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What did we learn week 6!?!?

#5. Losing 3 star players has killed Argo & 2 star players St.Laurence
#5. Losing 3 star players has killed Argo & 2 star players St.Laurence
Maybe they should have pulled their starters up 35 late in the 4th instead of trying to run up the score against a former coach.
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Who is your top rival?

I had a conversation with a JCA fan 2 weeks ago and I’ve been thinking about this since. Nice guy, we talked about the game and programs and he informed me that JCA had this game circled. Makes perfect sense as it was a title game rematch that Naz won so JCA wanted it. I was a little surprised when he told me that Naz was JCA’s biggest rival, I assume he’s a father that hasn’t been around the program for too long but recent history would indicate a rivalry.

When I expressed that I was surprised he asked me who Naz’s biggest rival was. I didn’t have a great answer. The program has evolved so much and conference realignment changes things almost yearly. For a long time the answer was Riverside Brookfield but that game went the way of the dinosaurs. Benet would be a logical answer but that’s more of a school thing. The rivalry is very one sided. Fenwick, IC and St Francis seem like decent choices but there’s just not enough history there. So I didn’t have a good answer for him, still don’t and with the ever changing CCL I’m not sure we’ll see a consistent rival either way.

I am definitely interested to hear what other people think and why, because for most this is really shaped on their experiences.
Kids want to beat who has been the thorn in their side in recent years, that is natural. For JC kids, that was likely Montini from 2009-2015 and Naz of more recent vintage.

It was definitely PC and MC throughout much of the 90s and 00s with Morris a frequent playoff rival.

I think, schoolwide and programwide, the biggest rival feel is still PC. They have to keep playing semi regularly to keep that feel, but if they do, it is definitely Providence. Too many connections between the programs and too close geographically for it to not be. And the traditions are second to none.

There are two reasons why it is not MC any longer. One is obvious in that they haven't played in 17 years. The other is simply because MC is a legitimate 7A/8A program that can play with LWE, LA, etc each year. JC has years where they CAN do that, but it is not a given every single year. The enrollment disparity is real.

So yes, just like Ty Isaac most wanted to beat Montini because it is frustrating to lose to them, I am sure the current Hilltoppers would most love to play Naz in a rematch.

But overall, it has to be the Celtics as the Hilltoppers' biggest rival.

Montini Carmel

For 3A to have any interest, it is essential that Montini be in it. Rather than running roughshod on all their opponents, I'm sure Byron looks forward to the challenge of taking on Montini.
Other than Dixon, the BNC is down and that is a disadvantage Byron will have against Montini, who will be more battle-tested.
However, strange things often happen in football and it is possible these two teams might not meet.

6A is very interesting

All.... The only other possibility (see above post) is the sign up document to be turned into the Ihsa. Not finding a new one for 2024 so the 2023 turn in slip would be my point of reference. (It has two years listed at the top of the page.) It says it has to be turned in by Sept. 1 2023. Maybe you can submit to play up starting in the second year if so desired of the enrollment average. Which would according to the rules the two schools would also be 6A in 2025. A bit confusing. Ratsy
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Projected Playoff Brackets based on Massey

And smaller schools....
4A3A2A1A
1​
Breese (9-0)
1​
St Joseph-Ogden (9-0)
1​
Wilmington (9-0)
1​
Lena Winslow (9-0)
32​
Harrisburg (5-4)
32​
Carver (5-3)
32​
Bp McNamara (4-5)
32​
Central A&M (5-4)
16​
Dyett (7-2)
16​
New Berlin (7-2)
16​
Elmwood (7-2)
16​
Savanna (7-2)
17​
Chi-Sullivan (7-2)
17​
Chi-Marshall (7-1)
17​
Warrensburg-Latham (7-2)
17​
Rockford Luth (6-3)
8​
University-Norm (7-2)
8​
N Lawndale Col Prep (8-1)
8​
Pana (8-1)
8​
Gibson City (8-1)
25​
Notre Dame-Peoria (5-4)
25​
Fairfield (6-3)
25​
El Paso-Gridley (5-4)
25​
Stockton (5-4)
9​
Cahokia (7-2)
9​
Sullivan (8-1)
9​
Chester (8-1)
9​
Casey-Westfield (8-1)
24​
Sandwich (5-4)
24​
Frankfort (6-4)
24​
Red Bud (6-3)
24​
Hope Acad (5-4)
4​
Dixon (8-1)
4​
Princeton (8-1)
4​
Bismarck-Henning (9-0)
4​
Althoff (8-1)
29​
Charleston (5-4)
29​
Clinton (5-4)
29​
Marian Cath-W (4-5)
29​
Tuscola (5-4)
13​
Manteno (7-2)
13​
Roxana (7-2)
13​
Arthur-Lovington (8-1)
13​
Rushville (7-2)
20​
Carterville (6-3)
20​
Unity-Tolono (6-3)
20​
Rockridge (6-3)
20​
Carrollton (6-3)
5​
East Richland (8-1)
5​
Roseville-Yorkwood (8-1)
5​
Tri-Valley (8-1)
5​
Calhoun (8-1)
28​
Effingham (5-4)
28​
Prairie Cent (5-4)
28​
Dwight (5-4)
28​
Brown Co (5-4)
12​
Boylan (7-2)
12​
Monticello (7-2)
12​
Johnston City (8-2)
12​
Salt Fork (7-2)
21​
Columbia (6-3)
21​
Benton (6-3)
21​
Westville (6-3)
21​
Wethersfield (6-3)
2​
Waterloo (8-1)
2​
Byron (9-0)
2​
Maroa-Forsyth (9-0)
2​
Leroy (9-0)
31​
Kewanee (5-4)
31​
Aurora Cent Cath (5-4)
31​
Athens (4-5)
31​
Aurora Chr (5-4)
15​
Macomb (7-2)
15​
DuQuoin (7-2)
15​
Chicago Chr (7-2)
15​
Nokomis (7-2)
18​
St Laurence (6-3)
18​
Montini (6-3)
18​
Carmi-White Co (7-2)
18​
Winchester (6-3)
7​
Rochester (7-2)
7​
Greenville (8-1)
7​
Vandalia (8-1)
7​
Greenfield (8-1)
26​
Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)
26​
King (6-3)
26​
Bloom'ton Cent Cath (5-4)
26​
Galena (5-4)
10​
Coal City (7-2)
10​
Bowen (8-1)
10​
Seneca (8-1)
10​
Sesser (8-1)
23​
Johnsburg (5-4)
23​
Mt Carmel (6-3)
23​
Virden (6-3)
23​
Cumberland (6-3)
3​
Wheaton Acad (8-1)
3​
Pecatonica (9-0)
3​
Farmington (9-0)
3​
Stark Co (9-0)
30​
Ridgewood (5-4)
30​
Carlinville (5-4)
30​
Unity-Mendon (4-5)
30​
Routt (5-4)
14​
Murphysboro (7-2)
14​
Paxton (7-2)
14​
Notre Dame-Quincy (7-2)
14​
Princeville (7-2)
19​
DePaul Col Prep (6-3)
19​
Peotone (6-3)
19​
Pearl City (6-3)
19​
Marquette-Ottawa (6-3)
6​
South Shore Intl (8-0)
6​
Eureka (8-1)
6​
Nashville (8-1)
6​
Camp Pt-Cent (8-1)
27​
Mt Zion (5-4)
27​
Genoa-Kingston (5-4)
27​
Erie-Prophetstown (5-4)
27​
Morrison (5-5)
11​
Richmond-Burton (7-2)
11​
Williamsville (7-2)
11​
Momence (8-1)
11​
Newman Cath (7-2)
22​
Phoenix Military (6-2)
22​
Olympia (6-3)
22​
Shelbyville (6-3)
22​
Dupo (6-3)

Projected Playoff Brackets based on Massey

Saw another thread on showing projected playoff brackets. Thought I would take a swing at it based on Massey collected data. So, here's how I am doing it:
  1. Take current record and add Massey Projected W's , rounding to integer (e.g. a team currently 4-2 with 2.3 projected additional wins is projected to finish 6-3)
  2. Use SoS as an estimate of how many opponent wins a team will collect in order to break ties from step 1. I can probably use the projections from step 1 to project opponents wins, but it's a bit more work than I feel like right now 🤷‍♂️
So, here we go...

8A7A6A5A
1​
Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
1​
Downers Grove-N (9-0)
1​
Cary-Grove (9-0)
1​
Sycamore (9-0)
32​
St Ignatius (4-5)
32​
Harlem (5-4)
32​
Eisenhower-BI (4-5)
32​
Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16​
Naperville-North (6-3)
16​
Glenbard East (7-2)
16​
Glenwood (6-3)
16​
Highland (6-3)
17​
Maine South (6-3)
17​
Addison Trail (7-2)
17​
Lemont (6-3)
17​
Metamora (6-3)
8​
Barrington (7-2)
8​
St Rita (7-2)
8​
Washington (7-2)
8​
Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
25​
Taft (6-3)
25​
Wheaton-North (5-4)
25​
Riverside-Brookfield (5-4)
25​
Marmion Acad (5-4)
9​
Sandburg (7-2)
9​
Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)
9​
Richards-OL (7-2)
9​
Peoria (7-2)
24​
Minooka (6-3)
24​
Bradley-Bourbonnais (6-3)
24​
Grant (5-4)
24​
Burlington Cent (5-4)
4​
Marist (8-1)
4​
Batavia (8-1)
4​
Libertyville (8-1)
4​
Morgan Park (8-1)
29​
Waubonsie Val (5-4)
29​
Andrew (5-4)
29​
Deerfield (4-5)
29​
Centralia (5-4)
13​
Downers Grove-S (7-2)
13​
Jacobs (7-2)
13​
Kennedy (7-2)
13​
Joliet Cath (6-3)
20​
Huntley (6-3)
20​
Prospect (6-3)
20​
Simeon (6-3)
20​
Glenbard South (6-3)
5​
Naperville Cent (8-1)
5​
Maine West (8-1)
5​
Kankakee (8-1)
5​
Triad (8-1)
28​
Plainfield North (5-4)
28​
Kenwood (5-4)
28​
Senn (5-4)
28​
Sterling (5-4)
12​
Palatine (7-2)
12​
Arlington Hts-Hersey (7-2)
12​
Mather (7-2)
12​
St Francis (6-3)
21​
Edwardsville (6-3)
21​
Rolling Meadows (6-3)
21​
Shepard (6-3)
21​
Calumet City-TFN (6-3)
2​
Oswego (9-0)
2​
Quincy (9-0)
2​
East St Louis (8-1)
2​
Prairie Ridge (8-1)
31​
Glenbard West (4-5)
31​
Willowbrook (5-4)
31​
East Moline (4-5)
31​
Payton Prep (5-4)
15​
Loyola Acad (6-3)
15​
Normal (7-2)
15​
Kaneland (6-3)
15​
Morris (6-3)
18​
Homewood-Flossmoor (6-3)
18​
Brother Rice (6-3)
18​
Crete Monee (6-3)
18​
Sacred Ht-Griffin (6-3)
7​
Fremd (8-1)
7​
Lincoln Park (8-1)
7​
Normal-Comm W (7-2)
7​
Nazareth Acad (7-2)
26​
Niles West (6-3)
26​
Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)
26​
Springfield (5-4)
26​
Hillcrest (5-4)
10​
York (7-2)
10​
St Charles-North (7-2)
10​
Bloomington (7-2)
10​
Grayslake North (7-2)
23​
South Elgin (6-3)
23​
Hoffman Estates (6-3)
23​
Lake Zurich (5-4)
23​
Corliss (6-3)
3​
Aurora-West (9-0)
3​
Hononegah (9-0)
3​
Geneva (8-1)
3​
Rochelle (8-1)
30​
Joliet West (5-4)
30​
Schaumburg (5-4)
30​
Hinsdale South (4-5)
30​
Westinghouse (5-4)
14​
Stevenson (7-2)
14​
Pekin (7-2)
14​
Lake Forest (6-3)
14​
Benet Acad (6-3)
19​
Warren Twp (6-3)
19​
Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)
19​
Oak Forest (6-3)
19​
Marion (6-3)
6​
Lyons (8-1)
6​
Young (8-1)
6​
Belvidere North (8-1)
6​
Antioch (8-1)
27​
Glenbrook South (5-4)
27​
Lincoln Way West (5-4)
27​
Fenton (5-4)
27​
Freeport (5-4)
11​
Plainfield South (7-2)
11​
Fenwick (7-2)
11​
Wauconda (7-2)
11​
Woodstock North (7-2)
22​
Belleville-East (6-3)
22​
Moline (6-3)
22​
Dunlap (6-3)
22​
Jacksonville (6-3)

JCA @ MC

JCA is a heavy run offense

Other than Iggy (option) not many teams have had a lot of success doing that against MC

I just watched a te BR vs MC game
- QB 2 did what he was supposed to when it counted the most
- matched down the field and scored on MC’s last drive which included converting more than 1 4th down.

I predict a low scoring game with the nod going to MC

6A is very interesting

Must be a rule change, a friend of mine kid plays on one of these teams and showed me a email from the coach saying he was petitioning to move up to 6A and it would be for 2 years. My assumption they petitioned because of all the privates that hit their multiplier and success ceilings at 5A, the thought is they could have better chance at 6A, good luck on that.

In my opion this move is all about if they can have a chance to be competitive in the 2nd playoff game.
All.... Yes when you petiton to play up the rule is it must be for two years at the start of the new two year enrollment average cycle. Which would start in 2025. I suppose the mystery will solved and answered when the 256 postseason qualifiers are announced and slotted in their respective classes a few weeks fron now. Ratsy
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If my life wasn’t so busy today…..

I genuinely look forward to and appreciate your posts every week but as a dad of 3 including a 1.5 year old Alstott of my own I understand how lucky/busy you are it’s the best thing I can say I’ve ever done. I hope you can find some time and if you can’t do it all as a Naz Fan I have a coupon for a free bloomin’ onion with purchase of entree from Outback with your name on it if you can at least do 5a. Coupon may or may not be expired but I’m sure they will honor it 🤷‍♂️
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