloo in Week 11. Rochester has won 11 straight, most by running clocks. Both teams score lots of points but have defenses that have been stingy. The Cyclones often are able to score in just 2-4 plays and also have the ability to get TD’s both on kick and punt returns. SHG has not allowed any team to score more than 27 points. Led by Reiss and WR Parker Gillespie, the Rocket offense has scored more than 40 points in 10 of 12 games. After giving up 62 points to SHG, the Rocket defense has made significant improvements and was critical in wins over Chatham and Effingham.
So in Week 13, is there a path to a Rocket victory? Yes, but it’s a more narrow path than for SHG. What would a Rochester win look like? First, they need to break even or have fewer turnovers than the Cyclones. Second, the Rockets can’t allow any big SHG kickoff or punt returns. SHG got a huge momentum lift against Waterloo when trailing 9-0 in the 3rd Quarter, they got their first score on a kickoff return. Keshon Singleton is a threat on both kick and punt returns, and he is not their only return option. Finally, the defense has to get several stops to not force the offense into having to score every possession. Even when SHG scores, it will help the Rockets if they are forced to take 8-10 plays to do so.
What still makes the Rockets an underdog in Week 13? First, the SHG offense has so many weapons that it is extremely difficult to cover everyone. Trailing 25-7 in the first half of the semifinals last year, SHG started making one big play after another on offense and eventually wore out the Rocket defense. If anything, they are even more dangerous on offense this year. Second, for whatever reason, Rochester has a history of underperforming at Ken Leonard Stadium. Not only have the Rockets never won, I don’t think they’ve even led in a game since 2012. It seems like no sooner than finding my seat, the Cyclones have a 14-0 1st Quarter lead and it becomes an uphill struggle. Finally, you can’t underestimate how badly SHG wants to get back to Champaign in Ken’s last season to give him a chance at a 6th state title. One more win gets SHG that chance.
This has been one of my favorite Rocket teams. With only 17 Seniors, they have really exceeded my expectations. After Week 1, I thought 6-3 or 7-2 was possible. Not a bad record but that’s a down year for Rochester. After the Week 1 loss, they didn’t pout or blink. They’ve gotten better every week. Their leader is a 250 pound QB who mostly played defense until this season. This is still a fairly young team, with 11 Juniors starting along with 11 Seniors. I will be thrilled to be proven wrong with this prediction, but the Cyclones still have the advantage. SHG 45 Rochester 35.
